Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Saturday, June 18, 2011
U.S. Index of Leading Economic Indicators Suggests Mild Growth / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Asha_Bangalore
The Conference Board's Index of Leading Indicators (LEI) increased 0.8% in May after a 0.4% drop in April. The year-over-year change of the LEI in the second quarter (April-May average) moved up 5.00% after advancing 5.5% in the prior quarter. The recent peak of the year-to-year change of the LEI was 10% in the first quarter of 2010. The year-to-year change of the index since the early months of 2010 has maintained a decelerating trend, implying that only a mildly positive pace of economic growth is likely in the quarters ahead.
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Friday, June 17, 2011
More Signs That Society Is Collapsing / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Submissions
Economic Collapse writes: What we are now witnessing is the slow motion unraveling of America. Our economy is dying, the American people have lost faith in the government and in almost all of our other major institutions, and our society is collapsing. Most Americans don't understand why all of this is happening, but most of them do realize that something has fundamentally changed. Earlier this year, McDonald's held a "National Hiring Day" and a million Americans showed up to apply for jobs. Only 62,000 of them were hired. That means only 6.2% of the applicants got jobs. So what are we supposed to tell the 93.8% that didn't get hired? Are they supposed to have any hope for the future when they can't even get a minimum wage job at McDonald's? When I was a teenager, I went over to McDonald's one day, filled out an application and was instantly hired. My, how things have changed. Now we have millions upon millions of young people that are staring directly into a very bleak future. The level of frustration in this country is rising to frightening levels and large numbers of people are already showing that they will stoop to anything in order to survive.
Friday, June 17, 2011
U.S. Mixed Economic Reports, Housing Starts Moved Up, Jobless Claims Declined / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
Economic reports of the past two days present a mixed picture of underlying economic conditions. Factory production data excluding autos moved up but factory surveys - Empire State Manufacturing Survey and factory report from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia--point to a weakening of activity. The National Association of Home Builders continue to believe that the housing market is in a slump, but today's housing starts data suggest a small turnaround. Jobless claims numbers point to a small improvement, but the level of jobless claims is elevated.
Wednesday, June 15, 2011
U.S. Jobs Market is Headed for a Double-Dip / Economics / Employment
By: Money_Morning
Jason Simpkins writes: After showing some improvement over the past year, the U.S. job market is now beginning a double-dip.
The reason is simple: The number of start-up businesses has hit its lowest level since at least the early 1990s.
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Wednesday, June 15, 2011
Small Businesses Remain Pessimistic About the Near Term / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
The survey of the National Federation of Independent Business continues to show a pessimistic outlook about business conditions in the near term. The Small Business Optimism Index fell to 90.9 in May from 91.2 in the prior month. It is important to note that the index has fallen for three straight months and the level of the index has failed to move up to levels seen during an expansionary phase of a business cycle.
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Wednesday, June 15, 2011
U.S. Core Wholesale Prices to Consumer Prices Pass Through is Not Here Yet / Economics / Inflation
By: Asha_Bangalore
The Producer Price Index (PPI) of Finished Goods increased 0.2% in May, following larger gains in each of the past five months. A 1.5% jump in energy prices was offset partly by a 1.4% drop in food prices during May. The BLS indicated that energy prices accounted for a large part of the increase in the wholesale price index. Energy prices have risen for eight straight months.
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Wednesday, June 15, 2011
U.S. Weak Retail Sales Casts Shadow on Q2 Consumer Spending / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
Retail sales fell 0.1% in May, after a revised 0.3% increase in the prior month. Retail sales last declined in June 2010 led by lower gasoline prices. Auto sales dropped in May, which is consistent with the unit auto sales numbers published earlier in the month.
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Tuesday, June 14, 2011
China to Build a New Sky Scraper Every 5 Days / Economics / Infrastructure
By: Pravda
In 2011, China is to build 200 skyscrapers. The homeland of high-rise buildings - the United States of America - has 200 skyscrapers today. For the time being, the quantity of such buildings in China and in the States is identical. However, during the upcoming three years, China will take advantage of its overseas competitor. A new skyscraper will be appearing in China every five days.
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Tuesday, June 14, 2011
Prolonged U.S. Economic Slowdown Underway / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Trader_Mark
While there are many pundits and economists out there making calls, what I've observed from the Economic Cycle Research Institute over the past half dozen years or so has been quite impressive. Whatever quantitative tools they are using, they seem to be creating a very nice mosaic in terms of forecasting the future.
Tuesday, June 14, 2011
Stimulus-fueled Economic Recovery End Game / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Peter_Schiff
Economic data over the past weeks, punctuated by last week's dismal employment reports, confirm the diminishing impact of the stimulus efforts orchestrated by the Obama Administration and the Federal Reserve. In what must be a huge disappointment to Keynesian enthusiasts, the record doses of both monetary and fiscal narcotics did not produce the desired results. In fact, the size and scope of the "recovery" of the past two years was weaker than would have been expected in a typical business cycle recovery without any stimulus whatsoever. Indeed our current recovery is the weakest on record, despite the biggest jolt of government stimulus ever administered.
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Tuesday, June 14, 2011
UK CPI Inflation Holds at 4.5% as Stealth Theft of Wealth and Debt Default Continues / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
UK CPI Inflation remained at 4.5% for the month of May at more than twice the Bank of England's 2% target that continues to make a mockery of the central bank who's primary remit is supposedly price stability, where 3% is supposed to be the maximum level a break of which was supposedly to trigger panic responses to bring inflation under control, instead of which the Bank of England has instead opted to pump out temporarily high inflation propaganda for the past 18 months. Meanwhile the more recognised RPI Inflation measure nudged higher to 5.2% which is set against average pay rises of just 2%.
Tuesday, June 14, 2011
Key Economic Reports Prior to June 21-22 FOMC Meeting / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
It is widely recognized that the U.S. economy has lost momentum in the second quarter. The FOMC meeting of June 21-22 and Chairman Bernanke's press conference of June 22 will focus on this aspect. In the meanwhile, a string of economic reports are scheduled for publication prior to the FOMC meeting. Of these reports, retail sales, Consumer Price Index, industrial production, and housing starts should be the major market movers and they will have a bearing on the policy outlook presented after the close of the FOMC meeting.
Monday, June 13, 2011
Kress Cycle Economic Tsunami / Economics / Cycles Analysis
By: Clif_Droke
Forgotten in the avalanche of economic headlines in recent weeks is the fact that the housing market hit a new low. In the latest reporting month the national housing index hit a new low, falling below the previous low from April 2009. This should be prompting a nationwide debate in the press as to whether a new down leg in the housing market lies ahead. Instead, all we hear is crickets. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, June 13, 2011
The Keys to Economic Growth and New Jobs / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Dr_Ron_Paul
Recent economic data show that U.S. job growth in May was negligible, while the official unemployment figure-- at least the figure the Labor Department admits to-- rose to 9.1%. The real unemployment figure, however, as compiled by economist John Williams, may well be higher than 20%. It is clear the U.S. economy is in terrible shape, and that no amount of government spending or Federal Reserve quantitative easing can reduce unemployment, increase real productivity, or address our debt fiasco.U.S. jobs and productivity are dependent on the accumulation of private capital to finance existing businesses or fund new entrepreneurial activity. Private capital-- whether accumulated by profitable U.S. businesses, invested by private equity and venture capital firms, or attracted from abroad-- is the key to economic growth and new jobs. But we cannot create jobs if we demonize profits, punish risk-taking capitalists, and stay hostile to foreign investment.
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Sunday, June 12, 2011
Where Is The Economic Recovery? I Cannot Seem To Find It / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Tony_Pallotta
The only thing worse than being blind is having sight but no vision." - Helen Keller
Possibly the only thing worse than having a serious problem on your hands is when you clearly do not understand the problem. You ignore the data and find an easy scapegoat for why the problem is temporary and will pass. The slowdown in the US economy is not transitory as the Fed chairman states. Hopes for 3-4% GDP growth in the second half of 2011 are simply that, hope.
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Sunday, June 12, 2011
The Unemployment Conspiracy; It's the Policy, Stupid / Economics / Unemployment
By: Mike_Whitney
When the recovery began 2 years ago, the rate of unemployment was 9.5 percent. Today it's 9.1 percent. Think about that for a minute. Doesn't that prove that the market isn't really self-correcting after all? I mean, if the market was self-correcting then unemployment would have gone down by now, right? But, it hasn't. Why?Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, June 10, 2011
Greek Unemployment and GDP / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Ian_R_Campbell
The officially reported U.S. unemployment rate currently is 9.1%, and is frequently said by pundits to be at about 20% if all those Americans who have 'given up' looking for work are counted. Under any assumption the current U.S. unemployment rate is at extremely high levels by any historic standard - and everyone agrees, without really knowing where improvement is going to come from - that the reported U.S. unemployment rate needs to come down, and come down sooner than later.
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Thursday, June 09, 2011
U.S. Economy Brakes Even Before Fed Takes Its Foot Off the Accelerator / Economics / US Economy
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
In our April 28 update, we emphasized that our forecast was in “transition” from stronger to weaker in large part depending on the behavior of bank credit. This month we have made the transition to a significantly weaker outlook, not only because of the current behavior of bank credit, but also because of the current behavior of the overall economy. With regard to the latter, even before the Federal Reserve has terminated its second round of quantitative easing – that is, even before the Fed has taken its foot off the monetary accelerator – the underlying pace of U.S. economic activity already appears to be coming in weaker than we had anticipated. Consistent with our downwardly-revised real GDP growth outlook, we have revised up our forecast for the unemployment rate. In addition, we have revised down our forecast for the yield levels of the Treasury 2- and 10-year securities. (See tables at the end of this commentary containing our current and April 28 forecasts.) If we are close to the mark on our second-half GDP and unemployment rate forecasts, we could envision another round of Fed quantitative easing commencing early in 2012 with no Fed policy interest rate hikes occurring until early 2013.
Thursday, June 09, 2011
QE2 Unmitigated Failure – The Bernanke Chronicles / Economics / Quantitative Easing
By: James_Quinn
Our self proclaimed "expert" on the Great Depression, Ben Bernanke, seems to be feeling the pressure. His theories worked so well when he modeled them in his posh corner office at Princeton. He could saunter down the hallway and get his buddy Krugman to confirm his belief that the Federal Reserve was just too darn restrictive between 1929 and 1932, resulting in the first Great Depression. I wonder if there will be a future Federal Reserve Chairman, 80 years from now, studying how the worst Federal Reserve Chairman in history (not an easy feat) created the Greatest Depression that finally put an end to the Great American Military Empire. Bernanke spent half of his speech earlier this week trying to convince himself and the rest of the world that his extremist monetary policy of keeping interest rates at 0% for the last two years, printing money at an astounding rate, and purposely trying to devalue the US currency, had absolutely nothing to do with the surge in oil and food prices in the last year. Based on his scribbling since November of last year, it seems that Ben is trying to win his own Nobel Prize - for fiction.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, June 09, 2011
Greece Economic Reforms at a Standstill, Deficit is Widening, Bailout Payments on Hold / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
By: Mike_Shedlock
On May 28 Greek Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou went into a temper tantrum over an article in Der Spiegel that stated Greece missed its financial targets.
Papaconstantinou noted the report was not even out yet adding, "I have every reason to believe they will end positively for our country and that we will receive the fifth tranche."