Category: Recession 2008 - 2010
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
Retail Tsunami Wave Hits Gift Cards and Shopping Mall Operator / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Mike_Shedlock
Reuters is reporting Weaker gift card demand to hit post-holiday sales .
The once-hot holiday gift card may be losing some of its luster, dealing a setback to struggling U.S. retailers who count on the cards to drive consumers into stores for a post-Christmas shopping spree. As shoppers have witnessed a slew of retail bankruptcies this year, they are showing some reluctance toward buying the cards as gifts for friends and family.
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Monday, November 10, 2008
President-elect Obama Faces Extreme Volatility of Deflation and Inflation / Politics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Paul_J_Nolte
A historic week on a few levels – the largest two day drop in the markets since the crash of '87, putting the markets on pace for their worst year since 1931 and 1937 (which represent the two worst years in the 183 year history of the market). Oh, and the election worked out well for the Democrats, putting the now President-elect Obama in the Whitehouse. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, November 10, 2008
Deep Interest Rate Cuts to Treat the Threat of Economy Turmoil / Interest-Rates / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Regent_Markets
Last week the Bank of England hit the headlines with an unexpected 1.5% rate cut. The move was largely pre meditated as a shock tactic to boost the ailing UK economy ahead of the all important Christmas period. Spreading the cut over a number of months would have had much less of an impact as it can take many months for the benefits of a rate cut to filter down to consumers. This is especially the case now with banks being slow to pass on cuts to customers.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, November 09, 2008
Bank of England's 1.5% Interest Rate Cut to Prevent Severe Recession / Interest-Rates / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Victoria_Marklew
The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) acted decisively Thursday morning, cutting the Bank Rate 150bps to 3.00% - its lowest level in over fifty years and the largest rate cut since the Bank gained full policy independence in 1997. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, November 08, 2008
What the Obama Presidency Means for the U.S. Economy 2009 / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: David_Urban
The election of Barack Obama to the office of President of the United States on November 4, 2008 was historic for many reasons. Investors, however, are worried for a number of reasons. Democrats have been known as the tax and spend party, although the Clinton administration went a long way to begin changing investors' psychology towards the party. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, November 08, 2008
United States in Recession End of the Debate / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Andy_Sutton
The happy rhetoric of earlier this year has faded. The Treasury Secretary and Fed Chairman are no longer extolling America's strong economic fundamentals. The media is no longer talking about a soft landing and I haven't heard the term ‘Goldilocks' mentioned in what feels like a dog's age. While our leaders have referred to the ‘challenges' that we face and the very real possibility of a ‘downturn', it is very obviously out of vogue to call this reality what it is – a recession. However, history has left us with some pretty good indicators that may be used to either confirm or deny a recession and along with it give us one of the many answers to what is bothering Wall Street these days. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, November 05, 2008
Global Economic Recession, Country by Country / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Mike_Shedlock
There was an interesting post on the Big Picture Blog last week by guest writer Michael Panzner. The post is called A World of Faltering Growth . Here is the key chart. Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, November 02, 2008
Global Zero Interest Rate Policy and the "Impossible Economic Contraction" / Interest-Rates / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Mike_Shedlock
The global race to ZIRP is on. Let's recap the state of affairs of the mad march to zero interest rates.
Bank of Japan Cuts Rate to 0.3%
In an attempt to fend off a prolonged recession, the Bank of Japan Cuts Rate to 0.3% .
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Saturday, November 01, 2008
President Obama to Inherit Bush Recession and Record Deficits / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: John_Mauldin
- Electing the Janitor-in-Chief
- Can't Borrow on Your Home? Whip out the Credit Card
- Deficits as High as an Elephant's Eye
- Can You Count to 41?
Monday, October 27, 2008
Gordon Brown Spending His Way out of Economic Contraction into Stagflation / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Friday's announcement of surprisingly high 0.5% GDP contraction well above the forecasts of 0.2% and the Market Oracle forecast of 0.3%, confirmed that the UK economy is heading for a deep recession which looks set to beat the 1990's recession that saw a 2.5% contraction in GDP from peak to trough.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, October 27, 2008
Economists are Still Getting it Wrong on the Recession / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Gerard_Jackson
The recession is deepening and our economic commentariat still cannot get it right. Access Economics economist Chris Richardson is a classic. He figures governments and central banks "just don't have the dollars" to turn things around. The one thing governments and central banks are never short of is money. They can create as much money as they like. Only the threat of an outbreak of massive inflation stops them. In any event, the problem is not one of insufficient funds.
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Monday, October 27, 2008
United States Heading for Nasty Economic Recession / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Prieur_du_Plessis
Bill King (The King Report): Adjusted monetary base surging “The following chart of the Adjusted Monetary Base, as calculated by the St. Louis Fed, needs no commentary. But we must note that it is growing at a 341% annualized rate (of 4-week average). This is beyond 3rd world pumping! Yesterday in testimony before Congress about the financial crisis, Easy Al reluctantly gave a qualified confession about his role in the mess when he said he was ‘partially' wrong on derivative regulation. But Easy Al tried to direct blame at Wall Street.”
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Friday, October 24, 2008
Mesa City Arizona Facing Huge Budget Crisis / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Mike_Shedlock
AZCentral is reporting Mesa facing huge budget crisis .Mesa is bracing for what could be the worst budget crisis in city history.
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Friday, October 24, 2008
FTSE Crash as UK Economy Contracts by GDP 0.5% / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The FTSE 100 Index crashed on the worse than expected UK Q3 GDP data that came in at minus 0.5%, the consensus forecast was for 0.2% and the Market Oracle forecast was for a 0.3% contraction of Gross Domestic Product.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, October 24, 2008
U.S. Jobs Losses Mount As Recession Deepens / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Mike_Shedlock
Regardless of how much money Paulson and Bernanke waste on bailouts, this economy simply is not going to recover with the unemployment picture looking as bleak as it does. Let's start off with a look at initial claims then some announcements from today about layoffs. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, October 23, 2008
UK Economic Crash Follows Housing, Stocks and Sterling Over the Cliff / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Friday's long awaited GDP figures are expected to show an estimated GDP contraction of 0.3% for the quarter ending 30th Sept 2008. This follows the official data of zero growth for the 2nd quarter and will officially bring to an end Gordon Brown's near repetitive day in day out mantra chanted at the despatch box in his role as the chancellor of the exchequer for 9 years of having ended the boom and bust cycle. In actual fact all Gordon Brown had succeeded in delivering was a greater boom to be followed by an even more devastating bust. The key point to watch for on Friday is will a revision lower of quarter 2 GDP growth push the UK into a technical recession on the basis of 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
Using Leading Economic Indicators to Forecast Economic Recessions / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
On a year-over-year basis, the quarterly average of the index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) began contracting in the first quarter of 2007. With the exception of the third quarter of 2007, the quarterly average of the LEI has continued to contract. We alerted our readers that multiple consecutive quarters of year-over-year contractions in the LEI usually were the harbinger of recessions. We had ignored the history of the LEI's recession-predictive powers in the past and were determined not to repeat that mistake. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
Economic Recession Forecasting "V" or "U" Shaped? / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
Years ago there was an equity strategist at Bache-Halsey (I said it was years ago) who almost always got it wrong. When he finally was forced to leave "to pursue other interests," clients were furious. The guy was a near-perfect negative indicator. When he said buy, it usually paid off to sell.
You know where this is going. A certain "economist" is forecasting a "V"-shaped economic and stock-market recovery based on a forecast of a "V"-shaped recovery in monetary velocity.
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Wednesday, October 22, 2008
Looming Recession Could have been a Lot Worse / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Money_Morning
Martin Hutchinson writes: The U.S. economy is entering a recession. With each day that passes and each indicator we see, that eventuality becomes more and more clear.
Even so, we can take some real comfort in knowing that we're likely going to avoid the “bottomless pit” of a Great Depression II. A substantial recession with accompanying inflation – roughly along the lines of the downturns of 1974 and 1980-82 – seems the most likely scenario we face.
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Monday, October 20, 2008
US Faces Recession Despite Bernanke's Stimulus Package / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: David_Shvartsman
I don't want to start off this week's posts with the usual comparisons of our current economic climate to the Great Depression, but we do have some news out acknowledging the onset of a notable US recession. From FT, "US faces worst recession in 26 years" :
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