Category: US Bonds
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Monday, August 29, 2011
How to Protect and Profit From U.s. Treasury Bond Market Crash / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Money_Morning
Martin Hutchinson writes:
By now, you've probably taken note of the growing bubble in Treasury bonds.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond fell below 2% for the first time in 50 years in the wake of the U.S. credit rating downgrade.
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Monday, August 29, 2011
PIMCO Missed the Trade of the Year in the U.S. Treasury Bond Market / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: EconMatters
PIMCO who specializes in Bonds, having the largest bond fund in the world could not have been more wrong about an asset class, which is surprising considering their experience in this sector. Bill Gross`s official declaration that his firm was shorting the US Treasury Market on April 11th of this year to the day marked the literal double bottom in price/high in yield for the year, and it has been one heck of a one-way trade in the opposite direction ever since.
Monday, August 29, 2011
What happens when the U.S. Bond Market Loses its Patience? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Aftab_Singh
The concomitant surges in the dollar prices of gold and the US treasury note seem to have got many market participants scratching their heads. For isn’t gold an ‘inflation asset’ and the treasury note a ‘deflation asset’? Aren’t they supposed to be antagonistic to one another? We square this price action by noting that the means of the currency skeptic are distinctly peculiar in this post-Bretton Woods experiment — it matters that the Federal Reserve note is by and large ‘backed’ by US government securities and gold. That being said, our hunch is that this price action is a relatively temporary phenomenon; for whereas gold remains intact regardless of an increasingly precarious stock of irredeemable claims upon it, US government securities do not. We believe that the current tolerance of the US bond market should be regarded as the last gift from above. Here I outline why a world with an intolerant bond market might not be that pleasant.
Friday, August 19, 2011
U.S. Treasury 10 Year Bonds Bubble At 2% Yield, US Nominal GDP Growth Heading Down Towards 0% / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Andrew_Butter
I’m a little slow, but perhaps someone can tell me what happened to the crowd who were jumping up and down screaming that US Treasuries were a bubble when the yield was 3.7%? If that was a bubble in 2009 and 2010 then 2.0% has to be an UBER-BUBBLE so you would think those guys would be having foaming-at-the mouth fits by now, I don’t know what happened to them, perhaps they all got sore throats?
Thursday, August 11, 2011
China Downgrades U.S. Treasury Bonds to A+, Is Anybody Listening? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Gary_Dorsch
Of the big-3 credit rating agencies, only the S&P rating agency had the courage and fortitude to speak the truth, about the severe deterioration of America’s financial status. S&P shocked the political establishment in Washington, by following through with its threat to downgrade US Treasury debt to AA+ on the evening of August 5th. S&P added that the US Treasury debt could be downgraded further, if the crooked and inept politicians in Washington haven’t taken any meaningful moves to cut the size of its mounting debt.
Wednesday, August 10, 2011
Marc Faber: Long-term U.S. Treasury Bond Market is a Bubble, Buy Gold / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Bloomberg
Marc Faber, publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom report, appeared on Bloomberg Television's "Street Smart" with Bloomberg TV anchors Carol Massar and Matt Miller today.
Speaking on the phone from Thailand, Faber said that the markets are very oversold, the Fed is "underestimating the severity of the economic downturn" and that gold is the best investment right now.
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Tuesday, August 09, 2011
Trend-Ending Pattern in U.S. Treasury TBTs / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Purely from a near-term pattern perspective, the most recent down-leg in the ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT) from 28.43 to this morning's low at 26.69 appears to be carving out a falling wedge formation, which usually is a "trend-ending" pattern -- in this case, a down-trend ending pattern.
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Thursday, August 04, 2011
QE3 Coming Soon? Treasury TIPS Say No / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Tony_Pallotta
Using the Treasury TIPS (Treasury Inflation Protected Securities) one can determine inflation expectation simply by subtracting the treasury yield for the same maturity. As an example.
10 Year TIPS currently yields 0.29% (inflation adjusted yield)
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Monday, July 25, 2011
The $1 Billion Armageddon Trade Placed Against the United States Bond Market / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Money_Morning
Jack Barnes writes :
Someone dropped a bomb on the bond market Thursday - a $1 billion Armageddon trade betting the United States will lose its AAA credit rating.
In one moment, an invisible trader placed a single trade that moved the most liquid debt market in the world.
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Tuesday, July 19, 2011
U.S. Treasury Spreads Widen on Debt Concerns; Bond Market Revolt Awaits QE3 / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mike_Shedlock
long-end of the treasury curve is acting sick, smack in the face of a clearly slowing global economy.
Friday, July 01, 2011
Time Table for the Coming U.S. Treasury Bond Market Crash, Moves Every Investor Must Make / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Money_Morning
Martin Hutchinson writes:
Since last November, the U.S. Federal Reserve has been buying U.S. Treasury bonds at a rate of about $75 billion a month. That's part of Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke's "QE2" program, under which the central bank was to buy $600 billion of the government bonds.
But QE2 ended yesterday (Thursday), meaning the Fed will no longer be a big buyer of Treasury bonds.
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Thursday, June 09, 2011
U.S. Longer-Term Interest Rates Surprise Rise Coming / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Let's have a look at the bond market from the perspective of 10-year yield, which apart from signs that "the world is falling apart economically," nonetheless, is warning me that longer-term interest rates in the U.S. are vulnerable to a surprise on the upside.
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Sunday, June 05, 2011
CME Lowers Treasury Bond Futures Margins, Signals Shift In Market Direction / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Tony_Pallotta
The CME has been busy the past few months "adjusting" margins. I emphasize adjusting because I suspect it is not in the interest of protecting the speculator from financial ruin or ensuring true price discovery by removing excess speculation.
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Friday, June 03, 2011
U.S. Treasury Bond Market Bears Continue to Lose / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Adam_Brochert
I understand fundamental convictions when investing. Fundamental convictions have caused me to lose lots of money in the past. What is the point of being intellectually superior in your own mind and then losing money trading? Does it really make you feel better in the end to "be right" and lose money? Personally, I have decided it is better to be agnostic and make money. It has been a journey, believe me.
Thursday, June 02, 2011
Near-term Correction in U.S. Treasury Bond Market Yield / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mike_Paulenoff
If the upmove in 10-year yield from the October 2010 low at 2.33% to the February 2011 high at 3.74% represents the first upleg of a new bull phase (higher yield), then all of the action since the February high is a correction that should be bought ahead of a resumption of the prior upmove.
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Monday, May 30, 2011
Shorting U.S. Treasury Bonds, Wither TBT / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Peter_Navarro
A loyal reader asked me about TBT – the exchange traded fund to short the long bond. As you may remember, I was very bullish on TBT last year; but it turned out to be one of my worst trades.
The best thing to do when a trade goes the wrong way is to learn from it. In this case, TBT serves a dual function for me – as both a potential trade as well as a leading indicator of the business cycle.
Thursday, May 26, 2011
Eyeing the UltraShort Treasury TNX ETF / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mike_Paulenoff
My near and intermediate-term technical work on the 10-year yield is warning me that the correction in yield off of the Feb 9 high at 3.74% is nearing completion ahead of the initiation of a new, powerful upleg.
Let's notice that all of the action during the past two weeks has carved out a "falling wedge" formation within the lower portion of the larger, corrective pattern that has dominated the price action since early February.
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Wednesday, May 18, 2011
Gross Uses Sly Semantics to Hide Shorts on Government Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis
Bill Gross, manager of PIMCOs Total Return Fund, the largest mutual fund in the world, claimed that reports indicating he was net short on US Treasuries were apparently part of a gross misunderstanding. Having reported this news to our readers, we thought it absolutely important to continue following up on this story until it reaches its conclusion.
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Wednesday, May 18, 2011
U.S. Treasury Bond Market Forecast, Inflation Is In The Heir / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: David_Petch
Ah, it is May, the snow has recessed to uncover nature waiting to beam with green radiance. Spring is in the air. On the same note, financial shenanigans of yesteryear are finally starting to come home to show inflation...inflation is in the air just as noticeably. This article is going to focus on "Inflation is in the Heir". Barrack Obama is a very intelligence speaker, intelligent and possess charisma. However, they could have Mickey Mouse or the Pope as the US President, or any other nation for that matter and there is nothing that can be done to prevent the coming inflationary wave...it is all part of a very long economic cycle.
Thursday, April 28, 2011
Plummeting U.S. Dollar, A New Wave of Treasuries and Toxic Waste / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Bob_Chapman
We believe there will be something similar to a QE3 by another name and the Fed will probably have to create some $2.5 trillion to buy Treasuries, Agencies, and toxic waste and perhaps inject funds into the economy. Japan certainly won’t be a buyer and probably will be a seller. China has indicated that they won’t be purchasers in the future either. The question also arises concerning the continued purchase of these securities by countries in the oil producing Gulf States, which are in turmoil. The three countries make up 45% of Treasury purchases.