Category: US Presidential Election 2016
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Thursday, November 10, 2016
How Terminator Donald Trump Won the US Presidency and What He Will Do in Office / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016
By: Nadeem_Walayat
How Terminator Donald Trump Won the US Presidency and What He Will Do in Office
Shock and horror on the faces of Democrats and many republican establishment politicians is real and so is that which the Donald Trump Terminator Presidency represents for them. For Donald really is the TERMINATOR, this guy does NOT know how to stop, How to back down, he is NOT a politician. Those who think he will calm down and it will be business as usual are deluding themselves.
Wednesday, November 09, 2016
BrExit Swing States Win Donald Trump the Presidential Election 2016 As Forecast / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016
By: Nadeem_Walayat
BREXIT! The pollsters, mainstream press pundits, analysts, markets and bookies ALL Got the US Presidential Election badly WRONG. This is the second time this year that they ALL got a major election badly wrong. Not even coming close to forecasting this election from the New York Times to Nate Silver downwards, thousands writing reams and reams of garbage presenting the view that Donald Trump cannot possibly win, right up to the close of the polls.
Wednesday, November 09, 2016
Betting Markets Confirm Donald Trump Has Won / Wins U.S. Presidential Election 2016 / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The betting markets that following the close of the polls leapt to discount a Hillary Clinton win who by 1am (UK) Polls+1hr, had Trump trading on an impossible to win 12 with Hillary Clinton on 1.09 as illustrated below, that had the mainstream media pundits, pollsters and other analysts on the likes of CNN slapping themselves on the back for having correctly called the election as the results appeared to be turning out as they expected would, well.....
Wednesday, November 09, 2016
US Presidential Election Betting Markets Odds Now Forecast Trump Could WIN - BrExit Factor! / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Observing extreme volatility on Election night as we countdown to the critical too close to call Florida result! For instance the betting markets an hour before the US polls closed had Trump trading at 6.6 - That's at about 11pm UK Time.
Tuesday, November 08, 2016
Hillary Clinton Wins US Election 2016 According to Pollsters, Bookies and Stock Market, BrExit? / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016
By: Nadeem_Walayat
As we count down the close of the polls virtually every opinion pollster analyst, book makers and the financial markets are strongly discounting a Hillary Clinton election win. So is America ripe for its very own BrExit moment? When the polls turn out to be WRONG as they were for Brexit.
Tuesday, November 08, 2016
US Election 2016 - Small-town America Will Decide the Fate of Everyone / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016
By: John_Mauldin
One congressional district in a state that nobody pays attention to could find itself at the center of American politics. That district’s single electoral vote could spell the difference between a razor-thin win and a tie. Seriously.
Maine is one of just two states that apportion electoral votes by congressional district and not by the total state count. The state has four total votes. Two go to the statewide winner, and one each goes to the winners in the two congressional districts.
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Tuesday, November 08, 2016
Neither Election Candidate Has the Character to Govern the US / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016
By: John_Mauldin
BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN : This year’s campaign has got to be one of the strangest of all time. We have two major candidates running for president. One says strange things. One does strange things.
Donald Trump has been accused of collaborating with the Russian president and his intelligence service. He is on tape claiming that he can have sex with anyone he wants.
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Tuesday, November 08, 2016
Trump's Top 5 Target States: Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, New Hampshire and Nevada in Rigged Election / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016
By: Nadeem_Walayat
There's about 5 hours to go until the polls start to close in the craziest, zaniest Presidential election in living memory, that which pitted reality TV star 'billionaire' Donald Trump against career Washington insider Hillary Clinton. With Hillary being the clear favourite to win, so here are what I deem to be Trumps Top 5 target swing states based on the last 72 hours of Trump campaigning, those states he has been targeting in an attempt to flip to red and win the US Presidential election.
Tuesday, November 08, 2016
Hillary Clinton Is Spirit Cooking The US Before WW3 / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016
By: Jeff_Berwick
I heard the term “spirit cooking” for the first time a few days ago. At first I assumed it was some form of culinary style that was done in a spiritual way.
Boy was I wrong.
Reports on the internet are actually referring to a meal involving “blood, sperm and breastmilk.” The term was mentioned in an invitation to John Podesta, chairman of the Clinton campaign. Podesta didn’t go to the dinner involved, apparently, but the term and its ingredients made considerable news on the internet.
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Tuesday, November 08, 2016
US Election Trump Season Finale! Hillary Latino Army vs BrExit Swing States, End of White Power? / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Finally it's the Trump show season finale! And were all wondering what the cliff hanger will be after having watched a year long worth of crazy swings and turns, from the republican nomination to the debates, to gropergate, to missing tax returns, and finishing off with thousands of deleted emails. So will Trump accept the result if Hillary Clinton wins? Or Could Trump still on the back of a BrExit style anti-establishment vote that won't show up in the polls, or will Hillary's newly formed Latino army bring home the vote in Florida amongst other Brexit swing states?
Tuesday, November 08, 2016
Has Hispanic / Latino Vote Won US Election for Hillary Clinton in Florida and Beyond? / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Trump started off his election campaign by denigrating latino's, and thus it looks like Trump has achieved what no democrat has achieved to such great extent which is galvanise the Latino vote in unprecedented numbers to come out and vote for the Democratic candidate and thus it will be the estimated 6.5 million Latino's in Florida who could win Hillary Clinton the state and US Presidential election of 2016.
Monday, November 07, 2016
Brexit Makes This US Presidential Election So Uncertain / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016
By: GoldCore
Ignore election theory, this one’s too uncertain
- This year’s election breaks the mould in a number of important ways
- Markets seem to be agnostic as to which party is in control of the White House.
- However, likely that uncertainty will drive markets for time-being
- Polls might be victim to ‘the Bradley effect’
- Hillary is seen as lower-risk and less volatile than the Republican.
Monday, November 07, 2016
The US Presidential Election Is Not A Brexit Moment / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016
By: Bob_Kirtley
There have been a number of comparisons drawn from the event risk around the upcoming US presidential election and the Brexit referendum earlier this year. There are a number of similarities, most notably in the market reaction to changing poll numbers prior to the vote, but also a significant number of crucial differences which make trading strategies around the US election different from those around Brexit.
Monday, November 07, 2016
The Markets and the US Election Outcome No One Is Thinking About / Stock-Markets / US Presidential Election 2016
By: John_Mauldin
BY JARED DILLIAN : I’ve been saying that the Fed is more hawkish than people think for quite a while, but nobody is listening to me.
This is not a good Fed. They aren’t making decisions on a predictive, forward-looking basis. They are very concerned about optics—how things look. And to them, right now the optics of having Fed funds at 0.375% with unemployment at 5% are very bad.
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Monday, November 07, 2016
WIll Under Political Pressure FBI Director James Comey AGAIN Reopen Hillary Clinton Emails Investigation? / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The FBI tends to flip flop its stance every 10 days on the Hillary Clinton classified documents stored on a private email server saga, depending who is putting the FBI under political pressure at anyone time. So the next date to watch is November the 17th when James Comey could once more be expected to make a statement that oops we did find something after all in the 650,000 emails on Weiner's laptop so the investigation is once more reopening.
Monday, November 07, 2016
Trump Panic, Hillary Polls Surge, Betting Markets Crash and the BrExit Swing States / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The wild manic US election roller coaster ride is almost over with just over 30 hours to go until the polls open 6am Tuesday, though approximately 1/3rd of voters have already voted early so the campaigns on the final day will be busy blitzkrieging those swing states that have not had early voting which means Pensylvania, New Hampshire and Michigan and of course Florida are all set to be bombarded with more campaign visits.
Monday, November 07, 2016
BATR 2016 US Election Editorial / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016
By: BATR
Campaigning fatigue has drained the country of common sense judgment as emotional psychosis engulfs much of the population. It is long overdue for the citizens of this once great Republic to look directly in the mirror. Ask yourself, what is your own personal responsibility in allowing society to become a moral cesspool? The United States is no longer GOOD. The conduct and crimes of the ruling elite are unconscionable.
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Sunday, November 06, 2016
American Election and the Fall of the Fourth Estate – The Price of Bribery and Corruptions / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016
By: Dr_R_M_Mathew
The actual causalities of the American Presidential Election are not the Democracy or the Judiciary, but the so called Experts, the Academics, the Lead Media Persons and above all the Fourth Estate. For the last three years, Hillary Clinton has been bribing almost all American and International Print and Electronic Medias, Top Media persons and Academics to project her as the embodiment of all human virtues and the most suitable candidate for the American Presidential Election.
Sunday, November 06, 2016
Hillary, Trump, Polls and BrExit Swing States - Electoral College Analysis US Election Forecast / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016
By: Nadeem_Walayat
With just 2 days to go until the polls open and Hillary Clinton is continuing to pull away in the national opinion polls by building on yesterdays lead of +1.6% to currently stand at +1.7% as the average of recent national opinion polls that compares against Friday's +1.3%, Thursdays 1.7% and Wednesdays +2.2%. So Trumps FBI emails surge is definitely over going into the final 2 days of campaigning which suggests that polls parity is unlikely.
Sunday, November 06, 2016
Breaking News : Donald Trump Assassination Attempt / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Within seconds of Donald Trump appearing on stage in Nevada, he was rushed off the stage by the secret service as others in the crowd could be seen apparently
wrestling a man to the ground, who was later escorted out by armed police.