Category: Gold & Silver 2020
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Thursday, May 14, 2020
Silver's Massive Undervaluation Relative to Gold Makes It Irresistible / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: The_Gold_Report
Technical analyst Clive Maund explains why he's bullish on silver. The way you see silver now depends on whether you see a glass that is half empty or half full. If you are a pessimist by nature you will be grumbling about its underperformance relative to gold up to this point, but if you are an optimist, as we certainly are with regards to silver, you will see it as maintaining the opportunity to pick it up cheap before it really takes off higher in a big way, which as we will now proceed to see is a fast growing probability.
We have been wary of silver and silver investments in the recent past with good reason, because if another deflationary downwave hit, silver was in position to get really beaten back down into the dust, as we can see on its latest 6-month chart below. After being smashed in March when the stock market tanked, it staged a recovery, but started looking decidedly timorous as it approached a zone of heavy resistance in April and its unfavorably aligned moving averages. It was set up to take another severe beating in the event of the stock market tipping into another downwave, especially as it has been forced gradually lower by its falling 50-day moving average over the past several weeks.
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Thursday, May 14, 2020
Will Job Market from Hell Support Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
April job report shows a terrible US labor market. Coronavirus destroyed 20.5 million jobs, pushing the unemployment rate to almost 15 percent. How far does the number reflect reality – and what does it actually mean for the gold market?
Apocalypse in the US Labor Market
14.7 percent. Remember this value well, as it will go down in history. This is the official US unemployment rate for April calculated by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The unemployment rate soared from 3.5 percent in February and 4.4 percent in March. As the chart below shows, the spike is really historic, as such high level has not been seen in modern history.
Thursday, May 14, 2020
The US Dollar or Silver: Place Your Bet / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Hubert_Moolman
Over the last 50 years there have virtually been no significant Silver rallies during a period when the US Dollar index has been rising.
If you are betting on a massive Silver rally while US dollar strength continues, then you have a very low probability of success. Similarly, if you bet on a massive Silver rally while the US dollar continues a long decline, then you have a great chance of success.
So, for the Silver investor, what the US Dollar index might do over the coming years, is a very important question to answer. No surprise here, since the US dollar has been 100% debased (of Silver).
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Tuesday, May 12, 2020
Gold Investors Shouldn’t Be Losing Focus / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: P_Radomski_CFA
The recent volatility in most markets was really extreme, which means that it was easy to lose focus on the things that matter the most in case of the gold market. It was relatively easy to keep one’s focus as far as the fundamental outlook for gold is concerned – it’s quite obvious that the economies around the world are in deep trouble and that the various QEs and money-printing mechanisms are likely to be inflationary, which together is likely to result in stagflation – which gold loves.
On the other hand, it was easy to lose focus with regard to one of gold’s key short- and medium-term drivers – the USD Index. If the USD Index soars, then gold is likely to plunge in the short run, regardless of how favorable other fundamentals are.
Consequently, in today’s free article, we’ll discuss the situation in the USD Index, with emphasis on two key similarities.
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Tuesday, May 12, 2020
Gold in the year of the Coronavirus Pandemic / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Michael_J_Kosares
What it cannot do is cure the virus. What it could do, however, according to a good many analysts, is act as an effective hedge against its economic consequences. Since the beginning of the year through April, the metal was up 11.73% during probably the worst period in economic history since the 1930s Great Depression. Below we chronicle what top experts have to say about gold in the year of the pandemic – its portfolio role, its qualities as a disaster hedge, and its price potential.
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Monday, May 11, 2020
Hi Ho Silver : Away! / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Rambus_Chartology
Tonight I would like to focus in on silver which remains one of the best bargains in the PM complex right now. When I first became acquainted with the PM complex back in early 2002 I learned quickly that just because gold may have had a good rally sometimes the PM stocks move very little which was confusing to me as I thought they should move in tandem. Then there were other times when the PM stocks would rally and gold didn’t move that much. It didn’t make a lot of sense at the time, but markets can be fickle like that.
Another thing I noticed back then was that silver was very weak and wouldn’t respond at all if the PM stock and gold were in rally mode. That has stuck with me all these years. Currently with the PM complex bottoming on March 23 we are seeing a similar scenario playing out where gold and the PM stocks are having a decent rally but silver is still lagging very badly. The thing about silver is that once it’s ready to move the rallies and declines for that matter, can be breathtaking. When the PM complex ended their bull market in 2011 silver was the first one to complete its bull market in April of 2011 while gold and the PM stock indexes didn’t complete their bull market until September a full 5 months later.
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Monday, May 11, 2020
The Big Move In Silver May Be Right Now / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
For many years now, metals traders and enthusiasts have been patiently waiting for the move in Silver that we feel its eventually going to happen.
There is almost a ritual process in the metals market that takes place when a crisis happens. We’ve written about this in a past article and we’ve highlighted how we believe Silver is one of the absolute best opportunities if/once it breaks out. It goes something like this…
A. Silver is often an overlooked “little cousin” to other precious metals like Gold and Platinum. Many traders would rather trade/acquire Gold vs. Silver.
B. When a crisis begins to happen, both Gold and Silver tend to collapse an initially as the shock to the markets translates into sales of precious metals to improve cash/margin requirements.
C. As the crisis continues to unfold, Gold will typically begin a sustained upside price move over many months where Silver may move very little to the upside. This creates a massive peak in the Gold to Silver ratio.
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Sunday, May 10, 2020
Coronapocalypse and Gold - How High Is Too High for the Yellow Metal? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
$2,000, $5,000 or even the Jim Rickard’s $50,000 as the next target for gold. How realistic are these figures – could we see the yellow metal at $5,000 or even higher amid the coronavirus crisis? We invite you thus to read our today’s article and find out how high gold prices can go in this downturn.
The first quarter of 2020 was clearly positive for the gold market, as the chart below shows. The yellow metal gained 6.2 percent from December 30, 2019 to March 31, 2020, moving from $1,515 to $1,609. In April, the bullion went up even further to $1,693, increasing gains to 11.7 percent in 2020 (as of April 17).
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Sunday, May 10, 2020
The Illusion of Owning Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Nick_Barisheff
Gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and similar products account for a significant part of the gold market, with institutional and individual investors using them to implement many of their investment strategies without considering the true risk associated with many aspects of holding non-tangible assets. Gold ETFs are units representing physical gold in paper or dematerialized form, which is very different from owning physical gold. According to the World Gold Council, global gold-backed ETFs added 298 tonnes, or US$23 billion, across all regions in the first quarter of 2020[1]. Total ETF holdings amounted to 3,296 tonnes, representing US$179 billion. The largest ETF is SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) with 1,048 tonnes.
Many investors and financial advisors may be surprised to learn that owning shares in a gold ETF is not the same as owning physical gold. As one of the largest ETFs, GLD states in its prospectus: “…designed to track the price of gold.” Is it wise to choose convenience over holding physical gold?
Since their introduction in 2003, gold-backed ETFs have transformed the gold investment market into an illusion, diverting attention from ownership of physical gold. This is like a magician that has you focused on a distraction while they perform a trick.
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Saturday, May 09, 2020
Will Gold Decline As Economies Gradually Reopen? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Half the US States and countries like Italy and Germany are gradually easing lockdowns. Taking measured steps, the moves are broadly cheered. Rightfully so? And what does the reopening mean for the gold market?
Epidemics: Bad, Good, and Ugly
By May 6, 2020, more than total 3.6 million of confirmed cases have been reported in the world and more than 250,000 have already died from the COVID-19. In the United States, about 1.2 million of cases have been identified so far, and more than 71,000 people have died. This is bad news.
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Friday, May 08, 2020
A New Day Has Dawned for Gold and Silver / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: MoneyMetals
Most resource sector writers (including me) have for a long time been "wrong" about gold and silver.
When they ran from $250 and $5 an ounce, respectively, to $1,920 and $49 in 2011, those who listened, acted, and sold a bit did quite well. We argued the "longer time bullish case" as these metals dropped into their final cyclical bear market graves in late 2015.
But that was then… and this is now.
What we DID get right was that when the Big Turn finally came, it would change directions so swiftly and violently that anyone waiting for "the bottom" would miss it, as rising premiums more than offset declining prices.
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Wednesday, May 06, 2020
Economic Collaspe Gold Price $6,600 or $22,000 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: The_Gold_Report
Bob Moriarty of 321gold discusses economic collapse and gold.
I like to read. I read fast and that helps.
I can't quite come to grips with all these guys now coming out with 25-minute videos they insist we watch instead of reading. Do they really believe that everyone has so much free time that they can pay attention to someone chattering away for 25 minutes?
Most of what you read or watch will be noise, meaningless stuff put out by guys who always have an agenda and certainly a bias. The majority has never had an original thought in their lives; all they do is parrot what some other fool has to say. When they want your money and that is pretty often, they figure out what you want to hear. That's what they tell you, just like TV preachers and politicians.
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Tuesday, May 05, 2020
Gold and Silver: Pay Attention to This Noteworthy Record High / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: EWI
Here's what usually occurs in related financial markets when "big changes in social mood are afoot"
Related financial markets tend to move together. For example, gold and silver.
Or, consider stocks. When the Dow Industrials are up on a given trading day, the NASDAQ is usually in the green too. The same applies when the Dow is down. Other major stock indexes tend to close in negative territory as well.
However, when a trend is near exhaustion -- whether bullish or bearish -- "non-confirmations" often happen. A non-confirmation occurs when one market makes a new high (or low), but a related market does not.
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Tuesday, May 05, 2020
Americans Just Can’t Get Enough Gold & Silver / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: MoneyMetals
Precious metals markets enter the month of May with some mixed signals near term. But the long-term picture continues to look constructive. All the metals appear to have put in major bottoms during the panic selling of mid to late March.
Barring another wave of virus outbreaks and economic lockdowns, the gradual reopening of state, local, and national economies should start to unleash more industrial and jewelry demand in the not too distant future.
And the extraordinary fiscal and monetary stimulus being pumped into the financial system will, if nothing else, work toward the debasement of the U.S. dollar.
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Tuesday, May 05, 2020
Silver’s Epic Mean Reversion / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Zeal_LLC
Silver is powering higher in a new bull market after getting clobbered in March’s stock panic. Investors have been flocking back to silver in the aftermath of that ultra-rare extreme-fear event. That brutal selloff also utterly wiped out speculators’ upside bets in silver futures, giving them massive room to buy back in. After being pummeled to record-low levels relative to gold, an epic silver mean reversion higher is underway.
A couple weeks ago, I wrote a popular essay “Big Silver Bull Running!”. It explained what happened to silver in this recent COVID-19 stock panic, and why silver soared in its wake. Sucked into that blinding fear maelstrom, silver was thrashed to a miserable 10.9-year low. This metal plummeted in a near-crash, fueled by speculators’ fastest long purge ever witnessed! That exhausted their selling, totally resetting longs.
That meant these super-leveraged traders’ capital firepower was fully available to buy back into silver. And much more bullish than that, strong and relentless silver investment demand emerged since that mid-March collapse. That’s evident in the soaring silver-bullion holdings of silver’s leading exchange-traded fund, the SLV iShares Silver Trust! This dominant silver ETF is the best daily proxy for global investment demand.
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Monday, May 04, 2020
Gold $3K to $20K Coming? These Pundits (now 34) Think So! / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Lorimer_Wilson
10 years ago every “analyst” and his brother was hyping the future price of gold and I kept track of their guesses in an article entitled “Gold Going To $2500, $5000, $10000, Even More? These 148 “Analysts Think/Thought So“. None of their forecasts “panned” out (pun intended) but some are back at it again suggesting that we are going to see gold going as high as $20,000.
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Saturday, May 02, 2020
Gold and Silver, Lockdowns and Reopening / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: P_Radomski_CFA
The action in silver is really interesting. Let’s check the prospects for volatile white metal, and the relevant historical analogy it offers. Is the major 2008 – 2020 analogy in terms of price moves remains intact? In short, yes.
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Saturday, May 02, 2020
About Gold Miners and Inflation / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Gary_Tanashian
I think the case is closed, or it should be closed. But with firmly ingrained perceptions passed down from one generation of inflationist gold bugs to the next, you never know. Remember the old dismissive “gold is silver is copper is tin is oil is hogs” line from the 2003-2008 time frame? Probably not, but I remember it because it was me saying it against an army of inflationist commodity and resources bulls advising to buy gold, buy silver, buy oil… buy resources of all kinds to protect yourself from the evils of inflation!
As an interlude, here is a pleasant interaction I had with a reader (actually, the interaction was his in a comment to an article of mine, but you get the drift) during the 2016 gold sector launch that ultimately proved to be ill-fated by mid-year because… inflation.
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Thursday, April 30, 2020
Gold Price Will Hit $3,000, But It's Going to Be a Wild Ride / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: The_Gold_Report
Agora Financial's Byron King and John-Mark Staude of Riverside Resources offer their viewpoints on markets during the COVID-19 pandemic in this conversation with Maurice Jackson of Proven and Probable.
Maurice Jackson: Today, we will seek to discover the true price of gold and silver and prospect generators. Joining us for a conversation is Byron King of Agora Financial, along with Dr. John-Mark Staude of Riverside Resources Inc. (RRI:TSX.V; RVSDF:OTCQB). Gentlemen, I hope you both doing well.
Mr. King, I'd like to begin with you, sir. Bloomberg issued a press release recently that Bank of America expects gold to reach $3,000/ounce, which is a 50% increase from its record. In your opinion, is this a realistic number, or was Bank of America being far too generous or conservative?
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Wednesday, April 29, 2020
The Crude Oil Futures Crash Is a Warning to Gold Speculators / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: MoneyMetals
The metals complex showed relative stability this week as the oil market suffered a historic meltdown. West Texas Intermediate Crude crashed 70% at one point this week on the continuous contract, bringing prices briefly below $7 per barrel. By Thursday, prices were trading between $14 and $18 per barrel.
The volatility on the May futures contract was even more extreme. On Monday, May futures for crude oil crashed to one dollar, then to zero, then to a few pennies below zero, then to an unbelievable negative $37 per barrel.
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