Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, July 27, 2016
Japan's "Helicopter Money" Play: Road to Hyperinflation or Cure Debt Deflation? / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
By: Ellen_Brown
Fifteen years after embarking on its largely ineffective quantitative easing program, Japan appears poised to try the form recommended by Ben Bernanke in his notorious "helicopter money" speech in 2002. The Japanese test case could finally resolve a longstanding dispute between monetarists and money reformers over the economic effects of government-issued money.
When then-Fed Governor Ben Bernanke gave his famous helicopter money speech to the Japanese in 2002, he was talking about something quite different from the quantitative easing they actually got and other central banks later mimicked. Quoting Milton Friedman, he said the government could reverse a deflation simply by printing money and dropping it from helicopters. A gift of free money with no strings attached, it would find its way into the real economy and trigger the demand needed to power productivity and employment.
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Wednesday, July 27, 2016
Are Central Banks Crazy Enough to Think Helicopter Money is the Answer? / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
By: Rodney_Johnson
Central banks around the world have a common problem. They are failures. For the past eight years, central bankers worked tirelessly to generate economic activity. They pushed interest rates below zero and printed trillions of dollars.
And yet, the IMF recently cut its global growth forecast again.
Most economies are stuck in neutral while threats such as the debt crisis in Europe and deflation in Japan keep growing. Now central bankers are talking about a new tool – helicopter cash (free money distributed by a government agency). It won’t work either, but don’t expect that to stop the bankers from trying!
Wednesday, July 27, 2016
Consumption and Debt Will Bring Down the System - Video / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis 2016
By: Mario_Innecco
I like to talk about credit consumption and financial bubbles and also
production which is seems to been forgotten for the last note 20 years or
so especially in the Western countries you know the United States Canada Australia
Europe Japan it seems like the problem - all the solutions in terms of the economy is for
the creation of more credit more leverage more bubbles in order to keep people consuming and creating this
artificial wealth and paying taxes to keep a big bloated government going or
you know creating credit to build Matt weapons you know of war and conflict for
profit and i remember i think it was after the financial crisis and hank.
Monday, July 25, 2016
Japan’s Lemming Central Bank Blindly on the Path Towards Hyperinflation / Interest-Rates / HyperInflation
By: Michael_Pento
The financial world is buzzing about former Fed chairman Ben Bernanke's recent trip to Japan, where he advised Japan's central bank chief Haruhiko Kuroda on how to manage his nation out of multi-decades of stagnant growth. Channeling economist Milton Friedman, Bernanke warned that Japan was vulnerable to perpetual deflation and stagnate growth and that helicopter money--where the government issues non-marketable bonds with no maturity date and the Central Bank buys them with counterfeited credit--was the most useful tool in overcoming this condition.
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Monday, July 25, 2016
The Path to Fed-Exit / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank
By: Dr_Ron_Paul
I recently proposed that the liberty movement capitalize on Brexit with "Fed-exit": a campaign to "secede" from the Federal Reserve. Fed-exit could be accomplished with a few simple policy changes.
Passing Audit the Fed is a good first step toward Fed-exit. Contrary to the Federal Reserve's propaganda, auditing the Fed will not reduce the Federal Reserve's mythical "independence." It will simply allow Congress and the people to learn the full truth about the Fed's conduct of monetary policy.
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Thursday, July 21, 2016
Addicted to Debt - We Can’t Borrow from the Future Anymore / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis 2016
By: John_Mauldin
While everyone was talking about Brexit last month, the Bank for International Settlements released its 86th annual report.
Based in Basel, Switzerland, the BIS functions as a master hub for all the world’s central banks. It settles transactions among central banks and other international organizations. It doesn’t serve private individuals, businesses, or national governments.
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Thursday, July 21, 2016
The Bank of Central Banks Reveals the Biggest Threat to the Global Financial System / Interest-Rates / Central Banks
By: John_Mauldin
The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) is in the unique position of serving global economic stability in general… and central banks in particular.
It functions as a master hub for all the world’s central banks. It settles transactions among central banks and other international organizations. It doesn’t serve private individuals, businesses, or national governments
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Wednesday, July 20, 2016
TNX - A little Late But Still Expected / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Ed_Carlson
The high forecast by the Hybrid Lindsay model for early last week was delayed for three days by option expiration. Even if the high is seen today or tomorrow, that would still be within the margin of error for the model. The new high in the Dow probably means that a new Basic Advance began last February but we’ll wait and see what happens during the upcoming pullback before making that “official”.
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Monday, July 18, 2016
Don't Reform the Fed - FedExit! / Interest-Rates / US Presidential Election 2016
By: Dr_Ron_Paul
Opponents of a central bank should take advantage of the post-Brexit vote revival of secessionist sentiments to promote a secession from central banking, or "Fed-exit." Ending the Federal Reserve's monopoly on money is the key to restoring and maintaining our liberty and prosperity.
By manipulating the money supply to fix interest rates, the Federal Reserve engages in price fixing. After all, interest rates are nothing more than the price of money. Like all prices, they communicate information about economic conditions to market actors. Federal Reserve attempts to override the market rate of interest with a Fed-favored rate distort the price signals sent to businesses, investors, and consumers. The result of this distortion is a Fed-created boom, followed by a Fed-created bust.
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Tuesday, July 12, 2016
Could the US Bond Market Bubble Finally Be Ready to Burst? / Interest-Rates / Bond Bubble
By: Harry_Dent
The great commodity bubble has been steadily bursting since mid-2008, but has taken a nosedive since early 2011. It's now down 70% overall, and 80%-plus in industrial commodities like iron ore.Real estate has seen its first bubble burst and it clearly looks like a second one is on the way.
Stocks have now seen a third bubble and the largest burst is still just ahead… but, the question remains: when does it begin in this endless realm of QE and stimulus?
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Monday, July 11, 2016
ECB and BOJ Now Trapped in Endless Counterfeiting / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
By: Michael_Pento
The Fed was able to end its massive $3.7 trillion series of Quantitative Easing campaigns without the stock market and economy falling apart. The end of QE 3, in October of 2014, did cause temporary turmoil in the major averages; but all in all, it did not lead to a protracted market decline, nor did it immediately send the economy into a recession.
The consensus view then became that the Fed’s strategy of unprecedented interest rate and monetary manipulations was a huge success, and it would be able to slowly raise the Fed Funds rate with impunity.
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Saturday, July 09, 2016
10-Year Treasury Bond At All-Time Low...Explains Stocks Bull Market... / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Jack_Steiman
We have been going nowhere for a couple of years. Within that process the emotions of all traders were tested over and over. Many times it appeared that the market was about to break down. Action was terrible on price and their oscillators, and that bad action was accompanied by poor economic reports. One after another, they came in poorly. Just when all hope seemed lost for the bulls they'd pull some magic trick, also known as fed-magic dust. A QE program here. A bail out there. Low rates forever everywhere kept the markets from breaking down. It was good to be the fed. You needed a bull to keep the economy going through those 401K reports. It didn't always work though because the market couldn't break out.
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Saturday, July 09, 2016
Dead Pulses & Urgent Systemic Reform / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Jim_Willie_CB
Several important factors work in a powerful manner to debilitate, to distort, and to wreck the global financial and economic system. It is long past the point of effective remedy. After the Lehman kill event, every conceivable wrong move and policy was made and implemented. The investment in the corrupt elements has been so profound in the last several years, as to make remedy impossible. The official policies have been so errant and heretical, as to make remedy impossible. The distortions with the broken elements have been so dedicated in service to the ruling banker class, as to make remedy impossible.
Thursday, July 07, 2016
Europe In Chaos - Can You Imagine The Fed Raising Interest Rates In This World? / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2016
By: John_Rubino
Two short months ago it was generally expected that US interest rates would rise for the balance of the year — a move made possible by steady economic growth and general global stability. Here’s a representative piece of reporting from early April:
Monday, July 04, 2016
Federal Reserve Quantifornication Revisited / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank
By: Richard_Mills
Californication is a brilliant 1999 song by the Red Hot Chili Peppers. Many of the lyrics reference the often insane, unrealistic, impossible dream images Hollywood sells to the world.
"Space may be the final frontier but it's made in a Hollywood basement."
Quantifornication is the term I coined for what the Federal Reserve is selling to the world - the unrealistic, insane fiat dream that the monetary policy employed by the Fed can fix the predicament we are in.
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Friday, July 01, 2016
UK Interest Rate Cut to 0.25% Imminent and More QE Money Printing / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The establishments operation fear had painted a relentless propaganda picture all year for a significant rise in UK interest rates following a Brexit outcome that was destined to send consumer borrowing rates soaring, which at the time I repeatedly warned was just NOT going to happen for the fundamental reason that BrExit induced uncertainty would make a rate hike LESS likely as the last thing the Bank of England would want to do is to add to market uncertainty i.e. the complete opposite to REMAIN propaganda. In fact I stated that a BrExit could even result in a rate CUT as the following excerpt illustrates:
Wednesday, June 29, 2016
The Fed’s Money Printing Brings a Strange Outcome / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
By: Rodney_Johnson
I keep reading that the U.S. debt is out of control. That we’re spiraling toward a certain financial death, evidenced by the fact that we now owe more than 100% of annual GDP.According to a recent study by Rogoff and Reinhart, this is well beyond the threshold of where economies struggle. And we’re not alone. Several other countries have the same high level of debt outstanding, and Japan is at the top of the list, owing almost 250% of GDP. Clearly, we’re all going to die.
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Tuesday, June 21, 2016
Here’s Why German Banks Consider Hoarding Billions of Euros in Vaults / Interest-Rates / War on Cash
By: John_Mauldin
One of Germany’s largest banks is seriously considering stockpiling cash. Sources within Commerzbank have told Reuters they are “examining the possibility” of hoarding billions of physical euros in secure vaults.
This is truly bizarre. Under normal conditions, holding cash is anathema to commercial bankers. They keep as little as possible on hand; they certainly don’t go out of their way to hold more.
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Wednesday, June 15, 2016
Central Bankers Are Wrong About Inflation and Deflation / Interest-Rates / Central Banks
By: Frank_Shostak
The majority of economists view deflation as a general decline in prices of goods and services. This is viewed as a major threat to the public’s well-being for deflation is seen as a major factor that plunges the economy into an economic depression. Most of them are of the view that central banks and governments’ worldwide must aggressively fight the possible emergence of deflation. This way of thinking stems from an erroneous view of what deflation is. As a result, it is overlooked that it is not deflation but rather monetary pumping which is the root of economic hardship.
Saturday, June 11, 2016
Final Top Of US Bond Bull Market Set For 3rd Qtr of 2016 / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Austin_Galt
The 30 Year US Treasury Bond market has been trending up since 1981. This massive bull market is set to reach its conclusion next quarter if my analysis is correct.
Let's analyse the technicals of both price and yield of the 30 Year US T-Bond. We'll begin with the longer term quarterly chart of price.
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