Category: Recession
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Sunday, March 09, 2008
The US Economies Path to Recession / Economics / Recession
By: Ronald_R_Cooke
In March of 2007, I predicted America would have a recession before the end of 2008. (see Warning: Recession Ahead at http://www.theculturaleconomist blog.blogspot.com/ . At that point in time, my thoughts were greeted with a certain amount of – shall we say – skepticism. Well. Here we are one year later. It would appear the number of skeptics has decreased.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, March 04, 2008
Why the United States Will Go Into Recession / Economics / Recession
By: Gerard_Jackson
If my email is anything to go by, there are a lot of worried and confused people out there. Basically most want to know why if the US economy is going to slide into recession. Of course it will. The question is when. I have to exercise caution here because I haven't had the time during the last couple of weeks to take a much closer look at the economic trends. Since Bush won the 2000 election the media has done nothing but report economic doom. For them, predicting a recession is bit like predicting rain a few weeks hence. They one will eventually develop, they just hope Bush is still president when this happens.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, February 24, 2008
US Recession and Mega Profit Opportunities / Economics / Recession
By: Money_and_Markets
The Big Picture - Martin Weiss writes: With so much happening so quickly, I know it's sometimes hard to set aside a quiet time to think.
But this weekend I want the two of us to focus on the big picture ... find some clarity in these confusing times ... and chat about where we're headed from here.
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Wednesday, February 13, 2008
Industrial Metal Prices Suggest Shallow Recession / Commodities / Recession
By: Greg_Silberman
There is an old market saying that nobody rings a bell at the bottom.
Case in point, the industrial metals complex. Whilst the entire world has been fixated on slowdowns, recessions and deflations, a funny thing has been happening down at the London Mercantile Exchange.
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Sunday, February 10, 2008
US Recession - Massive Credit Crunch Beating US Government and Fed Flood of Liqudity / Economics / Recession
By: Money_and_Markets
Mike Larson writes: I'm no longer a huge football fan, and I'm not much of a political junkie, either. But this past week's action really got my blood pumping.
The Patriots and Giants slugged things out for four long quarters. Deep passes into the secondary. Crushing sacks in the backfield. Power running and smashmouth blocking. It was a great game up until the bitter end.
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Saturday, February 02, 2008
US in Recession - Rising Unemployment and Slowing Consumer Spending / Economics / Recession
By: John_Mauldin
What Does a Recession Look Like? - The Starbucks Index
- Consumer Spending Slows Down
- Rising Unemployment Starts to Show Up
- It is All About Valuations
- Phoenix, Prime Rib and My Conference
What does a recession look like? How does it feel? What does it mean for your life and your investments? We explore these questions and more in this week's letter. I have been working on this letter all week, and think you will find it interesting.
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Saturday, February 02, 2008
US Jobs Lost Worst Since 2003 Confirms US Recession / Economics / Recession
By: Andy_Sutton
As kids we used to play a game where one person would hide something, and their counterpart would look for it. As the person searching looked around, usually with a blindfold on, the person doing the hiding would tell them ‘you're getting warmer' or ‘you're getting colder' depending on their proximity to the object. When the searcher would get really close, the hider would yell ‘you're red-hot!' and usually success was not far away at all. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, January 22, 2008
No Economic Growth Without Savings / Economics / Recession
By: Gerard_Jackson
To say that the economics profession is schizophrenic about economic growth and savings would be a mild understatement. The economic commentariat tell us that consumption drives the economy and that consumer spending must be maintained if the economy is to avoid recession. They then tell us that we need to save more if we are to raise living standards. It completely eludes them that they stating a contradiction in terms.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, January 18, 2008
US Congress Desperate Measures to Avoid a Recession / Economics / Recession
By: Peter_Schiff
For members of Congress desperate to avoid recession, the takeaway message that Fed Chairman Bernanke delivered in his testimony this week was that a successful stimulus package needs to be rapid and targeted. By this he meant that money would need to be delivered quickly to those individuals who would be most likely to spend, and withdrawn when and if the need for stimulus ebbs.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 10, 2008
US Recession Will Ultimately be More Severe than Current Forecasts / Economics / Recession
By: Bob_Bronson
Despite permabull hype, as reflected especially by many of Larry Kudlow's guests on CNBC, the second revision in 3Q GDP neither obviated nor postponed the persistently developing -- and very predictable -- recession.
Our stock market and economic cycle template, or SMECT model clearly illustrates the "perfect storm" of several business and economic cycles contracting simultaneously and suggesting, well in advance, that the oncoming recession will be more severe than average
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Tuesday, January 08, 2008
US Housing Market and Recession 2008: Robert Shiller Gets It Wrong / Housing-Market / Recession
By: Gerard_Jackson
There is much confusion and wishful thinking about the direction of the US economy. Supply-siders are claiming that forcing the fed funds rate below the ten-year Treasury rate will stimulate economic. (Meantime, Democrats are wishing for a recession in the belief it would guarantee them Congress and the White House).Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, January 07, 2008
The Great Depression - 2008 Forecasters Still Getting it Wrong / Economics / Recession
By: Gerard_Jackson
As the Australian and US booms rolls on some 'forecaster', particularly on the net, are once again drawing historical analogies, warning that we risk a financial collapse that could bring on a depression every bit as bad as the 1930s. These forecasters know as much about the Great Depression as I do about brain surgery. Unfortunately, journalists' ignorance of economic history is massive. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, December 18, 2007
"Reckless" Lending by Central Banks Risks US Recession / Economics / Recession
By: Jas_Jain
On Wednesday, December 12, 2007, leading Central Banks surprised the markets by promising to “rain money” on American and European banks. After years of Fed facilitating the pushing of debt on households by private financial institutions, including turning blind-eye to obvious abuses in the mortgage market, it suddenly is pushing debt on banks (ready money, or reserves, in exchange for questionable collateral) with the hope that they would continue lending to households. Would it work? Hell no.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, November 22, 2007
US Heading For Recession, Dow Theory Stocks Sell Signal and Flight to T-Bonds Continues / Stock-Markets / Recession
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Last week I missed a possible headline grabber. On November 15 the Federal Reserve had lent $47.25 billion to fellow bankers, in what may be the largest single day loan to member banks in its history. Folks, the problem isn't going away. On November 2, I reported that the Fed had lent $41 billion, which was the largest daily sum since 9-11.
Bank Reckoning Day came and went with no fanfare.
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Thursday, November 15, 2007
Credit Crisis Meltdown Is a Prelude to Global Economic Depression / Economics / Recession
By: Christopher_Laird
Monster Western credit crisis – prelude to a depression
- The present contraction of credit
- Gold in this situation
Present contraction of credit
The West (US,EU, Canada) is in the midst of a gigantic and spreading credit crisis that may well to lead it into a depression, if it is not fixed soon. So far, Central bank infusions (Over $1trillion worth in a few months since July!) have been the only thing that has stopped a massive bank liquidity crisis from shutting down commerce. But the damage to credit markets thus far is so huge, and worsening rapidly, that a very bad outcome seems assured. Gregory Peters of Morgan Stanley said there is a better than 50% chance of a systemic banking crisis that will hammer credit markets at this time.