Category: UK General Election
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Wednesday, April 01, 2015
Election Forecast 2015 - Coalition Economic Recovery vs Labour Collapse / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The last ONS GDP statistics released before election day revised GDP growth higher for 2014 to 2.8% from the previous estimate of 2.6%, against 1.7% for 2013. The UK economy is now growing at its fastest pace since 2006 and leads the G7 countries prompting George Osborne to tweet “GDP revised upwards from 2.6% to 2.8% for 2014. Confirms UK as clearly fastest growing major advanced economy.” Whilst Ed Balls responded “This is the slowest recovery for 100 years and the Tories have failed to deliver the sustained rises in living standards they promised.” Though conveniently forgetting that the economy was recovering from the last Labour governments economic collapse.
Tuesday, March 31, 2015
Ed Miliband Debate Election 2015 Analysis - Labour Spending, Debt and Economic Collapse / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
David Cameron having chickened out of a head to head debate with Ed Milliband left the Labour leader to on his own face the brought out of retirement Jeremy Paxman as the second debate of the night following his earlier 20 minute grilling of David Cameron. Jeremy Paxman started hard by focusing on the failures of the last Labour government in terms of immigration, debt, spending, economic collapse and the threat of a Labour-SNP alliance, but Jeremy relented towards the end of the debate to give Ed Milliband an markedly easier ride than the Prime Minister had received as the following comprehensive video of the debate and analysis illustrates.
Monday, March 30, 2015
Election Forecast 2015 - Debates Boost Labour Into Opinion Polls Seats Lead / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Conservatives instant boost of Thursday night (26th March) evaporated within hours as several days on the main beneficiary where the opinion polls are concerned is Labour who have now once more flip flopped into the lead, though most still put both parties virtually neck and neck as clearly the people of Britain are indicating they do not trust either party to govern on their own, perhaps because they have become too similar, and therefore it looks like being a choice between a continuation of the Conservative - Lib Dem Coalition or an Labour - SNP Axis.
Sunday, March 29, 2015
David Cameron Election 2015 Debate Facts Check - Employment, Immigration, Debt & Deficit / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
David Cameron having chickened out of a head to head debate with Labour Leader, Ed Milliband, has left voters with a 20 minute interview with the out of retirement Jeremy Paxman. The Prime Minister faced a barrage of questions concerning the Con-Lib governments five year track record that put David Cameron on the defensive on employment, debt, deficit and immigration that this article and video fact checks.
Thursday, March 26, 2015
SNP Economic Fantasy Land of Cutting the Deficit AND Increasing Spending! / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
For left of centre SNP the economic numbers have never needed to stack up in Scotland for the Scottish economy is bribed to stay in the UK via an annual £9 billion Barnett formulae block grant that results in 20% extra public spending per head than for England. So whilst being within the UK it just did not matter for instance that Scotland's primary revenue earner, the oil industry has just collapsed following the crash in the oil price for England has always picked up the tab regardless.
Tuesday, March 24, 2015
David Cameron Announces Resignation Even Before Being Re-elected, Handing Labour 6 Seats / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
A BBC reporter at home with David Cameron in his kitchen completely caught the Prime Minister off guard when questioned on whether he would continue for a third term, to which Cameron stated that he had no intentions of standing for a third term, which means if re-elected in May then he would make way for his successor long before the 5 year term of the parliament was up, triggering immediate speculation that his departure could take place shortly after the highly divisive EU 2017 referendum.
Tuesday, March 24, 2015
UK Election Forecast 2015 - Budget Bribes Fail, SNP Insurgency Catastrophe - Video / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
George Osborne's pre-election bribes budget apparently just did not live upto voter expectations as £3k bunged to first time buyers and £200 to basic rate savers amongst several smaller bribes was just not enough as the Conservatives saw a 10 seat projected swing to Labour. Meanwhile the Labour party is playing with fire as it dances around whether or not they would rely on SNP MP's to prop up a Labour government that would prove to be a catastrophe as this video illustrates.
Monday, March 23, 2015
Election Forecast 2015 - Budget Bribes Fail to Impress Voters, Tory's Lose Seats in Opinion Polls / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
George Osborne's pre-election bribes budget apparently just did not live upto voter expectations as £3k bunged to first time buyers and £200 to basic rate savers amongst several smaller bribe was just not enough, either that or voters were spooked by the OBR bureaucrats savaging of the budget that implied a roller coaster ride of first severe austerity cuts of £65 billion per year, followed by a pre-election spending spree towards the end of the parliament.
Monday, March 16, 2015
Election Forecast 2015: The Day Labour Lost the General Election / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
There is one unique thing about the Labour party that stands out more than anything else, which is that the Labour party with its block votes system that heavily dilutes party member votes to just 1/3rd representation, is usually hell bent on choosing as leader the least electable in terms of prime ministerial material that they can find. Against the 1980's Iron Lady Labour first had the hard to understand what he was talking about Michael Foot, soon followed by 'Were All Right' Kinnock, and then looked set to be destined for another failure under John Smith, election defeat only averted by his untimely death which prompted a battle between Tory Blair and Gordon Brown, luckily for Labour Tory Blair won and so did Labour for the next 3 elections in a row!
Sunday, March 15, 2015
Osborne Budget 2015 New Annuities Pensioner Election Bribe Targets 5 Million Voters / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Last years budget announcement of pensions freedom from April 2015, that will allow pension fund holders to cash in all or part of their pension pots for a lump sum rather than being forced to buy an annuity is now being extended just in time for the election to all of the existing 5 million annuity holders from April 2016, who should the Conservatives win the election will also be able to cash in their annuities.
Sunday, March 15, 2015
Election Forecast 2015 - Opinion Polls Trending Towards Conservative Outright Win / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Hung Parliament is NOT a Certainty!
Opinion polls obsessed journalists are continuously number crunching each weeks polls into seats per party election forecasts that are then liberally regurgitated across the mainstream media. That latest such analysis is signaling that Labour has lost its most seats lead of only a week ago as now the Conservatives are being forecast to form the largest party in another hung parliament. However, in terms of extrapolating the polling trends into election day then the consensus view for another hung parliament can no longer be certain, as the polling trend implies that the Conservatives could win an outright election victory as my original analysis of over a year ago concluded (30th Dec 2013 - UK House Prices Forecast 2014 to 2018, Inflation, Trend Trajectory and General Election 2015).
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Wednesday, March 11, 2015
General Election Forecast 2015 Stealth Economic Boom - Why Opinion Polls are WRONG! / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Opinion polls for the past month and earlier have consistently been putting Labour ahead by 1% - 2% which converts to Labour being the largest party in an hung parliament and therefore most likely to form the next government as indicated by a plethora of election forecasting sites such as electoralcalculus.co.uk which currently puts Labour on 298 seats to Conservatives on 267 (9th March 2015), or the New Statesman's May2015.com that puts Labour on 283 seats against Conservatives on 255 (5th March 2015).
Sunday, March 08, 2015
Vote Labour Get SNP Catastrophe - General Election 2015 Forecast - Grand Coalition Possible / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Poll after poll indicates that the Labour party faces a blood bath in Scotland that could result in the loss of as many as 40 of its 41 Scottish seats and thus making a Labour majority government impossible, that coupled with the Liberal Democrats national meltdown could result in the SNP increasing their seats tally from the current 6 to as many as 57 thus replacing the Liberal Democrats as Britain's third largest party.
Friday, March 06, 2015
Cameron Fears Debates Would Cost Tories the Election - Potential 12 Seat Swing to Labour / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Mainstream media pundits and opposition politicians are in near unison uproar at David Cameron's tactics at avoiding any debate let alone the 3 planned for debates including two one on one between David Cameron and Ed Milliband that appeared certain of taking place only a couple of weeks ago, but now an apparently cowardly David Cameron has made it clear that there is no chance of any head to head debate with Ed Milliband before election day.
Friday, March 06, 2015
UK Election 2015 - Cameron Housing Bribe - 200,000 Discounted Homes for 400,000 Voters / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The latest Conservative party election bribe is for 200,000 starter homes to be built and sold at a deep 20% discount of market value which translates into an potential bribe of as much as £90,000 per home buying couple! Therefore targeting a potential of 400,000 voters, enough to tip a handful of marginal seats in the Tories favour.
Thursday, March 05, 2015
UK General Election Forecast 2015 - Immigration Crisis, SNP Insurgency and Housing Mini-Boom / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Answering who will win the 2015 UK General Election.
Find out what the impact will be of the SNP insurgency determined to disintegrate the United Kingdom, Liberal Democrats meltdown following betray of solemn pledges (tuition fees), UKIP profiting from continuing out of control immigration, unemployment falling to a 6 year low, and the housing market sentiment driven mini-economic boom as this analysis concludes in a detailed UK general election seats per party forecast including who will form the next UK government.
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Saturday, February 28, 2015
UK General Election 2015 Seats Forecast - Who Will Win? / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This analysis continues from Part 1 (UK General Election 2015 - Forecasting Seats for SNP, LIb-Dems, UKIP and Others) that forecast the probable seats for the UK's minor parties. This article (Part 2) concludes by forecasting the probable seats for the Labour and Conservative parties, and which is most likely to form the next government.
UK Political Party Funding Suggests Another ConLib General Election Outcome 2015
A recently published report by the Electoral Commission details fund raising by all of the major political parties for 2014, and allowing for expectations for a similar trend into the May 2015 general election means that significant differences in the funding of major parties election campaigns could result in a significant impact in this years too close to call probable hung parliament election result.
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Saturday, February 28, 2015
UK General Election 2015 - Forecasting Seats for SNP, LIb-Dems, UKIP and Others / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Britain's political parties are all ramping their frenzy of activity in the run up to the May 7th General Election with a string of bribes being announced virtually every other day as the parties fire their free money missiles at targeted potential voters, such as the Tories bribing pensioners with a interest rate busting 4% NS&I £15k bond at a subsidised cost to the tax payer of at least £1.2 billion. Whilst the opposition Labour party firing back by aiming at student voters with the announcement of a £10 billion bribe to cut tuition fees for £9k to £6k per year AND to bung students an extra £400 annual allowance, a tuition fees promise that Labour will likely break just as they had broken their 1997 promise NOT to introduce tuition fees in the first place which Labour subsequently did.
Friday, February 27, 2015
UK House Prices Trend 2015 and the May General Election / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
For Britain the most critical economic driver, far beyond interest rates, inflation, or even unemployment is the trend in average house prices for the fundamental reason that positive housing market SENTIMENT IS that which makes the all difference between the UK economy being in recession or in an common boom, as you don't tend to get one without the other. Which any government of the day fully realises and why the Coalition government has literally bent over backwards to first ignite and then to target maintaining a house prices bull market right into the May 2015 General Election through a myriad of tax payer funded schemes such as ZERO interest rates, the Help to Buy Scheme, Stamp duty cut and a continuous flood of liquidity forcing savers to spend or invest depreciating value of bank deposits into primarily bricks and mortar as I have covered at length for several years -
Wednesday, February 25, 2015
Liberal Democrat Election Blood Bath - Could Nick Clegg Lose Sheffield Hallam? / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
If the opinion polls are to believed then the Liberal Democrats are literally facing an election blood bath, a wipeout that could see the Lib-Dems lose more than half their MP's, falling from a major third party coalition forming tally of 56 ( already having lost 1 MP along the way) to as few as just 20 as according to Lord Ashcroft's detailed constituency level polling, and no more than 26 according to the current most favourable projections which would mean no more limousine rides for Nick Clegg & co!