Category: Financial Markets 2009
The analysis published under this category are as follows.Sunday, May 10, 2009
U.S. Dollar and Stock Market Will Show Real Stress Test Results / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009
Bryan Rich writes: In times of stress you can’t rely on normal conditions to hold. In fact, reactions to stress can be quite the opposite … completely unpredictable.
It’s no different in financial markets.
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Sunday, May 10, 2009
Investors Celebrate Bank Stress Test Results By Buying Risky Assets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009
One of the definitions of “stress” offered by the Merriam-Webster dictionary is “bodily or mental tension resulting from factors that tend to alter an existent equilibrium”. Well, any bodily or mental tension investors might have been suffering from as a result of financial factors were shrugged off on Thursday with the announcement by US regulators that ten of the nation’s largest banks had to add a total of “only” $74.6 billion in equity following the completion of stress tests. However, whether this will indeed restore the equilibrium remains to be seen.
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Saturday, May 09, 2009
Financial Markets Analysis - The Engineered Stock Market Rally? / News_Letter / Financial Markets 2009
May 9th, 2009 Issue #34 Vol. 3
Featured Analysis of the Week
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Friday, May 08, 2009
Stock Market Pre NonFarm Payrolls Profit Taking Sets In / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009
U.S. stocks fell prey to some pre nonfarm payroll profit taking which is hardly surprising given their recent gravity defying stellar up move. Tech and telecom sectors bore the brunt of the selling pressure while retailers were the sole bright spot. Weak demand at yesterday’s Treasury auction also rattled confidence as traders fretted that a rise in yields could choke off refinancing and increase mortgage costs and resets.
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Friday, May 08, 2009
Opportunities in Gold, Stocks and Currencies on Increased Global Risk Appetite / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009
You must have read by now that about 70% of activity in currency markets over the last 2 years has been largely driven by risk appetite, with equity indices being the primary independent variable steering FX flows. But there are times when currencies peak or bottom 2-3 days before equities begin to turnaround. The more resounding and recent example was the March 4th bottom in the EURUSD (peak in the US dollar), which occurred 2 days before the low in the major stocks indices.
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Thursday, May 07, 2009
S&P Above 900 As Stock Markets Dismiss Stress Tests / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009
Another day and another 100 points (plus) rise for the Dow, easy isn’t it? The U.S. Government could not have choreographed this better, for the market is now surely inured to the drip-feed of stress test leaks that presumably put the bad news up front. If the stress tests are to be successful, they need to be credible, and they need to impart a message that the financial sector’s capital demands are manageable. On the latter, the aggregate sum looks easily to be within the bounds of the deep pockets of Uncle Sam, and thankfully so, for if we were dependent on private capital it would be a very different proposition.
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Thursday, May 07, 2009
Gold, Silver, Oil and Stocks Technical Trading Summer Forecasts / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009
I have put together some interesting charts using the weekly time frame because they provide a cleaner picture of what to look for in the financial markets over the next 3-6 months.
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Wednesday, May 06, 2009
Stock Markets Calm Ahead of Bank Stress Test Results / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009
Markets paused for reflection and traded in a narrow range yesterday finishing neutral after their recent bout of bullish fireworks. The S&P 500 managed to just hold onto the 900 handle. Oil stocks struggled on a fall in crude prices while Disney shone on better than expected numbers. This was despite more upside data surprises this time from the services ISM and a cautiously upbeat testimony from Fed Chairman Bernanke. However news that Bank of America may require $35 billion in additional capital has futures in the red this morning.
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Monday, May 04, 2009
Stock Market Moves Remain on Hold Until Thursday's Bank Stress Test Results / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009
William Patalon writes: Barring some dramatic – and unforeseen – news this week, expect investors to tread water until Thursday, when the government is expected to release the results of the bank stress tests it conducted on the 19 largest U.S. banks.
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Monday, May 04, 2009
Bank Stress Test Results To Lead Financial Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009
With Japan closed until Thursday and many other stock exchanges closed today for a May bank holiday, we’re likely to get off to a slow start this week. But beware indices, FX, commodites and the U.S. equites are open as normal, but with the likely lower volumes, sharper movements in prices are a possibility.
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Sunday, May 03, 2009
Stock Market Investor Sentiment Improves as Investors Seek Riskier Assets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009
“Goodbye safe havens, hello risky assets.” This was the refrain of investors’ theme song during the past week. Safe-haven assets were out of favor as better-than-feared corporate earnings and signs of a budding economic recovery emboldened investors’ appetite for reflation trades such as equities and commodities.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, May 02, 2009
Financial Markets Analysis- The Stress of Bank Stress Tests / News_Letter / Financial Markets 2009
The Market Oracle Newsletter
May 2nd, 2009 Issue #32 Vol. 3
Saturday, May 02, 2009
Economic Recovery Plan Doomed to Fail as Optimists Fuel Bear Market Rally / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009
Bryan Rich writes: It’s important to understand the global investment and economic environment to understand what’s going on with currencies. And right now, there’s limited visibility of what lies ahead for world economies …
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Friday, May 01, 2009
New Stocks Bull Market or Just a Bear Market Rally? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009
Stress tests? What stress tests? - The Federal Reserve is postponing the release of stress tests on the biggest U.S. banks while executives debate preliminary findings with examiners, according to government and industry officials.
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Friday, May 01, 2009
Car Trouble for Stock Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009
A late pre-mayday slump yesterday saw the US market give back earlier healthy gains as traders worried over the governments heavy handed and ham fisted handling of the Chrysler saga and the shift back in focus to GM . Of course, recovery at all the auto companies depends on auto sales, and here the only green shoots for April were sprouting out of unsold vehicle parking lots, for total vehicle sales are projected down to 9.7m units from 9.9m in March.
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Thursday, April 30, 2009
Stocks Piggy Back Rally on the Fed FOMC Statement / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009
Despite a horrific headline GDP number yesterday, the market was encouraged by the entrails, which showed consumer expenditure up by more than expected and a massive drop in inventories (which of course is required to find a new equilibrium between supply and reduced demand). The Fed also chimed in with some cheer with a more upbeat tone in their FOMC statement, while Starbucks beat street estimates. I assume the mood for the day was that the Armageddon story is off.
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Wednesday, April 29, 2009
Weekly Wizards on the Stock and Commodity Markets Next Move / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009
Mike Paulenoff, on the Financial and Oil & Gas ETFs
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Now that the Financial Select SPDR (XLF) has been subjected to earnings, earnings doubts, stress tests, all sorts of suspicions about the efficacy of the tests, and now leads about which bank will or might not need more capital (according to the Fed), let's notice that for the past two weeks the price pattern has carved out a high level consolidation pattern.
Wednesday, April 29, 2009
Stock Markets Hit by Swine flu and Stress Tests Versus Green Shoots of Recovery / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009
The bulls and bears called it a draw yesterday. Despite a continued escalation in the number of reported swine flu cases, horrible numbers for US Steel and fretting over financials needing more capital, equities held up well. News that IBM is boosting its dividend and doing a buyback, improving consumer confidence numbers and data from the Case Shiller survey which pointed to the rate of decline in house prices easing off all provided a fillip.
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Tuesday, April 28, 2009
Pig Scores Bull Out of the Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009
Despite the tabloid-like hysteria about swine flu, stocks held up reasonably well yesterday. Investors did dump the usual suspects, i.e. airline, travel, hotel and cruise stocks. GM also announced that it will slash 21k jobs and axe 40% of dealerships (shares closed up 21%). Financials were also a drag, on renewed worries that the government’s pending stress test results will force regional backs in particular to raise fresh capital. Pharma and health-care stocks were, of course, higher.
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Monday, April 27, 2009
Mexican Swine Flu Hits Stock Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009
It’s just what we need now - a flu-pandemic scare in the midst of the biggest financial crisis since the Great Depression. Risk appetite was bubbling up a little late last week. The fall-out from the US bank stress test was seen to be confined to some of the regional banks and the economic data continued to show some “bottoming”. Ford’s share price jumped sharply on better-than-expected earnings and US home-builders rallied to their highest level since October.
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