Category: UK Interest Rates
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Wednesday, August 08, 2018
Borrowers and Savers - How to Survive the Base Interest Rates Rise / Personal_Finance / UK Interest Rates
By: MoneyFacts
Just a few short days after the Bank of England’s historic base rate increase to 0.75%, everyone has had time for the news to sink in. Now it is time for both borrowers and savers to take action – but what can be done?
Charlotte Nelson, Finance Expert at Moneyfacts.co.uk, said:
“A base rate rise can either be a blessing or a curse depending on where you stand. Regardless of whether you are a borrower or a saver, there are things you can do now to help either get the most from your savings pot or soften the blow of the rise itself.”
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Thursday, August 02, 2018
Bank of England Base Rate Increases to 0.75% / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: MoneyFacts
The Bank of England’s decision to increase interest rates from 0.50% to 0.75% marks the first time the base rate has risen above 0.50% in almost 10 years. But what does this latest increase mean to the average person on the street?
Charlotte Nelson, Finance Expert at Moneyfacts.co.uk, said:
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Thursday, May 10, 2018
UK Base Rate Remains on hold – What it Means for Savers and Borrowers / Personal_Finance / UK Interest Rates
By: MoneyFacts
The lead-up to the Bank of England’s latest base rate decision has been a rocky road, with the markets changing their prediction from odds on to unlikely in the space of a few days. Today’s announcement to keep interest rates on hold confirms this past week’s predictions, and is likely to be met with frustration by savers and relief by borrowers.
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Monday, January 08, 2018
UK Base Interest Rate Rise Aftermath Sees Mortgage Competition Slow / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: MoneyFacts
Moneyfacts UK Mortgage Trends Treasury Report data (not yet published) reveals a sharp slowdown in mortgage competition, just two short months after the Bank of England increased the base rate.
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Friday, November 03, 2017
Bank of England Base Rate increases to 0.50% / Personal_Finance / UK Interest Rates
By: MoneyFacts
The Bank of England’s decision to increase interest rates from 0.25% to 0.50% marks the first increase to base rate in over 10 years, and is the result of higher inflation and persistent uncertainty surrounding Brexit. What does this mean for the average consumer?
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Thursday, November 02, 2017
Bank of England Hikes UK Interest Rates 100%, Reversing BREXIT PANIC Cut! / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Bank of England with much forewarning hiked UK interest rates by 100% today, raising the base interest rate from 0.25% to 0.5%. However, before everyone starts to panic that this heralds the start towards of rates rising to pre 2008 levels, instead the reality is that all that the Bank of England has done is to reverse the PANIC BREXIT INTEREST RATE CUT of August 2016. Which had seen the Bank of England cut interest rates to there lowest levels in the Bank of England's 320 year history. Which followed over 7 years of rates being held at 0.5% the duration of which had seen virtually ALL economists reveal the true extent of their ineptitude as they had collectively consistently forecast that UK Interest rates were always just about to head higher, that a a series of rate hikes were always just months away, which not only never materialised but culminated in the reality of a RATE CUT last year!
Tuesday, October 10, 2017
Six-month Surge in One Year Fixed Interest Rates / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: MoneyFacts
The recovery in the savings market over the past six months has caused the average one-year fixed bond rate to surpass the average return that was available on a two-year fixed bond back in April 2017, according to the latest research by moneyfacts.co.uk.
Today, the average return on a one-year fixed bond has hit 1.14%, a marked increase from April, when the average one-year bond paid less than 1%. At the same time, the average two-year bond paid 1.13%, below the one-year average of today.
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Monday, October 09, 2017
UK Base Rate Speculation Causes Fixed Interest Rates to Rise / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: MoneyFacts
Moneyfacts UK Mortgage Trends Treasury Report data, not yet published, highlights that as SWAP rates have seen a steep increase due to base rate speculation, the average two-year fixed rate mortgage is also starting to rise.
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Wednesday, August 31, 2016
UK Savings Market Left Devastated after Base Interest Rate Cut / Personal_Finance / UK Interest Rates
By: MoneyFacts
The Bank of England’s decision to drop the base rate has officially fuelled the fire of rate cuts across the savings market, making August the worst month of the year for cuts which total a devastating 354, compared to just 3 rate rises. This means that for every rate rise during the month there were 118 cuts.
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Thursday, August 04, 2016
Bank of England Base Rate Cut to 0.25% - Savings, Mortgages and Pensions / Personal_Finance / UK Interest Rates
By: MoneyFacts
The Bank of England’s decision to cut interest rates from 0.50% to 0.25% marks the first interest rate change in over seven years and is the result of market uncertainty stemming from the EU referendum vote. So what does this mean for the average consumer?
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Thursday, August 04, 2016
UK interest Rate PANIC CUT! As Banks Prepare to Steal Customer Deposits / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Today is the day when UK interest rates will be cut from 0.5% to probably 0.25%, there lowest levels for over 320 year history of the Bank of England. Which follows over 7 years of rates being held at 0.5% the duration of which has seen virtually ALL economists reveal their true level of ineptitude as they have collectively consistently forecast that UK Interest rates were always just about to head higher, that the start of a series of rate hikes was just months away, which not only never materialised but is now hit with the reality of a RATE CUT! And probably announce an additional QE of at least £50 billion to monetize UK government debt and generate artificial profits for the Bank of England's banking sector brethren.
Friday, July 01, 2016
UK Interest Rate Cut to 0.25% Imminent and More QE Money Printing / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The establishments operation fear had painted a relentless propaganda picture all year for a significant rise in UK interest rates following a Brexit outcome that was destined to send consumer borrowing rates soaring, which at the time I repeatedly warned was just NOT going to happen for the fundamental reason that BrExit induced uncertainty would make a rate hike LESS likely as the last thing the Bank of England would want to do is to add to market uncertainty i.e. the complete opposite to REMAIN propaganda. In fact I stated that a BrExit could even result in a rate CUT as the following excerpt illustrates:
Saturday, April 23, 2016
UK Interest Rates, Economy GDP Forecasts 2016 and 2017 / News_Letter / UK Interest Rates
By: NewsLetter
The Market Oracle Newsletter6th Feb, 2016 Issue # 4 Vol. 10
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Wednesday, February 10, 2016
UK Interest Rates, Economy Forecasts 2016 and 2017 - Video / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Is the UK 6 year long panic low of 0.5% interest rates over? Are rates about to start on a trend towards normalisation as the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney was stating would happen barely 6 months ago? Or will the Bank of England remain paralysed by fear of a banking sector armageddon? And what are the interest rate implications from Britain's forthcoming EU referendum i.e. the risks of BrExit that could trigger much market uncertainty.
Saturday, February 06, 2016
UK Interest Rates, Economy GDP Forecasts 2016 and 2017 / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Six months ago Bank of England Governor, Mark Carney in 'forward guidance' at the time gave his intentions to start to raise UK interest rates early 2016, that in the run up to the Fed December rate hike had galvanised many to expect a similar trailing response from the Bank of England to gradually follow the Fed towards normalisation of UK interest rates towards a target of 2.5% over 3 years i.e. by Mid 2018.
"Short-term interest rates have averaged around 4.5% since around the Bank's inception three centuries ago, the same average as during the pre-crisis period when inflation was at target...
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Thursday, November 05, 2015
The Bank of England Keeps Interest Rates at 321-Year Lows / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Mario_Innecco
We hear constantly from the U.K. government and mainstream publications like the Financial Times that the economy of Great Britain is recovering strongly and that the labour market is robust so it is probably surprising for many people that in spite of the strong growth in the U.K. economy that the Bank of England has kept its base rate at 0.5%. This almost zero interest rate has been kept since March 5th, 2009 when the MPC or Monetary Policy Committee cut the base rate from 1% to 0.5% and at the time it was understandable as the U.K. financial system was on the brink of a total meltdown and the U.K. government had to write a cheque and issue loan guarantees for £500 billion to bail out the big banks.
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Thursday, June 18, 2015
UK Jobs, BoE, Sterling and Yield Spreads / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Ashraf_Laidi
Today's UK jobs figures powered the pound across the board as average weekly earnings growth (excluding bonuses) shot up to a six-year high of 2.7% in the three months to April y/y, exceeding market expectations for a 2.1% rise. Substracting the 0.1% level of inflation, real earnings come in at 2.6%, also the highest since 2009. If wage gains persist on their upward trend, then wage cost inflation would follow, forcing the gilt market to price more aggressive expectations for a BoE rate hike.
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Thursday, May 21, 2015
Illusions of Time and a Ship of Fools / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Tom_Naysburn
Election success has handed Mr Cameron and the Conservatives sole charge of the ship and the opportunity to fashion a new rudder with which he can chart a course through these shark invested waters.
It’s been said many times before that the only conversation ever worth having in politics or intellectual discourse is about “the money”, not because it in itself has any great value to society, but because we value everything we do in it. This is undoubtedly true yet so few want to talk about it, just look at the mainstream media who appear to feign the belief that the economics world is flat and the sun rises twice a day. Most of them maybe blissfully ignorant of their acquiescence but those who do stand on the bridge of the ship of fools in a grubby and tawdry garb.
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Wednesday, December 17, 2014
Wall Street Will Always Find An Excuse For Not Raising U.S. Interest Rates / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: EconMatters
Reasons or Excuses?
The reasons for the Fed not raising rates keep getting more bizarre and outside the scope of what used to constitute the Fed`s purview. First it was the financial crisis, then it was GDP growth not being up to par, then it was inflation not being robust enough, then it was employment being too soft, next it became China is slowing, then it became Europe is slowing, then it was Wall Street will sell off and there will be too much volatility, then it became lack of wage growth, next it was the Dollar was too strong, and now it is that Energy is too cheap. I am sure I missed at least 5 other reasons that have come and gone for the Fed not raising rates over the last 7 plus years of this ZIRP Fed Wall Street Welfare program.
Monday, September 23, 2013
Fed Puts Ceiling on Long-Term Interest Rates / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Michael_Pento
The President of the Europe’s central bank said back in July of 2012 that it would fight rising borrowing costs by doing “whatever it takes” to ensure sovereign bond yields do not spiral out of control. This past week Mr. Bernanke took a page from Mario Draghi’s playbook and tacitly indicated that the Fed will now also promise to keep long-term interest rates from rising by any means necessary.
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Wednesday, August 07, 2013
Bank of England 0.5% Interest Rates for 7% Unemployment, to Result in 7% Inflation, Ongoing Savings Theft / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
"We won't even begin to think about raising interest rates until we see the unemployment rate go to 7%" - Mark Carney. With that the new Governor of the Bank of England did away with over 4 years of Mervyn Kings smoke and mirrors propaganda of temporary emergency low interests of just 0.5%, and money printing of £500 billion, the consequence of which is theft of purchasing power from savings and worker wages by means of high real inflation, transferring this stolen wealth to the bankrupt banking crime syndicate, and the government so that it can continue to maintain vested interest voting blocks, by bribing the electorate with debt and printed money that is not backed by any economic activity.
Thursday, May 09, 2013
Bank of England Celebrates 50 Months of Stealth Inflation Theft From Savers and Tax payers / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Bank of England today kept interest on hold at 0.5% for the 50th month, as Britain's central bank continues to support its bankster brethren in the crime syndicate that calls itself Britain's banks who continue to literally get away with crimes without any real consequences as evidenced by the over 6 year old LIBOR scandal that the mainstream press and financial regulator only awoke to mid last year. As far as I am ware no one has gone to prison for this mega-fraud, instead the CEO's of Britians major banks have been retired on mega-pension handouts whilst all of the fines are at the end of the day being picked up by British tax payers.
Wednesday, February 06, 2013
Low Interest Rates Impoverish Savers / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: BATR
Even the most ardent optimist has to confront the consequences of low interest rates. The macro analysis of ivory tower academics seldom reflects the struggle of ordinary consumers or retirees. One such pinhead is Ben Bernanke. Back on October 1, 2012 at the Economic Club of Indiana, the Federal Reserve Chairman employs sophistry of a major order. Such confused and twisted logic defies common sense and real world finance. Robert Romano writes in the article, More monetary alchemy from Bernanke: Low interest rates help savers.
Thursday, March 08, 2012
BoE Interest Rate Ddecision / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Submissions
Gareth Talbot submits: Following today’s Bank of England interest rate decision Phil McHugh, senior analyst at foreign exchange firm Currencies Direct, said:
“The pound fell to a one week low against the euro in the run up to the BoE rate decision although remained steady on the announcement. The decision as expected was to maintain rates at 0.5% and to hold fire on the asset purchasing programme.
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Friday, June 24, 2011
Mervyn King's Interest Rate Spread Bet / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Ben_Traynor
The Bank of England won't raise rates until it knows it won't make a difference…
THE BANK OF ENGLAND is getting more dovish. It seems less inclined than ever to raise interest rates – despite inflation currently running at over twice the target rate.
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Thursday, June 09, 2011
Stealth Theft of Wealth by Means of Low Interest Rates and High Inflation Continues / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Bank of England left UK interest rates on hold at 0.5% (for 2 years and 3 months) which compares against an official CPI inflation rate of 4.5% that illustrates the continuing UK government policy (regardless of which party is in power) for the stealth theft of wealth from workers and savers so as to funnel cash onto the balance sheets of bankrupt banks and for the financing of government deficit spending (buying of votes).
Monday, March 28, 2011
The Interest Rate Mega-Trend Ebook and Forthcoming Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update / News_Letter / UK Interest Rates
By: NewsLetter
The Market Oracle NewsletterMar 21st, 2011 Issue #6 Vol. 5
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Monday, March 28, 2011
UK Interest Rate Forecast 2011, Paralysed Bank of England Still Fears Financial Armageddon / Economics / UK Interest Rates
By: NewsLetter
The Market Oracle NewsletterMar 8th, 2011 Issue #4 Vol. 5
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Thursday, March 10, 2011
Bank of England Interest Rate Indecision, UK Rates Held at 0.5% for 2 Years / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Bank of England again decided to do nothing by keeping the UK base interest rate on hold at 0.5% for now 2 full years whilst the inflation fires are burning out of control, rapidly consuming the purchasing power of workers and life time accumulated value of savings. The Bank of England exists purely to service the interest of the bankster elite as evidenced by the fact it funnels cash to the banks at 0.5% to buy government bonds at 3.5% (on leverage) and thus make an instant profit of 60%, whilst the clueless in the mainstream press continue to wonder why the Banks are not lending, they are not lending because they are making risk free profits due artificially held low interest rates, a normalised base interest rate should be north of RPI (5.1%).
Tuesday, March 08, 2011
UK Interest Rate Forecast 2011 - Conclusion and Implications - Part 2 / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This analysis continues from Part 1 Here
Bank of England Remains Paralysed By Fear of Financial Armageddon
Since August 2007 when the credit crisis first broke the Bank of England has been in near perpetual state of panic, always opting to do nothing rather than something. For instance during 2008 the Bank of England should have been cutting interest rates but instead it kept them on hold at 5% as it remained paralysed by the fear of inflation right up until the world peered over the abyss at financial armageddon.
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Tuesday, March 08, 2011
UK Interest Rate Forecast 2011, Paralysed Bank of England Still Fears Financial Armageddon / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Britain's coalition government pressed the reset button on the UK Economy during summer 2010, as it has continued to make a plethora of tax raising and spending cut economic austerity announcements over the past 9 months in an attempt to get a grip on the Labour government's legacy of an out of control annual budget deficit of over £150 billion per year that risked bankrupting Britain.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, August 25, 2010
UK Government Bonds Gilts vs Gold, Vying for “Safe Haven” Money / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Gary_Dorsch
“I care not what puppet is placed upon the throne of England to rule the Empire on which the sun never sets. The man that controls Britain’s money supply controls the British Empire, and I control the British money supply,” declared Baron Nathan Mayer de Rothschild, - once the richest man in Europe. In 1840, NM Rothschild was appointed as the bullion broker to the Bank of England, and went on to operate the Royal Mint Refinery in 1852. Nathan gained a position of such enormous power in the City of London that he was able to supply enough money to the Bank of England to enable it to avert a market liquidity crisis.
Monday, May 31, 2010
OECD UK Interest Rates Must Rise to 3.5% During 2011 To Combat Inflation / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The OECD academic economics institution says that UK interest rates should rise to 3.5% by the end of 2011 to combat inflation. The OECD inline with other academic economics institutions remains as much as 6 months behind the curve by stating the obvious that inflation is too high AFTER inflation has risen to a 19 year high with RPI hitting 5.3% and CPI at 3.7%, by warning of higher UK interest rates AFTER market interest rates have already risen.
Friday, April 23, 2010
Short Sterling and the U.K. General Election / ElectionOracle / UK Interest Rates
By: Seven_Days_Ahead
The Macro Trader’s view:
How will the election affect the Short Sterling market?
Until recently it was widely assumed in the market that UK interest rates were on hold for the rest of 2010. The Bank of England suggested that a spike in inflation would soon resolve to below-target CPI for much of the two-year forecast period.
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Tuesday, March 09, 2010
UK Savings Interest Rates Tumble to Fund Mortgage Cuts / Personal_Finance / UK Interest Rates
By: MoneyFacts
In order to maintain their balance sheets, providers can either offer competitive mortgage or saving deals, not both.
Since November 2009, mortgage rates have been reducing, but in order to fund these cuts, savings rates have fallen too (see appendix).
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Sunday, January 24, 2010
UK Interest Rate Forecast 2010 and 2011 / News_Letter / UK Interest Rates
By: NewsLetter
The Market Oracle Newsletter January 13th, 2010 Issue #3 Vol. 4Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, January 15, 2010
UK Interest Rates Rise 2010 Sentance / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The mainstream press this week is starting to fragment from its near consensus view that interest rates would remain unchanged or little changed well into 2011 following a few sentences from Andrew Sentance, a member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee who's comments have been jumped upon to now generate headlines of interest rate rises this year though backed up with little or no actual analytical substance, which is highly suggestive of the press again flip flopping in the opposite direction every other week going forward.
Wednesday, January 13, 2010
UK Interest Rate Forecast 2010 and 2011 / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The British Economy as with other developed economies entered 2009 in recession and on the brink of Depression which triggered a series of panic interest rate cuts all the way to 0.5% by March 2009 and they have stayed there right into the start of 2010. This in-depth analysis is third in a series of analysis that seeks to generate accurate forecasts for UK Inflation, GDP Growth and Interest Rates for 2010 and beyond. The whole analysis and implications of which will be published as an ebook that I will make available for FREE, ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter to get the completed scenario in your email in-box.
Tuesday, January 12, 2010
UK, U.S. and Euro Interest Rate Trends Analysis / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This analysis forms part of a series that aims resolve in an accurate UK interest rate forecast for 2010 which follows in depth analysis and forecasts for UK inflation and economy. Ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter to receive the final analysis and forecast in your email in box.
Tuesday, January 12, 2010
British Pound Currency Trends and the UK Base Interest Rate / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This analysis forms part of a series that aims resolve in an accurate UK interest rate forecast for 2010 which follows in depth analysis and forecasts for UK inflation and economy.
Tuesday, January 12, 2010
Improving UK Mortgage Lending Feeding the House Prices Bounce / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This analysis forms part of a series that aims resolve in an accurate UK interest rate forecast for 2010 which follows in depth analysis and forecasts for UK inflation and economy.
Monday, January 11, 2010
LIBOR / UK Base Interest Rate Spread Analysis / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This analysis forms part of a series that aims resolve in an accurate UK interest rate forecast for 2010 which follows in depth analysis and forecasts for UK inflation and economy.
Sunday, January 10, 2010
UK Interest Rates and GDP Growth Trend Relationship / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This analysis forms part of a series that aims resolve in an accurate UK interest rate forecast for 2010 which follows in depth analysis and forecasts for UK inflation and economy.
Saturday, January 09, 2010
UK interest Rates and M4 Money Supply Relationship / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This analysis forms part of a series that aims resolve in an accurate UK interest rate forecast for 2010 which follows in depth analysis and forecasts for UK inflation and economy.
Saturday, January 09, 2010
Do UK Interest Rates Lead or Lag Inflation? / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This analysis forms part of a series that aims resolve in an accurate UK interest rate forecast for 2010 which follows in depth analysis and forecasts for UK inflation and economy.
Sunday, December 27, 2009
UK Interest Rate Being Kept Artificially Low For Bank Profiteering / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This UK interest rate analysis represents the next in a series of analysis as part of my unfolding inflationary mega-trend scenario towards the formulation of 2010 forecasts for inflation, interest rates and economy. I aim to complete the whole scenario and implications of before the end of December which will be published as an ebook that I will make available for FREE. Ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter to get the latest analysis in your email box and check my most recent analysis on the probable inflation mega-trend at http://www.walayatstreet.com
Monday, October 12, 2009
CEBR UK Interest Rate Forecasts 0.5% Until 2011, Below 2% until 2014 / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) is forecasting that UK interest rates will stay at 0.5% into 2011 and not reach 2% until 2014.
Monday, October 12, 2009
Bank of England MPC UK Inflation Forecasting Track Record Analysis / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Lloyds_TSB
Each year, in the August Inflation Report, the Bank of England reviews the accuracy of the inflation forecasts made by the UK Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). The reports have become of increased interest, as there has been a suspicion that the policy committee has been unduly conservative about the inflation risks facing the UK economy. If true, this would suggest that over the past decade monetary policy may have been tighter than it should have been given the MPC’s strict inflation remit. By extension, GDP growth may have been commensurately, but unnecessarily, weaker. However, some also argue that the MPC has underestimated inflation. If so, there is a risk that policy has been too loose, potentially leading to higher inflation.
Thursday, October 08, 2009
Bank of England Keeps UK Real Interest Rate at Minus 1.1% / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Bank of England as expected has kept the UK base interest rate on hold at 0.5% which translates into a real interest rate of -1.1% adjusted for CPI inflation of 1.6% which continues to seek to punish savers for the crimes of the bankers.
Sunday, July 26, 2009
Darling Warns UK Banks on Loan Interest Rates / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Sarah_Jones
The Chancellor, Alistair Darling is "Extremely concerned" at the high interest rate being charged to small firms.
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Thursday, July 09, 2009
Irrelevant UK Base Interest Rate on Hold as Real Rates have Already Begun to Rise / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Bank of England is expected to keep UK interest rates on hold at 0.5% today for a fourth month. However the deep interest rate cuts have failed to lift the economy out of recession, hence the reason why the Bank of England has detonated the monetary policy equivalent of a nuclear bomb in the form of Quantitative Easing, printing £125 billion of electronic money primarily to monetize government debt to help finance the huge annual budget deficit that is mushrooming towards £180 billion for 2009 alone by artificially keeping longer term interest rates lower.
Friday, June 19, 2009
UK Gilt Bond Market Looks Vulnerable At These Better Levels / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Seven_Days_Ahead
The Technical Trader’s view:
Friday, June 12, 2009
Is Short Sterling Topping Out? / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Seven_Days_Ahead
The Technical Trader’s view:
Thursday, April 23, 2009
LIBOR Interest Rate Nudges Below 1.5% On Quantitative Easing and Price Deflation / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The 3 Month Inter bank Money Market Interest Rate (LIBOR) drifted below 1.5% for the first time in over 50 years despite the budget busting deficit budget delivered on Tuesday. The prime drivers of lower LIBOR rates are the Bank of England providing near unlimited liquidity to the Banking System coupled with the 0.5% base rate coupled with Quantitative Easing (monetization of debt) with the prime aim of driving down interest rates across the curve i.e. from the short end to the long-end. This is further reinforced by the deflationary driven sentiment following RPI of -0.4% for March.
Tuesday, April 21, 2009
UK Savings Interest Rates in Free Fall, Pensioners Pay the Price / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: MoneyFacts
Savings rates are still in freefall with the average no notice rate currently at 0.64%, just above bank base rate.The recent published inflation figures shows that the real return after basic tax and inflation on an average no notice savings account is 1.06 per cent for RPI, but is at a worrying minus 2.24 per cent for CPI.
Thursday, April 09, 2009
UK Interest Rates on Hold, the Easing of Quantitative Easing? / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
UK Interest rates are expected to be kept on hold at today's MPC meeting at the record low of 0.5%, which is indicative of the FAILURE of monetary policy to counter the economic slump as the economy started to fall off the edge of the cliff during the summer months of 2008 in the wake of a housing market in freefall as bank after bank teetered on the edge of bankruptcy requiring literally a £1 trillion tax payer guarantee and capital injection bailouts to prevent financial armageddon. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, April 01, 2009
UK Savings and Mortgage Interest Rates After Base Rate Cut / Personal_Finance / UK Interest Rates
By: MoneyFacts
Last month the Bank of England cut bank base rate to the lowest level in its 315 year history. One month on and we can see the impact the cut has had on savings and mortgage rates.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, February 07, 2009
Panic UK Interest Rate Cuts: Inflation to Follow Deflation? / News_Letter / UK Interest Rates
By: NewsLetter
February 5th , 2009 Issue #8 Vol. 3The Bank of England fired the fifth shot in its series of panic interest rate cuts that have taken the base interest down from 5% in October 2008 to 1% today. This follows the crash in UK GDP for the fourth quarter of 2008 which contracted by -1.5% and is inline with earlier analysis that projects towards an additional 3% GDP contraction for 2009.
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Thursday, February 05, 2009
UK Interest Rates Crash to 1% New Record Low / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Bank of England fired the fifth shot in its series of panic interest rate cuts that have taken the base interest down from 5% in October 2008 to 1% today. This follows the crash in UK GDP for the fourth quarter of 2008 which contracted by -1.5% and is inline with earlier analysis that projects towards an additional 3% GDP contraction for 2009. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 08, 2009
UK Interest Rate Cut to New All Time Low of 1.5% / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Bank of England cut UK interest rates earlier today by 0.5% to 1.5%, the lowest that the base rate has been in the BoE's 315 year history. The series of rate cuts are a belated panic response to the UK economy plunging over the edge of a cliff that looks set to endure GDP contraction of 3% this year which is worse than any 12 month period since World War 2. Sterling rallied from near record lows against the Euro buoyed by a less than expected cut as many market commentators had expected rates to be cut by 1% today. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, December 11, 2008
UK Interest Rate Forecast 2009 / News_Letter / UK Interest Rates
By: NewsLetter
December 4th , 2008 Issue #41 Vol. 2Gordon Browns government having abandoned all of the fiscal rules that it once prided itself on religiously following, is now hell bent on kick starting the UK economy in advance of the looming May 2010 general election deadline. The steady as she goes economic policy has been replaced by the panicking 'unprecedented action's' economic policy and in that having rested away control of UK interest setting from the Bank of England in all but name, UK interest rates are now set to be the latest to take a crash course towards an unprecedented level of just 1%.
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Friday, December 05, 2008
Bank of England's Money Printing Nuclear Option / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Mark_OByrne
Gold fell nearly 0.6% yesterday on light volume as the dollar was mixed and oil and most commodities fell sharply again. Gold in euros and particularly British pounds rose sharply when interest rates were slashed by the ECB and BoE. Both central banks indicated that more cuts were likely. Gold has given up some of yesterday’s gains but remains firm in British pounds and Euros at £526/oz and €604/oz respectively.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, December 04, 2008
UK Interest Rates Forecast to Crash to 1% / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Gordon Browns government having abandoned all of the fiscal rules that it once prided itself on religiously following, is now hell bent on kick starting the UK economy in advance of the looming May 2010 general election deadline. The steady as she goes economic policy has been replaced by the panicking 'unprecedented action's' economic policy and in that having rested away control of UK interest setting from the Bank of England in all but name, UK interest rates are now set to be the latest to take a crash course towards an unprecedented level of just 1%.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, November 28, 2008
Gold and UK interest Rates as Proxy for Global Price of Money / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Adrian_Ash
"...The nine decades of gold simply need not apply. Because there's just too much money chasing too many votes to make such a limiting system appeal..."
CENTRAL BANKING used to be easy, back when there was so little to do. You raised interest rates to attract an inflow of gold, supporting your currency on the foreign exchanges and restraining new credit at home. Or you cut interest rates to deter savers, and give the economy a shot of cheap money.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, November 25, 2008
LIBOR Still at Credit Crisis Extremes as Banks Refusing to Lend / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) continues to fall from credit quake extremes, today falling to below 100 basis points (3 month) above the base interest rate that was cut in a panic move to 3% earlier this month. However as the below graph illustrates a 1% spread is still uncomfortably near credit crisis extremes and therefore implies that the banks are still reluctant to lend to one another which was confirmed by the Bank of England Governor Mervyn King who stated that extreme measures may be necessary to force the banks to lend again which in the final analysis implies nationalisation of the whole of british retail banking sector. Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, November 09, 2008
Bank of England Plays Interest Rate Catch-up as Sterling Suffers / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Ashraf_Laidi
The Bank of England's shocker 150-bp cut to 3.00% (lowest level since 1955) against expectations of 50-bp cut is the biggest rate cut since the central bank acquired operation independence 11 years ago. The Swiss National Bank also surprised with an unscheduled 50-bp rate cut to 1.75%. The European Central Bank stuck with a widely expected 50-bp cut to 3.25%. ECB president JC Trichet says the bank does not rule out further rate cuts and cannot rule out sharp decline in inflation next year. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, November 07, 2008
UK Shock and Awe Interest Rate Cut / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Adrian_Ash
"I say, I say, I say – Did you hear about the joke of a central banker...?"
SHOCK and AWE was never supposed to be the Bank of England's approach.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, November 06, 2008
UK 1% Interest Rate Cut / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The MPC meeting is widely expected by the consensus to cut UK interest rates by 0.5% today, however as my recent articles (Credit Quake Persists Ahead of UK Interest Rate Cut of 1%?) have concluded that effectively Gordon Brown cracked the MPC round table in half when he stood up at the House of Commons despatch box on 8th October to announce the interest rate cut of 0.5%, which was followed by the Bank of England's announcement. This suggests that the Monetary Policy Committee is now no longer totally in the control of setting UK interest rates and therefore in many aspects control has been transferred back into the Governments hands.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, November 05, 2008
Abbey Raises Rates by 0.5% ahead of Interest UK Rate Cut / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Abbey in a slight of hand raised interest rates by 0.5% on its tracker range of mortgages in advance of Thursdays expected 0.5% UK base interest rate cut. This slight of hand of raising rates ahead of a rate cut then announcing cuts following the Bank of England rate cut is nothing new, for I first voiced this bad practice some 10 months ago in the article - UK Interest Rates Cuts Will Not Help the Housing Market. That the banks practice of quietly raising rates prior to interest rate cuts followed by loud announcements following the cuts thus little or no change in the mortgage rates. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, November 03, 2008
Credit Quake Persists Ahead of UK Interest Rate Cut of 1%? / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Bank of England is expected to follow last weeks U.S. interest rate cut of 0.5% by cutting UK interest rates at Thursdays MPC meeting, speculation is growing that in the face of the economic meltdown of the economy that is falling off the edge of a cliff, that the Bank will take the unprecedented action of cutting interest rates by a whole 1%. The problem here is that as I have observed and commented on these past few years is that the Bank of England's MPC is incompetent , having repeatedly failed in all respects, which is especially apparent in its primary objective of pegging UK inflation at CPI 2% and between the boundaries of 1% and 3%, therefore will the MPC be able to make the leap and cut interest rates by a whole 1% as the economy demands ? , read on... Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, October 09, 2008
UK Interest Rate Forecast 2009 / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: NewsLetter
October 8th , 2008 Issue #33 Vol. 2Dear Reader,
The credit crisis has intensified during the last few weeks to a new manic stage as entire countries are put at risk of bankruptcy due to their banking system rescue attempts exploding liabilities, as the demand goes out for 100% guarantees of depositors and country after country buckles under the pressure so as to prevent a collapse of their individual banking systems.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, October 08, 2008
UK Interest Rate Cut Surprises Markets / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Bank of England took emergency action ahead of the scheduled Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) rate setting meeting tomorrow to cut the UK base interest rate by 0.50%.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, October 08, 2008
UK Interest Rate Forecast 2009 / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The credit crisis has intensified during the last few weeks to a new manic stage as entire countries are put at risk of bankruptcy due to their banking system rescue attempts exploding liabilities, as the demand goes out for 100% guarantees of depositors and country after country buckles under the pressure so as to prevent a collapse of their individual banking systems. However ever increasing and desperate government bailout cash in the form of escalating amounts of daily interbank liquidity, capital injections, and mortgage bond buy back schemes in addition to issuing depositor guarantees increases the liabilities of ALL countries the immediate consequences of which are being played out in ever increasing volatility in the currency markets and stock exchanges as record breaking points swings take place on alternative days. In such a panic stricken climate there are increasingly deafening calls are for immediate interest rate cuts across the western world including for an Imminent UK Interest Rate Cut. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, September 04, 2008
Bank of England Keeps UK Interest Rates on Hold for Final Month? / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The pressure is building on the Bank of England to start cutting interest rates with immediate effect as the UK economy plunges over the edge of the cliff, taking with it any hopes of a labour election victory. During the weekend Gordon Browns Darling chancellor finally showed signs of cracking-up under the strain of continually toeing Gordon Browns party line of ignoring the financial and economic fundamentals by painting a repetitively rosy picture for the British economy and financial system. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, August 07, 2008
UK Interest Rates on Hold as Economy heads towards Stagflation / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Bank of England paralysed by fear of igniting a wage price spiral amidst surging inflation is again expected to keep UK interest rates on hold at 5% despite the UK housing market plunging off the edge of a cliff towards what will be come to be known as the UK house price crash of Summer 2008. The UK economy is fast decelerating towards a recession during mid 2009 GDP data which would normally call for rate cuts to start now, which would require surprisingly benign yet to be released inflation data for July.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, July 29, 2008
MINUTES OF MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE MEETING 9 AND 10 JULY 2008 / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: BoE
The Bank of England Act 1998 gives the Bank of England operational responsibility for setting interest rates to meet the Government’s inflation target. Operational decisions are taken by the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee. The Committee meets on a regular monthly basis and minutes of its meetings are released on the Wednesday of the second week after the meeting takes place. Accordingly, the minutes of the Committee meeting held on 6 and 7 August will be published on 20 August 2008.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, July 24, 2008
Bank of England Hawkish on UK Interest Rates Despite Slowing Economy / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Victoria_Marklew
The relentless stream of negative economic news out of the UK has the headline writers dredging up the old specter of stagflation - a "stagnant" economy with rising inflation. While the UK isn't at the point of recession yet, and there is reason to suppose that the headline inflation rate will start to ease come year's end, the outlook is certainly deteriorating. All told, it was no surprise when the Bank of England's (BoE) nine-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) left the repo rate unchanged at 5.0% on July 10. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, July 10, 2008
UK Interest Rates On Hold as Bank of England is Paralysed by Fear of Inflation / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee is expected to keep interest rates on hold for a third month at 5%
at today's meeting despite widespread calls for a rate cut in response to a collapsing housing market and an economy that is fast falling off the edge of a cliff, which is accompanied by more distress in the banking sector that saw Bradford and Bingley teetering on the brink of collapse earlier this week which resulted in the FSA leaning on the big UK banks to bailout the mortgage bank by agreeing to buy unsold stock at the rights issue price of 55p, against yesterdays close of 43p.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, June 05, 2008
UK Interest Rate to be Kept on Hold at 5% / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee is expected to keep interest rates on hold at 5% at today's meeting. UK inflation hit the Bank of England's upper boundary of 3% CPI in April 08, therefore ruling out the possibility of a further rate cut despite a sharp slow down in economic activity with UK growth on target to hit the Market Oracle forecast of 1.3% for 2008.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, May 08, 2008
UK Interest Rates Kept on Hold at 5% / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
In a widely expected move, the Bank of England's MPC meeting kept UK interest rates on hold at 5% following Aprils cut to 5% from 5.25%.
The growing weakness in the UK economy as a consequence of the deepening credit crisis ensures that the Bank of England will continue cutting UK interest rates throughout the year, despite the rise in inflation CPI 2.5%, RPI 3.8%.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, April 13, 2008
Bank of England Applies Eggertsson Theory to Interest Rate Cut / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Mick_Phoenix
Welcome to a Weekly Report special, incorporating further discussion of last weeks Occasional Letter.
This week we look at an example of Eggertsson Theory in practise, what really worries the Fed and what is their favourite import, how expectations can be managed, why General Electric are going to struggle and I announce something a little different. A lot to cover and I am pressed for time so let's get on with it.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, March 06, 2008
UK Interest Rates Expected to be Kept on Hold at 5.25% / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Bank of England
is expected to keep UK interest rates on hold at 5.25% at today's MPC meeting despite economic data confirming a weakening housing market and economy. Rates were last cut in February 08, which was inline with the Market Oracle forecast as of August 07 and Sept 07 for UK interest rates to fall to 5% by September 2008, this was revised lower to 4.75% in January 2008 , following the US Panic rate cut of 0.75% on 22nd Jan 08 to 3.5%, which was later followed by a further 0.5% cut to take US interest rates to 3%. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, February 07, 2008
UK Interest Rates Cut to 5.25% - Will Not Help the Housing Market / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Bank of England is expected to cut UK interest rates by a quarter point to 5.25% following on from data confirming a weakening housing market and economy. The rate cut would be inline with the
Market Oracle forecast as of August 07 and Sept 07 for UK interest rates to fall to 5% by September 2008, this was revised lower to 4.75% in January 2008, following the US Panic rate cut 0.75% on 22nd Jan 08 to 3.5% which was later followed by a further 0.5% cut to 3% Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, February 05, 2008
Bank of England Interest Rate Policy Targets UK House Price Inflation / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Adrian_Ash
"...Rising inflation in the cost of living didn't stop the Old Lady cutting interest rates in 2001, 2003 or 2005. Why change now...?"
WILL THE BANK of ENGLAND cut UK interest rates this Thursday?
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 10, 2008
UK Interest Rates held at 5.5% and on Target for 5% by September 2008 / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Bank of England held interest rates at 5.50% following Decembers 0.25% cut from 5.75%, with the trend inline with the Market Oracle forecast as of 22nd August 07 for UK interest rates to fall to 5% by September 2008.
Yesterdays news of the continuing deterioration of the UK economy as over indebted consumers cut back on consumption as illustrated by Marks and Spencer's announcement of a drop on Christmas sales and calls by company's chief executive, Sir Stuart Rose, joined in calls for the Bank of England to cut interest rates to stimulate the economy, would have been countered by the increasing inflationary pressures as Gordon Brown seeks to restrain the public sector pay via a three year pay deal. Which is likely to lead to major tensions with the Unions.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, December 20, 2007
FTSE 100 Index Rallies as Interbank LIBOR Rates Continue to Tumble / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
FTSE 100 index rallied during the day, up more than 60 points at 6347 at 3pm GMT, as the 3 month sterling interbank LIBOR rate fell to 6.14% following continuing concerted central bank intervention that is starting to thaw the frozen credit markets.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 10, 2007
Bank of England Worried as Interbank Interest Rates Fail to Fall / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Bank of England responded last week with a panic interest rate cut to 5.5% on the latest signs of the UK housing market entering a bear market with the release of Halifax November House price data showing a sharp fall in house prices of 1.1%, and the liquidity squeeze that had raised the interbank rate substantially above the base rate.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 07, 2007
Analysis of Interbank and Base Interest Rate Spread / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Bank of England cut UK interest rates on Thursday. One of the primary reasons for the cut was the credit crunch, and specifically its impact on the interbank money markets, which has seen the interbank rates soar since the credit crunch exploded on the scene during August 07, due to the fact there is an increased risk of default and lack of liquidity despite subsequent liberal amounts of liquidity released by the US Fed and the European Central bank. Therefore this article analyses the spread between the base interest rate as set by the Bank of England and the money markets 3 month inter-bank lending rate.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, November 22, 2007
Bank of England Minutes Of November Monetary Policy Committee Meeting / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: BoE
These are the minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting held on 7 & 8 November 2007. The Bank of England Act 1998 gives the Bank of England operational responsibility for setting interest rates to meet the Government’s inflation target. Operational decisions are taken by the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee. The Committee meets on a regular monthly basis and minutes of its meetings are released on the Wednesday of the second week after the meeting takes place. Accordingly, the minutes of the Committee meeting held on 5 and 6 December will be published on 19 December 2007.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, November 07, 2007
UK Interest Rates Expected to be Kept on Hold at 5.75% at November's MPC Meeting / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Bank of England is expected to keep UK interest rates on hold at 5.75% at Thursday's MPC Meeting despite widespread calls for a cut in interest rates in the face of the latest rate cut in the US to 4.5%, down from 5.25% in September 07.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, October 01, 2007
UK Interest Rates Expected to be Kept on Hold at October MPC Meeting as House Prices Flat line / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Bank of England is expected to keep UK interest rates on hold at 5.75% at Thursdays MPC Meeting. Confirming forecasts that UK Interest rates have now peaked.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, September 18, 2007
UK Interest Rates Forecast to Fall to 5% by September 2008 / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The most recently released inflation data shows UK CPI Inflation falling to 1.8% and RPI rising to 4.1% for August. Even though the picture is mixed, the slowing UK housing market and economy is expected to result in further moderating of the inflation picture over the next 12 months, which is to result in a fall in UK interest rates to a target of 5% by late 2008.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, September 12, 2007
Rise in Mortgage Interest Rates To Impact UK House Prices / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The ongoing credit crunch continued to bite into the mortgage banking sector as two large UK banks announced a rise in their mortgage interest rates, this despite the Bank of England pumping extra liquidity into the money markets and continuing signs that UK Interest Rates have peaked.
Both the Abbey and Halifax have announced rises in their tracker mortgage interest rates of .2% for new borrowers. Other financial institutions are expected to follow suit with further rises expected later this year and into 2008.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, September 06, 2007
The Bank of England to the Rescue - The Threadneedle Hotline / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Adrian_Ash
"...The lowest interest rates for 40 years! Employment at a record high! More debt per working family than any other people in history..."
THE BANK OF ENGLAND chose not to raise Sterling base rates on Thursday, despite the UK money supply growing at a two-decade record.
It also made fresh short-term loans available to London 's illiquid money market. But might the UK authorities be considering a more "prudent" response to the credit crunch, too?
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, September 06, 2007
UK Interest Rates on Hold at 5.75% As Financial Sector Crash Continues / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Bank of England kept interest rates on hold at 5.75%, the move was widely expected as the credit crunch continued to hit the financial sector which has seen sharp drops in stock prices of financial institutions such as Northern Rock as the credit crunch increases financing costs across the sector. This was evidenced by the recent surge in the inter bank LIBOR rate which resulted in the Bank of England to provide additional liquidity.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, August 02, 2007
UK Interest Rates Expected to Stay on Hold at 5.75% Today / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Market Oracle expectations are for the Bank of England to keep interest rates on hold at 5.75% at today's MPC meeting.
Our last analysis (18th July 07) targeted the next rise to 6% to occur at the October 2007 MPC Meeting. More importantly there is increasing probability that 6% will mark a peak for UK interest rates. This is becoming clearer with each passing months economic data on the economy which show a slowing housing market and moderating inflation. Additionally, the series of financial knocks such as the ongoing liquidity squeeze sparked by the failure of Bear Stearns Hedge funds due to excessive positions in the faltering US Subprime mortgage market, are also expected to be taken into account at today's interest rate decision meeting.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, July 18, 2007
UK Inflation CPI Falls But Interest Rates Set to Rise to 6% By October 2007 / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Yesterday the 'official' measure of UK inflation the Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell from 2.5% to 2.4%, and thus trending in the right direction towards the 2% target after a scare earlier in the year when the CPI breached the upper limit of 3%, prompting the Governor of the Bank of England to write a letter to the former Chancellor Gordon Brown explaining why the Bank had failed to control inflation.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, July 17, 2007
Bank of England’s Rate Raising Cycle Is Far From Over! / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Mario_Innecco
Today we saw the O.N.S. (Office of National Statistics) release the C.P.I. and the R.P.I. for the month of June. The C.P.I. or the consumer price index came out at a 2.4% year on year rate and actually dropped from 2.5% in May but the financial markets were expecting a drop to 2.3%, while the R.P.I. or the retail price index came out at 4.4% year on year which was on the back of an expected decrease from 4.3% to 4.2%.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, July 04, 2007
UK Interest Rates To Rise to 5.75 percent as a Consequence of Excessive Expansion of Money Supply / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Bank of England is expected to raise UK interest rates tomorrow from 5.50% to 5.75%. This is inline with the Market Oracle two year forecast for UK interest rates to hit 5.75% by Sept 07.
The Money Markets are pricing in a rise in UK interest rates, with the Pound hitting a new 26 year high against the US Dollar trading towards $2.02, and the 3 month Inter bank rate rallying to a near 6 year high of 5.96%.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, July 04, 2007
Impact of Interest Rate Rise to 5.75percent on Mortgages and Savings / Personal_Finance / UK Interest Rates
By: MoneyFacts
Moneyfacts.co.uk – Base Rate Ready Reckoner : With base rate almost certain to rise a further 0.25% this Thursday, this might come in handy!
MORTGAGES
Impact of a further increase
Friday, June 15, 2007
What was it like when interest rates were last at 5.50percent? / Personal_Finance / UK Interest Rates
By: MoneyFacts
Julia Harris, Mortgage Analyst at Moneyfacts.co.uk – the money search engine, comments:“It’s over a month since base rate rose a further quarter point to 5.50% and with the last MPC decision to keep rates on hold the mortgage market is starting to show signs of settling down. But with another rise anticipated in the short term the market will just have time to come up for air before products are repriced yet again.
“So how do today’s best deals compare with when rates were last 5.50% in May 2001 and 5.75% in March 2001?
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, June 11, 2007
Bank of England Governor Warns of another Interest Rate Rise / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Bank of England governor Mervyn King again warned of higher UK interest rates due to strong economic activity and continuing inflationary pressures at a CBI Event.
In his reasoning for raising UK interest rates to 5.5% in May , he stated : "The Monetary Policy Committee will be watching closely indicators of capacity pressures, pricing intentions, and inflation expectations. If these indicators remain elevated, the MPC may need to take further action. There is no simple or self-evident answer to the question of what path of interest rates will be necessary to bring inflation back to the 2% target and keep it there."
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, June 07, 2007
Bank of England Leaves Interest Rates on Hold at 5.50pcent / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
As widely expected the Bank of England left UK interest rates on hold at 5.50%. The previous change in Bank Rate was an increase of 0.25 percentage points to 5.5% on 10 May 2007. The Market Oracle is forecasting the next rate rise to occur in August 2007 UK Interest Rates - The next rise to 5.75% to occur in...
The decision to keep rates on hold gives the bank time to evaluate new inflation data for May and June, before taking the next anticipated decision to raise rates in August or earlier if the CPI again jumps above 3%
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, June 05, 2007
UK Interest Rates - The next rise to 5.75% to occur in... / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Banks minutes and inflation report, and recent comments by the bank governer Mervyn King, all point towards to a further rise to 5.75%. The question is will interest rates rise this week ?Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, May 17, 2007
Inflation report confirms further rise in UK Interest rates to 5.75% / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
With the publication of the quarterly inflation report, Bank of England Governor Mervyn King confirmed that a further rise in interest rates to 5.75% is likely to occur later this summer, in an attempt to bring inflation back under control. He stated "The path of interest rates assumed in this projection anticipates a further rise in the bank rate,"
The inflation report confirmed that a rise in interest rates to 5.75% is required to meet the CPI target of 2% in two years time .
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, May 10, 2007
Bank of England Raises UK Interest Rates by 0.25% to 5.5% / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Sarah_Jones
As widely expected UK interest rates have been raised to 5.5% at mid-day today.
In a statement the Bank of England stated :
The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee today voted to raise the official Bank Rate paid on commercial bank reserves by 0.25 percentage points to 5.5%.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, May 09, 2007
UK Interest Rates Expected to Rise to 5.50% Tomorrow / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The rise in UK interest rates to the interim target of 5.50% is expected to occur at mid-day tomorrow. The rises in interest rates towards the Market Oracle target of 5.75% by Sept 2007 are a consequence of the Bank of England failing to control inflation.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, April 22, 2007
UK Interest Rates to Rise to 5.50% on May 10th , What's Next ? / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The money markets have now priced in a rise in interest rates to 5.50% at the May meeting of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee.
In my previous article I discussed the reasons why interest rates have been on the rise during 2007 towards the target of 5.75% (British Pound Finally Awakens to Inflation feeding Rising UK Interest Rates 18th April 07)
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, April 18, 2007
British Pound Finally Awakens to Inflation feeding Rising UK Interest Rates / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Inflation as measured by the CPI jumped above 3% to 3.1%, which now virtually guarantees a hike in UK interest rates to 5.5% at Mays Bank of England MPC Meeting. The British Pound surged through the $2.00 barrier, having flirted with it for nearly 2 years now, each attempt at a break having held, but no more !
Both the rise to 5.50% at the May meeting and the Pounds jump above $2.00 have been long forecast and expected.
The Story of 2007 has been and will continue to be of higher interest rates across the world. Not just for the UK but for most major economies. The resulting effect is already being seen in the currency markets with a selling of the US dollar especially against the Euro and Sterling.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, April 07, 2007
Currency traders hated this week's vote by the Bank of England. But UK savers will hate it more... / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Adrian_Ash
SO THE BANK of ENGLAND voted to keep Sterling interest rates on hold for another month.Ahead of the decision, the futures market had put the chances of a further baby-step increase to 5.50% at around fifty-fifty. That would have taken Sterling rates above US Dollar rates for the first time since March last year.
History says that an interest-rate premium for Sterling tends to reward currency speculators with a capital gain, as well as a positive pay-off from the carry. And so, anticipating a hike by the Old Lady, the foreign exchange market got itself increasingly long of Sterling over the last five trading sessions.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, April 05, 2007
BOE Keeps UK Interest Rates on Hold in April But likely to Rise in May / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Victoria_Marklew
As expected, the Bank of England's (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) left its policy repo rate unchanged at 5.25% this morning. However, as we've noted before (see Daily Global Commentary, March 21: UK: Rate Hike Expectations Ease but Don't Rule Out Further Tightening ), the BoE concluded in its February Inflation Report that inflation would be slightly above the 2.0% target in two years' time if the repo rate stayed at 5.25%. Given the members' concerns about underlying inflation pressures and about an increase in firms' pricing power, recent data suggest the odds still favor another rate hike in May.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, April 05, 2007
US Economy - No More Legs to Stand On / Economics / UK Interest Rates
By: Peter_Schiff
As investors and market strategists sift through every new economic tea leaf for clues about the health of the U.S. economy, I am reminded of a group of railroad engineers discussing the structural qualities of the track bed while an overloaded fright train careens around a sharp turn. For those not lost in the inconsequential minutia, a severe recession is an outright certainty, regardless of what current statistics might indicate on a day-to-day basis.
Since the bursting of the dot.com bubble, the U.S. economy has been fueled by an enormous consumer spending spree. This largess has been artificially propped up by the largest real estate bubble in U.S. history. In fact, housing has acted as a three-legged stool upon which American consumers have been precariously perched. Those legs are: 1) home equity extractions; 2) adjustable rate mortgages; 3) the wealth effect.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, March 22, 2007
UK: Interest Rate Hike Expectations Ease But Don't Rule Out Further Tightening / Economics / UK Interest Rates
By: Victoria_Marklew
The minutes of the March 8 meeting of the Bank of England's (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) have caught the markets by surprise, with an unexpectedly-dovish 8-1 vote to leave rates on hold, and the one dissenter a vote for a rate cut. The members noted that "the upside risk to inflation from wage growth might have started to diminish," and "financial market volatility added to the case for holding rates." So, can we assume that the current 5.25% repo rate is the peak? Not yet.
Yesterday came the news that the EU-harmonized rate of inflation , HICP, hit 2.8% in February, up from 2.7% in January - still far above the BoE's 2.0% medium-term target. The Retail Prices Index (RPI), the basis for most wage negotiations, climbed to a 16-year high of 4.6%.
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Thursday, January 25, 2007
Bank of England Minutes of Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decision to raise rates / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Sarah_Jones
The latest MPC minutes show that the decision to raise interest rates from 5% to 5.25% was carried by just one vote. This implies that the decision for future rises will be more balanced than what the market initially perceived after the last rate rise.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, November 07, 2006
UK Interest Rates could rise to 5.75% in 2007 / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
With this Thursdays BoE decision of a rise in interest rates to 5% a near certainty. There are clear signs that rates could carry on rising to much higher levels during 2007, due to rising inflation, fed by strong growth in the UK's Money Supply. The projection of 5.75% was first forecast by the Market Oracle in November 2005, with subsquent economic data confirming the trend in higher interest rates. Inflation as measured by CPI is currently running at 2.4% with RPI at 3.6%, well above the old cap of 3%, with little signs of abating despite the rate rises todate.
The spread between the base rate (4.75%) and RPI (3.6%), is currently at 1.3%, marginally higher than the low set in 2003 of 1.1%, which preceded a rise in interest rates from 3.5% to 4.75%. This took the spread to 2%, since that time, RPI has risen and interest rates have fallen to 4.5%. This puts the UK under similar interest rate hike pressures as during the start of the rate hikes back in 2003 and targets an interest rate rise to 5.75%.
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Sunday, October 22, 2006
UK Interest Rates Forecast to rise much higher due to rising Inflation and high Money Supply Growth / Economics / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Interest are set to to rise to 5% in November 2006, some market commentators are already seeing this as a potential peak despite REAL UK interest rates being at historic lows.
The spread between the base rate (4.75%) and RPI (3.6%), is currently at 1.3%, or marginally higher than the low set in 2003 of 1.1%, which preceded a rise in interest rates from 3.5% to 4.75%. This took the spread to 2%, since that time, RPI has risen and interest rates fell to 4.5%. This puts the UK under similar interest rate hike pressures as during the start of the rate hikes in 2003.
Tuesday, October 17, 2006
UK Inflation rises to a 8 year high of 3.6% (RPI), whilst CPI dips to 2.4% / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Sarah_Jones
UK Inflation rose strongly taking the more recognised and reflected rate of price inflation in the UK economy, RPI from 3.4% to 3.6%, despite the recent fall in crude oil prices. The goverments preferred measure dropped as expected from 2.5% to 2.4% as the price of petrol fell by 6.4 pence per litre.
The rise in RPI is further confirmation that a rate rise in November is virtually a done deal, as the decline in the CPI is temporary given the gap now developing between RPI and CPI measures of inflation.
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Thursday, October 05, 2006
BOE Keeps Interest Rates on Hold Whilst the ECB raises to 3.25% / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Phillipa_Green
The Bank of England held UK base rates at 4.75% today as expected, whilst the European Central Bank raises to 3.25%.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, September 20, 2006
Interest rates likely to rise to 5% in November 06 / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Sarah_Jones
A further rise in interest rates in November 06, looks highly likely after the Bank of England again raised fears over rising inflation. Minutes from this month's meeting of the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) showed that all eight members voted to keep the cost of borrowing on hold at 4.75%. But it also showed that the MPC thought it was right to impose the shock rise from 4.5% in August as inflation was set to stay above its 2% target "for some time". Inflation hit 2.5% in August 06, - its joint-highest level since Labour came to power and the fourth month in a row it was above 2%.
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Friday, August 11, 2006
Interest rate trend uptrend accelerates ! / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The interest rate hike by the BOE last month has accelerated the interest rate trend, pushing the 3month rate to over 4.95% ! The trend is likely to continue upwards into the next interest rate rise, probably in October or November 2006, though unlikely to occur in December due to the holiday period.
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Friday, August 04, 2006
Surprise rise in UK Interest Rates to 4.75% / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Phillipa_Green
An unexpected quarter point rise in interest rates from 4.5pc to 4.75pc rattled the stock market with retailers, exporters and builders bearing the brunt of investors' concerns.
The rise caught the financial markets off guard leading to a surge in interest rate futures to take into account the 0.25% rise.The FTSE 100 fell by by 93.7 points, or 1.6pc, to 5838.4, while the pound jumped a cent to $1.8885.
The rise is likely to impact the highly leveredged housing sector and lead to a slowdown in the coming months. And future rises are not out of the question, as the BOE tries to reign in inflation as it moves well beyond the Inflation target of 2%.
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Tuesday, March 07, 2006
Interest Rates Correction is Over / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
It is 4 months since our last analysis that suggested that the interest rate trend is likely to resume upwards, in that time interest rates have moved sideways, but now with the 3 month LIBOR rate rallying to above 4.7% that sideways trend is coming to an end and signaling a resumption of the uptrend towards our target of 5.75% ! Which would roughly equate to a base rate of at least 5.25% !, The time line for this now has to be moved forward by some 4 months and is now pointing to some time in early 2007.
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Sunday, November 13, 2005
UK Long-term Interest Rates Trend is still UP ! / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
With talk now focusing on when the next cut in interest rates will be, its time to remind readers that the MAIN trend is still definetly still up !
