Category: China Economy
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Thursday, November 19, 2015
The Great Fall Of China Started At Least 4 Years Ago / Economics / China Economy
By: Raul_I_Meijer
Looking through a bunch of numbers and graphs dealing with China recently, it occurred to us that perhaps we, and most others with us, may need to recalibrate our focus on what to emphasize amongst everything we read and hear, if we’re looking to interpret what’s happening in and with the country’s economy.
It was only fair -perhaps even inevitable- that oil would be the first major commodity to dive off a cliff, because oil drives the entire global economy, both as a source of fuel -energy- and as raw material. Oil makes the world go round.
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Wednesday, October 07, 2015
Retirement Fears in China Ageing Economy / Economics / China Economy
By: Rodney_Johnson
The current economic mess in the developed world is easy to explain and hard to fix.
This is a demand-driven downturn, where aging populations choose to save more of what they earn, take on less debt, and generally rotate to a risk-averse world view.
The change isn’t new. It happens to almost all of us as we get older.
Friday, October 02, 2015
The Reality Behind the Numbers in China’s Boom-Bust Economy / Economics / China Economy
By: MISES
Yonathan Amselem writes: Last year, the world was stunned by an IMF report which found the Chinese economy larger and more productive than that of the United States, both in terms of raw GDP and purchasing power parity (PPP). The Chinese people created more goods and had more purchasing power with which to obtain them — a classic sign of prosperity. At the same time, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite more than doubled in value since October of 2014. This explosion in growth was accompanied by a post-recession construction boom that rivals anything the world has ever seen. In fact, in the three years from 2011 – 2013, the Chinese economy consumed more cement than the United States had in the entire twentieth century. Across the political spectrum, the narrative for the last fifteen years has been that of a rising Chinese hyperpower to rival American economic and cultural influence around the globe. China’s state-led “red capitalism” was a model to be admired and even emulated.
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Thursday, August 27, 2015
Why Devaluing the Yuan Won't Help China's Economy / Economics / China Economy
By: Frank_Shostak
Earlier this month, the Chinese government decided to depreciate its currency on three consecutive occasions. On August 13, the price of the US dollar was trading at 6.413 — an increase of 3.3 percent against July. The key factor behind the central bank’s lowering of the yuan is a sharp decline in the growth momentum of exports with the yearly rate of growth falling to minus 8.3 percent in July from 2.8 percent in June.
Wednesday, August 26, 2015
Why China's Economy is Deteriorating / Economics / China Economy
By: Steve_H_Hanke
The plunging Shanghai Stock Exchange and the sudden reversal in the yuan’s appreciation have caused fears to spread beyond China’s borders. Is something wrong with the world’s growth locomotive? In a word, yes.
The most reliable approach for the determination of nominal gross domestic product (GDP) and the balance of payments is the monetary approach. Indeed, the path of an economy’s nominal GDP is determined by the course of its money supply (broadly determined).
Monday, August 24, 2015
Playing the Chinese Trump Card / Stock-Markets / China Economy
By: John_Mauldin
“I know the Chinese. I’ve made a lot of money with the Chinese. I understand the Chinese mind.”
Back in the olden days (pre-2000 or so), information junkies like me relied on printed newspapers, paper magazines, TV newscasts, and snail-mail newsletters. All these channels still exist, but they can’t begin to compete with the constant stream of data rushing into our tablets and smartphones. And on some days the stream rushes faster.
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Friday, August 21, 2015
Why China Economy Is in Trouble - It's the Slumping Money Supply / Economics / China Economy
By: Steve_H_Hanke
The course of an economy is determined by the course of that economy's money supply (broadly determined). The relationship between money growth and nominal GDP growth is presented in the accompanying chart. It is persuasive. Indeed, money, not fiscal policy, dominates.
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Wednesday, August 12, 2015
China is Lying About Its Economy / Economics / China Economy
By: Harry_Dent
I and a few brave experts such as Jim Chanos, Gordon Chang, and David Stockman (speaking at our upcoming IES conference) have been arguing for years that China has the greatest investment and overbuilding bubble in all of modern history.We’ve also warned that its economic statistics are not real – they are purposefully overstated and then revised later, if at all.
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Monday, August 03, 2015
When China Stopped Acting Chinese / Economics / China Economy
By: John_Mauldin
“The one thing I know for sure about China is, I will never know China. It's too big, too old, too diverse, too deep. There's simply not enough time.”– Anthony Bourdain, Parts Unknown
Much of the world is focused on what is happening in Greece and Europe. A lot of people are paying attention to the Middle East and geopolitics. These are significant concerns, for sure; but what has been happening in China the past few months has more far-reaching global investment implications than Europe or the Middle East do. Most people are aware of the amazing run-up in the Shanghai stock index and the recent “crash.” The government intervened and for a time has halted the rapid drop in the markets.
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Wednesday, July 29, 2015
Chinese Corporatism Turns Sour / Economics / China Economy
By: BATR
As even the casual observer of the effects from the corporatist model for economic commerce knows, permanence in a developing prosperity is transient at best. What becomes the rush to ratchet up industrial production ends up in a piercing disappointment for long term stability. China is the latest example of a corporatist model in serious trouble. And who will suffer the most? Those dependent on export manufacturing are clearly poised for a very bumpy ride. While the oligarchs play global chess with their foreign companies, the enterprise of creating a rise in world-wide wealth suffers.
Tuesday, June 30, 2015
China Takes A Big Step To Spur Economic Growth / Economics / China Economy
By: AnyOption
After a strong end of last year for Chinese markets, there was a bit of a reversal in the first quarter of 2015; and it has caught the attention of Chinese monetary policy makers. In an effort to spur economic growth, the People's Bank of China has made big changes to monetary policy in the country. Today, we'll talk about what those changes are and how they're likely to help, as well as what we can expect to see from China's markets moving forward. So, let's get right to it.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, May 27, 2015
Bad News For China: Bernanke Says It’s Okay / Economics / China Economy
By: John_Rubino
Former Fed chairman Ben Bernanke will be remembered by future generations as the guy who didn’t see a housing bubble while he was creating it.
That is, unless he says something even dumber, like this:
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Saturday, April 25, 2015
China Economic Slowdown Story - Why “Didi Dache” Is a Phrase You Need to Know / Economics / China Economy
By: Money_Morning
If all you’ve been hearing regarding China recently is noise about its economic slowdown, you need to find a better news source.
Investors need to stop worrying over China’s long-expected gradual slowdown. Do so and you likely will see, as my guest today does, the long-term growth ahead for key tech sectors in the world’s most populous nation.
I’m talking about the kind of growth that will fill investors’ portfolios with soaring profits for years to come.
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Thursday, April 23, 2015
Is China The Next United States? / Politics / China Economy
By: STRATFOR
By Mark Fleming-Williams: Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers wrote on April 5 that this month may be remembered as the moment the United States lost its role as the underwriter of the global economic system. His comments refer to the circumstances surrounding China's launch of a new venture, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). Wary of China's growing ambitions and influence, the United States had advised its allies not to join the institution, but many signed up anyway. The debacle was undoubtedly embarrassing for Washington, but even so, Summers' prophecy is a bit premature at this stage.
Tuesday, April 14, 2015
China Margin Debt, Trading Accounts, Construction Equipment / Economics / China Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
In response to my April 1, post China Margin Debt Soars to Record 1 Trillion Yuan; Another Central Bank Sponsored Bubble I received an email from reader Nicolas.
He writes ...
Read full article... Read full article...Hello Mish
Happy Monday. I find your output excellent an I hope that you are flattered that you are followed by private banks is Switzerland.
Quick question on your last note; please can you tell me what (Bloomberg/Reuters) code you use for Chinese Margin debt? i.e. where can I cross-reference the Trillion Yuan figure you quote?
Best regards and many thanks,
Nicolas
Thursday, March 26, 2015
The Crude Oil Price Crash and China Economic Slow Down / Economics / China Economy
By: Raul_I_Meijer
This is another essay from friend and regular contributor of The Automatic Earth, Euan Mearns at Energy Matters.
One comment on my part: Euan says ‘This has lead to speculation that weak global demand, stemming from masked economic woes, may also be playing a key role.‘ I don’t think the use of the term ‘speculation’ is appropriate here, because it seems overly obvious that China’s economic slowdown has played a major role in the oil price crash (and continues to do so). Even if there’s no ‘scientific’ proof, and even if the main media narrative remains OPEC overproduction and the inane meme of the cartel’s refusal to cut production, it certainly goes way beyond mere speculation.
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Thursday, March 19, 2015
China's Deflationary Economic Bust and Beyond: Anne Stevenson-Yang Presentation / Economics / China Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
Anne Stevenson-Yang graciously made her presentation on China 2015 Risks - Deflationary Bust and Beyond publicly available.
I wanted to embed the document but it got distorted a bit, so please click on the above link to download the document.
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Thursday, March 12, 2015
China Economic Growth Reality Check, Hard Landing Global Recession at Hand / Economics / China Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
How Fast is China Growing?
Analyst estimates of Chinese growth keep getting lower and lower. Yet, those declining estimates have all been from a lofty level: From 10% to 9%, to 8% to 7.5%.
China's growth target for 2015 is 7.0%.
Many question those growth estimates. I certainly do. Chinese growth is not consistent with energy demand, raw materials, or personal consumption. Worse yet, growth does not factor in pollution or malinvestments in vacant housing, vacant malls, vacant airports, etc.
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Tuesday, March 10, 2015
China: Hot Money Flow In, Now Out / Economics / China Economy
By: Steve_H_Hanke
For some years, hot money flowed in, adding massively to China’s foreign reserve stockpile. Speculators borrowed cheaply in U.S. dollars and bought yuan-denominated assets in anticipation of an ever-appreciating yuan. Well, this carry trade has shifted into reverse, with $91 billion in net outflows in the last quarter of 2014. And with that, the ever-appreciating yuan story has come to a close, too. Indeed, the yuan has lost 1.8% against the greenback since the New Year.
Monday, February 09, 2015
Trade Data Show China’s Credit Bubble is Bursting, UK to See Deflationary Effects – Global Depression Ahead? / Economics / China Economy
By: GoldCore
- Chinese imports, primarily of raw materials, crashed 19.9% in January
- Exports fall 3.3% against expectations of 6.3% rise
- Total Chinese debt rose from $7.4 trillion in 2007 to $28.2 trillion in 2014
- Capital outflows last quarter were the highest on record
- China may devalue yuan to boost exports
- Currency depreciation by worlds biggest exporter may trigger global deflation and depression
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