Category: Stock Market 2021
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Friday, April 23, 2021
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Watch Out For The “Bear Market” / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Avi_Gilburt
Throughout the years I have been writing on Seeking Alpha, many readers have recognized that we have been quite accurate in our market prognostications, yet they have had a hard time understanding the lens through which I view the markets.
I want to first start by stating that in all the years I have been doing research and analysis into financial markets, I have not found a single form of analysis that provides market context as does Elliott Wave analysis. In fact, it was the reason I was so confident in my expectation that the market would exceed the 4000SPX region even though we were down in the 2200SPX region last year.
So, before I move into my discussion of a “bear market,” I wanted to take a moment to again reference the six-part series I wrote, which explains not only the application of my analysis methodology, but also provides you with the background and theory behind the methodology: https://www.elliottwavetrader.net/market-update/Elliott-Wave-Series-Part-1-201808184848063.html
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Thursday, April 22, 2021
Dow Stock Market Dow Trend Forecast Current State / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
My trend forecast for 2021 as of the 8th of Feb analysis Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2021 is for a bull run to Dow 35k punctuated by a summer correction beginning early May as illustrated by the forecast graph for a gain of about 15% on the year.
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Tuesday, April 20, 2021
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: You May Not Believe My 2021 Targets / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Avi_Gilburt
Ever since the market crash in February and March of 2020, so many investors, authors and analysts have been on high alert for the next shoe to drop.
In fact, I can no longer count how many articles (along with comments) I have read which have called this market one name or another, while looking for the next crash. While such descriptive name calling included a “bubble,” or “topping,” or having gone “too far too fast,” or “not supported by the fundamentals,” or having an “overly heated PE ratio,” it is clear that this rally has taken many by surprise, and many still do not believe in its ability to continue on further.
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Tuesday, April 20, 2021
Stock Market Phase Two Projection / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into the first half of 2021 before major cycles take over and it comes to an end.
SPX Intermediate trend: SPX has completed the next phase of its intermediate uptrend and should correct.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.
Monday, April 19, 2021
8 Stock Market Indicators in 1: Here's the Message of the Panic/Euphoria Model / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: EWI
Prior model extremes occurred in March 2000 and October 2007
Elliott Wave International has been providing market analysis for more than four decades -- which includes many bull/bear market cycles.
That said, the public's current market mindset -- especially among inexperienced investors -- is a reminder of the extremes surrounding the 2000 market top, and a few others.
For example, a February 27 MarketWatch headline said:
A new wave of fearless retail investors is ready to pour $170 billion into stocks ...
Also, according to an early February Deutsche Bank survey of online brokerage users, 61% are under 34 years of age and 45% are in their first year of investing.
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Sunday, April 18, 2021
State of the European Markets - DAX, FTSE, CAC, AEX, SMI, IBEX 35, S&P/MIB, Euro Stoxx 50, RTS / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: EWI
Dear reader,
In many ways, over the past year Europe had it tougher than the rest.
And now, with the slow vaccine roll-out and calls for new lockdowns, things look shaky.
Despite all that, European stocks have powered on. The DAX even hit a record high!
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Friday, April 16, 2021
US Stocks Climb A “Wall Of Worry” To New Highs / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Low volume rallies have become a standard of trending recently. We see higher volume when volatility kicks in near areas of broad market volatility. Otherwise, we see lower volume trending push the prices higher recently in a “melt-up” type of mode.
Two recent standout events confirm this type of trending and volatility phases of the markets: (1) the September 2020 to early November 2020 (pre-US Election) rotation in price; and (2) the recent February 2021 to late March 2021 sideways price rotation related to the FOMC meeting/comments. Both of these events centered around external market components and prompted an extended period of price volatility related to uncertainty. After these events passed, price fell back into a low volume rally mode for many months, where most of the actual price gains happened.
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Friday, April 16, 2021
Many Stock Market Sectors Are Primed For Another Breakout Rally – Are You? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
As we start moving into the Q1:2021 earnings season, we need to be aware of the risks associated with the volatility often associated with earnings data and unknowns. Nonetheless, there are other factors that appear to be present in current trends which suggest earnings may prompt a moderately strong upside breakout rally – again.
One key factor is that the US markets are already starting to price in forwarding expectations related to a reflation economy – a post-COVID acceleration in activity, consumer participation, and manufacturing. Secondarily, we must also consider the continued stimulus efforts, easy monetary policy from the US Fed, and the continued trending related to the 12+ month long COVID-19 recovery rally.
In some ways, any damage to the economy related to COVID-19 may have already happened well over 6+ months ago. Certainly, there are other issues we are still dealing with and recovering from, but the strength of the US economy since May/June of 2020 has been incredible. When we combine the strength of the economic recovery with the extended support provided by the US Fed and US government stimulus/policy efforts, we are left with only one conclusion: the markets will likely continue to rally until something stops this trend.
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Friday, April 16, 2021
Still a Bullish Fever in Stocks? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 went nowhere yesterday – just like the prior Monday, heavy buying into Friday‘s close met no follow-up the day after. After almost touching 16 to close the week, VIX peeked higher yesterday only to reverse back down. Nice try but if you look at the put/call ratio turning down simulatenously, the alarm bells are far from ringing.
The S&P 500 rise of late isn‘t without its good share of non-confirmations though. The ones seen in Russell 2000 and emerging markets got a fresh company in the corporate credit markets. No denying that the stock market is in a strong uptrend, but it got a bit too stretched vs. its 50-day moving average – a consolidation in short order would be a healthy move, but the CPI readings above expectations don‘t favor one today.
If you look at the put/call ratio again, its lows throughout Mar and Apr haven‘t been reaching the really exuberant levels of prior months, hinting at a less steep path of S&P 500 gains. And what about the volume print as stocks went about making new highs? Not encouraging either, and it‘s not that rising yields would be causing trouble:
Thursday, April 15, 2021
Time For A Stock Market Melt-Up / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Avi_Gilburt
While I cannot tell you with certainty that we are about to see a market melt-up, I can tell you that the setup is now in place to melt up to the 4400SPX region through the spring.
Before I go into my expectations, there are a few issues I would like to address, which seem to almost always come up in the comments section to my articles.
Many of you have taken strong exception to the fact that I really do not bother with the news. Your perspectives are often based upon your personal experience of seeing the markets move when news is announced. So, you assume that the substance of the news is always the driver of the market move. And, this makes you view my perspective as quite untenable.
So, allow me to explain my perspective in a bit more detail, and maybe you will begin to understand.
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Wednesday, April 14, 2021
The SPY Is Nearing Resistance @ $410… What Is Next? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
My shorter-term analysis for the markets continues to stay Bullish and suggests the US reflation trade, the strengthening of the US and the global economy, and recovery from the COVID-19 restrictions will likely prompt a moderately strong upside price trend leading into at least mid Q2:2021. The recent strength of the US Dollar is helping to push capital into the US markets as foreign investors attempt to shift capital away from Emerging Market and currency weakness and the Treasury Yield rallies seem to have indicated a moderate warning related to global central banks attempting to front-run inflation concerns.
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Wednesday, April 14, 2021
The Curious Stock Market Staircase Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
Another day of tiny S&P 500 gains defying gravity, boosted by overnight price action. Well, liquidity overpowering junk corporate bonds opening with a bullish gap only to partially close it. With some credit market hints at deterioration present, the yen carry trade is getting a new lease on life today, and that‘s generally bullish for risk-on assets such as stocks – but not really for precious metals.
With all the Fed support, the Powell bid is in, affecting „traditional“ sectoral dynamics of rotation. Value is probably about to feel the heat if you look at the very long lower knot in financials (XLF ETF) yesterday. Yes, this interest rate sensitive sector still rose in the face of long-dated Treasuries‘ gains. Needless to say, technology loved that, and its heavyweights ($NYFANG) keep driving the sector up. It looks to be a question of time before Tesla (TSLA) joins – Square (SQ) already did.
The key question is the rotation‘s degree – now that the yields appear ready to retreat still a little more (the 10-year yield appears targeting the low 1.50% figure if not declining further), which is what technology anticipates even though utilities and consumer staples have been dragging their feet a little lately. But value stocks aren‘t selling off in the least (yet?). Is the TINA still strongly in effect when those stock market segments that could have been expected under more stringent monetary policy to be sold, aren‘t no more? Rising tide lifting really all boats – in stocks.
Wednesday, April 14, 2021
Stocks are Heating Up / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Paul_Rejczak
In keeping with its historical performance, April has started off white-hot. We ended March, and Q1 for that matter, with more questions than answers.
But April 2021 started with a blowout jobs report, and the indices haven't looked back since. Right now, the S&P 500 is at yet another record, the Dow is just about at a record, and we've seen a furious comeback for Big Tech and growth stocks.
The sentiment is certainly better now than it was just a couple of weeks ago. However, I implore you to remember that every month in 2021 thus far has started off hot and saw a pullback/volatility occur in the second half of the month.
Think about it. In January, we had the GameStop trade spooking investors. In February and March, we had surging bond yields, inflation fears, or Jay Powell comments that rubbed people the wrong way. These concerns won't just disappear because we want them to. If we could make things magically disappear, COVID would've been over yesterday.
Tuesday, April 13, 2021
Stock Market Minor Correction Due / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into the first half of 2021 before major cycles take over and it comes to an end.
SPX Intermediate trend: SPX is in the next phase of its intermediate uptrend.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.
Daily market analysis of the short-term trend is reserved for subscribers. If you would like to sign up for a FREE 2-week trial period of daily comments, please let me know at anvi1962@cableone.net
Monday, April 12, 2021
Why These Stock Market Indicators Should Grab Your Full Attention / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: EWI
The McClellan Summation Index has been "in a clearly defined downtrend since late December"
Many Main Street investors only pay attention to the daily trading closes of the main stock indexes.
But those who fall in that camp are missing out on a lot of valuable insights regarding the strength or weakness of a trend. In other words, when it comes to the stock market, it pays to "look under the hood."
For example, on Friday (March 26), all three major indexes rallied with the S&P 500 climbing 1.7% to hit a record closing high. Those who glance at the stock market headlines may have concluded "all systems go."
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Friday, April 09, 2021
Stock Market On the Verge of a Pullback / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 is still consolidating Monday‘s sharp gains, showered with liquidity. Yet it seems that eking out further gains is getting harder as the price action took the index quite far from its key moving averages. If I had to pick one sign of stiffer headwinds ahead, it would be the tech sector‘s reaction to another daily retreat in Treasury yields – the sector didn‘t rally, and neither did the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Value stocks saved the day, and it appears we‘re about to see them start doing better again, relatively speaking.
Yes, the risk-reward ratio for the bulls is at unsavory levels in the short run. What about being short at this moment then? It all depends upon the trading style, risk tolerance and time horizon. I‘m not looking for stocks making a major top here as the bull run is intact thanks to:
(..) Well, liquidity and bets on the stocks benefiting from the coming infrastructure bill.
Any way you look at it, the market breadth is positive and ready to support the coming upswing continuation, even though I look for a largely sideways day in stocks on Tuesday given the aptly called fireworks to happen yesterday. Sizable long profits in stock market trades #6 and #7 have been taken off the table – 149 points in my Standard money managements, and 145 points in the Advanced money management that comes on top.
My prognosis for yesterday‘s session materialized, and we have seen quite a record number (around 95%) of stocks trading above their 200-day moving averages, which is similar to the setup right after the post-dotcom bubble bear market 2002/3 lows, or 1-2 years after the bull market run off the Mar 2009 lows. Hard to say which one is more hated, but I see the run from Mar 2020 generational low as the gold medal winner, especially given the denial accompanying it since.
Thursday, April 08, 2021
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2021 - Crash or Continuing Bull Run? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This video presents the final forecast conclusion in a detailed stock market trend forecast for 2021 , extensive analysis of which was first been made available to Patrons who support my work.
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Thursday, April 08, 2021
Don’t Be Fooled by the Stock Market Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: MoneyMetals
Markets tend to move in cycles. They typically experience cyclical pullbacks after trending higher for a long period of time. Rarely do markets move straight up or straight down.
The stock market has, however, essentially moved straight up since the March 2020 mini-crash. As the market moves higher, an increasing number of “analysts” are calling for even higher equity prices.
Just last week, in fact, an analyst called for the broad market S&P 500 index to double by 2030.
Calls for an 8000 S&P do not seem quite as farfetched as they did just a year ago. That is the power of greed (and wishful thinking) at work.
Thursday, April 08, 2021
Stock Market New S&P 500 Highs or Metals Rising? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
Bullish run in stocks is on, driven by tech gains and value not yielding an inch. A rare constellation given the the long-dated Treasuries performance especially – as if the narratives were flipped, and value „could“ move up on rising yields. Well, liquidity and bets on the stocks benefiting from the coming infrastructure bill.
Any way you look at it, the market breadth is positive and ready to support the coming upswing continuation, even though I look for a largely sideways day in stocks on Tuesday given the aptly called fireworks to happen yesterday. Sizable long profits in stock market trades #6 and #7 have been taken off the table – 149 points in my Standard money managements, and 145 points in the Advanced money management that comes on top.
Both the VIX and put/call ratio are at extended levels – the first below 18 (formerly unimaginable to stock market non-bulls), the second approaching local lows again. As I have written yesterday:
(…) Throughout the markets, risk-on has been making a return as long-dated Treasury yields retreated, dollar fell and commodities continue their bullish flag formation. As I have tweeted on Thursday, it were the investment grade corporate bonds that signalled the turnaround in yields spreading to TLT next. Given such a constellation, the dollar‘s appeal is taking a dive as the bond market gets its reprieve. When nominal yields retreat while inflation (and inflation expectations) keep rising, real rates decline, and that leads to dollar‘s decline.
Tuesday, April 06, 2021
Stock Market Pushing Higher / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into the first half of 2021 before major cycles take over and it comes to an end.
SPX Intermediate trend: SPX is starting on the next phase of its intermediate uptrend.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.