Category: Gold & Silver 2020
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Thursday, February 27, 2020
Gold and Silver The Die Is Cast / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: The_Gold_Report
Sector expert Michael Ballanger charts the latest changes in the markets and prognosticates on when and why silver prices should make a move.
One of my good friends from the 1980s and 1990s was the late Ian McAvity, a superb technical analyst, a founder of Central Fund of Canada, a Bay Street Mover and, most importantly, a humble and thoroughly enjoyable man. He was the first newsletter writer that I came across in my early years as a "registered rep," totally committed to technical analysis but with an undying and near-prophetical emphasis on precious metals.
It was in the 1980s, with gold having entered what would become a 21-year bear market. Many of the newsletter-flogging gloom-and-doomsters were making outrageous claims of "$1,000, $2000, $5,000 gold!!!" in a desperate (and unsuccessful) effort to distract their patrons away from the fledgling new bull market in stocks, which went on to dominate the investment horizons until the century came to its abrupt terminus. I liked Ian's style because in the mid-1980s, his bearish technical assessment of gold turned out to be not only disappointedly spot on, but also quite a refreshingly contrarian approach.
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Wednesday, February 26, 2020
Gold Price Long-term Trend Analysis Forecast 2020 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The gold bull market ended 2019 with a strong gain of 19%. The first half the year was marked with uncertainty as the price after an early year surge to $1350 gave up all of it's gains to drift lower to trade down on the year by early May. However, this was the calm before the bull market storm and that set the stage for a powerful bull run starting early June that saw the Gold price rocket higher to a early September peak of $1566, up over 25% on the year! Igniting Gold bug fever and encouraging prominent gold bugs to get carried away with headlines of Gold heading for $5000 and beyond.
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Wednesday, February 26, 2020
Gold Is Taking on $1,700 amid Rising Coronavirus Fears / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Gold rally goes on, reaching almost $1,700 per ounce. What the heck is just happening in the precious metals market?
Gold Rallies Above $1,680
Wow, what an escalation! On Thursday, we reported that gold jumped above $1,600. On Friday, its price surpassed $1,640, as the chart below shows. And today morning, it has rallied even further, reaching $1,684.
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Wednesday, February 26, 2020
Gold Minsky Moment Coming / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Richard_Mills
“Minsky Moment” refers to the idea that periods of bullish speculation will eventually lead to a crisis, wherein a sudden decline in optimism causes a spectacular market crash.
Named after economist Hyman Minsky, the theory centers around the inherent instability of stock markets, especially bull markets such as the current one that has been in place for over a decade.
As Investopedia defines it, “A Minsky Moment crisis follows a prolonged period of bullish speculation, which is also associated with high amounts of debt taken on by both retail and institutional investors.”
The Levy Economics Institute of Bard College describes his seminal theory as follows:
“Minsky held that, over a prolonged period of prosperity, investors take on more and more risk, until lending exceeds what borrowers can pay off from their incoming revenues. When overindebted investors are forced to sell even their less-speculative positions to make good on their loans, markets spiral lower and create a severe demand for cash — an event that has come to be known as a ‘Minsky moment.”
There are five stages in Minsky’s model of the credit cycle:
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Monday, February 24, 2020
Sustained Silver Rally Coming? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Hubert_Moolman
Silver is still in consolidation mode since early September, but it appears ready to rally over a sustained period of time.
On the chart there appears to have formed some fractals. The current one has also broken out at the black line recently (just after point C).
As expected, price survived the test of the 50-day moving average, and is looking really bullish.
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Monday, February 24, 2020
Should Investors Worry about Repo Market and Buy Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
$500 billion. This is the sum the Fed has already pumped into the repo market since the crisis there started. On September 17, 2019, the secured overnight funding rate – a broad measure of the cost of borrowing cash overnight collateralized by Treasury securities, based on the repurchase transactions – more than doubled, as the chart below shows, while the intraday range jumped to about 700 basis points! As a reminder, we are talking about the repo market, where interest rates usually fluctuate in an intraday range of 10, or at most 20 basis points.
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Monday, February 24, 2020
Gold Above $1,600 Amid FOMC Minutes and Coronavirus Impact / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Ladies and Gentleman, gold has overcome yet another barrier, jumping above $1,600 amid the fresh FOMC minutes and the renewed fears about the coronavirus economic consequences. What’s next for the yellow metal?
Fed More Optimistic about Global Economy
Gold bulls can be happy. As the chart below shows, the yellow metal has jumped above $1,600 amid the FOMC minutes and concerns about the coronavirus. Let’s now analyze these two important developments.
Sunday, February 23, 2020
Gold Price At $1500 Is Fair And Accurate / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Kelsey_Williams
Is $1500 a reasonable price for gold? Some of the more ardent gold “bulls” might say no. A price of $2000 per ounce should sound better to them. That particular number is likely more popular because gold’s price didn’t quite get there eight years ago, stopping just shy of $1900 per ounce.
Similar behavior occurred after 1980, when gold’s price assent was stopped at $850. At that time, $1000 became the price projection of choice.
In both cases, the expectations for gold were likely born out of desire, rather than fundamentals.
So, how can we know what is a fair and accurate price for gold today – right now?
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Saturday, February 22, 2020
Gold Warning – This is Not a Buying Opportunity / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Gold rallied by $17.20 yesterday (1.08%), while silver soared by $0.42 (2.35%), which means that silver more than doubled gold’s rally. Silver is outperforming gold, which was both profitable, and informative. Gold miners moved higher even more (4.60% in case of the HUI Index), indicating that the final part of the rally is not yet over but rather that we are still in it. Alternatively, it could mean that yesterday’s session was the top, but given today’s pre-market moves higher in gold and silver, the former seems much more likely. In other words, gold and silver are likely to move higher shortly.
One question is how far are they likely to move, but the key question is how likely it is that they will indeed move higher.
At first sight, the situation is as bullish as it gets:
- the USD Index might be topping here while being very overbought from the short-term point of view
- gold, silver, and mining stocks showed exceptional strength by rallying despite USD’s rally
- gold and silver broke above their declining resistance lines
- miners showed strength and created a bullish price gap yesterday
Indeed, these are all factors that will likely make one consider jumping in the precious metals market with both feet without warm-up. Caution is warranted, though. There are also other factors and a what-if case that’s becoming increasingly important that need to be considered. While at it, take a look at the other gold trading tips to consider.
Let’s start with the last two points.
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Thursday, February 20, 2020
Trump and Economic News That Drive Gold, Not Just Coronavirus / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Coronavirus, the topic du jour. It is still the major threat for the global health and economy. But we should not forget about other geopolitical and economic developments. What do they imply for the gold market?
Coronavirus, China’s Economy and Gold Prices
The number of cases of coronavirus reported by the WHO have increased from 45,171 cases and 1,115 deaths by February 12 to 51,867 cases and 1,669 deaths by February 16, 2020. However, the number of new cases is slowing down, which suggests that the epidemic could reach a turning point within weeks. This is of key importance not only for the global health but also for the global economy, as the sooner the epidemic is over, the quicker China’s economy will recover. As a reminder, the quarantines of the whole cities like Wuhan and other compulsory measures disrupted the supply chains and hampered the Chinese economy.
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Thursday, February 20, 2020
Silver’s Valuable Insights Into the Upcoming PMs Rally / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: P_Radomski_CFA
The analysis of the precious metals market isn’t just gold analysis – there are times when silver rises to the forefront of everyone’s attention. And we fully expect such a moment of the white metal stealing the spotlight to arrive shortly. What lessons can we draw from the silver chart?
The key analogy in silver (in addition to the situation being similar to mid-90s) continues to be the one between 2008 and the 2016 – now periods.
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Wednesday, February 19, 2020
David Smith: Future Silver Prices Will Shock People, and They’ll Kick Themselves for Not Buying Under $20… / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: MoneyMetals
Mike Gleason: It is my privilege now to welcome back David Smith, Senior Analyst at The Morgan Report and regular contributor to MoneyMetals.com. David, it's good to talk to you as always and how are you my friend?
David Smith: I'm just fine and it's great to be back, Mike.
Mike Gleason: Yeah, well it's been a handful of months since we had you on, and I've got a lot of topics to discuss today so we'll get right into it. Now to start out, here we are about a month and a half into the new year. Metals prices perked up in December but haven't really done much since that first week in January when it looked like we were about to head to war with Iran, which was a short-lived crisis thankfully. But in our view, markets are incredibly complacent, David. Stock prices just keep moving higher and higher. Nobody seems to be worried about risk, this despite there being plenty of reason for concern. To name a few, we've got a virus outbreak. There continues to be extraordinary activity in the repo markets – officials still haven't really bothered to explain what's going on there. And Brexit is finally happening. Maybe we're missing something, but it really feels like markets ignore all this stuff completely.
Tuesday, February 18, 2020
Gold Price Is Getting Ready For Its Next Breakout / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Avi_Gilburt
In late October and again in November, I began preparing my subscribers for the last rally phase we experienced in the metals complex. I even penned a number of public articles outlining my expectations for the same. In fact, on November 11, I published an article entitled "Gold Is Likely Approaching A Local Bottom." As we now know, gold actually struck its bottom at the time within 24 hours of that article. And, I then reiterated my expectations in a blog post at the end of November entitled "Buy Gold On Black Friday." Even at that time, the GLD was in the 137 region before it began its run almost 10% higher since that time.
Then, on January 5 of this year, I published another article entitled "We Are Approaching A Pullback In Gold."
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Friday, February 14, 2020
Will the 2020s Be Good or Bad for the Gold Market? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
2010s have certainly been a roller coaster ride for gold. Will the 2020s then be better than the prior years for the yellow metal? Today’s article provides the macroeconomic outlook for the full decade – learn whether the fundamental factors will become in the 2020s less or more friendly toward gold.
People often ask about my economic forecasts for the current year, whether the recession will come or not, etc. I reply that I’m an economist, not a fortune teller. As future is inherently unpredictable, I don’t like the traditional January game of economic forecasting for the year ahead and I avoid providing detailed price predictions. So, my Readers can be surprised by the title of this article – if I don’t like forecasting one year ahead, why the heck I would be forecasting the whole decade?
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Friday, February 14, 2020
Predictive Modeling Suggests Gold Price Will Break Above $1650 Within 15~30 Days / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our Adaptive Dynamic Learning predictive modeling system is suggesting Gold will rally above $1650 within the next 2 to 4 weeks, then settle into a narrow price range above $1600. If you’ve followed our analysis of Gold over the past few months and years, you already know we expect Gold to rally above $1750 this year and to continue to move higher attempting to breach the $2100 level. It is just a matter of time as far as we are concerned where Metals begin a massive upside rally as the global debt markets become an issue throughout the world.
Right now, there is a very clear opportunity for Gold to rally nearly $100 over the next few weeks. Our ADL predictive modeling system is suggesting this really should begin very soon and will likely propel the price of Gold to levels above $1640 before March 15. Of course, as we’ve seen before if price stays below the $1600 level for another few weeks, this will set up a “price anomaly” where the price will, at some point, attempt to rally very aggressively to the upside to make up the difference.
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Friday, February 14, 2020
Coronavirus, Powell and Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Coronavirus, Powell and Gold
The number of cases and deaths by the new coronavirus have escalated quickly. However, the fears subsided and the stock market rebounded. How did gold perform, and what can we expect from the king of metals next?
Should We Stop Worrying about the Coronavirus?
Well, that was a quick escalation. On February 2, when we wrote the first Fundamental Gold Report about the coronavirus, there were 14,557 confirmed cases and 305 deaths. Yesterday, the World Health Organization reported almost 45,171 cases and 1115 deaths. So, the number of infections and death toll of coronavirus have surged in recent days. Moreover, China has changed today its diagnosis methodology (to include “clinically diagnosed” cases), confirming 15,152 new cases and 254 additional deaths. Hence, as the chart below shows, the total number of cases in China has reached 59,800, while the global number has already surpassed 60,000.
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Wednesday, February 12, 2020
Will USD X Decline About to Trigger Precious Metals Rally? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Although its decline was not yet significant, the USD Index finally declined yesterday. Given the recent breakout above the November 2019 highs, this move lower might leave one with mixed feelings.
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Wednesday, February 12, 2020
Is Coronavirus the Black Swan That Takes Gold To-Da-Moon? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Amid the worries about the coronavirus and its impact on the global economy, the US yield curve has briefly inverted again. Recession, anyone? And what exactly does the inversion imply for the gold market?
Yield Curve Inverts Again
Ooops, it happened again – the yield curve has inverted! Please take a look at the chart below. It shows that at the turn of January and February, the spread between 10-year and 3-month Treasuries has dived below zero once again. It stayed below zero only for a couple of days before moving back into the positive territory. The inversion was shallow as the level of the spread did not plunge below minus 0.4.
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Tuesday, February 11, 2020
JPMorgan chase Confirmed as Target of Precious Metals Price Rigging Prosecution / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: MoneyMetals
The U.S. Department of Justice investigation of criminal activity in the precious metals markets has taken an interesting new turn.
According to Bloomberg, prosecutors are targeting the bank itself and not just the individual traders involved in rigging prices. If convicted, the bank as an institution could be held accountable for years of structured and pervasive cheating.
The DOJ investigation of JPMorgan’s metals trading desk began more than two years ago. It came on the heels of a guilty plea by Deutsche Bank.
Sunday, February 09, 2020
Could Silver Break-out like it did in 2011? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Richard_Mills
Silver is expected to begin the 2020s newly burnished, through a combination of higher industrial and investment demand, and tightened supply owing to mine production issues and output cuts. If it does, it would be the continuation of a trend that started last year.
2019 was an excellent year for gold and silver. Both metals began to run last summer after the US Federal Reserve started cutting interest rates. In July the Fed lowered rates three times before freezing the (benchmark) federal funds rate at a range of 1.5 - 1.75% in November. The market is reportedly expecting multiple cuts in 2020.
That, along with similarly dovish policies among other central banks, a record $17-trillion of negative-yielding sovereign bonds, and fresh safe haven demand due to tensions with Iran, and a lack of progress on trade talks, to name two key issues, powered precious metals to new heights.
Spot gold and silver both peaked in early September at a respective $1,552.00/oz and $19.67/oz. Taking a long-term view of silver and gold prices reveals that the precious metals move in almost identical patterns. Over the last year gold and silver have each gained about 25% (trough to peak); over the last five years gold gained 45% to silver’s 40%.
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