Category: Stock Markets 2024
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Friday, September 06, 2024
Stocks Face Uncertainty Following Sell-Off / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Paul_Rejczak
My speculative short position in the S&P 500 futures contract from August 20, opened at the 5,626 level, is in profit.
Wednesday’s trading session saw a slight rebound of the S&P 500 index, but it closed 0.16% lower, hovering near its short-term low following Tuesday’s decline of over 2%. The index broke below its recent trading range on Tuesday, which could signal the start of a new short-term downtrend, though it currently looks like a downward correction.
This morning, futures contracts indicate the index will open 0.2% lower, reacting to economic data: a lower-than-expected ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and a slightly weaker Unemployment Claims report.
Friday, August 30, 2024
Stocks Likely to Extend Consolidation: Topping Pattern Forming? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Paul_Rejczak
Wednesday’s trading session brought declines for the stock market, but overall, the market remained within its short-term consolidation. The S&P 500 index lost 0.6% after rebounding from the daily low of around 5,561. The eagerly-awaited NVDA earnings didn’t change much, although today, the market is set to open 0.2% higher, retracing some of yesterday’s decline and further extending its consolidation.
Last Wednesday, I wrote “Recently, the market has continued to climb following the brief Yen crisis at the start of August, surprising many traders. The question is whether the market will continue to new highs or reverse course and retrace the recent rally. I think there is a chance the market will reverse its course and correct some of the advances, retracing a large part of the rally.”
Investor sentiment remains elevated, as shown by the yesterday’s AAII Investor Sentiment Survey, which showed that 51.2% of individual investors are bullish, while 27.0% of them are bearish – up from 23.7% last week.
Friday, August 30, 2024
Why Stock-Market Success Is Usually Only Temporary / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: EWI
Here's a sample of record sentiment readings for stocks
Recession coming or not, people are still EXTREMELY bullish.
Read this excerpt from the May 17, 2024 Elliott Wave Theorist:
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Friday, August 16, 2024
Is Stocks Rally Showing Signs of Exhaustion? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Paul_Rejczak
Stocks further accelerated their uptrend yesterday, with the S&P 500 index closing 1.61% and reaching new local highs above the 5,500 level. The market has retraced almost all of its declines from the August 1 local high of 5,566.16. The rebound surprised a majority of traders and the question is: Will the market go straight to new highs, or will it reverse at some point and retrace the rally? For now, there have been no confirmed negative signals; however, this morning, the S&P 500 is likely to open 0.6% lower, as indicated by futures contracts.
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Thursday, August 15, 2024
We got the Stock Market Selloff — Now what? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Submissions
Editor’s note: Today, RiskHedge Executive Editor Chris Reilly sits down with Stephen McBride to discuss the recent market selloff and what investors should expect leading up to the US presidential election...
***
Chris Reilly: Stephen, we got the selloff you’ve been anticipating.
Here’s your warning from June:
Markets aren’t usually this easy or consistent. And remember, in an average year, the S&P 500 suffers a decline of 14%. My guess is we’ll get a correction in that ballpark sometime before November’s election.
Monday, August 12, 2024
Stock Market Mainstream Financial Media Narratives vs Reality / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
So much for the "Sell in May and go Away" narrative that gets peddled out each year. Near term the S&P has basically traded sideways for the past 3 weeks nevertheless the stock market has delivered opportunities galore to both trim and accumulate in key target stocks such as buying the dips in ADSK, DIOD, and GPN and selling the rips in TSM, Qualcom and WDC, whilst seeking to capitalise on opportunities presented by the plunge in cloud computing stocks such as CRM, VEEV, Adobe, and SNOW of which SNOW is the bigger gamble of the bunch.
Current state of the stock market is that the S&P put in a new all time high of 5373, which is what tends to happen during a bull market as I often state that the risk is to the upside.
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Monday, August 12, 2024
Stock Market Rollercoaster: Analyzing the Recent Meltdown and Recovery / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: MoneyMetals
The financial landscape experienced a seismic shift last week, reminiscent of hitting rumble strips on the interstate—jerking investors awake to the underlying economic dangers.
Monday’s drastic stock market selloff, triggered by various catalysts, left investors reeling, though the panic seemed to abate by week's end. But is everything truly back to normal, or was this a premonition of more significant issues to come?
Monday, August 12, 2024
Stocks Rebounded: What’s Next? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Paul_Rejczak
Tuesday's trading session was mixed; stock prices bounced, but they closed well below the daily highs. The S&P 500 reached a local high of 5,312.34 but closed more than 70 points below that level, gaining 'just' 1.04%. Overnight, calming words from the Bank of Japan were released, and this morning, the S&P 500 is likely to open 1.0% higher in another attempt to retrace more of its recent sell-off.
Before the current turmoil, investor sentiment had slightly improved last week, as indicated by the last Wednesday's AAII Investor Sentiment Survey, which showed that 44.9% of individual investors are bullish, while only 25.2% of them are bearish – down from 31.7% last week.
Saturday, August 10, 2024
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Reasons For A CRASH / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Avi_Gilburt
Recently, we have seen a 10% drop in the S&P500. And, there is no shortage of reasons that the financial media pundits have ascribed to that decline. While many point to the bad jobs data, we have to at least be honest in recognizing that the market began this decline well before those poor jobs numbers were announced. So, we can easily dismiss that superficial reason.
But, the most common reason for the market decline to which the pundits point was the unwinding of the yen carry trade. In fact, I counted at least 3 articles on Seeking Alpha alone with that reason in their title, with at least another 5 or 6 proffering that reason within the heart of their articles.
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Saturday, August 10, 2024
Big US Stocks Fundamentals / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Zeal_LLC
The big US stocks dominating markets and investors’ portfolios just reported a truly-spectacular quarter. Their collective revenues neared record levels, driving their highest earnings ever witnessed. Yet despite all that, risks abound. The US stock markets have never been more concentrated, relying on fewer and fewer companies. Valuations remain deep into dangerous bubble territory, and market fragility signs are mounting.
The flagship US S&P 500 stock index has enjoyed a banner 2024, blasting up 18.8% year-to-date in mid-July! Traders’ fascination with mega-cap techs involved in artificial intelligence fueled fully 38 new record-high closes this year, over 1/4th of all trading days. The resulting greed and euphoria have left the SPX chronically- and extremely-overbought, mostly stretching far above its baseline 200-day moving average.
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Wednesday, June 26, 2024
Can Stock Market Bad Breadth Be Good? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Gary_Tanashian
In a word, yes. But first, bad market breadth will likely be… bad
A subscriber sent me analysis calling for a “Monster [bullish] reversion trade for the ages” based on the extreme under-performance of the Equal Weight SPX (RSP) to the Headline SPX. The writer’s conclusion is that after such an extreme divergence the spring back in RSP vs. SPY/SPX is strong and the broader market is the place to be for out-performance.
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Sunday, June 16, 2024
Investors Are Forever Blowing Bubbles / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Kelsey_Williams
“Blowing soap bubbles is child’s (investor’s?) play, but surprisingly, physicists (economists?) haven’t worked out the details of the phenomenon.” (source)
After all-time closing highs in both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 yesterday, investors drove both indexes higher again today following the release of the latest CPI number and the Fed’s decision to leave their target Fed funds rate unchanged for now. The bond market followed suit with bond prices increasing and the 10-year yield dropping to its lowest level in more than two months.
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Saturday, June 15, 2024
Stock Market Trend Forecast 2024 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
As I voiced in my preceding analysis that failure of the Feb to March correction results in the following consequences -
a. It increases the probability for the other 2 corrections to materialise i.e. it was always a toss up whether we see 2 or 3 corrections during the year, where 2023 saw 2 corrections and thus tipped it in favour to expect 3 for 2024.
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Saturday, June 15, 2024
Gold Price Consolidating at High / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Zeal_LLC
Gold has generally drifted sideways for a couple months now, consolidating high. That lack of progress has significantly eroded sentiment, bleeding off greed and stoking bearishness. But this healthy process is exactly what gold needed to rebalance sentiment. After soaring to extremely-overbought levels in April, greed grew excessive. The high consolidation since is bleeding that off, readying gold for another surge higher.
From mid-February to mid-April, gold blasted a powerful 20.0% higher in a remarkable breakout surge. Fully 19 new nominal record closes were achieved in that short span, which really excited traders! The lion’s share of that upside wasn’t fueled by gold’s usual primary drivers, speculators buying gold futures and American stock investors buying gold-ETF shares. Chinese investors and central banks took the helm.
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Saturday, June 15, 2024
When Will the Boom/ Bust Rollercoaster End? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Michael_Pento
How can we know for sure the stock market is in a bubble? NVIDIA (NVDA) has been up 155% year to date; its market cap is over $3 trillion. The company has gained the equivalent of Amazon in just six months. And it is responsible for just over half of the S&P 500 gains this year. For comparison, the equal-weight S&P is up just over 4% this year. NVDA has added the equivalent of Berkshire Hathaway's (BRK) valuation in 6 weeks. BRK is the empire legendary investor Warren Buffet spent his entire lifetime building. NVDA is now worth over 10% of US GDP. That means AAPL, MSFT, and NVDA are now worth more than 1/3rd of our nation's entire economic output. All previous stock market bubbles share the following in common: a narrow stock market rally that focuses on a small group of stocks in a small sector of the economy that Wall Street is working overtime on promoting. AI fits this profile perfectly. I am not disputing that AI is going to be a productivity boom. Nevertheless, NVDA is now in a bubble. The stock is predicated on spurious and ephemeral demand for its chips, which will collapse in the economic downturn ahead.
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Saturday, June 15, 2024
Stock Market Trouble Lies Ahead. Are You Ready For It? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: EWI
By Steven Hochberg
Conversations about whether or not the Fed will cut interest rates any time soon continue to dominate the airwaves. But we are looking elsewhere for signs about where markets and the economy are headed.
Having observed market behavior for 45 years, we've got a lot of historical precedents to lean on. The emerging picture suggests that investors not paying attention may be caught unprepared for an impending change.
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Saturday, June 08, 2024
Stock Market Investor Sentiment / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
In a very similar pattern to the US Dollar, we had negative divergence in the bull bear % spread going into the end March S&P top which at 48 does not have far to go before it enters into an over sold state below 30, again suggesting that most of the decline is behind us. Remember we are in a bull market so bearish readings are going to be infrequent and short lived.
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Saturday, June 08, 2024
S&P 494 Stocks Then & Now / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Submissions
One of the extraordinary features of today’s equity market is the extreme concentration of S&P 500 in a handful of names. Most readers know that stocks like Nvidia and Microsoft, the “AI plays”, essentially drive the performance of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. We were interested in seeing the degree of market concentration at the last bubble peak in 2000. Historically, narrow market leadership portends future weakness in prices. So we did some quantitative work and put together some interesting charts updating our “S&P 495” chart series. We added one name, Nvidia, to create the Super 6 (Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Google, Amazon, and Meta), and compared these six to the remaining 494 stocks, the S&P 494.
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Friday, June 07, 2024
S&P USD Correction / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The S&P trend tends to be inversely correlated to the USD trend as this inverted chart of the USD illustrates, where what the stock market seeks is either a dollar trending higher or a stable dollar within a range.
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Saturday, May 25, 2024
Stocks Bull Market Smoking Gun / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
One of the comments I receive is that the Reverse Repo liquidity pool getting drained,, won't that mean that the stock market then hits a brick wall?
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