Category: Stock Markets 2024
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Friday, November 29, 2024
US Presidential Election Year Stock Market Seasonal Trend / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
So far the election year seasonal trend has had 4 misses out of 9 months, so on it's own as is the case with most individual pieces of analysis has been a coin flip as to whether any particular month will follow the seasonal pattern or not.
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Thursday, November 21, 2024
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: This Is My Strong Warning To You / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Avi_Gilburt
As the market has now struck the upper end of my long-term target set many years ago, it seems many have embraced this bull market, to the extent that they see no reason for it to end. However, that is usually the time one has to pay attention for the potential for it to come an end.
The last 25 years have only reinforced the common perspective that the market “always comes back.” Whether we are speaking about the manner in which investors have been trained in a Pavlovian fashion to believe in the omnipotent power of the Fed or whether we are speaking about the manner in which the market has always come back stronger after each larger drop seen over the last 25 years, there is one thing that has become a certainty in the market: Buy and hold is the ONLY way to go.
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Sunday, November 03, 2024
Stock Market Brief in Count Down to US Election Result 2024 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
It's your lucky day, you get access to my latest pre-election market brief made available to patrons earlier today. For immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $7 per month, lock it in now at $7 before next rises to $10 per month for new sign-ups. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
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Saturday, November 02, 2024
Stock Market Trend Forecast to Jan 2025 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
This extensive analysis Stock Market Trend Forecast Sept 2024 to Jan 2025 was first made available to patrons who support my work. So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $7 per month, lock it in now at $7 before next rises to $10 per month for new sign-ups. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
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Sunday, October 27, 2024
Panic in the Air As Stock Market Correction Delivers Deep Opps in AI Tech Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
This analysis Panic in the Air As Stock Market Correction Delivers Deep Opps in AI Tech Stocks. was first made available to patrons who support my work. So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $7 per month, lock it in now at $7 before next rises to $10 per month for new sign-ups. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
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Monday, September 30, 2024
Stock Market October Correction / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Stock Market Brief - 30th Sept 2024 - 5am UK Time
S&P FOMO's to new all time high which is against the seasonal trend for a down Sept, which is good in that it is the focus of my next analysis that allows one to determine what follows an UP Sept and it's derivatives for what it means for not just the next few months but for the whole of 2925. Preliminary analysis suggests to expect a strong Q4 and a bullish 2025 which will be the third full year of the stocks bull market, yes that's right those FOMO buying to push the S&P to a new all time high are TWO YEARS LATE TO THE PARTY! The true smart money was FOMO catching those falling knives into the October 2022 lows as I stated at the time your best buys will be your most painful to do!
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Monday, September 30, 2024
The Everything Rally will Spark multi year Bull Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Richard_Mills
The Federal Reserve’s decision to cut interest rates by 50 basis points boosted US stocks and has some observers wondering whether we are gliding towards an “everything rally”.
CNN reported on Friday that investors were moving into riskier assets from bitcoin to tech stocks. The S&P 500 on Thursday marked its 42nd record-high close in 2024, while on Wednesday, the Dow chalked up its 31st record high of the year. All three major stock indexes were on pace for a positive week.
Hedge fund manager Eric Jackson of EMJ Capital told CNBC the current environment of economic growth and interest rates resembles the early days of the 1982 bull market, the first 10 months of which the stock market gained 107%.
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Sunday, September 22, 2024
US Rate Cut FOMO In Stock Market Correction Window / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
It's your lucky day, you get access to my latest market brief made available to patrons 22nd September.
.....
Stock Market Brief - 22nd Sept - 7pm (UK Time)
US 0.5% rate cut signals that the Fed wants to bring rates down fast from the 5.5% peak, with likely another 0.5% cut before year end and probably targeting sub 4% by the end of 2025 to maybe to around 3.5% which will act as a huge wind behind the stocks bull markets sail as multiples expand. Which in fact is contrary to that which most expect i.e. the analogs being peddled across the blogosfear point to the Fed deep cuts being associated with bear markets which is true! BUT those cuts were in response to FINANCIAL and ECONOMIC CRISIS which is not so today. Remember the market DISCOUNTS THE FUTURE IN THE PRESENT, so is discounting strong economic and earnings growth for 2025 following the 0.5% rate cut by expanding multiples in the present. Rate cuts should act to boost downtrodden stocks such as NIKE and Walt Disney that I accumulated some exposure to.
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Sunday, September 22, 2024
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks:Nothing Can Topple This Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Avi_Gilburt
Every now and then, I peruse articles written on Seeking Alpha to glean a flavor for what the average investor feels about the current market environment. And, to that end, I will scan the comments section for some nuggets of anecdotal sentiment.
So, over the last week or so, I have seen quite a few comments about the S&P500 such as these:
"We could hit 10k sometime around 2028 but I wouldn't be surprised with 2027 either."
"At this point it's clear that nothing will sink stocks. Even a full blown recession event like 2008 wouldn't be able to do much damage to the stock market at this point. In fact it would be bullish because Fed would print trillions to pump stocks again."
Tuesday, September 17, 2024
Are Stocks Overheating? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Paul_Rejczak
Stock prices continued their uptrend on Friday, with the S&P 500 gaining 0.54% and breaking above the 5,600 level. The market is once again nearing its July 16 record high of 5,669.67. But will it continue upward? Today, the index is expected to open 0.1% lower as markets await the FOMC rate decision on Wednesday. In the short term, the market appears more and more overbought, making a correction likely at some point.
Last week, the investor sentiment worsened, as shown by AAII Investor Sentiment Survey on Wednesday, which reported that 39.8% of individual investors are bullish, while 31.0% of them are bearish, up from 24.9% last week.
Tuesday, September 17, 2024
Sentiment Speaks: Silver Is At A Major Turning Point / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Avi_Gilburt
I want to start this article with a little background about Elliott Wave analysis, and begin with a quote from Paul Tudor Jones, one of the most successful money managers of all time:
"I attribute a lot of my success to Elliot Wave Theory. It allows one to create incredibly favorable risk reward opportunities"
Back in the 1930’s, an accountant named Ralph Nelson Elliott identified that markets represent unconscious, non-rational reactions which follow a repeating fractal pattern, which means they move in variably self-similar patterns at all degree of trends. This repeating fractal pattern represents overall societal sentiment which is governed by the natural law of the universe as represented through Fibonacci Mathematics.
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Tuesday, September 17, 2024
If The Stock Market Turn Quickly, How Bad Can Things Get? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Kelsey_Williams
HOW BAD CAN THINGS GET?
Pretty damn bad. Which means that it will likely be much worse than most of us can imagine. Other than Covid and its forced shutdown of economic activity by governments world-wide, the most recent learning experience for investors is the Great Recession of 2007-09. Beginning in October 2007 and ending in February 2009, the S&P 500 Index lost 53%…
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Friday, September 06, 2024
Stocks Face Uncertainty Following Sell-Off / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Paul_Rejczak
My speculative short position in the S&P 500 futures contract from August 20, opened at the 5,626 level, is in profit.
Wednesday’s trading session saw a slight rebound of the S&P 500 index, but it closed 0.16% lower, hovering near its short-term low following Tuesday’s decline of over 2%. The index broke below its recent trading range on Tuesday, which could signal the start of a new short-term downtrend, though it currently looks like a downward correction.
This morning, futures contracts indicate the index will open 0.2% lower, reacting to economic data: a lower-than-expected ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and a slightly weaker Unemployment Claims report.
Friday, August 30, 2024
Stocks Likely to Extend Consolidation: Topping Pattern Forming? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Paul_Rejczak
Wednesday’s trading session brought declines for the stock market, but overall, the market remained within its short-term consolidation. The S&P 500 index lost 0.6% after rebounding from the daily low of around 5,561. The eagerly-awaited NVDA earnings didn’t change much, although today, the market is set to open 0.2% higher, retracing some of yesterday’s decline and further extending its consolidation.
Last Wednesday, I wrote “Recently, the market has continued to climb following the brief Yen crisis at the start of August, surprising many traders. The question is whether the market will continue to new highs or reverse course and retrace the recent rally. I think there is a chance the market will reverse its course and correct some of the advances, retracing a large part of the rally.”
Investor sentiment remains elevated, as shown by the yesterday’s AAII Investor Sentiment Survey, which showed that 51.2% of individual investors are bullish, while 27.0% of them are bearish – up from 23.7% last week.
Friday, August 30, 2024
Why Stock-Market Success Is Usually Only Temporary / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: EWI
Here's a sample of record sentiment readings for stocks
Recession coming or not, people are still EXTREMELY bullish.
Read this excerpt from the May 17, 2024 Elliott Wave Theorist:
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Friday, August 16, 2024
Is Stocks Rally Showing Signs of Exhaustion? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Paul_Rejczak
Stocks further accelerated their uptrend yesterday, with the S&P 500 index closing 1.61% and reaching new local highs above the 5,500 level. The market has retraced almost all of its declines from the August 1 local high of 5,566.16. The rebound surprised a majority of traders and the question is: Will the market go straight to new highs, or will it reverse at some point and retrace the rally? For now, there have been no confirmed negative signals; however, this morning, the S&P 500 is likely to open 0.6% lower, as indicated by futures contracts.
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Thursday, August 15, 2024
We got the Stock Market Selloff — Now what? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Submissions
Editor’s note: Today, RiskHedge Executive Editor Chris Reilly sits down with Stephen McBride to discuss the recent market selloff and what investors should expect leading up to the US presidential election...
***
Chris Reilly: Stephen, we got the selloff you’ve been anticipating.
Here’s your warning from June:
Markets aren’t usually this easy or consistent. And remember, in an average year, the S&P 500 suffers a decline of 14%. My guess is we’ll get a correction in that ballpark sometime before November’s election.
Monday, August 12, 2024
Stock Market Mainstream Financial Media Narratives vs Reality / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
So much for the "Sell in May and go Away" narrative that gets peddled out each year. Near term the S&P has basically traded sideways for the past 3 weeks nevertheless the stock market has delivered opportunities galore to both trim and accumulate in key target stocks such as buying the dips in ADSK, DIOD, and GPN and selling the rips in TSM, Qualcom and WDC, whilst seeking to capitalise on opportunities presented by the plunge in cloud computing stocks such as CRM, VEEV, Adobe, and SNOW of which SNOW is the bigger gamble of the bunch.
Current state of the stock market is that the S&P put in a new all time high of 5373, which is what tends to happen during a bull market as I often state that the risk is to the upside.
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Monday, August 12, 2024
Stock Market Rollercoaster: Analyzing the Recent Meltdown and Recovery / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: MoneyMetals
The financial landscape experienced a seismic shift last week, reminiscent of hitting rumble strips on the interstate—jerking investors awake to the underlying economic dangers.
Monday’s drastic stock market selloff, triggered by various catalysts, left investors reeling, though the panic seemed to abate by week's end. But is everything truly back to normal, or was this a premonition of more significant issues to come?
Monday, August 12, 2024
Stocks Rebounded: What’s Next? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Paul_Rejczak
Tuesday's trading session was mixed; stock prices bounced, but they closed well below the daily highs. The S&P 500 reached a local high of 5,312.34 but closed more than 70 points below that level, gaining 'just' 1.04%. Overnight, calming words from the Bank of Japan were released, and this morning, the S&P 500 is likely to open 1.0% higher in another attempt to retrace more of its recent sell-off.
Before the current turmoil, investor sentiment had slightly improved last week, as indicated by the last Wednesday's AAII Investor Sentiment Survey, which showed that 44.9% of individual investors are bullish, while only 25.2% of them are bearish – down from 31.7% last week.