Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Thursday, July 14, 2011
The Greater Economic Depression Is Upon Us / Economics / Great Depression II
By: David_Galland
The phrase “Greater Depression” was coined by Doug Casey a decade or so back as a way of describing the economic crisis he foresaw as inevitable, and which is now materializing.
Because I think it is important for every organization to constantly challenge its own assumptions, I’ve long acted as something of a devil’s advocate here at Casey Research. By constantly pushing our analysts to revisit their assumptions and calculations, it is my firm intention for us to spot the fork in the road that indicates it is time to shift strategies away from investments designed to do well in the face of a currency debasement and to something else.
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Wednesday, July 13, 2011
China Economic Marvel Continues / Economics / China Economy
By: Jenson
China declared the second quarter performance. The summary data points are presented in charts. The impression continues to be that China has maintained its high growth and there are no indications of a crash landing.
Wednesday, July 13, 2011
The Disintegrating U.S. Economic Recovery / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: John_Kozy
The word 'recover' always has the connotation of "getting back." But who is going to get back what when the economy "recovers"? Few at most. So what does an economic recovery look like? No one knows. The word 'recovery' can not be applied to objects willy-nilly. A sick person goes into the hospital to recover; a broken automobile is taken to a shop to be repaired. Automobiles do not recover. Neither do economies; they can only get better or worse, and specific information is needed to determine which. Few people realize just how close to the edge of disintegration America is. The Congress meets for one purpose and one purpose alone—to get reelected. The political posturing begins the day after each election, while the nation's problems go unaddressed, and our media aid and abet the posturing. Such is America today. This recession/depression will never "recover." Neither will America.
Wednesday, July 13, 2011
This Is Not Economic Recovery, It's the Great Correction / Economics / US Economy
By: Bill_Bonner
The fight for recovery is over. The feds have waved the white flag. Maybe…
The Labor Department came out with the latest employment numbers last week. They were atrocious. Only about a fifth as many new jobs as economists expected. Which shows you three things.
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Wednesday, July 13, 2011
April's Narrower U.S. Trade Deficit Looks to Have Been a Fluke / Economics / US Economy
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
In price-adjusted terms, the U.S. trade deficit in goods widened by almost $3.9 billion in May compared with its narrowing of $5.7 billion in April. Real U.S. exports of goods decreased 1.5% or $1.5 billion in May. Real U.S. imports of goods increased 1.6% or $2.3 billion. In April, imports contracted by $4.6 billion. This occurred in part because of the interruption in imports from Japan of motor vehicle parts. Imports of Japanese-produced motor vehicle parts rebounded in May and likely did so in June, too (see Chart 2).
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Monday, July 11, 2011
June's Abysmal U.S. Jobs Report is Just the Beginning / Economics / Employment
By: Money_Morning
Kerri Shannon writes:
The June jobs report was abysmal - bud sadly it's just the beginning.
After just a few months of modest, stimulus-induced improvement the jobs market is again sliding backwards into a "new normal" characterized by even higher rates of unemployment.
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Monday, July 11, 2011
Greek Tragedy Goes Global / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
By: Stephen_Lendman
After Greece's government surrendered to banker occupation, trends analyst Gerald Celente told Russia Today that:
America's "economy continues to decline. There's no recovery in sight." Across Europe in Greece, Britain and elsewhere, people are reacting against forced austerity to assure bankers get paid.
Monday, July 11, 2011
Main Street America's Great Depression Continues / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Stephen_Lendman
Friday's jobs report threw more cold water on so-called recovery. Since 2008, Main Street America's been in Depression.
Conditions have worsened, not improved, because of force-fed austerity, not badly needed stimulus to create jobs, reemploy people, and revive real economic growth, not the illusory kind since the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) officially declared June 2009 the end of recession.
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Monday, July 11, 2011
Staring Down China's Inflation Dragon / Economics / Inflation
By: EconMatters
China’s inflation jumped to its highest in three years with consumer price index (CPI) surging 6.4% year-over-year in June (See Chart Below). The spike has been fueled by escalating food prices despite that the central bank’s effort to tame inflation by pushing up the RRR (Reserve Requirement Ratio) for commercial banks six times this year, while raising interest rates five times since September, most recently on July 6.
Monday, July 11, 2011
Will China Economy Boom Turn into Doom? / Economics / China Economy
By: Jenson
As china chugs along non stop, it may just be that time of the year where we wait and introspect on the great juggernaut. Does the data point to any chinks in the armor? Do we see the economy crash landing with all the hikes priced in? Some of these questions will be answered as we bring some charts on the Chinese economy. Some charts have June 2011 as a data point while others only map till May 2011. As the data is released, we will update all charts to June 2011.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, July 10, 2011
Has the 120-year Inflation Deflation Cycle Bottomed Early? / Economics / US Economy
By: Clif_Droke
In light of the impressive equities market rally from 2009 through 2011, some are wondering if perhaps the economic long wave has bottomed early. I recently received an email asking a question that is relevant to our discussion. He writes, "Suppose the big 120-year cycle hit a few years early, which for a cycle this long would certainly be possible. Perhaps the March 2009 low was the deflationary 120-year cycle low point, and the bull market just carries on for several more years. Is this possible?"
Sunday, July 10, 2011
Abysmal June Employment Figures Warn of Great Depression Ahead / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Robert_McHugh_PhD
The June Jobs numbers were horrendous, just like May's were, telling us the QE2 strategy of the Fed has failed, and the Central Planners' policy to keep taxes high, and not significantly cut them or rebate them has failed. There is so much focus on making sure the rich get properly taxed that true economic stimulus is paralyzed. QE was false economic stimulus. Trillions of new dollars were printed, however there was no effective delivery system in place to move that money to households, where the real economy begins. Wall Street got the cash, bid up the price of commodities with that cash, and inflation rose. That was about it.
Sunday, July 10, 2011
What Happened to the Jobs? So How's That Stimulus Thing Working Out? / Economics / Employment
By: John_Mauldin
The US jobs report came out this morning, and it was simply dismal. This week we look at not only the jobs report but also "what-if" proffers for the US and global economies. There's a lot to cover, so let's jump in.
First, there were only 18,000 jobs created in June, the lowest since September 2010. While private employment rose by 57,000, government workers dropped by 39,000, continuing a trend as governments at all levels work to cut their budgets. Long-time readers know I think it is important to look at the direction of the revisions, and we got no help. May was revised down by 29,000 jobs and April a further down 15,000.
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Saturday, July 09, 2011
U.S. June Jobs Report, Weak Labor Market Casts Shadow on Economic Growth / Economics / Employment
By: Asha_Bangalore
Civilian Unemployment Rate: 9.2% in June vs. 9.1% in May. Cycle high for recession is 10.1% in October 2009.
Payroll Employment: +18,000 in June vs. +25,000 in May. Private sector jobs increased 57,000 after a gain of 73,000 in May.
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Saturday, July 09, 2011
U.S. Jobs Report Rains On Soft Spot Hopes! / Economics / US Economy
By: Sy_Harding
The Labor Department’s employment report on Friday pretty much took the hope out of Washington and Wall Street’s expectations that the economic slowdown in the first half of the year was just a soft spot that will quickly be replaced by strong growth in the current quarter and second half.
The economy slowed to only 1.8% growth in the 1st quarter and economic reports have been even more dismal since, to say nothing of the Fed’s QE2 stimulus program having expired at the end of June.
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Friday, July 08, 2011
U.S. Payroll Stunner, Full "Pathetic" Jobs Report Analysis / Economics / Employment
By: Mike_Shedlock
Thoughts on the Jobs Report
Last month I commented things are awful at first glance and simply bad beneath the surface. This month things took a huge turn for the worse.
Three months ago I commented "It is very questionable if this pace of jobs keeps up." Clearly it didn't, for the second straight disastrous month. Certainly this cannot all be blamed on the Tsunami in Japan. The entire global economy is slowing rapidly as I have commented numerous times.
Friday, July 08, 2011
Warren Buffett on U.S. Housing Market, Employment, Economy and Debt / Economics / US Economy
By: Bloomberg
Warren Buffett spoke with Bloomberg Television's Betty Liu for an hour this morning from the annual Allen & Co. Sun Valley Conference in Idaho. Buffett commented on today's job numbers, saying to "bet very heavily" against a double-dip recession and that employment will gain "big time" on a housing recovery.
Friday, July 08, 2011
U.S. Employment Report, Do Not Overlook Government Hiring / Economics / Employment
By: Asha_Bangalore
The ADP National Employment Report is a private sector estimate of payroll employment published two days prior to the official report of the Bureau of Labor Statistics each month and it garners a great deal of market attention although it is not official data about employment.
Thursday, July 07, 2011
U.S. Payrolls, Keeping Things In Perspective / Economics / US Economy
By: Tony_Pallotta
The calls for an economic soft patch are growing louder in the face of the ADP print today above expectations. The 13 weeks of weekly claims above 400,000 is not being dismissed simply not discussed.
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Thursday, July 07, 2011
Zombie America, How it Happened / Economics / Quantitative Easing
By: Bill_Bonner
Americans had something to celebrate this Independence Day. QE2 – the Feds’ $600 billion money-printing program – ended on Friday. And guess what? The world didn’t end with it.
Instead, the stock market gave a loud “yahoo!” The Dow rose 168 points. If QE2 is going to be the death of the US economy, the stock market doesn’t see it.
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