Why Ray Dalio is WRONG About China - Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order

Politics / China US Conflict May 24, 2022 - 06:28 PM GMT

A number of patrons mentioned Ray Dalio and his new book "Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order" and asked for my opinion, In respect of which Ray Dalio posted a high production 40 minute youtube video of the same title.

However after watching the video I see at least 3 flaws in his rise of China to displace the US thesis.

1. Each empire that replaced the previous empire tended to be freer than the one before, which is definitely not true with China.

2. That the new expire had a rising if not an exploding population, which again not true with China which is set to see it's population fall whilst the US remains on an upwards trend trajectory for many more decades.

3. The US empire does not stand alone i.e. there is NATO and AUKUS. Whilst it is very difficult for China to create similar alliances given that China rates much higher on the Xenophobia scale so it is very difficult for the peoples of other nations to come close together to the extent they can with the US i.e. free movement of peoples and ideas between allies. That and the likely candidates of Iran, Russia and Pakistan are more likely to drag China into wars it does not want to fight than to support Chinese imperial ambitions. Which in the wake of Russia Ukraine War makes such formal alliances now even less probable.

And it does not help that China is apparently at war with it's tech sector due to CCP control freak fears, which just makes US tech giants more dominant. That's the problem with totalitarian states, they don't entirely get the big picture which is the Quantum AI Mega-trend, far more important than trying to catch up to the US in terms of the number of aircraft carriers. So when I start to see China take the lead in Quantum computers. AI and Chip fab's then one could take the the threat from China more seriously but at the moment the CCP appears to be doing it's best to crush China's tech sector. That and the United States effectively outlawing competing chinese tech firms such as Huawei due to security concerns, I am just not seeing any serious threat from China to the continuing dominance of the US Empire.

So I guess unfortunately for Ray Dalio and his thesis, this time it's going to be different, unless another empire emerges that is more liberal than the US and has a rising population. That's not to say China is going to go away anytime soon as a significant geopolitical player. it's just that it is not going to displace the US empire much as the Russian Empire (Soviet Union) trundled along for some 40 years before it collapsed, so may be the fate of the Chinese empire i.e. reach peak ambition some distance from where the US sits and then decline either slowly like the British Empire or rapidly like the Russian empire.

The West has demonstrated in Ukraine that totalitarian states are at a huge disadvantage and thus all those going on about CHINA, CHINA, CHINA need to read what I wrote many months ago, that just like the Russian military is a case of an Emperor without clothes the same is probably true of China, Where there could be a huge difference between what Xi Ping thinks his military can do than what it can actually achieve on the battlefield and where battlefields are concerned it will be infinitely harder for China to take Taiwan than Russia to take bordering Ukraine.

So if Xi ping decides to invade Taiwan the ultimate outcome could be the flying of the white sun over the blue field at the forbidden city.

Though before anyone comments, the West can also make huge military blunders such as in Iraq and Afghanistan, but totalitarian states without mechanisms to remove leaders from power before they go insane are more prone to making such huge blunders as we see Putrid's blundering army in Ukraine.

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Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

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