Category: US Bonds
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Thursday, June 07, 2012
U.S. Treasury Bond Markets Black Hole Dynamics / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Jim_Willie_CB
Man-made financial phenomena imitate nature, but more importantly they are subject to the powerful laws of economic nature. The Wall Street financial engineers have built vast structures, which tragically are crumbling and soon will fall to the ground. Vast illusory wealth will be lost, never truly garnered. The fiat currency system has required tremendous efforts not only to build the financial skyscrapers ever higher each year, but also to provide support structures that prevent their topple. With the aid of the subservient press, an illusion of wealth, prosperity, and stability has been fashioned and defended. It is all being blown away by the powerful storms known as the global financial crisis. The term has even earned an acronym for the popular lexicon GFC. My alternative view is that the global monetary war is in full swing, World War III with the USDollar at the epicenter of the conflict and pecuniary violence. A few years ago in June 2005, the Jackass penned an obscure article entitled "Financial Market Physics" just for amusement. Thanks to Vronsky and his intrepid work, the Gold-Eagle archive still lives (for old article CLICK HERE). In it was described momentum, pendulums, traction, leverage, resistance, support, inertia, coiled springs, meltdowns, high versus low pressure differentials, flow dynamics, imbalances, and the infamous black hole. The final concept is of extreme relevance today.
Tuesday, June 05, 2012
U.S. Treasury Bond 10 Year Yield Could Drop to 1% / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Money_Morning
Keith Fitz-Gerald writes:
In the wake of Friday's disastrous jobs number, 10-year Treasury Note yields finally fell through the 1.5% level, trading as low 1.44% on the day.
That plunge took many traders, talking heads and politicians by surprise.
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Saturday, June 02, 2012
Did Interest Swaps Drive Down U.S. Treasury Bond Yields - Beware! / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Andrew_Butter
Jim Willie alias The Jackass has a theory interest rate swaps created speculative demand for U.S. Treasuries and that drove yields down…in other words there is a bubble.
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article34819.html
If there is a bubble it will bust eventually; The Jackass says that could be catastrophic because the notional value is so huge.
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Thursday, May 24, 2012
U.S. Treasury Bond Teetering Tower Of Babel, Fed Stuck At 0% Forever / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Jim_Willie_CB
The Biblical story is told of a tower built ever higher in order to achieve contact with the heavens, lest they be scattered upon the earth. They were scattered when the tower fell. Fast forward to today, where the earth has a multitude of tribes, languages, and several major alphabets. When the Lehman Brothers failure occurred, and the Fannie Mae and AIG activities were to be concealed under court orders, the land turned barren, and a financial plague befell the Western nations led by the United States. They were after all, the keepers of the ark (printing press for USDollars). But a plague of debt locusts was cast upon the US nation, with annual $1.5 trillion deficits. The Americans in their unending arrogance, chose to speak from the tower top and to proclaim 0% forever, suspending gravity. They have attempted to force free money to finance their USGovt debts, to preserve power, to ensure privilege, but in doing so they defy nature in testing gravity itself.
Sunday, May 13, 2012
U.S. Treasury Bond Market Forecast for Coming Week / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Manas_Banerji
French election outcome was not much disturbing but Greece is again creating the fear due to their inconclusive result or it will be better to say that Greek voters voted against the bailouts and those austerity measures. German minister’s remark about Greece may fuel lots of calculations. Market is speculating that Greece may quit Euro but here the important thing is what the Euro zone authorities are thinking! Earlier I was confused about holding back of 1bn euros of rescue money but as situation is developing, now it is quite understandable.
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Saturday, May 12, 2012
Whe Are U.S. Treasury Bond Yields Going? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Tony_Pallotta
As the US Treasury curve sits near all-time highs the question on every investors mind is what happens next. Can Treasury yields move lower? In real terms when adjusted for inflation yields are negative. In other words you are losing money on an inflation adjusted basis to lend your money to the US Government.
Saturday, May 05, 2012
U.S. Treasury Bond Market Forecast for Coming Week / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Manas_Banerji
Some sections of the market were looking for further stimulus by ECB or an assurance from Draghi. I think that type of assurance would act as a boost for market. But here Draghi has different approach, as he thinks that liquidity is abundant in the Euro zone. This time Draghi emphasized more on Growth, as I said in my past reviews that I am not sure how growth will come with lots of austerity measures and cuts! ECB hold its interest rate, which was already discounted.
Thursday, May 03, 2012
U.S. Treasury Bonds are on the Move / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mike_Paulenoff
In the aftermath of the very disappointing ADP Jobs Report, the S&P 500 and its ETF, the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY), returned to revisit Tuesday morning's pre-spike low, which so far has contained the selling pressure. Meanwhile, the iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), which tends to move opposite the equity indices (as equity prices decline, bond prices benefit from a flight to safety response), is climbing and appears poised to take off into a new up-leg, depending on investor reaction to Friday's jobs data.
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Wednesday, May 02, 2012
Are Junk Bonds About to Become a Victim of Their Own Popularity? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Money_Morning
Don Miller writes:
In our current low-interest-rate environment, many investors are widening their search for more income by buying junk.
Junk bonds, that is. More formally known as high-yield bonds - junk bonds have been on a tear lately.
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Wednesday, April 25, 2012
What if Rip van Winkle was a Bond Vigilante? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mario_Innecco
The U.S. fiscal situation never ceases to amaze us here at forsoundmoney. With that in mind we have looked at some very interesting data and comparisons.
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Tuesday, April 24, 2012
Where to Put Your Money When the U.S. Treasury Bond Market Bubble Bursts / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Money_Morning
Martin Hutchinson writes:
With interest rates at near-record low levels it appears that the only way for rates to go is up.
As the U.S. economy moderately strengthens, that means the bond bubble will begin to leak. Even darker, the bubble might just burst altogether.
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Thursday, April 12, 2012
Whither U.S. Treasury Bond Yields After Operation Twist? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Asha_Bangalore
The Fed’s monetary policy accommodation in the form of two rounds of quantitative easing (QE) and the current Operation Twist (OT) that is underway have provided support for economic activity and helped to stabilize the financial system. Operation Twist will be completed as of June 2012. QE1 and QE2 led to higher Treasury note yields followed by a reduction in yields as the two programs were completed (see Chart 1). Operation Twist has succeeded in establishing a firm floor for rates, but on the expiration of the program as of June 2012, the future is uncertain.
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Sunday, March 25, 2012
U.S. Treasury Bond 10-Year Yield Is Heading Up Above 6% / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Andrew_Butter
The last time the yield on the 10-Year US Treasury dipped below 2% was in 1941; just before (not just after), the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor.
Perhaps then the recent 1.8% low was not just because of Euro-refugees, perhaps we are on the cusp of another Black Swan tail-risk potentially as devastating as World War II? Or perhaps there is another explanation?
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Wednesday, March 21, 2012
Peak Imbalances Are Falling, New Bear Market in Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Fred_Sheehan
The topic at hand is the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond, its falling price, and consequent rising yield. The ten year was trading at a 2.03% yield on March 9 and rose to 2.38% on March 19, 2012. These things happen and the ten-year may fall back to a price and yield that satisfies central bankers and Wall Street. Nevertheless, the era of artificially low government bond yields is coming to a close.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 19, 2012
Is There a Bubble in U.S. Treasury Bonds? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mike_Shedlock
... Explaining the 2011 Treasury Rally (It's Not What You Think); Where to From Here?
People have been calling a bubble in treasuries for at least a decade. The shocking result, especially to hyperinflationists, has been a stair-step decline in yields for 30 years. That's quite a long time.
Here is a chart going back 20 years from Steen Jakobsen at Saxo bank in Denmark.
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Sunday, March 18, 2012
U.S. Treasury Bond Market Sell Off / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Tony_Pallotta
Slightly off topic Macro View this week as I really want to study the movement in treasury. The 10 year treasury yield is currently 2.30% which from an historical standpoint is very low. But a 33 basis point rise in one week is significant (100 basis points equal 1%). If the sell off in treasury accelerates things can get out of hand in very short order.
Sunday, March 18, 2012
The Fed Gets Creative, Buying Long-term Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Alasdair_Macleod
According to a story in Wednesday’s Wall Street Journal, the US Federal Reserve is considering buying long-term Treasury and mortgage bonds in return for deposits held at the Fed. There has been no comment from the Fed and the story might have been no more than a trial balloon, in which case Bernanke and Co may be considering skewing the yield curve so that long-term bonds are less attractive than the time-preferences set by the market.
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Friday, March 16, 2012
Lesson from Tracking the U.S. 10-Treasury Note Yield / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Asha_Bangalore
The 10-year U.S Treasury note yield is trading at 2.28% as of this writing, little changed from 2.29% yesterday. But, this is a 25 bps uptick in two trading days, given the March 12 closing quote of 2.04%. The reasons listed for the sharp sell-off are – the less dovish policy statement of the Fed, February retail sales numbers, the success of the stress test of the largest 19 banks of the nation, the resolution of the Greek debt crisis, the improvement of employment conditions seen in the February employment report, the optimism from equity price rally, and so forth. The main takeaway is that as the list of positive economic signals grows, long rates move up in a hurry.
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Monday, February 13, 2012
Bullish Set-up for Treasury Bonds TLT ETF / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mike_Paulenoff
My near- and intermediate-term work indicate that the iShares Barclays 20 Year Treasury ETF (TLT) established a significant corrective low at 114.62 on Feb 9 and that since then the price structure is doing the work to create a powerfully bullish technical set-up that should propel it towards 120 in a hurry.
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Wednesday, February 08, 2012
Bell Rings for U.S. Treasury Bond Bubble / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Michael_Pento
They always tell you no one rings a bell when a market top or bottom is reached. But a bell is now ringing for the end of the thirty-year bull market in U.S. debt. And ironically, the bell ringer is our very own U.S. Treasury!Read full article... Read full article...