Category: China Economy
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Friday, January 19, 2024
Toward China's Soft Economic Rebound / Economics / China Economy
By: Dan_Steinbock
Last year, international observers charged China for global inflation, deflation and economic collapse. In reality, Chinese economy is inching toward a soft rebound, despite the dire global landscape.As global business and political leaders swarmed to Davos for the World Economic Forum, Chinese Premier Li Qiang took the podium. Chinese economy has rebounded and moved upward, Li noted, and was estimated to have grown around 5.2% in 2023. That’s slightly better than the official target of around 5%.
No matter how the world’s situation changes, Li added. China will adhere to its fundamental national policy of opening up, and its door will only get wider and wider.” he said.
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Tuesday, June 20, 2023
How Germany's Economy is Turning Ugly / Economics / China Economy
By: EWI
This economic gauge "dipped back below zero in less than a year"
In November 2020, when fears were rampant over a second wave of the coronavirus pandemic, the president of the European Central Bank called for economic stimulus (Reuters):
Facing gloomy outlook, Lagarde calls for unlocking EU aid
In December of 2020, what is known as the Next Generation EU package became operational. This economic aid was massive, amounting to more than €2 trillion at current prices.
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Saturday, November 13, 2021
China Singles' Day - Toward Double 11 Record Sales, Despite Economic Uncertainties / Economics / China Economy
By: Dan_Steinbock
As the world’s largest e-commerce market, China is likely to continue growing faster relative to North America and Western Europe. Singles’ Day 2021 will reflect that expansion.
Before the Singles Day, some observers thought that recent growth deceleration and continued regulatory scrutiny could dampen e-commerce in 2021. Yet, the full-year results may prove not that different from the past year.
On October 20, Alibaba and JD.com kicked promotions off already on October 20 since they are no longer restricted to a 24-hour time window. Last year, Alibaba’s Tmall reported sales of $78 billion in the first 10 days of November; 26 percent more than the previous year. This year, the Double 11 turnover is expected to increase solidly in absolute terms, even if the growth rate slows, due to last year’s high base.
In times of uncertainty, consumers are more cost-conscious. Due to broad discounts and promotions, that is expected to translate record sales during the Singles Day.
Thursday, September 02, 2021
China’s theme park economy thriving, despite pandemic times / Economics / China Economy
By: Dan_Steinbock
Against odds, theme parks are expanding in China, thanks to rising disposable income, investor confidence, and long-term opportunities.On September 1, Universal Beijing Resort, the largest of its kind in the world, will start its trial run. It is the most recent international chain in China’s thriving theme park industry.
Over 2008 to 2017, total theme park attendance increased at 13 percent annually. Today there are more than 200 theme parks in the Chinese mainland and their numbers continue to increase.
In an era of misguided global divisions, the impressive rise of theme parks in China shows the brighter promise of foreign investment and Sino-American cooperation.
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Monday, July 05, 2021
China's xiaokang prosperity source of global hope / Economics / China Economy
By: MoneyMetals
Amid the centenary festivities, China’s success in development shows how peace and stability can foster sustained development, prosperity - and hope.At the 100th anniversary of the Communist Party of China (CPC), Xi Jinping, general secretary of the CPC Central Committee, declared the completion of the goal of building China into “a moderately prosperous society in all respects.”
The achievement of this quest for xiaokang, which ensures basic security and welfare, is predicated on four decades of reforms and opening-up policies.
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Thursday, April 22, 2021
China's record first quarter fuels strong expansion in 2021 / Economics / China Economy
By: Dan_Steinbock
China’s 1st quarter record performance will accelerate momentum in China and support recovery in the US and global economic prospects – as long as unwarranted geopolitical tensions remain in check.A year ago, China’s first quarter plunge was -6.8 percent, due to the pandemic effect. In the West, it was widely seen as the “end of China's growth story.”
Instead, in early February 2020 I predicted a turnaround in the increase of new virus cases in China, with the beginning of the economic rebound in the second quarter. Following the 6.5 percent expansion in the fourth quarter of 2020, the GDP rose to a record 18.3 percent year-on-year in the past quarter.
Obviously, the performance benefited from the base effect, due to the pandemic plunge a year ago. Nonetheless, it reflects a strong impetus for normalization.
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Tuesday, March 09, 2021
Amid Uncertainty, China’s Quest for Bold Development / Economics / China Economy
By: Dan_Steinbock
At a historical moment of hope and uncertainty, China pledges bold economic development, despite global tensions.
China’s annual “Two Sessions” meeting has approved national priorities for 2021. Delivered by Premier Li Keqiang, the Government Work Report set a growth target of over 6 percent for Chinese economy for 2021, releasing a numeric goal after it was skipped in 2020, due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
China plans to create more than 11 million new jobs in 2021, while keeping inflation rate (CPI) at 3 percent and cutting the deficit-to-GDP ratio to 3.2 percent. The goal is to increase annual R&D spending by more than 7 percent in the next five years, including foreign-funded R&D centers in China.
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Thursday, January 28, 2021
China's Accelerated Economic Recovery Key to Global Growth / Economics / China Economy
By: Dan_Steinbock
Unlike other major economies, China has rebounded and its recovery is accelerating. It could fuel a third of global economic growth in 2021.
With the Spring Festival holidays just weeks away, recent resurgences of COVID-19 infections in Jilin province and Shijiazhuang, Hebei province have renewed concerns about sporadic outbreaks.
China’s public-health authorities believe a major outbreak of the novel coronavirus in the Chinese mainland is unlikely. The authorities have taken strong containment measures to rapidly identify, isolate and control potential outbreaks.
Nonetheless, despite the holidays, Chinese people have been urged to avoid travels, to keep the infection rate under control. Downside risks permit no complacency in the foreseeable future.
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Tuesday, November 03, 2020
China’s New 15-Year Vision: ‘Dual Circulation’ to Sustainable Growth / Economics / China Economy
By: Dan_Steinbock
While the coronavirus fallout is still escalating in Western economies, China’s rebound has begun. Global recovery requires multilateral cooperation that China's new development pattern seeks to foster.
Last week, the 19th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) completed its fifth plenary session in Beijing.
Unlike all other major countries, China’s economy is rebounding and fueling global prospects.
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Friday, May 22, 2020
China’s ‘Two Sessions’ herald Rebound of Economy / Economics / China Economy
By: Dan_Steinbock
As the coronavirus fallout is spreading in Western economies, China’s rebound has begun. Global recovery requires global cooperation, however.
Today, international interest in the annual Two Sessions of China’s top legislative and political advisory bodies - National People’s Congress, and Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference – which starts on Thursday, is exceptionally high.
Due to the global pandemic, the Sessions take place under strong anti-epidemic measures, including social distancing, and will be significantly shorter and rely more on videoconferences. Such measures are in line with the science-based health policies, which the central government adopted in late January.
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Wednesday, November 13, 2019
Why China is likely to remain the ‘world’s factory’ for some time to come / Economics / China Economy
By: Submissions
US tariffs have hit the manufacturing giant to the tune of $35 billion, says a recent UN report. But companies have found that China’s rivals are a poor replacement.
In December 2018, about five months after US President Donald Trump imposed tariffs on China to correct the US trade deficit with Beijing that stood at $419 billion (2018), analysts at the Boston Consulting Group said that despite challenges such as rising wages and escalating trade tensions with its trading partners such as the US and Japan, “it is reasonable to assume that China will remain manufacturing’s center of gravity for the foreseeable future”.
It was easy to be sceptical of this assessment given the number of companies that announced plans to move manufacturing out of China following the imposition of Trump’s tariffs. One of them was the world’s largest bicycle manufacturer, Giant. “We started moving before he [Trump] shut his mouth,” said its chairwoman in an interview to Bloomberg in June 2019.
Tuesday, November 12, 2019
Double 11 Record Sales Signal Strength of Chinese Consumption / Economics / China Economy
By: Dan_Steinbock
On Monday, Alibaba’s Single’s Day broke all records. Chinese consumption and ecommerce signal not just continued resilience but evident strength.By 5 pm on Monday Alibaba Group had already broken last year’s record of $31 billion. And at midnight, the new record soared to $38.3 billion – 25 percent higher than last year.
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Thursday, November 07, 2019
China’s path from World’s Factory to World Market / Economics / China Economy
By: Dan_Steinbock
The rise of the Shanghai Import Expo reflects China’s huge transformation from world producer and cheap prices to world consumer and innovator.Speaking at the second China International Import Expo (CIIE) in Shanghai, Chinese president Xi Jinping pledged China will stimulate increased imports, continue to broaden market access, foster a world-class business environment, explore new horizons of opening-up and promote international cooperation at multilateral and bilateral levels.
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Friday, October 25, 2019
The Mystery of China’s Third-Quarter Growth - Resilience or Gloom? / Economics / China Economy
By: Dan_Steinbock
Despite trade wars and geopolitics, Chinese economic growth shows resilience. So why is there a deep gap between the third-quarter data and gloomy international headlines?
After the release of third-quarter data, The Wall Street Journal headline sounded a warning: “China’s economic growth slowest in decades.” CNN seconded: “China’s economic growth drops to lowest level since 1992.” Reuters extended the timeline: “China’s GDP growth grinds to near 30-year low as tariffs hit production.”
Friday, October 11, 2019
China Golden Week Sales Exceed Expectations / Economics / China Economy
By: Dan_Steinbock
In contrast to gloomy international projections, economic realities suggest that China’s Golden Week may have exceeded expectations.I spent China’s 70-year National Day festivities in Shanghai, China's global financial hub, and Guangzhou, the global trade hub of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area. In both, China’s massive transition toward consumption and innovation is now an increasing reality.
Due to US tariff wars, Chinese mass consumers – like their peers in the United States, Europe and Japan – are cost-conscious, increasingly discriminate and sophisticated in their spending. Indeed, sales of gold jewelry boomed during the holidays, fueled by gold prices, holiday festivities and the wedding season.
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Friday, June 14, 2019
The American Dream Is Alive and Well - in China / Economics / China Economy
By: Ellen_Brown
Home ownership has been called “the quintessential American dream.” Yet today less than 65% of American homes are owner occupied, and more than 50% of the equity in those homes is owned by the banks. Compare China, where, despite facing one of the most expensive real estate markets in the world, a whopping 90% of families can afford to own their homes.
Over the last decade, American wages have stagnated and U.S. productivity has consistently been outpaced by China’s. The U.S. government has responded by engaging in a trade war and imposing stiff tariffs in order to penalize China for what the White House deems unfair trade practices. China’s industries are said to be propped up by the state and to have significantly lower labor costs, allowing them to dump cheap products on the U.S. market, causing prices to fall and forcing U.S. companies out of business. The message to middle America is that Chinese labor costs are low because their workers are being exploited in slave-like conditions at poverty-level wages.
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Monday, May 13, 2019
Why Rising Living Standard in China Offers Global Hope / Politics / China Economy
By: Dan_Steinbock
China’s 70-Year Anniversary As living standard rises in China, its global contribution continues to increase. And that means potential for growth, poverty reduction and prosperity in emerging and developing world - new hope.
When Chairman Mao Zedong proclaimed the founding of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) on October 1, 1949, the Chinese people could finally begin to leave behind a century of colonial humiliation and start building a new life.
What remains so poorly understood is how dire were the conditions on that extraordinary day, seven decades ago. While China had sustained its triumph, Chinese living standard was barely 5 percent relative to the United States.
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Tuesday, March 05, 2019
China - A Critical Global Growth Engine, Despite Deceleration / Economics / China Economy
By: Dan_Steinbock
Despite U.S. trade wars, China will stick to its growth target and fiscal easing in the short-term, deleveraging in the medium-term and rebalancing in the long-term. That’s the message of Premier Li’s report.Released on Monday at the annual session of the National People’s Congress (NPC), Premier Li Keqian’s annual work report sets the general tone for the 2019 economic policies.
In 2019, China has set a lower, flexible economic growth target at the range of 6.0% to 6.5%, while raising its tolerance of fiscal deficit at 2.8% of GDP.
The point about the GDP growth target is not how much it will exceed 6%, but that it should not fall below that level. That’s vital to sustain the quest to double living standard by 2020.
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Wednesday, January 30, 2019
This Is the Key to Understanding China’s Economy / Economics / China Economy
By: John_Mauldin
China is facing many challenges. That’s probably not news to you.
But what we often fail to understand is this: China will deal with those challenges in a much different way than what we are used to in the West.
To solve Europe’s financial woes in 2012, ECB President Mario Draghi promised to do “whatever it takes.” Yet central bank policy was his only tool.
Xi Jinping has a vastly larger toolbox. It is hard for us in the Western world to understand that.
Monday, December 31, 2018
China’s 2019 Economic Growth Outlook / Economics / China Economy
By: Dan_Steinbock
As China’s growth seems to be slowing, some observers see the country amid a “severe downturn.” As they mistake China’s secular deceleration with cyclical fluctuations, they miss the rapid increase in Chinese living standards.Amid the Christmas meltdown, the Dow Jones plunged to less than 22,000, the lowest since September 2017. Thereafter, it soared over 1,000 points; the biggest single-day point gain ever. Nevertheless, it has declined 4,000 points in two months.
It is this historical market volatility associated with the Trump administration that now overshadows world economy and China. In recent weeks, the U.S. economy has become increasingly exposed to policy mistakes and drastic market fluctuations.
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