Category: US Dollar
The analysis published under this category are as follows.Tuesday, November 08, 2011
Perfect Financial Storm; Eight Reasons to be Bullish on the US Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
One of my much appreciated contacts is Steen Jakobsen, chief economist for Saxo Bank in Copenhagen, Denmark. Today he passed on an "internal note" that he gave permission to share.
For ease in reading, I will not follow with my usual indented blockquote format.
Tuesday, November 08, 2011
The War that Will Kill the U.S. Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
A war-mongering U.S. government could be less than 18 months away from decimating the last 5% of value left in the dollar, says Richard Maybury, the author of the U.S. & World Early Warning Report. Until some new exchange-traded-fund-like basket of natural resources provides a store of value, this "juris naturalist" has some advice about how to protect your wealth during the coming collapse.
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Saturday, November 05, 2011
Dollar/Yen Bullish Digestion Pattern / Currencies / US Dollar
Although USD/Yen has been trading in a relatively narrow range between 78.40 and 77.80 since mid-session Monday after Sunday evening's BOJ intervention (to sell yen and buy USD), all of the action off of the intervention high impresses me as a bullish digestion period ahead of another up-leg.
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Friday, November 04, 2011
Why Is The USD So Weak / Currencies / US Dollar
With multiple reports of USD shortages including the need for an emergency Fed swap line in September why is it not showing in the DXY? Is the DXY to the USD what the paper market is to the precious metals?
Put yourself back in September 2008. Fannie Mae was bailed out on September 8 followed by Lehman, AIG, etc through September 22. Over that period the DXY falls 5.6%. Think traders were scratching their heads wondering why the USD was so weak? Where’s the fear? Is the USD as a safe haven trade dead?
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Wednesday, October 26, 2011
Bet Against the U.S. Dollar as a Store of Value / Currencies / US Dollar
In this excerpt from the Casey Summit When Money Dies, seasoned resource investor/broker Rick Rule discusses risk management and explains why the greatest risk you face as an investor is located to the left of your right ear and to the right of your left ear.
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Wednesday, October 26, 2011
Is Occupy Wall Street A Threat to the U.S. Dollar? / Currencies / US Dollar
On its face, suggesting that the Occupy Wall Street movement may threaten the U.S. dollar may appear like a tall order. However, simply dismissing Occupy Wall Street as a fad may be a big mistake, just as it is a mistake to dismiss the Tea Party movement. Regardless of your political stance, and with no offense intended to supporters of either group, we believe they may be two sides of the same coin – quite literally. To determine where policy makers and with it, the U.S. dollar, may be heading, it is important to understand that the driving forces behind both movements have common roots.
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Thursday, October 20, 2011
U.S. Dollar Index, The Big Picture / Currencies / US Dollar
When markets are volatile it often pays to take a step back and look at the big picture. A monthly chart shows the Dollar Index ranging between 70 and 90 since 2003, with the 80 level alternating as mid-range support/resistance. The index recently pulled back from resistance at 80 and will now either re-group for another attempt or medium-term support will give way, signaling a test of long-term support.
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Wednesday, October 12, 2011
Betting on the Dollar Versus Yen / Currencies / US Dollar
Rumors are circulating that in an effort to enable its exporters to compete effectively with China, Japanese authorities are considering some sort of currency "peg," perhaps to a basket of currencies, or vis-a-vis the Yuan, or maybe even in part to gold.
In addition, there are currently heated discussions in Congress about declaring China a "currency manipulator," or otherwise coercing China to allow its Yuan to appreciate faster to enable American business to compete more effectively on a global basis.
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Tuesday, October 04, 2011
Bernanke’s Plot To Overthrow the US Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
Where’s the Bastille…?
The Great Correction has a lot of work to do – there are so many things that need correction. And it will take time to do it. Meanwhile, your goal as an investor is to lose less money than everyone else. He who loses least wins!
Stocks should go down. Real estate should go down. Even gold should go down…as the dollar goes up!
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Sunday, October 02, 2011
U.S. Dollar’s Role as International Reserve Currency / Currencies / US Dollar
It is not a surprise the dollar continues to be the preferred official foreign exchange reserve currency but the share shows a gradual decline in the past ten years. The IMF’s Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves for the first and second quarter of 2011 places the greenback’s share at 60.6% of official foreign exchange reserves, down from a high of 71.5% in 2001.
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Tuesday, September 20, 2011
Is the US Monetary System on the Verge of Collapse? / Currencies / US Dollar
David Galland, Casey Research writes: Tune into CNBC or click onto any of the dozens of mainstream financial news sites, and you’ll find an endless array of opinions on the latest wiggle in equity, bond and commodities markets. As often as not, you'll find those opinions nestled side by side with authoritative analysis on the outlook for the economy, complete with the author’s carefully studied judgment on the best way forward.
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Thursday, September 15, 2011
U.S. Dollar As the World's Reserve Currency. Poor World / Currencies / US Dollar
The world's main reserve currency is the U.S. dollar. This is less relevant than most hard-money writers think.
What they never mention is that the U.S. dollar is a more popular reserve currency today than it was in 1995. You can see the evidence here.
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Thursday, September 15, 2011
A Chinese Euro-Save Means Falling Greenback / Currencies / US Dollar
As we predicted earlier this year, China may use its newfound economic clout to save Europe and diversify away from the US dollar. Seeing as Italy is still in favor with global investors with spreads between Italian and German bonds reasonable, the Italians could strike a formidable deal with the Chinese to push off debt concerns.
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Friday, September 09, 2011
Is the U.S. Dollar King coming to take his Kingdom? / Currencies / US Dollar
September continues to rake it in even with all the news flows and volatility attached with it, we have been reasonably successful in keeping our portfolio immune to high volatility. That said, it has not impeded our ability to generate returns.
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Thursday, September 01, 2011
Threats to the U.S. Dollar, Illusion Of Stable Currency Vortex / Currencies / US Dollar
The Jackson Hole Conference was a dud. To the astute student observer, something happened never seen before. The US central bank chief admitted failure, if only people could properly interpret and translate his words of helplessness and disappointment. A more apt description was that USFed Chairman Bernanke used the forum to announce on stage that the central bank failed and is powerless to react to the current lapse into recession. Many watchers no longer believe that a Quantitative Easing chapter #3 will be announced. Surely it will come sooner or later. Watch the USTreasury auctions for the best clue. The QE2 program was about prevention of auction failure, not economic stimulus. A quick review of monetary policy and its effect is horrifying for its utter complete failure.
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Wednesday, August 24, 2011
Money Printing, Debt, Dollar Vs Euro / Currencies / US Dollar
A key reason for recent market turmoil may be the long overdue untangling of important debt-driven interdependencies between the U.S. and Europe. In our analysis, not only has the Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) ultra-low monetary policy taken away any incentive to engage in meaningful reform in the U.S., but the easy money also spilled far beyond U.S. shores, providing European banks with hundreds of billions of reasons not to shore up their capital bases. With volatility riding high, investors appear to be chasing emotions rather than facts; let’s take a step back, and in an effort to understand where the Fed, the U.S. dollar and the euro might be heading next, let’s focus on facts rather than emotion.
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Tuesday, August 23, 2011
U.S. Dollar, the Mother of all Mathemagical Derivatives / Currencies / US Dollar
We all think we know the story of the recent ‘bubble in credit’. As the explanation goes; Americans took on too much debt, those debts were ‘packaged up’ into complex financial instruments, those instruments were then bought, sold and ‘re-packaged’ by people who didn’t even understand them, blah blah blah… Even with this cursory and boringly consensual view of recent history, at least people have figured out that they shouldn’t blindly trust the mathemagicians… or have they? Here I ask; what about the king of all derivatives; the one that deviously subsumes all others? Indeed, what about the derivative that even derivative traders assume to be axiomatically fundamental and distinctly not derived?
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Saturday, August 20, 2011
Enough Already With the Macho U.S. Dollar / Politics / US Dollar
A strong dollar, like a strong defense or strong democratic institutions, sounds like a naturally good thing. But it's not. A strong dollar is an unwise goal.
I recently had an e-mail exchange with an extremely distinguished conservative commentator-a familiar name to most-who was worrying that the dollar isn't getting the "respect" it used to.
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Tuesday, August 16, 2011
Downward Pressure Builds Again for the US Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
The 'safe haven' status of the US dollar maybe coming to an end. Normally during times of market corrections, traders run to the American currency for protection. However, during the early August market drop, the big dollar barely moved. Though T-Bill auctions were well bid, there was little increase in demand for the greenback.
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Tuesday, August 16, 2011
Time to Buy the U.S. Dollar? / Currencies / US Dollar
We last reviewed the currencies in early July: http://caldaro.wordpress.com/2011/07/04/foreign-currency-and-usd-update/. Since then, it appears, a lot has changed. The world’s equity markets have entered bear markets, US Bonds have been soaring, commodities have generally weakened, Gold has been making all time new highs, and the Swiss Franc (CHFUSD) has gone parabolic.
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