Category: Stagflation
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Thursday, June 19, 2008
Wage Price Inflation Spiral Plus House Price Deflation Equals Stagflation / Economics / Stagflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Warnings of a further 40% hike in energy costs this year puts the Bank of England on high alert for a wage price spiral kicking in which will lead to much higher and prolonged inflation. The first signs of this are in the 14% pay hike agreed with the Shell subcontracted tanker haulers over 2 years at 7% per year which is more than double the current CPI inflation rate of 3.3%. The public sector unions are seizing this event to warn that recent pay agreements that cover the next 2 years will have to be negotiated in line with the rising cost of living signaling a 'Winter of Discontent' for Gordon Browns Labour government.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, June 16, 2008
Fed Failure has Put United States on the Path to Hyper-inflation / Economics / Stagflation
By: Captain_Hook
Man is his own worst enemy – this truism has proven itself over and over in history – and is doing so once again in our handling of economy. As you undoubtedly know the consumer is on the ropes and in need of relief due to excessive credit. True to form however, and consistent with our title today, just when this is happening, commodity prices have lit-up, and are showing no signs of retreat, especially energy prices. This has created a very big problem for central planners they can actually identify within their incompetence, that being, in order to tackle the effects of inflation, they will genuinely (a few choice words in the Fed Minutes won't do the trick) need to show fiscal restraint, or crude oil will go to $200, the dollar will break 70, and it's hyperinflation here we come. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, June 11, 2008
Manipulated, Corrupted and Unreliable Government Data Points to Hyperinflation / Economics / Stagflation
By: Stephen_Lendman
Walter "John" Williams thinks out of the box. He makes disquieting reading, but you won't find him in the mainstream. At least not often. He runs a "Shadow Government Statistics" site with an electronic by-subscription newsletter. Anyone can access some of his data and occasional special reports. They can also assess his reasoning. In his judgment, government data are manipulated, corrupted and unreliable. He's not alone thinking that. First, through technical changes over time in how data are collected and/or interpreted. The intent is to portray a more rosy scenario and ignore real world experiences of ordinary people. Calculating the CPI is an example:
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Tuesday, June 10, 2008
How to Survive and Profit from Stagflation / InvestorEducation / Stagflation
By: Martin_Hutchinson
Increasingly in recent weeks commentators have begun speculating about the dreaded “S-word”- stagflation- and whether or not such a protracted period featuring both high prices and high unemployment would blight the U.S. economy.
The stagflation debate arose anew on Friday when a worse-than-expected employment report and a record single-day surge in crude oil prices made economists once again consider the possibility that the U.S. economy could drop into a recession even as inflationary pressures spiraled higher.
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Tuesday, June 10, 2008
UK Producer Price Inflation Soars Suggesting Stagflationary Recession / Economics / Stagflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
UK Producer Price inflation soared in May to 8.6% for the price of output of manufactured goods to levels not seen since the early 1980's stagflationary recession. The trend not only signals a halt to further rate cuts but increasingly the expectations are that despite sharply lower economic growth, UK interest rates will be forced higher as inflationary forces make themselves visible in the CPI data that currently stands at the Bank of England's upper limit of 3%. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, May 27, 2008
The Hyperinflationary Shell Game / Economics / Stagflation
By: Darryl_R_Schoon
Modern economics is not rocket science. In fact, it's not science at all. It's a game, a confidence game. Once paper passed for money, economics became an elaborate shell game designed to hide the fact paper had been substituted for silver and gold. Debt ratings are an attempt to quantify confidence in paper assets and are an essential part of the game. The shell game is called “Where's The Money?” The answer is simple, it's not there. Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, May 25, 2008
Global Economic Slowdown in Stagflationary Environment / Economics / Stagflation
By: Prieur_du_Plessis
Asha Bangalore (Northern Trust): Leading indicators – premature to rule out recession “The Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) moved up 0.1% in April, matching the increase seen in March. The two consecutive monthly gains of the index follow five consecutive monthly declines. The spokesperson from the Conference Board indicated that the index is indicative of weak economic conditions but ruled out the possibility of a recession.
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Thursday, May 22, 2008
Western Economies Experiencing Early Stages of Stagflation / Economics / Stagflation
By: Mark_OByrne
Gold and silver continued to surge yesterday with gold up nearly 1% (up $8.25 to $927.80) and silver up 2% (up $0.35 to $17.97). Gold continued to rally in Asia but has succumbed to some profit taking in early trade in Europe. Gold has risen on the continuing oil surge with oil reaching new record highs (above $135) again this morning and oil remains near these record levels.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, May 21, 2008
US Housing Crisis and the Last Days of Cheap Resources / Housing-Market / Stagflation
By: David_Vaughn
Is the housing crisis over? Or even close to reaching its peak? Not according to the experts. It seems we have a way to go before all the dirt settles to the bottom. Which is another way of saying that we really do not know what the long term effects of this housing mess will bring. Many commentators are trying to put a happy face on this crisis and report that only a small number are being hurt by foreclosures, but the entire housing industry is already suffering with the downturn. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, May 19, 2008
American Armageddon: How to Win the Epic Battle for Your Wealth / Stock-Markets / Stagflation
By: Money_and_Markets
Martin D. Weiss writes: Just when Wall Street was hoping for some relief from surging energy costs, crude oil prices surged more than $3 on Friday ... spiking to nearly $128 a barrel ... shattering all prior records ... and driving prices at the pump perilously close to $4 per gallon.
Worse, next week, despite the highest gas prices in U.S. history, millions of U.S. drivers will start hitting the road as Memorial Day kicks off the summer driving season. And last week, despite a last-ditch attempt to head off the expected crisis, President Bush failed to persuade the Saudis to pump more oil.
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Sunday, May 18, 2008
The Rise of Stagflation Means the End of Fiat Asset Wealth / Stock-Markets / Stagflation
By: Richard_Gorton
Stagflation, it's a fiat wealth killer: headline inflation is rising while jobs, manufacturing production, real estate, and economic indicators are falling: stocks and bond wealth of all types will be turning down in value. Stagflation in the US
I choose to believe as HousingPanic does, that it's hilarious to believe the Government's inflation report which showed nearly 0% inflation .
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Wednesday, May 14, 2008
Inflation Deflation Chaotic Trend Towards Stagflation / Commodities / Stagflation
By: Christopher_Laird
Seeing the gold market correct, and oil in a speculation mania, and other commodities with speculation, then combining weakening US consumer demand, one wonders what the heck is going on. The markets are in a chaotic battle between inflation and deflation forces.
The USD is rising, from a bottom around 70. It fell for years since 02. At this 70ish number on the USDX (US dollar index heavily Euro weighted) the USD rebounded. The EU is screaming the Euro is too strong. Germany is the only one who is not screaming. Even so, the EU has a much better trade balance situation (on the whole) than the US.
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Tuesday, May 13, 2008
US Heading for Double-Digit Inflation / Economics / Stagflation
By: Money_and_Markets
Martin Weiss writes: Nearly all the pieces are now in place for inflation to strike with increasing speed and fury, catching Wall Street by surprise, throwing government policy into turmoil and, at the same time, opening up broad opportunities for investors.
I know. I've seen this movie once before. And the script will forever be ingrained in my mind.
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Thursday, May 01, 2008
US Fed Interest Rate Cutting Policy Exporting Stagflation to Europe / Interest-Rates / Stagflation
By: Jennifer_Yousfi
The U.S. Federal Reserve reduced the benchmark U.S. lending rate by a quarter point - from 2.25% to 2% - yesterday (Wednesday), and then hinted that it will take a break from one of its most-aggressive rate-cutting campaigns in decades.
"The substantial easing of monetary policy to date, combined with ongoing measures to foster market liquidity, should help to promote moderate growth over time and to mitigate risks to economic activity," the policymaking Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) said in the statement announcing the interest-rate move. Central bank policymakers also said that "recent information indicates that economic activity remains weak" before going on to say "uncertainty about the inflation outlook remains high" and noted that the Fed would continue to monitor both economic growth and inflation closely.
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Thursday, April 17, 2008
Euro-Zone Combats Stagflation with Strong Euro, as Asia Riots on Food Inflation / Economics / Stagflation
By: Christopher_Laird
Inflation and stagflation, Euro, gold, and Asia Stagflation is behind the strong Euro, but also lots of general commodity inflation. Gold loves the stagflation mixture. If there is one gold bullish factor above all the others, it is if stagflation stays with us. Asia also has its very serious problems with inflation, namely food prices.
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Monday, March 17, 2008
Financial System Crisis Met by Wall of Central Bank Money Leading to Hyperinflation / Stock-Markets / Stagflation
By: Ty_Andros
BEWARE: The Ides of March, aka FIRESTORM! Part II As confidence in US financial institutions and its balance sheets DISSAPEARS so have the investors in them. Liquidity from the private sector has stopped dead in its tracks. As I have outlined in the past, there is no lack of liquidity, only a lack of confidence to deploy as questions of Solvency are now of primary importance. So, now the financial systems' parents at the G10 central banks and the government's fire trucks are on the scene of the 5-alarm blaze pouring liquidity into the fires raging in the financial sector that is Wall Street, Lombard Street and the G7 banking system. Last week's RUN ON THE BANK and the subsequent rescue of Bear Stearns de-marks the latest commitment of Helicopter Ben Bernanke and G10 central bankers to deliver on their recent promises to do “whatever it takes” to combat DEFLATION and protect the banking system within the various nations financial and asset markets.
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Monday, March 17, 2008
The Dual Paradigms Of Today's Stagflation and Deflation Macro Economic Conditions / Economics / Stagflation
By: Captain_Hook
Many are now categorizing current macro economic conditions as being an instance of stagflation . And while current circumstances definitely appear to be so, in my opinion one needs to go past the definition of stagflation to capture the essence of macro conditions at present, because this is not your father's economy. In the last inflation cycle witnessed in the 70's, wages were growing and people had savings, and we still had the disinflation period this sponsored up until millenniums turn to live through. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, March 15, 2008
Fed Money Printing to Solve Banking Crisis Leading to Stagflation / Interest-Rates / Stagflation
By: Andy_Sutton
It doesn't matter what newspaper you picked up. I doesn't matter what TV show you watched. Records fell like no time in recent history with perhaps the exception of Carl Lewis running loose at the Olympics in his heyday.
I wonder how much his Gold medals are worth now?
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Friday, March 14, 2008
The Road to Hyperinflation- Vive La France! / Economics / Stagflation
By: Peter_Schiff
This week, as the financial sector began to give way under the unbearable weight of bad mortgage debt, the Federal Reserve stepped in to save the day. At least that's what it says in the script. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, March 14, 2008
US Manipulated CPI Inflation Statistics- Stagflation 1980 and Now / Economics / Stagflation
By: Tim_Iacono
There's been a lot of talk in recent months about how different the current period is from bouts of "stagflation" in the 1970s and early 1980s. According to the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics), "inflation" peaked in 1980 at around 14 percent or so and many pundits today say that we'll never see those levels ever again.
They're probably right ... but not for the reasons you might think.
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