Hillary, Trump, Polls and BrExit Swing States - Electoral College Analysis US Election Forecast
ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016 Nov 06, 2016 - 06:46 AM GMTBy: Nadeem_Walayat
With just 2 days to go until the polls open and Hillary Clinton is continuing to pull away in the national opinion polls by building on yesterdays lead of +1.6% to currently stand at +1.7% as the average of recent national opinion polls that compares against Friday's +1.3%, Thursdays 1.7% and Wednesdays +2.2%. So Trumps FBI emails surge is definitely over going into the final 2 days of campaigning which suggests that polls parity is unlikely.
Source: Real Clear Politics
However the national polls don't accurately represent the real election battle which is taking place in some 9 swing BrExit states representing 108 electoral college votes. Presently, based on a minimum 4% polls advantage the electoral college map breaks down into a tally for Hillary Clinton of 239 votes thus requiring just 31 to win, whilst Donald Trump based on the state polls has 191 electoral votes in the bag though still requiring a sizeable 79 to win.
So it's no wonder that the political pundits are still heavily skewing their forecast projections strongly in Hillary's favour as illustrated by Nate Silvers site that currently states that Hillary has a 66% chance of winning the election, as Trump needs to win a massive 79 votes out of the available 108, whilst Hillary's target is just a mere 31. So if one went just by the opinion polls then YES Hillary looks like she has WON the election for Trump has to win at least 3 of the biggest swing states, Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio for 67 votes which would still not be enough to win, requiring either North Carolina or a couple of the smaller states. So I can well understand what Hillary is by far the favourite to win.
http://fivethirtyeight.com
However, what the pollsters are missing is what I termed as the 'BrExit Factor' that allows for a 3-4% swing AGAINST the opinion polls in the actual election result as a consequence of Donald Trump being America's first anti-establishment candidate in perhaps the past 40 years who I expect to capitalise on the BrExit factor that shocked the British establishment back in June 2016 due to the fact that the pollsters, political pundits and the betting markets all got that result very badly wrong. So instead of REMAIN winning by 4% as had been the expectation right into the close of the polls, REMAIN actually LOST by 4%! THE BREXIT FACTOR, one of the British people raging against the establishment elite, the bankster crime syndicate and giving them a very bloody nose and so is the case for THIS US Presidential election when Americans have an opportunity to give americas banking crime syndicate that owns most politicians a bloody nose.
My forecast as of 26th September concluding that Trump should win as a consequence of the BrExit factor.
25 Sep 2016 - US Presidential Election Forecast 2016 - Trump Riding BrExit Wave into the White House
Most recent update of 2nd November 2016:
Therefore whilst a 3-4% Brexit swing is unlikely to make much difference to those states standing on a 4% or greater poll lead for Hillary Clinton. Nevertheless implies that the 9 swing state listed are BrExit swing states that could go for Trump including the important state of Florida which TRUMP HAS to win to win the election. Therefore when one factors in the BrExit factor then Trump currently has a greater probability of winning this election than Hillary Clinton, which is set against the so called analysts virtually all of whom on the basis of the opinion polls alone put Hillary firmly ahead.
Popular Forecasters:
New York Times (4th November 2016) - Hillary 85%, Trump 15%
Princeton Election Consortium - Clinton 317, Trump 209 (270 winning post)
http://www.electionprojection.com (3rd Nov 2016) - Hillary 48.5%, Trump 46.5%
Moody's Analytics model (1st Nov 2016) - Hillary 332, Trump 206 (270 winning post).
http://pollyvote.com/ (4th Nov 2016) - Hillary 323, Trump 215
https://www.predictit.org (4th Nov 2016) - Clinton 71c, Trump 34c ($1 winner).
Of course the situation could change during these last few days as the the BrExit factor allows for a LESS than 4% Swing so if Hillary pulls away by 4% or more in any of the swing states then that would greatly diminish the probability for Trump election win.
As for the betting markets, they continue to reflect the rise in Hillary's national share of the vote as Trumps odds have extended from a recent peak of 3.45 to 4.6 today. What this means is if one placed a £100 bet on Trump today then if he won that would result in a profit of £360 (+stake). Whilst a £100 bet on Hillary would yield a profit of just £28 if she won, which illustrates that the betting markets are heavily skewed in Hillary's favour.
The bottom line is that the BrExit factor implies that the POLLS are WRONG!
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By Nadeem WalayatCopyright © 2005-2016 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.
Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.
Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk
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