Category: UK General Election
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Wednesday, June 07, 2017
Will Amey Trees Rampage Cost Paul Blomfield Sheffield Central Labour Seat, Green Win? / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: N_Walayat
The Green Party are fielding their party leader Natalie Bennett in the Sheffield Central constituency hoping to unseat Paul Blomfield from what has been a rock solid Labour seat since 1945, to whom the Labour baton was passed in 2010 from Richard Caborn. The Green party are eager to capitalise on local issues such as the felling of thousands of Sheffied's big and beautiful trees by the Spanish Ferrovial Family owned Amey as part of a £2 billion PFI outsourcing contract by Labour Sheffield City Council that has angered and outraged many tens of thousands of Sheffielders, prompting dozens of campaign groups to spring up that will likely play a major role in the oucome of the next 2018 local elections.
Wednesday, June 07, 2017
UK General Election 2017 Forecast: Conservative 358, Labour 212 Seats / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
My recent video analysis concluded in seats per political parties forecast conclusion for Theresa May's snap BrExit general election, based up on the sum of 6 weeks analysis that is set against the opinion pollsters who are literally all over the place with YouGov even today forecasting 304 seats for the Tories whilst others range to as high as 385 seats.
Monday, June 05, 2017
YouGov Latest Crazy Polls Forecast Trending Towards Labour General Election Win! / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
YouGov continues to pump out i'ts crazy election forecasts on a near daily basis aimed at cornering the shcok polls market that are successfully sending the mainstream media into a feeding frenzy as the seats forecasts are resulting in an ever tightending election race, one of the Tories forecast to LOSE many seats paving the way for many Labour gains.
Monday, June 05, 2017
UK General Election 2017 Seats Final Forecast, Labour, Conservative Lib-Dem, SNP / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Here is my final UK election forecast conclusion on the basis of the sum of my analysis of the past 6 weeks in the run up to Theresa May's BrExit snap general election. Usually I would have aimed to have posted my final forecast conclusion at least a month before the day of the election i.e. for the US Presidential election my forecast conclusion was some 7 weeks before voting day. But that was just not possible this time as Theresa May seeing the Tories well ahead in the polls Mid April decided to ride the BrExit wave into a landslide general election victory. But that was about 6 weeks ago, now the likes of YouGov are forecasting a hung parliament resulting in a probable Labour / SNP coalition alliance.
Sunday, June 04, 2017
UK House Prices Forecast General Election 2017 Seats Result, for 2015 was 328 / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
In 2015 the polling establishment and the mainstream media had in unison proclaimed that the 2015 general election was too close to call, one where the Labour and Conservative parties were neck and neck and where even if the Conservatives managed to pull a handful of seats ahead would still lose by default as they would not be able to form a majority even with Lib Dem support and therefore the Labour party appeared destined to win the 2015 general election, all of which was based on a year of opinion polls that consistently presented this consensus view right up until the polls closed!
Sunday, June 04, 2017
London Bridge Terror Attack 5 Seats Election Boost for Conservative Party / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
London has just been hit by another barbaric terror attack that was not even 10 days on from the horrific Manchester bombing that killed many children. The latest attack is just 5 days away from the General Election. Whilst information is very sketchy at this time barely an hour on form the London Met Police declared 2 terror related incidents at London Bridge and Borough Market. Nevertheless armed police have opened fire on at least 3 suspects, of which at least 2 are dead and 1 is being hunted. The police also announced that there are civilian causalities, though the scale of causalities is unknown at this time which hopefully will not be on the scale of Manchester.
Saturday, June 03, 2017
UK House Prices Forecast General Election 2017 Conservative Seats Result / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The polling establishment and the mainstream media had in unison proclaimed the 2015 general election was too close to call, one where the Labour and Conservative parties were neck and neck and where even if the Conservatives managed to pull a handful of seats ahead would still lose by default as they would not be able to form a majority even with Lib Dem support and therefore the Labour party appeared destined to win the 2015 general election, all of which was based on a year of opinion polls that consistently presented this consensus view right up until the polls closed!
Saturday, June 03, 2017
Betting Markets UK General Election 2017 Labour, Conservative Seats Forecasts / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Normally one would imagine that the betting markets should usually be the most accurate predictor in terms of the probable outcomes of events such as elections given that there is nothing that focuses ones mind more then putting ones own money where ones mouth is, which clearly the pollsters NEVER do given that they tend to be consistently wrong AND tend to publish polls that range all over the place so that after the fact can point to an outlier poll to imply that they got the election result right when in reality they most definitely got it very badly wrong!
Friday, June 02, 2017
Spread Betting Markets Seats Forecasts for UK General Election 2017 / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Normally one would imagine that the betting markets should usually be the most accurate predictor in terms of the probable outcomes of events such as elections given that there is nothing that focuses ones mind more then putting ones own money where ones mouth is, which clearly the pollsters NEVER do given that they tend to be consistently wrong AND tend to publish polls that range all over the place so that after the fact can point to an outlier poll to imply that they got the election result right when in reality they most definitely got it very badly wrong!
Thursday, June 01, 2017
YouGov Shock Polls, Could Theresa May Lose, Labour Win Election 2017? / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
It appears YouGov has decided to corner the UK election shock polls market by virtue of starting to publicise shock polls on a near daily basis that are successfully sending the mainstream media into a feeding frenzy as the seats forecasts are resulting in perceived tightening of the election race.
Wednesday, May 31, 2017
Theresa May's Political Spectrum Impact on the UK General Election 2017 / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
For at least the past 30 years, Leaders and parties that most closely appeal to the centre ground tend to win UK general elections. Which is why Labour repeatedly lost election after election during the 1980's and most of the 1990's because whilst Margaret Thatcher was to the right of the political spectrum, Labour was far further to the left and it would take a long hard battle fought by first Neil Kinnock and then John Smith who paved the way for Tony Blair to firmly occupy the centre ground for the next 13 years, even delivering Tony Blair several landslide election victories that Theresa May hopes to replicate.
Wednesday, May 31, 2017
YouGov Shock Hung Parliament Poll, Labour Could Win General Election 2017! / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The media has gone into a frenzy over YouGov's latest poll and resulting seats forecast that creates an illusion of a tight election race when in probable reality no such tight race exists. So the mainstream media has been busy all day reporting on YouGov's headline grabbing shock poll of the Tories losing 20 seats on their current standing by falling to 310, whilst Labour adding about 30 rising to 257 seats resulting in a Hung Parliament. Implying a nightmare election scenario of a weak Labour government controlled by the SNP that like vampires would seek to bleed the United Kingdom dry of its financial blood which has already had an immediate effect on the markets by sending sterling temporarily lower with the real world impact as holiday markers now get less foreign currency for their sterling.
Wednesday, May 31, 2017
Tory Election Landslide, Labour Decapitation Bloodbath / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
If the opinion pollsters are to be believed and the Labours worst nightmare comes true with Theresa May winning the election on an vastly increased majority, on a total of over 400 seats. A bloodbath for Labour losing as many as 60 seats, falling from 229 to under 170 resulting in the decapitation of the Labour party, losing many of Labours front benchers and rising stars, leaving behind mostly old dinosaurs who have long passed their electoral hay day.
Wednesday, May 31, 2017
YouGov Shock Fake Poll Shows Conservatives Losing Election, Hung Parliament / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
YouGov appears determined to garner the most publicity by continuing to publish what in my opinion are FAKE POLLS that will never reflect reality, only purpose being to feed the mainstream media machine eager to create an illusion of a tight election race when no such race exists. And so the Times reports YouGov's headline grabbing shock poll of the Tories losing 20 seats falling to 310 whilst labour adding about 30 rising to 257 resulting in a Hung Parliament, a nightmare scenario of a weak Labour government controlled by the SNP that like vampires would seek to bleed the United Kingdom dry of its financial blood.
Tuesday, May 30, 2017
SNP Publish Latest Scottish Independence Suicide Note Manifesto / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The SNP appear to have just copied and pasted what every SNP manifesto has been for past few years. One of ever-endums, supplemented by whatever the tunnel vision minds of fanatical nationalists can conjure up in an attempt at subverting BrExit. The latest are demands to be part of the UK's BrExit negotiation team so that Scotland can ensure that whilst the UK leaves, Scotland remains part of the EU single market, ignorant of the fact that this would mean that Scotland would leave the UK SINGLE MARKET! Which as I will explain would destroy the Scottish economy.
Tuesday, May 30, 2017
UK General Election 2017 BrExit Factor Hidden from Pollsters Swing? / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
If your not already aware of the Brexit factor then it is an anti-establishment invisible to the pollsters swing of between 2-4%, which is why the pollsters keep getting the likes of the UK general election 2015, EU Referendum 2016 and the US Presidential Election 2016 very badly wrong as the pollsters always tend to skew the results in favour of those who commission the polls i.e. the establishment media.
Monday, May 29, 2017
Opinion Polls Based UK General Election Seats Per Party Forecast 2017 / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The opinion pollsters are back in force for election 2017, publishing polls on a daily basis that are completely ignorant to the fact that they have gotten virtually every major election very badly wrong for the past 5 years. Where the excuse constantly peddled being that of margins of error, which appear always skewed in the favour of those who commission the polls thus ensuring that the pollsters have gotten the likes of the 2015 General Election, EU Referendum and the US Presidential election very, very badly wrong.
Saturday, May 27, 2017
BBC Newsnight Falls for FAKE POLLS, Opinion Pollsters Illusion for Mainstream Media to Sell / Politics / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Apparently the boring election that everyone knew the Tories would win with a landslide is no more, for the Tory's 24 point lead over Labour has not just narrowed but collapsed to just 5% over the course of the past few days (Yougov Con 43%, Labour 38%). Which the BBC's flagship current affairs programme Newsnight made a good job of regurgitating at length. Emily Maitlis did her thing of prancing around the studio as intelligent eye candy so as to hold the attention span of viewers as the talking heads one after another explained the shock narrowing of polls which if it continues could even result in Labour winning the election!
Friday, May 26, 2017
UK Local Election Results Forecast for General Election 2017 / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The recent local election results confounded election logic which is that the party in government
tends to do badly at mid-term local elections. Of course we are not living in normal times, we are living in the age of BrExit where most voters realise the fundamental fact that there is only one party that has any chance of ensuring a successful Brexit outcome, the Conservative party and so the voters are intent on putting the country first by delivering Labour a blood bath whilst to all intents and purpose literally KILLING UKIP off in Thursdays vote which saw many Labour and most UKIP voters mark their ballot papers with crosses and ticks against the Conservative candidate.
Friday, May 26, 2017
Opinion Pollsters UK General Election Seats Forecasts 2017 / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The opinion pollsters are back in force for election 2017, publishing polls on a daily basis that are completely ignorant to the fact that they have gotten virtually every major election very badly wrong for the past 5 years. Where the excuse constantly peddled being that of margins of error, which appear always skewed in the favour of those who commission the polls thus ensuring that the pollsters have gotten the likes of the 2015 General Election, EU Referendum and the US Presidential election very, very badly wrong.