Category: China Economy
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Thursday, April 20, 2017
The Real Story of China’s Strong First-Quarter Growth / Economics / China Economy
By: Dan_Steinbock
After the solid first quarter performance, the central government may be in the unique position to achieve its growth target - even while tightening.In the first quarter, China’s economy grew 6.9 percent; slightly faster than expected and led by strong expansion at factories. What the first quarter data reflects is solid growth in several fronts.
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Friday, April 14, 2017
China Starting To Resemble Bernie Madoff / Economics / China Economy
By: Jeff_Berwick
Aubible.com just released a new show on Bernie Madoff (Ponzi Supernova, available for free to subscribers) that explains how the world’s biggest financial scam was enabled by banks and hedge funds who were making so much money that they chose to ignore obvious red flags.
Which sounds a lot like today’s China, Inc. Here, for instance, is a sequence of events involving China Huishan Dairy Holdings, an apparently too-big-to-fail chain of dairy farms:
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Thursday, March 16, 2017
China’s Economic Miracle Is Over / Economics / China Economy
By: John_Mauldin
BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN : Chinese Premier Li Keqiang told the National People’s Congress that China’s GDP growth rate would drop from 7% in 2016 to 6.5% this year. In 2016, the country’s growth rate was the lowest it has been since 1990.
The precision with which any country’s economic growth is measured is dubious, since it’s hard to measure the economic activity of hundreds of millions of people and businesses. But the reliability of China’s economic numbers has always been taken with a larger grain of salt than in most countries. We suspect that China’s economy is growing less than 6.5%, if at all.
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Wednesday, March 08, 2017
Accelerating Economic Reform Execution in China / Economics / China Economy
By: Dan_Steinbock
After political consolidation, China is ready to begin a broader implementation of structural reforms. That is vital to double per capita income in 2010-20.After President Xi assumed office in fall 2012, Chinese leadership has steadily moved toward more comprehensive structural reforms. As evidenced by the recent Two Sessions in Beijing, these reforms are about to move to a new level.
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Friday, March 03, 2017
This Chart Reveals How China Is Faking Its Economic Growth Figures / Economics / China Economy
By: John_Mauldin
BY KEVIN BREKKE : China ended 2016 with 6.8% annualized GDP growth for Q4 that let it log 6.7% growth for the year. Among other things, Beijing’s data divas were eager to report that fixed-asset investment (FAI) had jumped 8.1% last year.
But a quick dissection of that number reveals that a surge in FAI by state-owned enterprises (SOE) saved the year.
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Wednesday, November 30, 2016
Economic Imperialism Could Lead to China’s Demise / Economics / China Economy
By: Rodney_Johnson
In 2007, a Chinese company bought Mount Toromocho in Peru. That’s right. A mountain, in another country.It’s more than half the height of Mount Everest, but aesthetic beauty wasn’t a factor. Beneath the mountain’s surface sits two billion tons of copper, one of the largest reserves in the world. Through a state-owned company, the Chinese government secured access to yet another natural resource overseas.
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Monday, September 19, 2016
China Is Digging Itself into a Deeper Hole / Economics / China Economy
By: John_Mauldin
Chinese “depreciation” and all its ensuing hysteria occurred just about a year ago. It has also been a about a year since I co-wrote a book on China with Worth Wray titled A Great Leap Forward?
The title was meant to be ironic. The original Great Leap Forward was imposed by Mao in the 1960s. It was one of the most economically disastrous times in Chinese history. Food production increased, yet 30 million people starved. China underwent a true financial and economic crisis due to the insanity of central control of markets.
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Monday, August 29, 2016
Politics Is Getting in the Way of China’s Critical Economic Reforms / Economics / China Economy
By: John_Mauldin
BY JACOB SHAPIRO : Two important reports were recently published on the current state of the Chinese economy. The first was the IMF’s annual review. It said the outlook for China’s near-term growth had improved. But, it pointed out that corporate debt is rising. Also, capital outflows for 2016 will equal 2015’s at $1 trillion.
The second report was China’s monthly release of investment data. This showed that fixed asset investment growth in China slowed to 8.1% in July. According to Caixin, that’s the slowest year-to-date fixed asset investment growth in 16 years.
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Wednesday, July 20, 2016
China Economic Troubles - Is Kyle Bass Finally Getting His Revenge? / Economics / China Economy
By: Clif_Droke
One of America's most prominent hedge fund managers is betting the farm that China's economic troubles are far from over. His bet centers around the U.S. dollar and by extension several Asian currencies. What happens to the dollar from here will determine whether this man's epic trading positions pays off, and China suffers a major setback, and whether his worst case scenario for the global economic outlook is merely a mirage. If he's right, the outcome of his bet will also affect the commodities market and perhaps even the equities market.
Friday, June 24, 2016
Here’s Why China “Economic Hard-Landing” Worries Are Overblown / Economics / China Economy
By: John_Mauldin
Although a number of well-known hedge fund managers such as Kyle Bass and George Soros have publicly stated they believe some kind of a “hard landing” in China is coming, not everyone agrees.
Mark Yusko of Morgan Creek Capital is not in the China “hard-landing” camp. He says while the Chinese economy is facing a number of headwinds and risks as it tries to adjust to a consumer-based model, the authorities are wisely taking a balanced, long-term view.
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Tuesday, June 21, 2016
Billionaire Li Ka-Shing Says China’s Economic Outlook Is Bright / Economics / China Economy
By: Bloomberg
Trade surplus, income from services help counter mounting debt
Tycoon was criticised by Chinese state media last year
Hong Kong’s richest man said China’s economic outlook is bright in the long term, casting a vote of confidence in a country that’s growing at its slowest pace in a quarter century.
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Thursday, June 16, 2016
China's Hard Landing Has Already Begun! / Economics / China Economy
By: Gordon_T_Long
The Financial Repression Authority is joined by Richard Duncan, an esteemed author, economist, consultant and speaker. FRA Co-founder, Gordon T. Long discusses with Mr. Duncan about the current Chinese situation and the ramifications being imposed on the global economy.
Richard Duncan is the author of three books on the global economic crisis. The Dollar Crisis: Causes, Consequences, Cures (John Wiley & Sons, 2003, updated 2005), predicted the current global economic disaster with extraordinary accuracy. It was an international bestseller. His second book was The Corruption of Capitalism: A strategy to rebalance the global economy and restore sustainable growth. It was published by CLSA Books in December 2009. His latest book is The New Depression: The Breakdown Of The Paper Money Economy (John Wiley & Sons, 2012).
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Thursday, June 09, 2016
The Bull in The China Shop - The World Can No Longer Absorb China's Surplus / Economics / China Economy
By: Gordon_T_Long
ISSUE #1
The good news is that China produces more than it consumes. This is the opposite of the US which consumers more than it produces.
The bad news is that the world can no longer absorb China's surplus (Production minus Consumption). Global trade has slowed dramatically impacting Chinese exports. The problem is further compounded since China as the new global economic engine, has become the dominate importer of other countries production.
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Sunday, March 27, 2016
China Economy Soft Landing or Bust? SSEC Stock Market Analysis / Economics / China Economy
By: Chris_Vermeulen
China’s stock market ‘bubble’ was fueled by "speculative mania" which has proven to have had grave implications of the global stock markets. The collapse of this "speculative mania" will have far reaching ramifications on our current global stock markets. This indicates that Central Bank interventions cannot alter market cycles.
Tuesday, March 22, 2016
The Chinese Economic "Miracle" Evaporates / Economics / China Economy
By: Rodney_Johnson
There’s no doubt that the Chinese economic miracle is real. When you move 500 million people from rural to urban settings, taking them from small farms and putting them in a specialized labor force, the economic dividend is massive. That’s how you keep GDP growing more than 7% for 25 years. But along the way, they wanted more.Beyond building factories and housing for new arrivals, local politicians started building massive, wasteful projects.
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Wednesday, March 09, 2016
China And Fracking: The Pillars Of “The Recovery” Are Crumbling / Economics / China Economy
By: John_Rubino
When historians sort out this era of once-a-decade financial bubbles, they’ll marvel at how dissimilar the drivers of each boom were. The junk bonds of the 1980s were essentially leveraged tools for extracting wealth from companies. The dot-coms of the 1990s were vehicles for exotic new technologies and untested business models. The sub-prime mortgages and credit default swaps of the 2000s were semi-fraudulent fee-generation schemes.
All, in retrospect, were strange, unsteady foundations on which to build a global economy. But they look positively sane compared to the pillars of the current expansion: China and fracking.
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Monday, March 07, 2016
China: A 5-Year Economic Plan And 50 Million Jobs Lost! / Economics / China Economy
By: Raul_I_Meijer
China never had an actual economic model or growth model. It simply printed an obscene amount of money, especially after 2008, and used it to build factories, 30-story see-through apartment blocks and highways into nowhere cities, without giving much if any thought to where this would lead when their formerly rich western customers had less to spend on its ever increasing amount of ever more useless products, or when its workers would stop spending ever more on apartments as investments, or when no more roads and bridges were needed because nowhere was already in plain sight. Or all of the above. It was ‘to infinity and beyond’ from the start, but that’s a line from a kids’ fantasy story, not a 5-year plan or an economic model.
Monday, February 29, 2016
China's Newest Export: Empty Buildings / Economics / China Economy
By: Michael_Pento
A little over six months ago the owners of the Baha Mar, a $3.5 billion Bahamian resort, filed for bankruptcy. Shoddy construction from the China State Construction Company led to delays resulting from leaking plumbing, porous Chinese concrete and large cracks at critical stress points. The doomed project even led to the death of two Chinese workers. Although the building is 97% complete, the structural deficiencies make it uninhabitable. Given the Chinese proclivity to build ghost towns, it makes you wonder if their construction crews are accustomed to erecting buildings that are never intended to be occupied.
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Tuesday, January 19, 2016
Why Are We Still Paying Attention To Chinese Economic Numbers? / Economics / China Economy
By: John_Rubino
A few years ago, economist Nouriel Roubini was explaining to a reporter why Chinese economic data couldn’t be trusted. He noted that it takes the US weeks and sometimes months to pull together and process the information necessary to produce a complex stat like GDP, and wondered how China, with its far bigger, less developed (and therefore harder to measure) population was able to do it in considerably less time. He concluded that they’re just making up their numbers.
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Friday, January 01, 2016
China's Security of Supply / Economics / China Economy
By: Richard_Mills
Consider:
- There is a slowing of production and dwindling of reserves at many of the world's largest mines.
- All the oz's or pounds are never recovered from a mine - they simply becomes too expensive to recover.
- The pace of new elephant-sized discoveries has decreased in the mining industry.
- Discoveries are smaller and in less accessible regions.
- Mineralogy & metallurgy is more complicated making extraction of metals from the mined ore increasingly more complex and expensive.
- Mining is cyclical which makes mining companies reluctant to spend on exploration and development.
- A looming skills shortage
- There is no substitute for many metals except other metals - plastic piping is one exception.
- Metal markets are small so speculation is a larger factor.
- There hasn't been a new technology shift in mining for decades - heap leach and open pit mining come to mind but they are both decades old innovation.
- Country risk - resource extraction companies, because the number of discoveries was falling and existing deposits were being quickly depleted, have had to diversify away from the traditional geo-politically safe producing countries. The move out of these "safe haven" countries has exposed investors to a lot of additional risk.
- Lack of recognition for population growth, growing middle class w/disposable incomes and urbanization as on-going demand growth factors.
- Climate change.