Analysis Topic: Currency Market Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, June 03, 2008
Has the US Dollar Bottomed? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crooks writes: It's my job to analyze the markets, turn them upside down, inside out, and always consider both sides of the story.
That's the only way to make informed trading decisions, and to make sure the odds are tipped in your favor as much as possible.
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Monday, June 02, 2008
Go Away in May, Come Back and Sell Today … / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Black_Swan
We’re sure you’ve heard this before: “Sell in May and go away!” It’s the media’s cute way of explaining the relatively low interest and falling prices during the summertime. Mostly because they believe anybody who’s anybody is off sunning themselves on the beach or out at a ballgame somewhere.
Well, we’ve got a new little ditty for you: “Go Away in May, Come Back and Sell Today!”
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Saturday, May 31, 2008
Debt and Demographics to Drive Euro Back to Parity Against the US Dollar / Currencies / Euro
By: John_Mauldin
- The Problem with the Euro
- Swapping out Commodities
- The Euro at Par with the Dollar
Last week I wrote that we could see a drop in the price of oil as speculators seemed to be storing oil in very large tankers and "slow steaming" them to port in a bet that prices would rise. When everyone is on the same side of the trade, the time is right for a reversal. This is especially true when there is a large potential supply sitting on the sidelines.
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Tuesday, May 27, 2008
The Euro's Relentless Climb into Uncharted Territory / Currencies / Euro
By: Black_Swan
Pinpointing support and resistance levels in price charts usually isn’t too difficult. It simply involves finding previous points where prices bottomed out or topped out. But the task becomes a bit more difficult when there are no historical prices to target.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, May 26, 2008
Stocks and Oil Point to New US Dollar Low / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crooks writes: Just when nibbling at a dollar rally started to look safe — bam! The real world of rising risk reared its ugly head again.
Two markets that reflect risk are the stock market and crude oil. The stock market because it's the quintessential risk asset class. And crude because higher prices threaten economic growth and add to inflation expectations.
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Tuesday, May 20, 2008
Dow and the Dollar Tracking Tightly–Is US Dollar Test of Lows on the Cards? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Black_Swan
More evidence the dollar is not immune to risk. Stocks getting clobbered today for a host of reasons—choose your poison. Lately the dollar and the stock market have been moving closely together. Higher stocks equal higher dollar and vice versa. Is a test of the dollar lows in the cards? The run back into gold and continued move in commodities has the look of safe haven.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, May 19, 2008
China the Orwellian Puzzle Palace / Currencies / China Currency Yuan
By: Black_Swan
Key News - Japanese manufacturers turned pessimistic about business conditions for the first time in five years in May as high raw material prices and a U.S. slowdown eroded sentiment, a Reuters survey showed on Monday.(Reuters)
China should “disguise its ambition and hide its claws.” Attributed to Deng Xiaoping
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Sunday, May 18, 2008
How the Recession Will Impact the US Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crooks writes: Too severe, or not too severe; that is the question. I'm talking about the U.S. recession that we're already in, about to be in, or hoping to avoid.
At this point it depends a lot on how you approach the subject, but assuming for a moment that recession is inevitable, analysts and economists are asking: How much will growth contract? Can Mr. U.S. consumer muddle through, or will he stumble and fall? And how much have financial markets already discounted an official recession?
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Thursday, May 15, 2008
Australian Dollar vs. New Zealand Dollar: No Longer a One Way Bet Against the US Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Black_Swan
There’ve been a couple noticeable changes since the U.S. dollar index marked its most recent all‐time low on March 17th. Traders’ and investors’ appetite has been all mixed up.
The euro continued to rally to the $1.60 mark before falling about 5% versus the buck. It’s yet to recover. And I imagine this pair is under heavy scrutiny in determining the legitimacy of the dollar’s rally.
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Sunday, May 11, 2008
US Dollar Bottoming Against Major Currencies? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
The dollar is gripping tightly to its two-week rally even though the fundamentals have changed very little. So what's behind the market's sentiment shift?
Less-dovish rhetoric from the Fed? That could be part of it. After the FOMC meeting last Wednesday, the Fed is now expected to stop cutting rates for the foreseeable future.
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Thursday, May 08, 2008
Beware of the US Dollar's Fake Rally / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Keith_Fitz-Gerald
Don't mistake the U.S. dollar's recent rally for strength. If anything, it's a head fake of legendary proportions. In fact, the dollar's recent run-up is actually a warning that risks are escalating.
To better understand what I mean here, let's look at the greenback's recent performance against the euro. After bottoming at an all-time low of $1.6019 versus the euro on April 22, the dollar has soared nearly 4% and was trading at $1.5428 per euro early yesterday (Wednesday).
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Tuesday, May 06, 2008
Crude Oil - US Dollar Divergence / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Black_Swan
We got a fairly decent level of angst mail yesterday, in relation to the series of charts John Ross put together, suggesting maybe the market is telling us the buck has bottomed. Some of the usual conspiracy kooks and some very real and solid reasons why the buck will make new lows again were included in our email box. Thank you to all for your feedback. We always appreciate it and learn from it.
One of our readers asked the following excellent question: “[B]ut how to explain dollar/oil to the crowd following that correlation?”
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Sunday, May 04, 2008
US Dollar Long-term Cyclic Trend Analysis / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Tim_Wood
Cycles are really just another way of looking at various trends of various degrees. Also, cycles in the market are really no different than many other cycles in nature. As an example, sometimes we have an early spring and sometimes it's late. Sometimes a particular bird's migration is earlier than normal and sometimes it can be a bit later than normal. In some winters the northern states experience more snow than in other years. Sometimes we have very active hurricane seasons and sometime we don't. The same is true with cycles in the market as they too, fluctuate in duration and intensity. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, April 29, 2008
How the FOMC Interest Rate Meeting Will Impact US Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crooks writes: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets this week. As you might imagine, a lively topic of conversation this weekend among currency traders is the direction of the infamous Fed Funds rate.
The obvious question leading up to Tuesday's interest rate decision: What are the implications of this FOMC meeting on the U.S. dollar? More specifically, has the Fed Funds rate found a bottom, or does the U.S. central bank have more work to do?
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Monday, April 28, 2008
British Pound: RELATIVELY Strong … / Currencies / British Pound
By: Black_Swan
We’ve been dogging on the pound for a series of months now. And for the most part, we expect to be dogging on it for months to come. Basically, weak economic data points are going to weigh on Bank of England and their interest rate policies. That, in turn, should undermine the pound. But ...Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, April 24, 2008
“Hallelujah” for the Falling US Dollar?! / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Michael_Pento
Hallelujah, of course, is a word of praise. To use that word to describe the fact that the USD has lost 40% of its value in the last 5 years, however, is economic blasphemy. Yet last week on television I had the pleasure of debating a well known strategist on the fallout of our crumbling currency and his angelic chorus was heard praising the falling dollar because of his belief that it would boost exports, rescue the economy from recession and encourage future GDP growth. Truly, “Hallelujah for the falling dollar!” is exactly what he exclaimed.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, April 23, 2008
Gold US Dollar Trend Divergence-Trading in this Market is No Kids’ Game … / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Black_Swan
This morning, for our Currency Currents Members, we delved upon the divergence between gold and the U.S. dollar. Ultimately, we feel this relationship could prove crucial to the direction the currency market takes now and a short ways down the road.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, April 20, 2008
Elliott Wave on Crude and the US Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Dan_Stinson
Short Term Forecast Update - With a little more action in place, we have an update on the USD and Crude.US Dollar
The USD appears as an ending diagonal triangle pattern, currently in wave 4 of wave (5). The last update indicated that the USD was possibly in a (contracting) triangle but it will likely complete as an (ending diagonal) triangle.
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Wednesday, April 16, 2008
Gold Highs, US Dollar Lows Not for Long / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Mike_Paulenoff
There is a fascinating technical situation in the euro-$ vs. the pattern
exhibited by spot gold prices. All of the action in the euro from March 17
has carved out a "wedge" type of formation, with flag tops and rising lows,
which should resolve itself in one pop to the upside into new high territory
above 1.5915 prior to a powerful and nasty downside reversal.
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Monday, April 14, 2008
Currency Snapshot- Tough Luck for the Canadian Buck… / Currencies / Canadian $
By: Black_Swan
This time last year we were talking about the brilliant run the Canadian dollar was making towards dollar‐parity. Sure enough, in dramatic fashion, the Loonie crossed the $1 mark.
But for much of that historic run, the Canadian dollar traded in a tight negative correlation to the U.S. dollar – the dollar went down as the Loonie went up, or vice versa. It was in August of last year that the correlation began to fall apart. The red vertical line in the following chart marks the spot ...
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