Category: Stocks Bear Market
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Sunday, August 02, 2009
Stock Market Dumb Money Bullish Again! / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Guy_Lerner
Over the last 4 weeks, the S&P500 has gained a little more than 12%, and during that time, investor sentiment, as measured by the "Dumb Money" indicator, was neutral. Prior to last month's huge run up, the "Dumb Money" indicator was in bullish territory (i.e., bear signal) for 10 consecutive weeks, and during that time the S&P500 lost 3.5%. This week (or rather after last month's monstrous surge), we find the bulls ready to buy high and sell higher again as the "Dumb Money" indicator has moved back into an extreme bullish reading.
Tuesday, July 28, 2009
Stocks Bear Market Short Covering Rally / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: John_Mauldin
This week I offer something unusual for outside the Box, in that I agree on almost all points with my friend David Rosenberg, except he tells it so much better than your humble analyst. David was the former Chief Economist at the former Merrill Lynch (ah, Mother Merrill, we barely knew ye.) and is now Chief Economist at Gluskin Sheff + Associates Inc., which is one of Canada's pre-eminent wealth management firms. Founded in 1984, they manage $4.4 billion. (For those who wonder, David left NYS to return home to Toronto. Much shorter commute time.) David looks at the recent stock market run-up, why he likes corporate bonds better than stocks, what is lagging with the consumer and a lot more. It is a very pithy read.
Monday, July 27, 2009
Is Stock Market Rally 2009 Like Bear Rally of 2002? / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Guy_Lerner
I have often thought that the 2009 rally resembles the rally off the September 11, 2001 lows that lasted into March, 2002. Even though the causes of the "crisis" are different, there are many noteworthy similarities.
Monday, July 27, 2009
Yield Curve Points to Bottoming Process for a Stocks Bear Market / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Donald_W_Dony
Bond yields are often ignored when analyzing stock markets. Yet their movements can provide valuable clues to the bottoming process of a bear market.
Sunday, July 26, 2009
Investors are Not Buying the Stock Market Rally / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Guy_Lerner
The "Dumb Money" indicator is shown in figure 1. The "Dumb Money" indicator looks for extremes in the data from 4 different groups of investors who historically have been wrong on the market: 1) Investor Intelligence; 2) Market Vane; 3) American Association of Individual Investors; and 4) the put call ratio.
Friday, July 24, 2009
Will the Stock Market Retest the March Lows? / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Jay_DeVincentis
This is a question that is not on anyone’s radar at this time, that’s why it needs to be on yours. Because I believe we will test the lows and we’re going to do it soon. Why?
Thursday, July 23, 2009
Stock Market Investors Skating on Thin Ice / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: John_Browne
As 2009 moves past its midpoint, many market participants are briskly trying to forget the carnage of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009. But, before we get lost in the euphoria of the 36% Dow rally in the Spring/Summer of this year, a little hindsight is in order. In March, the Dow had plunged to 6,547, or some 53 percent down from its nominal 14,164 high in 2007. Despite the recent gains, we are still nearly 40% below the 2007 peak. This is a brutal truth that everyone seems to be ignoring.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, July 20, 2009
Stock Market Investors Another Nail in Buy-and-Hold's Coffin / InvestorEducation / Stocks Bear Market
By: Mike_Shedlock
From the 2002 bottom until the 2007 market top it was hard to go wrong no matter what you did. Everything from junk bonds to commodities to emerging markets to the major market indices were all headed up. This made people feel they were protected from harm. It was an illusion.
Here is an interesting email from Steve who describes his experiences at attempting to beat the averages during this period.
Monday, July 20, 2009
Stocks Bear Market Counter Trend Rally NOT Over / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend - Down! The very-long-term cycles have taken over and if they make their lows when expected, the bear market which started in October 2007 should continue until 2012-2014. This would imply that much lower prices lie ahead. This will not be a straight-down decline, but a series of intermediate-term rallies and declines until we have reached the low point.
Saturday, July 18, 2009
New Stocks Bull Market? / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Tim_Wood
In the wake of the price action seen this past week I have received numerous e-mails asking if this means a “New Bull Market” has begun. The answer is, No! Now, this is not to say or to try to deny the positive price action seen this past week. Fact is, based on the chain of events that have followed the June high, I did not expect the July 1st high to be bettered. However, the price action on Wednesday did in fact better the July 1st high and structurally, this was an obvious positive short-term development. The price action this past week also potentially has intermediate-term implications as well. But, this does not mean that a “New Bull Market” has begun. At best, this simply means that the counter-trend bear market rally that began at the March 2009 low may not have run its course.
Saturday, July 18, 2009
Stock Market Rally, A Magic Pudding? / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Brian_Bloom
Twelve month trailing earnings (GAAP adjusted) now yield a P/E ratio on the Standard & Poor Industrial Index of 137.08X (Source: DecisionPoint.com )
Presumably, those who are piling into the market now are expecting earnings across the board to bottom out and rise strongly from here.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, July 15, 2009
U.S. Stock Market Rally Over; Buy and Hold Still Bad Advice / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Mike_Shedlock
Jeffrey DeGraaf, the top-ranked technical analyst in Institutional Investor magazine’s poll for the past four years says S&P 500 Rally Poised to End.
Wednesday, July 15, 2009
Goldman Flashing Warning Signal for Entire Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Chris_Ciovacco
Goldman Sachs (GS) is a bull market leader and a stock we like at CCM. In fact, we would consider buying it if the right entry point were to present itself. Understanding the current health of market leaders can give us some insight into the health of the entire market for risk assets. When market leaders are healthy, the market as a whole tends to be healthy. When market leaders begin to stall, it could mean trouble for the entire market.The purpose of this writing is point out some caution flags that we are observing on the daily and weekly charts of Goldman Sachs.
Saturday, July 11, 2009
Stocks Bear Market Rally, Examining the Facts / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Sy_Harding
In the section of his annual letter to his stock-holders explaining why their stock plunged 32% last year, Warren Buffett said, “I did some dumb things in 2008. . . . . sucking my thumb when new facts came in that should have caused me to re-examine my thinking and promptly take action.”
Buffett doesn’t often get caught up in the problems that foil ordinary investors.
Wednesday, July 08, 2009
S&P 500 Stock Market Trends Analysis for July 2009 / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Hans_Wagner
When analyzing monthly stock market trends, I use the S&P 500 charts to identify important trend lines. Trend following is a proven strategy to beat the market and grow your stock portfolio. Technical analysis provides the tools to analyze and identify trends in the stock market. Since the S&P 500 chart is the one used by professional traders for their analysis, it is important to understand how it is performing.
Wednesday, July 08, 2009
The Stock Market and Economic Dead Cat Bounce / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: John_Browne
In economics, as in many other “soft sciences,” facts are often overshadowed by theories. The dominant economic theory currently in vogue is that the massive government stimuli orchestrated by the Bush and Obama administrations would produce an economic recovery by the end of this year.
Wednesday, July 08, 2009
Comparing Job Losses and Investment Opportunities in Post WWII Recessions / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Mike_Shedlock
Minyanville Professor Tony Dwyer posted an interesting chart yesterday about recessions and payrolls that is worth a look.
Tuesday, July 07, 2009
Where Are We in This Stocks Bear Market? / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Adam_Brochert
The short answer: somewhere around halfway through it. The long answer follows. The price to earnings ratio for the S&P 500 is currently greater than 100 and earnings are not coming back strong in the next few quarters, I can assure you. If you think so, stop reading here and go back to CNBC to get your analysis. Cramer has a hot stock tip for you right now!
Monday, July 06, 2009
Secret The Bankers Know / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Paul_Lamont
"Cash was, is, and always will be - king. Always have cash in reserve. Cash is the ammunition in your gun. My biggest mistake was not in following this rule more often. Time is not money because there may be times when your money should be inactive... Often money that is just sitting can be later moved into the right situation and make a fortune. Patience-Patience-Patience. Patience was the key to success - Don't be in a hurry." - Jesse Livermore. How To Trade In Stocks, 1940.
Tuesday, June 30, 2009
A 20-Year Stocks Bear Market? / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: John_Mauldin
Long time readers know that I am a huge fan of the work of Neil Howe. His book, The Fourth Turning, was one of the seminal pieces of my reading over the last 30 years. And it has turned out to be stunningly prophetic. Uncomfortably so. A roughly 80 year cycle has been repeating itself for centuries in the Anglophile world, broken up into four generations or turnings. We have begun what Howe called many years ago The Fourth Turning.