Category: Recession
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Sunday, August 18, 2019
The Nuts and Bolts: Yield Inversion Says Recession is Coming But it May take 24 months / Economics / Recession
By: QUANTO
Consumers continue to power economic growth, as retail sales rose 0.7% in July, after a 0.3% increase in June, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. Excluding autos, sales soared 1.0%, after a 0.7% climb in June. Economists polled by IFR Markets expected a 0.3% rise in the headline number and 0.4% excluding autos. Auto sales were down 0.6% in July, after 0.3% growth the prior month.
Preliminary second quarter productivity figures also were positive news for the economy, as non-farm productivity grew a healthy 2.3% on an annualized basis in the second quarter, albeit down from the first quarter’s 3.5% growth, the Labor Department reported. Unit labor costs grew 2.4% in the period, after a revised 5.5% jump in the first quarter, previously reported as a 1.6% decline.
Economists projected a 1.5% gain in productivity and a 1.8% rise in labor costs.
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Tuesday, March 12, 2019
Next Recession: Concentrating Future Losses & Bringing Them Forward In Time As Profits / Economics / Recession
By: Dan_Amerman
If there is another recession in the next 1-2 years, then the Fed is highly likely to respond by swiftly moving Fed Funds rates back down to zero percent.
One likely result is that millions of investors will lose 83% or more of their future income over a period of years.
The money won't all actually be lost, however. Instead, much of it will be brought forward in time and passed through to a different group of investors as profits - in concentrated form.
In this analysis, we will focus on understanding how an unintentional - but necessary - byproduct of the Fed's dilemma and known plans when we enter the next recession, will be to strip wealth from some investors, and to bring that wealth forward in time to be "caught" by other investors.
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Thursday, December 06, 2018
Is The US Economy Heading Into A Recession? / Economics / Recession
By: Avi_Gilburt
Recently, one of my members of Elliottwavetrader was in attendance at the 32nd Economic Outlook Symposium hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. On the first day, he sat in a room with 150 economists. When asked how many see a recession in 2019, all of two hands went up.
So, let me ask you a question: When was the last time the majority of economists correctly called for a recession? (I think we all know the answer to this one).
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Monday, May 28, 2018
A Recession Indicator for Independent Thinkers / Economics / Recession
By: F_F_Wiley
Last month we took sides in the ongoing debate about the Great Yield Curve Scare—we argued that the curve hasn’t flattened enough to deliver a strong recession signal at this point in time. We showed that the recent flattening is similar to those that occurred at various stages of the last nine business-cycle expansions, but usually before the midpoints. In other words, history places today’s curve in an early- or mid-cycle position, not late-cycle as commonly believed. We concluded that the recent flattening isn’t all that interesting as far as the business cycle is concerned.
Monday, June 25, 2012
Just A Cyclic Economic Ripple Or Structural Long Term Recession ? / Economics / Recession
By: Andrew_McKillop
For global media, the 2008 crisis was signalled by the so-called "near collapse" of banks, insurers and
mortgage lenders like the UK's RBS and Northern Rock, the USA's JP Morgan, AIG and a string of
smaller players like Bear Stearns, but was above all symbolized by the outright collapse of Lehman
Brothers in the autumn of 2008. Since the start of 2012, revealing the supposed "surprising weakness"
of the OECD economies, and the more (or really) surprising weakness of the Chinese and Indian
economies, the events of recent months ram home the basic facts. Emerging from what in 2008 was a
finance-sector crisis in the OECD, easily explained by the perils of casino capitalism operating on debt
to get and then lose its betting chips, the subsequent and present financial collapse: 1) is systemic not
temporary; and 2) is global, affecting every country in the world. Through globalization of the
economy, and supposed "global integrated capitalism" we now have a globally integrated catastrophe.
Saturday, March 20, 2010
Jim Rogers Says 2012 Recession Will be Worse / Economics / Recession
By: Submissions
Central Banks printing money are driving stocks higher, but has not bought any shares since November 2008. Does not pay any attention to the Fed because they do not know what's going on. Expects U.S. Economy to have a worse recession than 2008-09 which will be worse because of the huge debt burden.
Thursday, October 09, 2008
Recession Signals: Industrial Production September Decline / Economics / Recession
By: Joseph_Brusuelas
While, the service sector does account for well over 80% of overall economic activity, industrial production often provides a very timely indicator implying the end of the business cycle and the onset of a recession. The pro-cyclical nature of the report provides a well-timed and sensitive indicator of the current rate of growth in overall output. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, June 27, 2008
World Recession 2009 as a Result of Peak Oil / Economics / Recession
By: Brian_Bloom
Whilst most people are vaguely aware that oil is important to the world economy, few understand the true impact of the recent rise in the oil price.
In 1998 the heads of state of the USA and Australia failed to ratify the Kyoto protocols. They were trying to protect their country's economies. Ironically, they engineered a situation where not only is the US economy under greater threat than it would have been had our leaders ratified the protocols, the entire world economy is now seriously threatened.
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Wednesday, June 04, 2008
Lies, Damn Lies, and Government Statistics / Economics / Recession
By: Dr_William_R_Swagell
“Every single release of late has afforded both bulls and bears the chance to grab onto data to support their view of the economy, but it does not do a whole lot for those in search of clarity.”
To those words by Richard Moody (chief economist Mission Residential) may we all say “Amen”.
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Sunday, May 25, 2008
Economic Statistics Con Game to be Exposed, Bigger Impact than Housing Bust / Economics / Recession
By: Prieur_du_Plessis
Soaring oil prices were mostly to blame for the past week's stock market sell-off, but renewed concerns about US economic growth, corporate earnings and mounting angst about inflation pressures also featured prominently in determining the market's fate.
David Fuller ( Fullermoney ) commented as follows: “As the world's most important commodity by far, this surge in the oil price is bearish for the majority of stock markets. Consequently I would assume that rallies seen since March have either been capped or are unlikely to make much upward progress until investors see evidence that crude oil has commenced a medium-term correction.”
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Sunday, May 18, 2008
California Leads Way For the US Consumer Bust / Economics / Recession
By: Mike_Shedlock
The International Herald Tribune reports Californians leading the way to consumer bust .
As it did when the housing bubble began to burst, California is leading the way in the next leg: a consumer bust.
Squeezed by rising unemployment, inflation in food and energy costs and plunging home values, Californians are cutting back on spending. Besides causing woes for state and local government, the cutback is giving California's economy another knock and makes further job losses, home repossessions and banking problems more likely.
Monday, May 12, 2008
US Recession 2000 Can tell us a lot about today's Economy / Economics / Recession
By: Gerard_Jackson
Some readers have been asking how "Austrian economic analysis held up during the last recession". Brilliantly, is the answer. It successfully described the emergence of the American recession and the pattern of rising unemployment and spending neatly fitted the Austrian explanation for the boom-bust cycle. Austrianism claimed that the contraction started in the higher stages of production and then worked its way down the production structure. Figures from the NAPM (National Association of Purchasing Management) in the middle 2000 gave considerable support to this view.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, May 06, 2008
Yes Virginia. This Is A Recession / Economics / Recession
By: Ronald_R_Cooke
A preliminary report from the United States Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), claims American Current-dollar GDP -- the market value of the nation's output of goods and services – increased 3.15 percent or $111.0 billion in the first quarter of 2008 (versus the last quarter of 2007), to a level of $14,185.2 billion. That economic performance equates to an average annual year over year increase of 4.67% against Q1 2007. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, May 06, 2008
US Fed Monetary Policy- Bernanke Gets It Wrong / Economics / Recession
By: Gerard_Jackson
Since the 2000 election America's leftwing mainstream media has tried to pump out a stream of bad economic news. According to this mob of political bigots recessions only happen under Republican presidents, completely ignoring the easily researched fact that the 2000 recession began under President Clinton. Now that so many indicators have turned negative the media are having a collective orgasm. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, May 03, 2008
US in Recession Despite Manipulated Employment and Inflation Statistics / Economics / Recession
By: John_Mauldin
- Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics
- Who Is Inflating the Numbers?
- Honey, I Blew up the Employment Numbers
- A Black Swan in Food
- Housing Numbers Are Better Than I Wrote
"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damn lies, and statistics." – commonly attributed to Benjamin Disraeli
If we are to believe the government statistics, the GDP of the US grew by 0.6% in the first quarter of this year. And unemployment actually fell. And there were only 20,000 job losses. This week we do a quick review of why the statistics can be so misleading. We also look at why I was wrong about the housing number last week, and I highlight what could be a very serious Black Swan lurking in the agricultural bushes. It should make for an interesting letter. It's hard to know where to begin, there are just so many tempting targets; so let's take the statistical aberrations in the order they came out this week.
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Thursday, May 01, 2008
Gold, the Dow, T-Notes: Which Does Best During Recessions? / Stock-Markets / Recession
By: EWI
Susan C. Walker of Elliott Wave International writes: Each year, the NCAA college basketball tournament winnows its starting field of 64 teams to the Final Four teams who play for a chance to become the national champion. Congratulations to the University of Kansas and the University of Tennessee, this year's men's and women's basketball champions.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, April 26, 2008
How to Survive a Recession and Make Profits / Stock-Markets / Recession
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Despite frantic efforts by the US Government and central bank to avoid a recession during a Presidential election year, the US is heading for a protracted recessionary period that is expected to be worse than the last two recessions as the credit crisis and housing bust continue.
The focus for investors now should be to realise that what worked during the 2003 to 2007 stocks bull market is expected to and actually is unraveling as the boom sectors such as financial's are in a bear market.
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Wednesday, April 02, 2008
At the Gates of Recession / Economics / Recession
By: Regent_Markets
High yield spreads remain stubbornly high despite dramatic interventions from UK and US central banks. Banks are hording cash due to mistrust and fear over who will make the next big write down. Nationwide, the UK's largest building society, put up the rates on some mortgages despite there being a reasonable probability of a rate cut on the 10th of April.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 17, 2008
US Economy Hit by Monetary Storm / Economics / Recession
By: Gerard_Jackson
The current monetary crisis has brought forth an avalanche of opinions on what President Bush and the Fed need to do to arrest the dollar's decline and prevent a recession. But what really needs to be done? The quarterly Anderson Forecast by the University of California at Los Angeles is betting that there will not be a recession, though there will be a significant downturn in the rate of growth. Of course, there is the usual caveat that if consumers reduce their purchases of big-ticket items this could bring on a recession. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 10, 2008
Stock Market Pricing in a Recession / Stock-Markets / Recession
By: Paul_J_Nolte
Investors are beginning to price into the markets a recession. The non-farm payroll figures out last Friday were worse than the street expected, showing a loss in jobs that for many, solidified a recessionary outlook. Calls for more rate relief from the Fed pushed the expectations for not just a half percent cut in rates later this month, but a strong likelihood of three quarters, if not a full percent cut. While a nice thing to do to get the economy going, the impact of any rate cut this month will not likely be felt until early 2009 due to the lag effect of changes in monetary policy. Read full article... Read full article...