Category: US Bonds

Monday, April 25, 2011

Warning: Investors Still Confident in the US Bond Market / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Bill_Bonner

First let us catch up with a news report from earlier this week. Bloomberg:

April 18 (Bloomberg) – Standard & Poor’s put a “negative” outlook on the AAA credit rating of the US, citing a “material risk” the nation’s leaders will fail to deal with rising budget deficits and debt.

Thursday, April 21, 2011

How to Dodge the Coming U.S. Treasury Bond Market Crash / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Money_Morning

Martin Hutchinson writes: We're on a collision course with the worst bond market collapse in decades.

The warning signs are as clear as day.

Monday, April 18, 2011

U.S. Sovereign Debt Downgrade, S&P Late to the Party Once Again / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Peter_Schiff

The only thing more ridiculous than S&P's too little too late semi-downgrade of U.S. sovereign debt was the market's severe reaction to the announcement. Has S&P really added anything to the debate that wasn't already widely known? In any event, S&P's statement amounts to a wake up call to anyone who has somehow managed to sleepwalk through the unprecedented debt explosion of the last few years.

Tuesday, April 12, 2011

Bill Gross, Master of Monetary Psy-Ops / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Ashvin_Pandurangi

Every so often, and more often than not, a rumor emerges in the blogosphere about a significant development, seemingly adverse to the interests of the U.S. federal government, being manufactured by the government to further solidify their control over the masses. Sometimes these rumors are plainly absurd on their surface, and sometimes they are just too perfect to be true. The nature of these "psy-ops" is that they are nearly impossible to verify with any direct evidence until well after the fact, so we must rely on indirect logical analysis and a bit of intuition.

Monday, March 21, 2011

Municipal Bonds Ignorance and Opportunity / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Fred_Sheehan

Following are some of my remarks prepared for Allen & Company's Fifteenth Annual Arizona Conference. The discussion, "Munis and the Euro: Crises or Opportunities?", took place on March 8, 2011. The moderator was Senator Bill Bradley, Allen & Co., New York. Participants were Dick Ravitch, Ravitch, Rice & Company, New York; David Kotok, Cumberland Advisors, Sarasota, Florida; Uri Dadash, The Carnegie Endowment, Washington, DC.; and Frederick J. Sheehan.

Friday, March 18, 2011

US Treasury Yield BubbleomiX Forecast: 10 Year Bonds Still Targeting 3% / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Andrew_Butter

Three months ago I wrote a piece saying that the 10-Year was heading for 3% by 20th February. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article25128.html

 I got a note from someone who is right more often than me saying he had it pegged at 3.8% . I’ll call that a draw although I noticed I made a mistake on the timing, what I really meant was April 20th; I’ll put that down to dyslexia.

Friday, March 18, 2011

Japan Quake Shakes U.S. Treasury Bond Market Get Ready for Financial Meltdown / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: LEAP

Beyond its tragic human consequences (1), the terrible disaster that has just hit Japan weakens the shaky US Treasury Bond market a little more. In the GEAB No. 52, our team had already explained how the sequence of Arab revolutions, this fall of the “petro-dollar” wall (2), would translate during 2011 into the cessation of the massive purchases of US Treasury Bonds by the Gulf States. In this issue, we anticipate that the sudden shock experienced by the Japanese economy will lead not only to the halt in US T-Bond purchases by Japan, but it will force the authorities in Tokyo to make substantial sales of a significant portion of their US Treasury Bond reserves to finance the enormous cost of stabilization, reconstruction and revival of the Japanese economy (3).

Thursday, March 17, 2011

Japanese Fallout May Hit U.S. Treasury Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: John_Browne

Japan is facing two meltdowns in the wake of its devastating earthquake. The first, and more critical, is the meltdown at the Fukushima I Nuclear Plant, 150 miles north of Tokyo. Surely, this is the greater near-term threat. But long-term, another threat looms, having to do with the Japanese government's response to the former.

Tuesday, March 15, 2011

U.S. Government Evermore Reliant on Foreign Investors to Finance Debt / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Kieran_Osborne

Despite the Fed recently surpassing China as the largest owner of U.S. government debt, the U.S. remains heavily reliant on foreigners to fund the government’s ongoing fiscal largess. Geithner’s Treasury Department has firmly focused new issues at the mid to longer end of the yield curve (since Geithner assumed office, the average length of marketable Treasury debt held publicly has increased by nearly one year). Despite the Treasury taking advantage of the ultra-low interest rate and funding environment, there are substantial refinancing issues over the near term; moreover, many of these maturing issues are foreign owned. Should sovereign fiscal concerns spread to the U.S., in concert with the evermore attractive interest rates offered internationally, refinancing the U.S. debt could become increasingly difficult if foreign investors turn their backs.

Tuesday, March 15, 2011

Why U.S. Treasury Bonds Are No Longer the Interest Rate Market Bellwether / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Money_Morning

Shah Gilani writes: Divining the direction of interest rates used to be a lot easier.

With the Federal Funds Rate, policymakers at the U.S. Federal Reserve would indicate precisely what they wanted the overnight lending rate between big banks to be. And the prices of U.S. Treasury securities of all maturities fell in line like obedient soldiers.

Saturday, March 12, 2011

It May Be Time To Buy U.S. Treasury Bonds Again! / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Sy_Harding

Slowing economic growth is usually a positive for bonds.

Bonds are bought as a safe haven when global stock markets are in corrections.

Thursday, March 10, 2011

Pimco Dumps All U.S. Treasury Bonds, Six Reasons Why They Got it Wrong / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Mike_Shedlock

Pimco's Bill Gross has been dumping US government debt in favor of other alternatives including emerging-market opportunities. Looking ahead, I think it's more likely to be a bullish setup for treasuries than not.

First, please consider the news.

Thursday, March 10, 2011

That Ticking Sound You Hear is the U.S. Bond Market.... / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Money_Morning

Keith Fitz-Gerald writes: Many investors are afraid of inflation because they understand the run-up in prices will take a big bite out of their wallets - and their buying power.

While that's a valid concern, I'm much more worried about one of the other possible fallout effects of the expected inflationary surge - the potential for the worst global bond rout in nearly 20 years.

Wednesday, March 09, 2011

U.S. Treasury Bond 10 Year Index Elliott Wave Analysis / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: David_Petch

The daily chart of the 10 Year US Treasury Index is shown below, with upper and lower Bollinger bands in close proximity to the current price. Full stochastics 1, 2 and 3 are shown below in order of descent, with the %K beneath the %D in all three instances. I illustrated the short-term Elliott Wave count, which clearly indicates a change of trend. This is a real trend definer, because gold does well with rising interest rates (not year over year inflation).

Friday, March 04, 2011

Trading the U.S. Treasury Bond Market With Success / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: readtheticker

If you are an avid reader of financial articles, you will have seen many stock charts with all types of technical analysis drawn upon it. You name it, you're seen it, trend lines, moving averages, oscillators, Elliot wave counts, etc. Yet you fail to see a simple technique that assisted a young trader to make millions.

Thursday, March 03, 2011

How to Profit From the Muni Bond Market Collapse and Subsequent Rebound / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Money_Morning

Shah Gilani writes: Hedge funds are stalking the $2.9 trillion municipal-bond market like an alley cat stalks a mouse.

In their public statements, Wall Street shills continue to dismiss warnings about "deadbeat states" - and the horrific impact that budgetary shortfalls at the state and local level are going to have on this stodgy slice of the debt market. Anyone who tries to buck this Wall Street view is ridiculed and dismissed as a financial Cassandra.

Tuesday, March 01, 2011

China Holdings of U.S. Treasuries Revised Up An Unsustainable 30% / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Mike_Shedlock

Annual revisions released Monday show that China's holding of US treasuries is 30% greater than reported just weeks ago.

I am not surprised given that persistent rumors of China dumping treasuries made little mathematical sense from a balance of trade standpoint. Instead, I suggested China was accumulating treasuries via trading desks in the UK. We now see that is precisely the case.

Saturday, February 26, 2011

U.S. Treasury Bonds TLT Technical Take / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Guy_Lerner

It is my belief that we have seen the high in long term Treasury yields at least for a while, and I expressed this opinion in yesterday's article on Treasury yields. Today, I thought it would be instructive to look at the bullish technical patterns developing in the i - Shares Lehman 20 plus Year Treasury Fund (symbol: TLT).

Thursday, February 24, 2011

Long Term U.S. Treasury Yields Heading Lower / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Guy_Lerner

Lost in all the noise about crude oil this week and its effect on the economic recovery (i.e., the equity rally) has been the top in Treasury yields. This article will cover the technical aspects of the Ultra Short Lehman 20 plus Year Treasury Fund (symbol: TBT).

Thursday, February 24, 2011

Three Ways to Dodge the Looming Bear Market in U.S. Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Money_Morning

Keith Fitz-Gerald writes: Put 100 investors in a room and most will tell you how worried they are that the still-bullish U.S. stock market is going to betray them for a third time in slightly more than a decade.

But I submit that it’s the bonds that these folks are right now holding that should be the real focus of their concern - and for one very good reason: Most investors view the global bond market as a stodgy source of fixed income, when it’s actually the largest, most complex and most sensitive capital market in the world today.