Category: Stock Markets 2020
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Sunday, June 28, 2020
Stock Market Gummy Bears Must Act Now! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Ricky_Wen
Tuesday’s session was more of the same action as the market remains stuck within our immediate range levels. If you recall, the bulls tried to break above last week’s 3150s range high on the Emini S&P 500 (ES), but price did not have the strength to conquer it. Instead, the ES micro-double topped in the mid-3140s and spent the rest of the day grinding back towards the 3110 gap fill/prior day’s closing print.
The main takeaway remains the same as the price action remains stuck in an overall daily pattern of 3231.25-2923.75 where a temporary top and temporary bottom were confirmed a few sessions ago. The ongoing battle remains tough for both sides because the longer this thing consolidates in a high-level consolidation; the better the outcome for the ongoing bulls. This is why it’s critical for gummy bears to act now and entice the real, big, bad bears to rotate back into town.
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Sunday, June 28, 2020
Stock Market S&P 500 Approaching a Defining Moment / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Paul_Rejczak
Stocks extended Monday's gains, yet retreated from the daily highs – how bullish is that? The short-term outlook hasn't changed as the S&P 500 still trades within Tuesday's intraday confines – we lack a clear short-term direction. In today's analysis, I'll cover what has changed and what has not since we last spoke. I'll also discuss the overnight dip on renewed corona fears – as if this news piece just arrived out of the left field. Yet, the market seems getting sensitive here.
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Wednesday, June 24, 2020
A Stealth Stocks Double Dip or Bear Market Has Started / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The stock has gone through many cycles since the 2000 tech bubble. The tech bubble was the last significant time the stock market’s popularity among individuals piqued their interest in such a huge way similar to what we see now in the markets.
Market legend Jeremy Grantham recently talked on CNBC about the price action in the markets is the “Real McCoy” of bubbles. We will get back to his insight later in this article, but let’s get into some technical analysis that helps us see when and where the market bubble could burst. When it does, it’s going to seriously hurt all the newly unemployed and sports betting traders who don’t know better yet how the markets move.
The stock market and how it moves is always evolving. Since 2008 when the FED stepped into the bailout America, which manipulated the financial system, the markets have been riddled with new policies by presidents and the Fed.
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Monday, June 22, 2020
Stock Market Decline Resumes / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – Having rallied well past a .618 retracement of the decline into March 2020, it is time to consider the possibility that the retracement was only an interruption of the bull market which originated in 2009.
Intermediate trend – Down into mid-July
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Friday, June 19, 2020
Fibonacci Price Modeling Suggests Massive Resistance Range In US Stock Markets / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The big selloff in the US markets last week (-1600 pts in the Dow Jones) on the comments from the US Fed aligns with previous Fibonacci Price Trigger levels throughout the early portion of 2020 to create a massive Support/Resistance range in the markets according to our research team. It is very likely that the big selloff bar from last week will also establish a minor Support/Resistance range within the price range of that big selloff bar.
One of the key technical components of our Fibonacci Price Modeling system is that it acts as a trend following system, projects key target and reversal levels, and also highlights key trigger levels as price rotates up and down in different time frames. The benefit we derive from this modeling system is that we can interpret the data into various forms of key technical factors for our friends, followers, and members.
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Thursday, June 18, 2020
Stock Market Waterfall Selling in S&P 500 Is Over Now / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Paul_Rejczak
Just as I called for, there wasn't much S&P 500 downside left, and I am hugely profitable on the upside reversal from near yesterday's premarket lows. That's quite a turn in momentum, isn't it? So, is the correction in the last throws?
I would certainly say so in terms of prices, though it might take a little longer in terms of time. If I look though at the enthusiastic reaction to the Fed announcing late yesterday its purchases of individual corporate bonds on the secondary market, I doubt that the correction has much shelf life left.
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Wednesday, June 17, 2020
Stock Market S&P 500 ADL Predictions / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our research team authored an article suggesting that our Adaptive Dynamic Learning Predictive Modeling system indicated the US major markets were 12% to 15% overvalued on May 23, 2020. This was just before the last “euphoric” phase of the recent rally took began the week after our prediction. From the date of May 23, 2020, to the recent peak in the markets, the SPY rallied another 9.72% above the price levels when we made the ADL prediction. This suggests that the major markets rallied to levels near 21% to 24% overvalued near the recent peak.
Please take a moment to review our original ADL article here: https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/predictive-modeling-suggests-us-markets-12-over-valued/
In keeping with our research team’s conclusions, the downside price move that initiated on Wednesday, June 10, 2020, after the US Fed statements, and really broke down on June 11, 2020, will likely continue resulting in the US major markets attempting to find support near our ADL predictive modeling system levels. The downside price trend could extend below our ADL price target levels if the selling in the markets pushes into an extreme selling event. It is not uncommon for the price to attempt to move through the ADL price levels attempting to find support and/or resistance.
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Monday, June 15, 2020
Staying Cautious & Staying Prepared With You Stocks Trading Account / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Over the past 30+ days, our researchers have been warning our friends and followers to stay cautious and to consider the risks within this market trend. Certainly, we’ve received some emails and contact from some people suggesting we should become more active, but we’ve also received many emails from members that feel we’ve kept them safely removed from the volatility and risks associated with this wild price rotation during these uncertain times. Additionally, we’ve been able to grow their accounts at the same time.
One of the reasons we’ve been able to accomplish this is because our research team identified a major supercycle event that was likely near August 2019 and continued to warn our members of this potential event well ahead of the projected event date. We also issued a Black Swan warning on February 21, 2020 warning all of our members to “get into cash” and to prepare for a very big price event.
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Friday, June 12, 2020
Stock Market Shift Away from Safety Begins / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Donald_W_Dony
Sector performance or strength can tell an enormous amount about how Mr. Market is feeling.
In Chart 1, from early December to late February, the four classic safe haven sectors (precious metals, bonds, U.S. dollar and utilities) were all outperforming the benchmark S&P 500.
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Wednesday, June 10, 2020
What Huge US Jobs Number Means For Your Market Positions / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The Huge Non-Farm Payroll number released on Friday, June 5th, shocked the market. A massive 2.5 million jobs were created in May 2020. If you were paying attention to the data, you’ll also understand that 1.87 million new jobless claims just last week. In fact, over the month of May 2020, a total of 12.58 million jobless claims were filed. Taken into consideration, the new jobs created in May represent less than 20% of the total job losses over the same span of time.
Our researchers believe the jobs number is representative of a phased reopening of many US states and correlates directly with the extended opportunity for further re-engagement of the US economy over time. The current social unrest taking place throughout the US will likely result in a new spike in COVID-19 cases as well as extended losses for certain businesses.
The rioting seems to be taking place in more populated states right now – which suggests some real concerns for many of these states in regards to scheduled reopening phases and the potential for a spike in COVID-19 cases.
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Wednesday, June 10, 2020
New Stocks Bull or Same Old One? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – Having rallied well past a .618 retracement of the decline into March 2020, it is time to consider the possibility that the retracement was only an interruption of the bull market which originated in 2009.
Intermediate trend – Up from March 23,2020.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Tuesday, June 09, 2020
Central Banks Have Jumped the Shark, May Even Buy Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: MoneyMetals
Mike Gleason: It is my privilege now to welcome back Michael Pento president and founder of Pento Portfolio Services. Michael is a well-known money manager, market commentator, and author of the book, The Coming Bond Market Collapse: How to Survive the Demise of the U.S. Debt Market. He's been a regular guest with us over the years, and it's always a pleasure to have him on with us.
Michael, thanks for the time again today and welcome back.
Michael Pento: Thank you so much for having me back on Mike.
Mike Gleason: Well, Michael, it's been a few months since we've had you on last and just a little bit has been going on in the world. COVID-19 has hit the states to say the least and caused major disruptions in the economy. Governors have instituted stay-home orders. Tens of millions of people have filed for unemployment. Now we're seeing major rioting and social unrest in many cities throughout the country over the police killing of a black man in Minnesota last week.
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Monday, June 08, 2020
Think Coronavirus Caused the Stock Market Crash? These Two Charts Beg to Differ / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: EWI
Just about everyone thinks the coronavirus pandemic slammed global stock prices in February and March. Entire countries shut down; businesses closed up shop; unemployment soared. People stopped spending money beyond the essentials, so conventional wisdom would indeed expect stocks to slide as a result. Yet consider the below chart of the Shanghai Composite, China's primary stock index.
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Saturday, June 06, 2020
Stock Markets Failing to Give Another AI Mega-trend Buying Opportunity / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Nadeem_Walayat
My analysis of Late April concluded in expectations for a correction to about 21,000 by the 3rd week of May.
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Saturday, June 06, 2020
Is the Stock Bulls' Cup Half-Full or Half-Empty? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Paul_Rejczak
Neither on Monday, nor on Tuesday did we see strong volume, but prices rose regardless –is it time to bet the farm on higher stocks right next? As quite a few yesterday-mentioned reasons to be cautious were resolved bullishly, the buyers' case got stronger.
S&P 500 in the Short-Run
Let’s start with the daily chart perspective (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com ):
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Friday, June 05, 2020
Stock Market Grinding Higher / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Ricky_Wen
Monday’s session was an inside day within a potential inside week/high-level consolidation context. Basically, the regular trading hours (RTH) session was confined to a 3059-3027 range on the Emini S&P 500 (ES), which is about 1%. In addition, as you may be aware by now, the average range per day has been narrowing for the past few weeks due to this methodical grind up and slower momentum when compared to Feb-April 2020. As previously discussed, the recent action is very similar to year 2019 as we’re seeing flashbacks from all the market tendencies of the easier overnight grind up and then chop around during RTH. (Nowadays, most gains have been made during globex vs RTH, hence easier setups during the overnight.)
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Thursday, June 04, 2020
Stock Market Election Year Cycles – What to Expect? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Every election year over the past five US Presidential election cycles has presented a unique set of price rotation events. Particularly evident in strongly contested US Presidential candidate battles where the voters are consumed with pre-election rhetoric. The 2007-08 election cycle was, in our opinion, very similar to the current market cycle in terms of consumer sentiment and economic function. The 2015-16 election cycle was less similar – yet still important for our researchers.
The economic conditions of the US economy and the global economy were vastly different prior to each US Presidential election cycle and continue to evolve throughout the current 2020 election cycle. Yet, our researchers believe the correlation of price volatility and rotation combined with the distraction for consumers as the election process occupies the hearts and minds of almost everyone across the globe takes a toll on the markets. Prior to almost any US Presidential, price volatility and trends tend to become much more exaggerated and extended.
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Wednesday, June 03, 2020
Stock Market Short-term Top? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Andre_Gratian
SPX: Long-term trend – We are in an official bear market
Intermediate trend – Concluding initial rally in a downtrend.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Wednesday, June 03, 2020
US Stock Market Sets Up Technical Patterns – Pay Attention / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The recent “melt-up” in the US stock market after a moderate downside price move in early May 2020 has set up a number of technical patterns that traders need to pay attention to. This melt-up trend may continue for a bit longer, but price levels and actions are beginning to set up very clear patterns that warn of potential weakness in the future.
First, no matter how we attempt to spin the data, the US economy is very likely to fall into a moderate recession after the COVID-19 virus event has created a world-wide economic event and the recent riots and protests all across the US continue to disrupt and destroy property, businesses, and other assets.
It is almost like a one-two-three series of punches leading to a TKO. We have the virus event, the stay-at-home orders, and now the riots and protests. Recently, the National Guard has been called out to support local law enforcement and to protect people and properties. From our perspective, the situation is very far away from stable economic activity/growth supporting current stock price activity/levels.
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Friday, May 29, 2020
Is Stock Market Setting Up for a Blow-Off Top? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our research team has become increasingly concerned that the US Fed support for the markets has pushed price levels well above true valuation levels and that a risk of a downside price move is still rather high. Recently, we published a research article highlighting our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling system results showing the US stock market was 12% to 15% overvalued based on our ADL results. Today, Tuesday, May 26, the markets opened much higher which extends that true valuation gap.
We understand that everyone expects the markets to go back to where they were before the COVID-19 virus event happened – and that is likely going to happen over time. Our research team believes the disruption of the global economy over the past 70+ days will result in a very difficult Q2: 2020 and some very big downside numbers. Globally, we believe the disruption to the consumer and services sector has been strong enough to really disrupt forward expectations and earnings capabilities. We’ve been warning our friends and followers to be very cautious of this upside price trend as the Fed is driving prices higher while the foundations of the global economy (consumers, services, goods, and retail) continue to crumble away.
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