Category: China Economy
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Saturday, February 07, 2015
China Makes the Right Move / Interest-Rates / China Economy
By: Steve_H_Hanke
Yesterday, China’s Central Bank reduced bank reserve requirements for large banks by 50 basis points to 19.5%. The Chinese know that the nominal level of national income is determined by the magnitude of the money supply. They also know that banks produce the lion’s share of China’s money. Indeed, banks produce 77% of China’s M2 money.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, November 24, 2014
Where Is China Economy On The Map Exactly? / Economics / China Economy
By: Raul_I_Meijer
A lot of people these days vent their opinions on what’s happening with the Chinese economy, and the opinions are so all over the place they could hardly be more different. Which is interesting, to say the least. Apparently it’s still very hard to understand what does happen ‘over there’.
And I don’t at all mean to suggest that I would know better than Morgan Stanley’s former Asia go-to-man Stephen Roach, or hedge funder Hugh Hendry, or Bob Davis, who just spent 4 years in the country for the Wall Street Journal, or Gwynn Guilford at Quartz, or local Reuters correspondents. It’s just that between them, they disagree so vastly you’d think they’re playing a game with your mind.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, October 29, 2014
As the Eurozone Economy Stalls, China Cuts the Red Tape / Economics / China Economy
By: Frank_Holmes
Forty-four percent. That's the alarming unemployment rate for those aged 15 to 25 in Italy, where I traveled recently to meet with other global chief executives and business leaders.
The reason for Italy's high youth unemployment? Tortuous red tape, high taxation and thuggish unions. Many of the CEOs at the event I attended noted that Italy is mired in unionization. This has created a restrictive jobs market that crowds out well-educated, aspirational young people, many of whom are forced to flee their homes and seek work elsewhere.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, September 05, 2014
What does a “good” Chinese Economic adjustment look like? / Economics / China Economy
By: John_Mauldin
People of privilege will always risk their complete destruction rather than surrender any material part of their advantage. Intellectual myopia, often called stupidity, is no doubt a reason. But the privileged also feel that their privileges, however egregious they may seem to others, are a solemn, basic, God-given right. The sensitivity of the poor to injustice is a trivial thing compared with that of the rich. - John Galbraith, The Age of Uncertainty
Thursday, September 04, 2014
Urbanization and Demographics Could Skew China's Economic Rebalancing / Economics / China Economy
By: STRATFOR
China's urban population may grow by as many as 230 million people in the next 15 years. But most growth will take place not in metropolises like Beijing, Shanghai and Chongqing but in the myriad small- and medium-sized satellite cities around them. And as residents flock to these cities, China's working-age population will begin to decline, and its elderly population will grow dramatically.
Together, these processes will underpin major changes not only in China's overall economic structure, but also in the financial, fiscal and political relationship between central and local government. The added burdens facing small- and medium-sized cities, especially those located deep inside China that are sequestered from mainstream global trade, will be substantial and perhaps socially and politically destabilizing.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, August 14, 2014
China's Credit Slowdown Raises Concerns About Overall Economic Health / Economics / China Economy
By: STRATFOR
New economic data released by China's National Bureau of Statistics on Aug. 13 shows the supply of credit to the Chinese economy expanded by only $44.3 billion in July, the slowest pace in almost six years. To be precise, credit expanded at the slowest pace since October 2008, the month after Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy and the month before the Chinese government launched an economic stimulus program that sheltered China's economy from the worst effects of the global financial crisis. That program also locked China into a growth model grounded in the intimate bond between government-led credit expansion and housing and infrastructure construction -- one that the Chinese government is now struggling, against time and at the risk of crisis, to escape.
Tuesday, August 12, 2014
China Economy Transformation or Bust, Part 2 / Economics / China Economy
By: John_Mauldin
In last week’s Thoughts from the Frontline (“Transformation or Bust”), my young colleague Worth Wray and I continued our groundbreaking series exploring the risks posed by China’s rapid private sector debt growth and its consumption-repressing, investment-heavy growth model that is quickly running out of steam. China is the true conundrum in the global economy. It is an outlier in the history of development, with no true analogues. And while there is much to be appreciative of and admired about China, there are clear danger signals.
Monday, August 04, 2014
China Transformation or Bust / Economics / China Economy
By: John_Mauldin
China continues to be front and center on my list of concerns, even moreso than the latest Federal Reserve press release or fluctuation in the Dow (although you should pay attention). I believe China is the single biggest risk to world economic equilibrium, even larger than Japan or Europe. This week my young associate Worth Wray provides us with a keenly insightful essay on what is currently happening in China. I will admit to not having written about China very much in the past five years, primarily because, prior to Worth’s coming to work with me I really had no secure understanding of what was happening there. I know some readers may be surprised, but I really don’t like to write about things I have no understanding of. Worth has helped me focus. (It helps that he studied Mandarin and lived in China for a while, and is obsessed with China.)
Wednesday, June 11, 2014
Peak Pollution: China Aims For The Top So It Can Go Down / Economics / China Economy
By: OilPrice_Com
City-dwelling Chinese may still be choking on smog, but amid all the haze, China may turning a corner in its fight on pollution. Top Chinese officials have hinted at the fact that China is working hard to achieve "peak" greenhouse gas emissions, which may come sooner than observers expect. "Peak pollution" refers to the point at which a developing country's economy reaches a high enough level of production to ensure it will continue to grow even as it begins to work on reducing pollution rates.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, June 10, 2014
Can China's Central Planners Revive China’s Economic Miracle? / Economics / China Economy
By: John_Mauldin
For years, when asked whether I thought China would experience a hard landing, I would simply answer, “I don't understand China. Making a prediction would be pretending that I did, so I can’t.” The problem is that today China is the most significant macroeconomic wildcard in the global economy. To understand both the risks and the potentials for the future you have to reach some understanding of what is happening in China today. Last week we started a two-part series on what my young associate Worth Wray and I feel is the significant systemic risk that China poses to global growth.
Tuesday, June 10, 2014
China Economy Leads the World in Green Energy, Gaming and Gambling Markets / Economics / China Economy
By: Frank_Holmes
Last month, Xian Liang, co-portfolio manager of our China Region Fund (USCOX), attended the 19th CLSA China Forum in Beijing. There he and hundreds of other global attendees were given the opportunity to meet with representatives from Chinese corporations, some of which U.S. Global owns. Xian also managed to get a sense of how the nation's recent changes in consumer behavior and governmental policy reforms might affect its investment outlook. Although China remains an emerging market, it has lately taken a number of considerable strides to position itself as one of the world's most attractive places to invest.
Sunday, June 01, 2014
China Debt - Looking at the Middle Kingdom with Fresh Eyes / Economics / China Economy
By: John_Mauldin
I am writing this introductory note from London during a layover on my way to Rome, and I’ll append a personal ending tonight after I finally make my way back from dinner to the hotel.
One of the few consensus ideas that I took away from the Strategic Investment Conference is that China has the potential to become a real problem. It seemed to me that almost everyone who addressed the topic was either seriously alarmed at the extent of China’s troubles or merely very worried. Perhaps it was the particular group of speakers we had, but no one was sanguine. If you recall, a few weeks back I introduced my young colleague and protégé Worth Wray to you; and his inaugural Thoughts from the Frontline focused on China, a topic on which he is well-versed, having lived and studied there. Our conversations often center on China and emerging markets (and we tend to talk and write to each other a lot). While I’m on the road, Worth is once again visiting China in this week’s letter, summing up our research and contributing his own unique style and passion. I think regular TFTF readers are going to enjoy Worth’s occasional missives and will want to see more of them over time. Now, let’s turn it over to my able young Cajun friend.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, May 27, 2014
In a Flash, China Economy Looks Strong / Economics / China Economy
By: Frank_Holmes
If you want to know where the world economy is headed, there is one number that I believe investors should focus on: the HSBC China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI).
Last week, the preliminary flash PMI for May came in at 49.7, beating Bloomberg’s consensus of 48.3.
Saturday, May 17, 2014
China Economy Countdown to Crisis? / Economics / China Economy
By: Ty_Andros
Yes or no?
Every major corner of the world's economies is sitting on a knife's edge of one type or another; the question becomes who falls first triggering the next leg down in the Global Economies and ongoing depression. All are in debt spirals as deficits and debt compound at a high rate, while the growth to service them is but an illusion of official account measures, public sector growth and understated inflation.
Waves of insolvency are just waiting to strike as elites, academics, government servants and banksters worldwide cling to the dying Consumption, asset-backed economic model created at Bretton Woods II. Before that time, the developed world created wealth the old fashioned way: they produced more than they consumed creating savings for allocation to productive enterprises, also known as capitalism. Now growth is measured in how much you can consume creating a top line while ignoring the amount you borrowed from future income to do so.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, May 14, 2014
China Economy Will Drag Us All Down With It / Economics / China Economy
By: Raul_I_Meijer
Yeah, no kidding, as if reports from the US weren’t bad enough, with soaring student debt – that drivers debtors out of the housing market-, collapsing mortgage originations, increasing household debt and slumping retail sales. But still, today, the major news comes from China once again. The government issued a batch of data overnight that shine yet another and clearer light on what is going wrong in the Chinese economy. The numbers are so ugly you wouldn’t want to feed them to your dog. Many sources picked up on this, and not everyone comes up with the exact same numbers – is it 24 or 27 months of inventory? – but we’ll put that down to journalists having to speed read. Let’s do a series, shall we? First up, Bloomberg:
Friday, May 02, 2014
Is China Economy Cracking? / Economics / China Economy
By: Investment_U
Sean Brodrick writes: Signs of a near-term slowdown in the Chinese economy are apparent. And China's economy is so large and intricate that any slowdown there could have a big impact on investors here in the U.S.
In particular, I'm concerned about:
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, March 30, 2014
China’s Ponzi Scheme Unravels / Economics / China Economy
By: LewRockwell
China is the greatest construction boom and credit bubble in recorded history. An entire nation of 1.3 billion has gone mad building, borrowing, speculating, scheming, cheating, lying and stealing. The source of this demented outbreak is not a flaw in Chinese culture or character—nor even the kind of raw greed and gluttony that afflicts all peoples in the late stages of a financial bubble.
Saturday, March 22, 2014
China’s Minsky Moment? / Economics / China Economy
By: John_Mauldin
In speeches and presentations since the end of last year, I have been saying that I think the biggest macro problem in the world today is China. China has run up a huge debt, and the payments are coming due. They seem to be proactive, but will it be enough? How much risk do they pose for the global system?
This week as I travel to Cafayate I have asked my young associate Worth Wray to write up his research and our conversations on China. Worth has lived in China; and with his (and my) access to people with their fingers on the pulse of China, he has come up with some valuable insights. The hard part for him was to keep it in a single letter. China is a such a huge topic that writing about it can easily yield a tome.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, March 18, 2014
Marc Faber Warns China's Credit Crisis Unwind 'Will Be a Disaster' / Economics / China Economy
By: Bloomberg
Marc Faber, publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report, appeared on Bloomberg Television today to discuss the state of the Chinese economy.
Faber told Trish Regan and Matt Miller "I think that we had a colossal credit bubble in China and that this credit bubble is now being gradually deflated....if I look at export figures from China, and they are very closely correlated to overall economic growth, then there is a huge discrepancy between what China reports and what China's trading partners are reporting."
Sunday, March 16, 2014
Is China’s Economy About to Crash? / Economics / China Economy
By: Investment_U
Sean Brodrick writes: My newsfeed is buzzing with panicky stories on China's economy. Professional worrywarts are terrified that the country's first corporate bond default (by a little-known Chinese solar company ) is just a taste of an economic earthquake to come - one that could shake the global financial system to its foundations.
China's corporate bonds had always been backstopped by the government, so when Shanghai Chaori Solar Energy & Science Technology missed a $12.7 million interest payment on a bond, people panicked.
Read full article... Read full article...