Analysis Topic: Currency Market Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Saturday, April 12, 2008
Is a Mexican Peso Currency Correction Overdue? / Currencies / Mexico
By: Black_Swan
While perusing the latest Commitment of Traders Report, published on April 1st, we noticed that among the punters, like us, there was a 95% bullish reading i.e. 95% long open interest says players are positioned for the peso to move higher against the US dollar. This seems a fairly concentrated one-way bet. Often one-way bets lead to corrections, or intermediate-term trend changes.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, April 10, 2008
US Dollar Crunch Time / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Black_Swan
‘Dollar’ and ‘Troubles’: two words that seem to go hand‐in‐hand these days. Well, if you’re disturbed about how poorly the dollar stacks up against major world currencies, I have bad news. Things could get much worse.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, April 09, 2008
Has the US Dollar Bottomed? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crooks writes: "A bottom in the dollar? Are you kidding me?" are just two of the incredulous questions you might be asking after reading this title. All snickering aside, I do think it's time to start considering something as outlandish as that.
Despite still strong evidence to the contrary, there is compelling logic to suggest that, yes, the buck has bottomed. And if that is in fact the case, a sustained rally in the greenback would certainly present a rather lucrative proposition. Today, we'll delve into that very scenario.
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Tuesday, April 08, 2008
Jim Rogers: More Pain for the Greenback, and the Failure of the Federal Reserve / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Keith_Fitz-Gerald
SINGAPORE - By bailing out Wall Street and applying "band-aids" to the economy, the U.S. Federal Reserve may well be causing its own downfall - even as it hastens the demise of the greenback as a viable global currency, investment guru Jim Rogers told Money Morning during an exclusive interview.
Because of such strategic missteps, U.S. consumers could be facing a long and painful economic malaise, similar to the "lost decade" of 1990s Japan, or the stagflation-riddled 1970s in the United States, Rogers said.
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Saturday, April 05, 2008
US Dollar Major Bottom Forecast Within Next Two Weeks / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Marty_Chenard
This morning's update will look at two U.S. Dollar charts ... short term and long term.
The first is the weekly chart of U.S. Dollar going back to 2005. Very clearly, you can see that it has been in a down trend since 2005. Its descending channel has held steadily all the way down.
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Tuesday, March 25, 2008
What's Up with Asian Currencies? / Currencies / Asian Economies
By: Axel_Merk
With the U.S. dollar reaching new lows versus hard currencies, many are waiting for Asian currencies to catch up. Why hasn't this happened, and will it happen? The short answer is: it might, but be patient and don't bet your farm on it.
To understand Asian dynamics, let's first look at Europe. Remember how many ridiculed European growth earlier this decade? A key factor was the European Central Bank's (ECB's) refusal to jump on the growth bandwagon. As a result, consumer savings went up in Europe, while it headed down in the U.S. While the U.S. economy became increasingly dependent on credit expansion, consumer spending and inflows of money from abroad to support its current account deficit , the euro-zone was far more balanced.
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Tuesday, March 25, 2008
The Collection Agency Weekly Report- Yen Carry Trade / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Mick_Phoenix
Welcome to the Weekly Report. Firstly a big thank you for the interest in this article . From the reaction I have seen, it looks like I put into print what many were thinking. Enough hindsight, let us see what opportunities and risks face us in the coming week, or longer. We take a look at the Financials, looking for weakness and strength, wonder what the Dow has to say and have a look at gold and a few other commodities. We finish with an example of current living standards in the US , thanks to an email sent to me a couple of weeks ago.
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Sunday, March 16, 2008
US Dollar Continues to Get Clobbered by Negative Fundamentals / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crooks writes: There appears to be no end in sight for the sliding greenback. This dollar of ours is rapidly falling to depths where no dollar has gone before. In fact, to say that it's unclear when we can expect a recovery would be a gross understatement.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, March 13, 2008
Gold $1000 Sees Right Through Fed's 'Strong US Dollar Policy' / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Chris_Galakoutis
Imagine that, an entire economy built around the ability of the American consumer to borrow and spend money he can never conceivably pay back. A consumer so gorged in debt that he eventually stops making payments on his mortgage, credit cards and others debts, putting an end to the gravy train ride of the financial institutions that facilitated the funneling of credit to the now beleaguered spender.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, March 12, 2008
Central Banks Liquidity Boost Gives Temporary Lift to the US Dollar and Stocks / Currencies / Financial Markets
By: Ashraf_Laidi
Federal Reserve inaugurated its Term Auction Facility (TAF), the central bank invents a new liquidity driving mechanism calling it Term Securities Lending Facility (TSLF) through which it lends $200 billion to its primary dealers. Recall, the Fed had just extended its lending facilities to 28 days after Friday's dismal labor report. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, March 08, 2008
Three Strikes Against the U.S. Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Outside of my family, the two great loves of my life are currencies and baseball. And there are so many parallels between the two it's not even funny. Take the notion of a "rebuilding season" ...
Here in Florida, I get a chance to closely follow Major League Baseball's spring training — that magical time once a year when fans get an up-close sneak peek into the season ahead.
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Friday, March 07, 2008
Real US Interest Rates and US Dollar Index (USDX) / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Zeal_LLC
After sliding to its lowest levels in history this week, the flagging US dollar has captured the limelight. And it certainly should. The dollar is like nothing else, a critical linchpin that links every market and asset of global importance. The implications of the dollar's fall from grace are profound and universal.
It's funny, as a surprising number of mainstream analysts on CNBC in recent weeks are talking as if this dollar weakness is new. Apparently they have no historical charts. The dollar, as measured by the flagship US Dollar Index (USDX), has been in a secular bear market since July 2001 . It has lost 39.2% of its value since then.
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Sunday, March 02, 2008
US Dollar Plunges! Inflation Surges! Crunch Time for the Money Supply Pumpers! / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crooks writes: While nearly all eyes on Wall Street were riveted to the Dow's 315-point decline yesterday, the action in the U.S. dollar was even more dramatic, plunging to new all-time record lows!
But I still don't believe we've reached panic time just yet. In other words, you should be open to the dollar going even lower.
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Saturday, March 01, 2008
Like Beauty, the Value of Gold and the US Dollar Are in the Eye of the Beholder / Currencies / US Dollar
By: John_Lee
Like beauty, the value of gold and the dollar are in the eye of the beholder, which at times can be entirely subjective, arbitrary, and irrational. This is much akin to financial speculations throughout history from stamps to sea shells.
Everyone has their theory on why the US dollar is sagging – huge deficits, slowing economy, high inflation, artificially low interest rates, subprime issues etc.
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Friday, February 29, 2008
Currencies Crises- Two Days in September / Currencies / Global Financial System
By: Adrian_Ash
"...The US Dollar's hoped-for decline had now become a rout, driving the greenback down to new all-time lows on its trade-weighted index..."
Saturday, 19th Sept. 1931 - Montagu Norman – governor of the Bank of England – is sailing back to London from a vacation in Canada . He'd felt "under the harrow" since February, and one day in late July had gone home early "feeling queer".
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Thursday, February 28, 2008
Forex Currency Market Strategy EURNZD, AUDCAD, EURCAD, CADJPY, USDJPY / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: Ashraf_Laidi
The surging euro hasn't only been a case of broad dollar weakness but also of improving confidence in the Euro zone's biggest economy as the currency posted broad gains even versus the soaring Aussie, Kiwi and loonie.
Our FX Charts strategy yesterday was bullish EURGBP, EURCAD and bearish USDJPY. EURGBP pushed up from 0.7545 to 0.7616, surpassing our 0.7575 objective. EURCAD bounced off its 1.4684 low to 1.4849, exceeding our 1.4780 objective. USDJPY dropped from 107.77 to 106, reaching towards 105.98 and overshooting our 106.80 target.
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Tuesday, February 19, 2008
AUD/GBP Favourite Currency Play for 2008 Continues to Profit / Currencies / British Pound
By: Ashraf_Laidi
While central banks in most industrialized economies are either reducing interest rates or expected to do so thus year, the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to further raise its rates to fresh 12-year highs. Overnight, the RBA revealed in the minutes of its policy meeting this month a debate whether to raise rates by 50-bps. The central bank ended up raising rates by 25-bps to 7.25% to counter rising wage and price inflation. Last week, the Aussie hit multi-month highs after Australia 's unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to a 34-year low of 4.1% last month from 4.3% in Dec. Interest rate futures are now pricing an 80% probability of a 25 bps rate hike next month. Diverging interest and GDP growth rates were the backbone of our December calls for broad Aussie gains versus GBP, EUR and USD. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, February 19, 2008
US Dollar at Major Turning Point? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crooks writes: No matter how much money you've made betting against it, there comes a point when you've got to start feeling sorry for the U.S. dollar. In recent years it's become more hated than even the New York Yankees. And that's saying something!
You already know why the dollar has been suffering. Enormous trade deficits, a deteriorating real estate market, rising consumer debt, etc. All of these are contributing to the dollar's demise.
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Monday, February 11, 2008
US Dollar Strengthening as the EURO's Technical Picture is Deteriorating! / Currencies / Euro
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crooks writes: "The trend is your friend." I'm sure you've heard this market adage a thousand times before. And the wisdom behind that saying has, more often than not, proven absolutely correct. It's a lot easier to profit when you have the wind behind your sails.
When it comes to currencies, the trend has been "dollar down, euro up." For about the last five years, in fact, traders have been getting out of greenbacks and going international.
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Wednesday, February 06, 2008
Currency Market Strategy and Forecasts for February 2008 / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: Ashraf_Laidi
We expect the dollar and the yen to emerge as the broad winners in February, dragging the European and antipodean currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD) lower amid deepening signs of a slowdown in the Eurozone and the UK , and further reduction in global risk appetite. We do not anticipate the Fed to be forced into an inter-meeting rate cut this month partly due to Fed Chairman Bernanke's scheduled Congressional testimony on the economy next Thursday, which will act as the next driver of market interest rates.
Renewed sharp losses in equities will inevitably trigger speculation of an inter-meeting move, but the Fed is expected to hold off as the past 225-bps cuts have yet to take effect into the full economy. We expect another 125-bps in fed funds rate cuts for the year.
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