Category: Gold & Silver 2020
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Sunday, July 05, 2020
Gold’s Major Reversal to Create the “Handle” / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Gold just closed the month and quarter and its performance on the final day of both was very encouraging for the bulls. What’s going on and what changed?
Let’s start with the big picture.
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Friday, July 03, 2020
Silver Price Trend Forecast Summer 2020 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Formulating a Trend Forecast
It is clear that Silver is NOT Gold, so NOT to make the mistake of looking at what Gold has done and thinking Silver will replicate that move, it rarely does! At best Silver tends to play catchup towards the end of precious metals bull trends.
Silver is in a strong bull trend off the March low that is targeting resistance at $19 and then $20, beyond which lies $21. The big question mark is can Silver break above resistance or not. Balance of evidence suggests Silver's going to correct before it is able to clear resistance.
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Friday, July 03, 2020
Silver Market Is at a Critical Juncture / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Clive_Maund
Technical analyst Clive Maund charts his expectations for how silver prices will respond to movement in the stock market.
Much of what is written in the parallel Gold Market update is equally applicable to silver and it will not be repeated here.
Although silver has picked up significantly since its March low it has greatly underperformed gold over the past two years. But this is normal during the earliest stages of a major sector bull market, when gold is favored over silver.
On its 20-year chart we can see that silver remains stuck within a giant base pattern that started to form as far back as 2013. This chart makes clear that once gold breaks out to new highs against the dollar, then silver should break out of this base to enter a dynamic advancing phase.
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Friday, July 03, 2020
Coronavirus Strikes Back. But Force Is Strong With Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
We all fear the second wave of infections. But the U.S. hasn’t even controlled the first one! Bad news for Americans, but good news for gold.
Please take a look at the chart below. As you can see, the epidemiological situation in the United States does not look well. The number of new daily confirmed Covid-19 cases has been rising again since mid-June, which means that coronavirus is far from being contained. Actually, the number of new cases has almost reached a new record level!
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Thursday, July 02, 2020
Gold Completes Another Washout Rotation – Here We Go / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
One of the most telling patterns in Gold over the past 6+ months has been the “washout low” price rotation pattern after establishing a momentum price base. It seems as though every time Gold completes one of the moderate-low price rotations, as we call it a “washout low rotation”, it sets up for a new momentum rally to a new momentum price base.
We believe July and August 2020 could prompt a series of these types of rotations as Gold attempts a move above $2100 or higher. Allow us to explain our thinking as we explore this price pattern a bit further.
The first thing we need to realize is that Gold is nearing the $1900 level as it continues to push higher. This is a very significant level for Gold because it would be very close to breaking the 2011 all-time high level near $1917.90. As gold creeps higher because of perceived risk factors in the global markets, once Gold price levels break above $1850, then the rally to levels above $1900 is almost certain to drive investors into the precious metals markets at a much faster pace. Psychologically, once Gold rallies above $1850 with the US stock market trading near all-time highs – something has to break. The disconnect between Gold (risk protection) and the valuation of equities (the stock market) are not aligned.
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Wednesday, July 01, 2020
High Premiums in Physical Gold Market: Scam or Supply Crisis? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
During the coronavirus crisis many people couldn’t find physical gold, as there was a bullion shortage at dealerships. And these lucky individuals who managed to obtain bullion had to pay high premiums. We invite you to read our today’s article about the high premiums in physical gold market during the pandemic and find out whether they were indicated scam or supply crisis.
Gold is expected to serve as a safe-haven asset. But during the coronavirus crisis many people couldn’t find physical gold, as there was a bullion shortage at dealerships. And these lucky individuals who managed to obtain bullion had to pay high premiums. What a safe haven that people can’t find? And does not the price divergence between physical and paper gold show the price manipulation in the latter market? Let’s analyze what really happened in the bullion market during the coronavirus crisis.
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Tuesday, June 30, 2020
Gold Likes the IMF Predicting a Deeper Recession / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
IMF predicts deeper global recession and slower recovery, just as I expected. Good news for gold.
The June edition of the IMF’s World Economic Outlook Report Update is out! The main message is that the IMF predicts now even a deeper recession than two months ago.
As a reminder, in April edition of the World Economic Outlook Report, the IMF projected that the global economy would contract sharply by 3 percent this year, while the U.S. economy would plunge 5.9 percent. When it comes to 2021, the IMF projected 5.8 percent growth for the global economy and 4.7 percent for the U.S.
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Tuesday, June 30, 2020
Silver Is Still Cheap For Now / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Hubert_Moolman
Silver is still near all-time lows in many ways. One of the most significant measures wherein silver is at an all-time low, is its price relative to the amount of US dollars (US monetary base) in existence.
Below, is a long-term chart of the silver price relative to the US monetary base:
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Monday, June 29, 2020
Will People Accept Rampant Inflation? Hell, No! / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: The_Gold_Report
What do snapping turtles and long-time investors have in common? Sector expert Michael Ballanger explains.
The Weekly Missive, which usually arrives over the weekend (sometimes on Friday, sometimes on Sunday) was delayed this weekend for one reason: I had to change it.
I started out last week with an idea that was leaning in the direction of full-on capitulation in the sense that this latest, three-month, Fed-fueled rally was beginning to smell like 2009 and 2002 and 1988. All occurred after precipitous market plunges; all were the direct result of Fed policy actions; and all obliterated the shorts.
I have been very successful in 2020 in moving into markets gripped with fear and moving away from markets obsessed with greed, but of those two emotions that have always been the "controllers" of markets since the late 1800s, greed absolutely conflagrates during Fed "printing" orgies, while fear dissipates into only minor outbursts of selling. This has been the exact playbook by which the Fed (totally owned and operated by a consortium of publicly traded banks) has been able to change the "rules of engagement" by which traders and investors have operated since inception.
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Monday, June 29, 2020
Gold & Silver Begin The Move To New All-Time Highs / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
We warned about this move many months ago and just 6 days ago we issued a research post suggesting Gold had cleared major resistance and would start a rally mode to push above $2000 – possibly above $2100. Well, guess what happened right after we made that statement? Yup – Gold started to rally higher and is currently trading near $1790 – about to break $1800 for the first time in 2020.
You can read some of our most recent Gold articles below:
June 3, 2020: Gold & Silver “Washout” – Get Ready For A Big Move Higher
June 18, 2020: Gold Has Finally Cleared Major Resistance – Time For Liftoff
June 20, 2020: All That Glitters When The World Jitters Is Probably Gold
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Saturday, June 27, 2020
Gold, Copper and Silver are Must-own Metals / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Richard_Mills
Gold surged on Monday after a spike in coronavirus cases worldwide dashed hopes of a quick economic recovery. Within 24-hours the number of infections globally rose 183,020, a new record, the World Health Organization reported, Reuters said the US saw a 25% increase in new COVID-19 cases over the week ending June 21st.
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Saturday, June 27, 2020
Why People Have Always Held Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: MoneyMetals
The current phase of the gold bull market, which started last year, is – we believe – the third and final wave of the secular bull run tracking back to 2001.
It's going to create a tidal bore of immense size and power. A wave that those who hold the metal (and silver) can ride as insurance against state-sponsored value-destruction of a country's currency, and as real money that cannot and has not ever gone to zero in recorded history.
It could last 3 or 4 years, until the end of this decade... or beyond.
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Thursday, June 25, 2020
Gold’s Long-term Turning Point is Here / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Historical precedents are in many a technician's toolbox – and it's a tool they reach for with success repeatedly. Does the yellow metal offer any interesting parallels?
Gold had declined and it recovered, but the above simply prolongs the 2008-2020 analogy; it doesn’t invalidate it. Today, gold is attempting to break above the previous highs, but it’s not being successful in that.
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Thursday, June 25, 2020
Don’t Expect an Uneventful Summer for Gold & Silver / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: MoneyMetals
Bullion premiums have been drifting lower in recent weeks after spiking earlier this spring. That in part reflects a waning of fear among investors… and a hope for markets and the economy returning to normal as we head into the summer.
But make no mistake, these are NOT normal times.
Not with some parts of the economy still locked down. Not with the Federal Reserve embarked on an unlimited Quantitative Easing program that will dwarf all others that came before it. And not with the fabric of American society being ripped apart by radicals who are bent on erasing history and fomenting a race war.
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Wednesday, June 24, 2020
Silver Price Trend Analysis / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Long-term Trend Analysis
Silver faces very heavy overhead resistance from $18 all the way to $21 which means that it is going to be tough going and take significant effort for Silver to reach let alone breach $21. Whilst there is strong support at $16 and $14.5 (ignoring the crash low of $11.64).
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Wednesday, June 24, 2020
All That Glitters When the World Jitters is Probably Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The economic pressures and concerns within the global markets have not abated just because the US Fed has ramped up the printing presses. Inversely, the stock market price levels may be elevated based on a false expectation of a quick recovery and of future expectations that may be very unrealistic.
In terms of technical analysis, Gold has set up a very interesting sideways basing pattern after recently breaking above a major resistance channel near $1720. Our research team believes the recent base in Gold, near $1720 to $1740 is setting up just like the 2005 to 2007 peak in the US stock markets – just before the Credit Crisis hit in 2008. We believe the similarities of the current and past events, in price and in technical/fundamental data, are strangely similar.
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Monday, June 22, 2020
Excellent Silver Seasonal Buying Opportunity Lies Directly Ahead / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Dimitri_Speck
In recent issues of Seasonal Insights, my colleague Tea Muratovic and I shared our analysis of global stock markets with you.
Today I want to put a popular precious metal under the magnifying glass for you: silver.
Silver, often referred to as the "little brother" of gold, has a particularly interesting seasonal pattern I would like to show to you.
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Saturday, June 20, 2020
Gold Sector Correction is Maturing / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Gary_Tanashian
Gold Stock Seasonal Average
The HUI Gold Bugs index has over the last 2 decades (encompassing both bull and bear markets) tended to bottom in July per stockcharts.com‘s data for the index. A seasonal average is not a directive, but it is a () guide to be factored. Last year gold stocks bottomed in May as we caught what would be a violent upswing. This year I expect the low to be in June or July.
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Saturday, June 20, 2020
Gold Futures Firepower Mounts / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Zeal_LLC
Gold’s powerful post-stock-panic upleg hasn’t enjoyed buying support from the gold-futures speculators. These influential traders often drive and even dominate major gold-price trends. But they’ve been subtly selling into gold’s sharp recent rally. Their dogged skepticism is actually very bullish for gold in coming months. Gold-futures speculators are amassing big gold-futures-buying firepower that will be unleashed.
The maelstrom of extreme fear spawned by mid-March’s stock panic even briefly sucked in gold. It had surged to a 7.1-year secular high of $1675 during the initial weeks of that heavy stock-market selling. But once that went panic-grade, which is major stock indexes plummeting 20%+ in 2 weeks or less, even gold was dumped in the frantic dash for cash. Similar to prior panics, gold plunged 12.1% in just 8 trading days.
But that sharp emotional drop was wildly-unjustified fundamentally. With stock markets burning and the Fed printing crazy-record sums of new money like there’s no tomorrow, gold should’ve been soaring. So it rapidly V-bounced out of that anomalous stock-panic low, to blast much higher over the next couple months. Between mid-March to late May, gold surged up 18.7% to a 7.5-year secular high near $1748.
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Thursday, June 18, 2020
Low Inflation Makes Powell a Dove. How It Affects Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Inflation remains low, while Powell signals dovish Fed for years. Good for gold.
The US CPI inflation rate declined 0.1 percent in May, following a 0.8 percent drop in April. The decrease was mainly driven by decreases in energy, transportation and apparel prices. The core CPI also declined 0.1 percent, following a 0.4 percent drop in April. It was the third consecutive monthly decline, which happened for the first time in history of the index that starts in 1957. Anyway, compared with the previous month, we see some stabilization of disinflation forces, at least on a monthly basis.
On annual basis, the overall CPI increased just 0.2 percent (seasonally adjusted and merely 0.1 percent without the seasonal adjustments), following 0.4 percent increase in April. It was the smallest 12-month increase since October 2015. The core CPI rose 1.2 percent over the last 12 months, compared to the 1.4 percent increase in the previous month. It was the smallest increase since March 2011. Both indices are substantially lower than a few months ago. The chart below shows these disinflationary trends.
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