Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, September 19, 2016
Yellen’s Footnote 8 Would Put Interest Rates on Autopilot / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: John_Mauldin
Yellen’s Jackson Hole speech was widely reported, so I’ll spare you the summary.
What wasn’t widely reported was her Footnote 8. Yellen cited approving a mathematical formula that could put interest rates on autopilot. The Fed hasn’t yet followed the rule, but its presence in Yellen’s paper suggests its use is on the table.
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Thursday, September 15, 2016
The Fed’s Monetary Monkeying Is Ruining Your Retirement and the Economy / Interest-Rates / Negative Interest Rates
By: John_Mauldin
The Fed’s mission is to maintain a stable inflation rate while spurring employment. Its main tools are the money supply and interest rates.
What is an interest rate? You might describe it as the price of money. Or in investment terms, it’s the price of liquidity. You don’t have cash now, but you expect to have it in the future.
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Thursday, September 15, 2016
The Fed Used Jackson Hole to Plan Negative Rates / Interest-Rates / Negative Interest Rates
By: John_Mauldin
Jackson Hole revealed things that did not make it into reports by the mainstream media. Turns out, the academic and philosophical underpinnings were being laid down for a radical expansion of the Federal Reserve’s toolbox.
The unthinkable policy that I’ve been warning about since last May—yes, we’re talking negative rates—was not only discussed at Jackson Hole, it was discussed in a positive, even slavishly approving, manner.
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Thursday, September 15, 2016
Unprecedented Global Bond Bubble Threatens Holders of Cash / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market
By: MoneyMetals
As big as previous real estate and stock market bubbles have been, the current global bubble in government debt dwarfs them all. Not only is it far bigger in size and scope (some $60 trillion in sovereign bonds now trade globally); it is also unprecedented in character.
The world has rarely seen a bond bull market that is not only 36 years old, but also shows few signs of ending. And never before in recorded history have interest rates gotten so low across the board.
Wednesday, September 14, 2016
The Most Political Fed in History / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank
By: Graham_Summers
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari wants us to believe that the Fed is not a political entity.
Kashkari is either ignoring reality or simply providing cover for the single most political Fed in history. This is not a Left vs. Right issue, this is an establishment vs. legitimate reform issue.
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Saturday, September 10, 2016
Negative Interest Rates Will Kill Economic Growth / Interest-Rates / Negative Interest Rates
By: Peter_Schiff
For years I have argued that ultra-low interest rates act more as an economic sedative than a stimulant. This idea has elicited laughter from the economic establishment. But it is becoming clearer that rates set by central banks that are far below the levels that free markets would have otherwise determined have dragged the world into the economic mud. The simple proof is currently arising in Europe where negative interest rates are now transforming companies from agents of growth, production, and employment into financial sloths that exist solely to borrow money.
Friday, September 09, 2016
‘Helicopter Money Coming’ – Exclusive Interview With Top Hedge Fund Manager Tom Conrad / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
By: Jeff_Berwick
TDV: Hello, Tom, thanks for sitting down with us once again. We last talked to you more than a year ago. At the time you predicted a significant stock market crash and only a month later the Dow reflected your position with a huge intra-day crash. There was huge volatility throughout the fall.
Tom Conrad: Yes, and then again in at the beginning of January of 2016.
TDV: It’s not over yet, of course.
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Thursday, September 08, 2016
Delusional Mark Carney Claims Success for Bank of England's Worthless BrExit Forecasts / Interest-Rates / BrExit
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Britain's very own Tyrion Lanister, The Master of Coin, migrant banker Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England stepped forward Wednesday to claim success both for Banks dire forecasts of economic doom, a technical recession in store for the UK economy should Brexit happen AND now also for subsequent surprisingly strong performance of the UK economy that has seen record numbers across several economic measures such as the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for August recording its largest jump in its 25 year history, or that the house price crash of 18% has failed to materialise, or that new car sales have leapt 3% against a year ago which is a sign of consumer confidence.
Wednesday, September 07, 2016
How I Got Mark Cuban to Concede That Central Banks Have Cornered the Bond Markets / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Graham_Summers
Mark Cuban just conceded to me that Central Banks have cornered the bond market.
Cuban is a billionaire investor, owner of the Dallas Mavericks, and reality TV star from Shark Tank.
He’s also begun making a series of strange media appearances in which he claims that if Donald Trump wins the US Presidency in November, “I have no doubt in my mind that the market tanks.”
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Tuesday, September 06, 2016
We’re Reaching Point Zero of Debt Creation / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Harry_Dent
Forty-five years and counting.We’ve been on a debt spree since the early 1970s when we went off the gold standard, covering every possible angle. Trade deficits, government deficits, unfunded entitlements, private debt – you name it! Our total debt has grown 2.5-times GDP since 1971.
How could economists not see this as a problem? How is this the least bit sustainable?
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Tuesday, September 06, 2016
Ireland “Especially Exposed” To “International Shocks” – Central Bank / Interest-Rates / Financial Crisis 2016
By: GoldCore
Ireland remains especially exposed to another financial shock because of the extremely high levels of public and private debt, the open nature of the economy, and Brexit, Irish Central Bank Governor Philip Lane has warned in a pre-budget letter to Minister for Finance, Michael Noonan.
Read full article... Read full article...“Ireland is especially exposed due to the legacy of high public and private debt levels, the sensitivity of small, highly-open economies to international shocks and Brexit-related vulnerabilities,” Ireland’s Central Bank Governor said.
Sunday, September 04, 2016
Negative Interest Rates and the War on Cash (1) / Interest-Rates / War on Cash
By: Raul_I_Meijer
It’s been a while, but Nicole Foss is back at the Automatic Earth -which makes me very happy-, and for good measure, she starts out with a very long article. So long in fact that we have decided to turn it into a 4-part series, if only just to show you that we do care about your health and well-being, as well as your families and social lives. The other 3 parts will follow in the next few days, and at the end we will publish the entire piece in one post.
Friday, September 02, 2016
30 Year US Treasury Bonds Analysis / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Austin_Galt
We are looking for a final top to the massive bond bull market that began in 1981. While it is possible the final top is in place, I am leaning to one final marginal high before everything goes belly up.Let’s review the quarterly and weekly charts of the 30 Year US Treasury Bond price.
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Wednesday, August 31, 2016
Green Bond Market Will Continue To Grow / Interest-Rates / Renewable Energy
By: Chris_Vermeulen
If a bond has a negative yield, then the bondholders will lose their money on their investment. In the long run, their expectations are lower and consequently they lose the incentive to invest — which may have far-reaching repercussions.
Green Bonds Are Changing Investor Expectation’s
The rapid growth of the green bond market has sparked interest from many audiences.
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Wednesday, August 31, 2016
Debt Bubble in Ireland and Globally / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis 2016
By: GoldCore
Mark O’Byrne, Research Director of GoldCore, was interviewed by Max Keiser about the arrival of negative interest rates in Ireland and Germany, the risk of bail-ins, the return of a rental and property bubble in Dublin, the Irish and global debt bubble and why wealthy individuals and institutions are diversifying into gold.
Wednesday, August 31, 2016
Awareness of Fed Credibility Problems Going Mainstream / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank
By: MoneyMetals
The nation’s pre-eminent central planners just held their annual gathering at an exclusive resort just outside Jackson Hole, Wyoming and discussed how to interfere even more deeply in markets. In a speech entitled “The Federal Reserve’s Monetary Policy Toolkit: Past, Present and Future,” Fed chair Janet Yellen outlined why zero interest rate policy (ZIRP), purchases of toxic mortgage securities, and monetization of Treasury debt just aren’t adequate. Officials must add negative interest rates (NIRP) and purchases of even more sketchy assets to their “toolkit.”
Yellen has spent more than a year floating the idea of negative rates, so it is no surprise she is hustling the ludicrous policy once again. In fact, very little of what she said Friday is new. It was the usual mess of contradictions.
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Wednesday, August 31, 2016
Why the Convoluted Message From Yellen? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Gary_Tanashian
Why the tough talk out of one side of her mouth and ‘other policy tools’ language out of the other (ref. Yellen Lays Out Tools… )? Oh, I don’t know. Maybe it has something to do with this…
The stock market has merrily followed money supply aggregates upward since 2009. When money supply decelerates the market corrects. When money supply ramps upward the market ramps upward. Money supply has been rolling over since 2014, which was not coincidentally when the first tremors began for the stock market in its recently completed top (that wasn’t). From SlopeCharts…
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Tuesday, August 30, 2016
King of Debt vs. Queen of Deficits / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Michael_Pento
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates the total deficit for fiscal 2016 will be $590 billion. This is $152 billion (34%) greater than the shortfall posted in fiscal year 2015. And by 2026 the deficit would be considerably larger as a share of the nation’s output (GDP) than its average over the past 50 years.
In addition to this, debt held by the public would rise significantly from its already high level, reaching 86% of GDP by 2026.
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Monday, August 29, 2016
President Obama To Leave $20 Trillion Debt Crisis For Clinton Or Trump / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: GoldCore
President Obama is set to leave a massive near $20 trillion debt crisis for his successor – be that Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
The U.S. national debt reached $19.5 trillion last week and has been increasing by roughly $1 trillion a year during his Presidency and during the so called “recovery” as the U.S. government continues to spend money like a drunken sailor.
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Thursday, August 25, 2016
Bond Guru Gary Shilling - The Bond Market Rally of a Lifetime / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: John_Mauldin
In 1981, as inflation and Treasury yields were screaming to new heights, my good friend Gary Shilling announced, “We’re entering the bond rally of a lifetime.” He was right. That bond rally is already 35 years old, and I think it will continue.
Gary also thinks the rally is still underway. He backs up that claim with a compelling case for Treasurys and for the “long bond” (the 30 year).
Gary recalls his famous public debate on stocks versus bonds with Professor Jeremy Siegel of Wharton, in 2006. This was just before the Great Recession kicked in and sent Treasury prices sky-high. Siegel remarked to the audience, “I don’t know why anyone in their right mind would tie up their money for 30 years for a 4.75% yield” (the then-yield on the 30-year Treasury).
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