A BBC reporter at home with David Cameron in his kitchen completely caught the Prime Minister off guard when questioned on whether he would continue for a third term, to which Cameron stated that he had no intentions of standing for a third term, which means if re-elected in May then he would make way for his successor long before the 5 year term of the parliament was up, triggering immediate speculation that his departure could take place shortly after the highly divisive EU 2017 referendum.

David Cameron - "A fresh pair of eyes and fresh leadership would be good and the Conservative party has got some great people coming up, the Theresa Mays, and the George Osborne's, and the Boris Johnson's, there's plenty of talent out there".

BBC reporter - "So the full five years but no third term."

David Cameron - "A third term is not something I have contemplated. Terms are like shredded wheat, 2 are wonderful, a third might just be too many."

So the race is on for his successor with David Cameron himself throwing the first three names into the bag as Cameron looks likely not to even be Prime Minster for half the term of the next parliament (should he win). Which is clearly a huge political gaff, not just because it distracts from the strategy for winning the May 7th general election but he himself has created speculation surrounding who will be his successor when previously none had existed, a huge blunder that even if the Conservatives win will plague David Cameron for duration of his premiership.

But worse is that in this extremely tight neck and neck election race then David Cameron's few short words may have swung a handful of seats in Labours direction, soon to be reflected in the opinion polls, which would be enough to tip the election in Labours favour. So if the Tories lose then this could be seen as the moment when the election was lost as Cameron has now definitely made the Conservatives task that bit harder to come out on top.

Current state of the Polls

The following is the current state of seats forecasts by various popular mostly mainstream media funded election sites that are set against my own forecast of 28th Feb 2015.

	Market Oracle	May2015 .com	Electoralcalculus .co.uk	ElectionForecast .co.uk	The Guardian
	28th Feb	21st Mar	22nd Mar	22nd Mar	18th Mar
Conservative	296	274	267	286	277
Labour	262	271	300	276	269
SNP	35	55	46	39	53
Lib Dem	30	24	57	26	25
UKIP	5	3	1	1	4
Others	22	22	22	22	22

The bottom line is that David Cameron has repeated the same mistake Tony Blair made in 2004 when he stated he would step down during a third term that galvanised Gordon Brown to bite at his heels for the next 3 years, eventually forcing Tony Blair out of office just 2 years into his third term, which sows the seeds of much unrest over the coming years as each prospective Tory leadership candidate attempts to carve out their own individual identity to stand out from the crowd so will be more critical of David Cameron's decisions i.e. multiple Gordon Browns!

Ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter for in-depth analysis and detailed trend forecast delivered to your email in box.

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

The Market Oracle is a FREE Financial Markets Forecasting & Analysis web-site.
(c) 2005-2024 MarketOracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd) - Market Oracle Ltd asserts copyright on all articles authored by our editorial team and all comments posted. Any and all information provided within the web-site, is for general information purposes only and Market Oracle Ltd do not warrant the accuracy, timeliness or suitability of any information provided on this site. nor is or shall be deemed to constitute, financial or any other advice or recommendation by us. and are also not meant to be investment advice or solicitation or recommendation to establish market positions. We do not give investment advice and our comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to enter into a market position either stock, option, futures contract, bonds, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. We recommend that independent professional advice is obtained before you make any investment or trading decisions. By using this site you agree to this sites Terms of Use. From time to time we promote or endorse certain products / services that we believe are worthy of your time and attention. In return for that endorsement and only in the cases where you purchase directly though us may we be compensated by the producers of those products.