Category: Gold and Silver 2021
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Thursday, November 04, 2021
Global Precious Metals Market Dirty Tricks for Beginners / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: MoneyMetals
Although precious metals are still relatively under-owned and unloved, retail investors have been pouring into the metals markets since early last year.
Lots of newer investors have high hopes about where prices are headed in the near term. Even seasoned metals investors are optimistic about the current set-up for higher prices.
The difference is that seasoned investors also know they may not get what they expect.
When it comes to the metals markets, fundamentals don’t always matter in the short run. Successful bullion investing is about persevering when the market does the opposite of what you anticipate, and that happens a lot.
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Thursday, November 04, 2021
What Does November Hold for the Gold Miners? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: P_Radomski_CFA
As a new month begins, the downtrend in the GDX and GDXJ should resume. When will a new buying opportunity finally present itself?
Let’s compare the behavior of the GDX ETF and the GDXJ ETF. Regarding the former, the GDX ETF reversed sharply after reaching its 200-day moving average and a confluence of bearish indicators signaled a similar outcome. For context, I wrote on Oct. 25:
Small breakout mirrors what we witnessed during the senior miners’ downtrend in late 2020/early 2021. Moreover, when the GDX ETF’s RSI (Relative Strength Index) approached 70 (overbought conditions) back then, the highs were in (or near) and sharp reversals followed.
Furthermore, after a sharp intraday reversal materialized on Oct. 22, the about-face is similar to the major reversal that we witnessed in early August. On top of that, with the GDX ETF’s stochastic indicator also screaming overbought conditions, the senior miners are likely to move lower sooner rather than later.
Wednesday, November 03, 2021
Worried Foreign Central Banks Boost Gold Reserves / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: MoneyMetals
After sitting on the sidelines for much of last year, central bank appetite for gold has resumed, in part due to inflationary pressures globally along with disruptions in the energy market.
Russia recently reached a milestone record for its gold reserves, now ranking fifth in the world for the size of its holdings.
Russia now holds well over 20% of its reserves in gold! This represents nearly 2,300 tons of gold now held by the totalitarian nation, and that figure is likely to increase substantially in the years ahead.
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Sunday, October 31, 2021
The Bank of Canada Ends QE, Plunging Gold Prices in CAD / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
So, QE ended (so far in Canada, but the Fed will follow suit) and the termination plunged gold prices in Canadian dollars. Will this repeat globally?
Finally! Yesterday (October 27, 2021), one central bank ended its quantitative easing program after gradually reducing the pace of asset purchases earlier this year. Don’t panic though - it wasn’t the Fed, nor the ECB, nor the Bank of Japan. It was the Bank of Canada. As we can read in the monetary policy statement:
In light of the progress made in the economic recovery, the Governing Council has decided to end quantitative easing and keep its overall holdings of Government of Canada bonds roughly constant.
Friday, October 29, 2021
The History of Gold’s Pavlovian Narrative / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: The_Gold_Report
Precious metals expert Michael Ballanger delves into the Federal Reserve's actions going back decades that affect the price of gold.
One of the benefits (or luxuries) of being removed from the commuting rat-race of my earlier life is the ability to devote large swaths of free time to reading – to the acquisition of either new sources of knowledge or new frameworks of opinion, neither of which can be trusted but both of which may be useful.
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Monday, October 25, 2021
S&P 500 Stirs the Gold Pot / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: P_Radomski_CFA
With the S&P 500 back at its all-time highs, gold stopped lagging behind. However, how long can this unsustainable growth last?
The FOMO Rally
While the S&P 500 has demonstrated a resounding ability to shake off bad news, an epic divergence has developed between positioning and economic expectations. And while ‘fear of missing out’ (FOMO) keeps sentiment near the high-end of its range, Q3 DP growth is projected near the low-end of its range.
For example, while the Atlanta Fed’s third-quarter GDP growth estimate was north of 5% in early September, the bank reduced the estimate to 1.3% on Oct. 5. Moreover, with the outlook even worse now, the Atlanta Fed cut its Q3 GDP growth estimate to 0.5% on Oct. 19.
Sunday, October 24, 2021
To Be or Not to Be: How the Evergrande Crisis Can Affect Gold Price / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Evergrande is on the brink of bankruptcy. Will gold prices collapse together with the real estate developer or benefit from its default?Generals are always prepared to fight the last war, while economists are always prepared to fight the last recession. But what if the next economic crisis doesn’t start in the US financial sector, but in China’s real estate?
Naturally, I refer to Evergrande, a Chinese developer with total liabilities of more than $300 billion — around 2% of China’s GDP! A default of one of China’s largest and most indebted companies could entail significant repercussions for the global economy.
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Saturday, October 23, 2021
Gold calmly continues cobbling its Handle, Miners lay in wait / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Gary_Tanashian
You see, there is all this noise out there. It comes mostly from inflationists touting gold in the same breath as copper, as oil, and as commodities of all flavors (and aside from gold and to a degree, silver, those flavors are cyclical).
But you also see, gold is counter-cyclical in its best suit. You see on this monthly chart that gold has been forming its Handle to the bullish Cup ever since the inflation trades came to the fore in the summer of 2020. Therefore, you see that those touting gold and inflation together have been wrong for over a year now (and counting).
For those dealing in reality instead of dogma, gold is a candidate to break the Handle at any time. Then it would be off to the target at 3000+ over the course of a year or more. But reality holds another option as well, and that is to finish the Handle making lower.
So why not tune out the perma-pompoms in real time, realize that the thing is bullish, but the trigger is either coming sooner or later? We are doing that more focused work in NFTRH and associated updates every week and will be on the spot when the proper signals engage.
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Friday, October 22, 2021
Extreme Ratios Point to Gold and Silver Price Readjustments / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: MoneyMetals
Kicking the can down the road is the new national pastime. Every time the government’s bills come due, officials at the Treasury Department find creative ways of paying them with money they don’t have.
One measure of just how overextended the United States has become financially is the debt to GDP ratio. For most of the country’s history, excluding temporary wartime blips, net general government debt tended to be less than 50% of the economy.
As recently as the early 1970s, debt as a percentage of GDP came in at under 25%. By the early 1980s, it grew to over 30% and fiscal hawks became concerned. In the 1990s, it climbed to over 40% and concern started morphing into alarm.
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Thursday, October 21, 2021
Inflation Advances, and So Does Gold — Except That It Doesn’t / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Inflation accelerated again in September, and gold prices (finally!) reacted positively. Bad news: the rally was short-lived.Unfortunately, I was right. One month ago, when commenting on the CPI readings for August, I wrote that inflation “doesn’t have to go away anytime soon” and that the economic developments suggest that “inflation isn’t disappearing just yet.” And here we are, one month later, with inflation accelerating again.
Indeed, the latest BLS report on inflation shows that the CPI rose 0.4% in September after increasing 0.3% in August. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, also accelerated to 0.2% in September from 0.1% in the preceding month.
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Wednesday, October 20, 2021
Gold Price Slowly Going Nowhere / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Kelsey_Williams
“Gold going nowhere” seems to be a reasonable description of recent price action in the metals markets.
Below is a daily chart of GLD for the past year…
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Monday, October 18, 2021
Gold Stocks Bouncing Hard / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Zeal_LLC
The battered gold stocks are bouncing hard, blasting higher over the past couple weeks! That’s despite the Fed still looking to soon start slowing the pace of its epic money printing. Fed-tightening fears had weighted heavily on the precious-metals realm since June. Gold stocks’ sharp rally confirms they have started mean reverting much higher after withering capitulation selling, portending massive gains coming.
As a professional speculator and newsletter guy for over two decades now, herd sentiment never ceases to amaze me. The vast majority of traders have no perspective, just a what-have-you-done-for-me-lately mentality on the markets. That foolish self-imposed myopia greatly limits their gains, all but guaranteeing they will fail to buy low then sell high. Succumbing to popular greed and fear usually leads to the opposite.
The leading gold-stock benchmark and trading vehicle remains the GDX VanEck Gold Miners ETF. Its price trends reflect prevailing gold-stock psychology. Between mid-May to late September, the major gold stocks per GDX dropped 27.1% in 4.4 months. Nearly all those demoralizing losses accrued across just several brief episodes. And they were all triggered by heavy gold-futures selling on Fed-tightening fears.
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Monday, October 18, 2021
Beware, Gold Bulls — That’s the Beginning of the End / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Strong words, I know. Can I back them up? Well, what we see now – looking at various markets – does indeed look like the start of gold’s end
– The Oracle in Matrix Revolutions, 2003
The counter-trend rally has probably just ended, and the final big downswing has probably just started. This “beginning” of the final downswing is, in my opinion, the beginning of the final part of the prolonged sideways trend in gold that started in 2011. In the case of silver and mining stocks, that’s likely the final part of the decline that started back then.
These are strong words – I know. Let’s see if I can back them up.
First of all, I’ve been writing about the analogy between 2013 and now for many weeks now, and you can read about these analogies in this week’s flagship analysis. This key link remains intact. The charts given below confirm that from the short-term point of view.
Monday, October 18, 2021
Gold Price Flag Suggests A Big Rally May Start Soon / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
As precious metals traders have waited out this extended sideways/downward price contraction in price over the past 14+ months, a very broad Pennant/Flag price formation is nearing an APEX level which suggests Gold may begin a new rally phase over the next 60+ days. Support near $1675 is a critical price level that has been tested three times over the past 8 months. The true APEX of the Pennant/Flag price formation will be reached near November 15, 2021 – nearly 30 days before the US Debt Ceiling issue will become another big issue in Washington DC.
Gold Price Flag Initiated After The $1675 Level Based In March 2021
Let’s start with this Gold Daily Chart. I’ve drawn an upper line from the peak price level, in August 2020, across the recent highs in June 2021. Additionally, I’ve drawn a lower line from the lows near September 2020 across a series of price levels that are acting as support. These two major price channels have converged into a Pennant/Flag type of price formation recently.
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Sunday, October 17, 2021
The Gold Price And Inflation / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Kelsey_Williams
An understanding of the relationship between between the gold price and inflation requires historical observation and factual understanding. Below are three specific statements that are rooted in historical fact…
1) GOLD IS REAL MONEY
Lots of things have been used as money during five thousand years of recorded history. Only gold has stood the test of time. It has earned its role as real money because it is the only thing which meets the three specific criteria for money: a measure of value, a medium of exchange, and a store of value.
Gold is and has been easily incorporated into recognizable forms and amounts for use within various standards of weight and measure. Also, gold is scarce, malleable, indestructible and beautiful.
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Tuesday, October 12, 2021
Crimex Silver: Murder Most Foul / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: The_Gold_Report
Precious metals expert Michael Ballanger decries last week's manipulations in the silver market. Anyone schooled in the Canadian educational system in the 1960s is by default familiar with William Shakespeare’s famous play Hamlet about a Danish prince that seeks revenge upon his uncle who was believed to have murdered his father to seize the Danish throne. As students forced to utilize a learning method called “rote,” we had to memorize literally the entire scene where the ghost of the murdered king utters those immortal words “Murder most foul.” Claimed to be the “most-filmed” of all literary works, Hamlet was also the genesis of Bob Dylan’s 17-minute-long ballad whose topic was JFK’s assassination in Dallas in November 1963, an event virtually every baby-boomer remembers vividly.
"Last Wednesday, traders watched an aberration, a deformity in the principles of “best price possible.”
They should also add September 29, 2021, to the list of notable murders because the victim this time was the integrity of the Comex trading arena (or “theater” in honor of Willie Shakespeare). To an even greater degree, it marked the final death of any respect or reverence for the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CTFC) because between the Crimex “exchange” and the CFTC, the rare remaining believers in free-market capitalism were led to slaughter by a mob of hedge funds that decided to take full and blatant advantage of the lack of regulatory oversight in order to pad their bonus pools the second-to-last trading day of the third quarter of 2021.
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Sunday, October 10, 2021
Gold Price Outlook: The Inflation Chasm Between Europe and the US / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: P_Radomski_CFA
With inflation more than two times lower in Europe than in the US, the divergence between the economic zones deepens day by day. How might it impact gold?
QE Infinity
While I’ve warned on several occasions that the Fed and the ECB are worlds apart, the latter now wants to provide more QE once it concludes QE. To explain, with the ECB’s PEPP program set to expire at the end of March 2022, the central bank is increasingly worried about a bond market sell-off. And with sluggish Eurozone growth, exorbitant sovereign debt and a lack of fiscal impulse increasing the ECB’s anxiety, officials are studying “alternatives” to suppress interest rates in the Eurozone’s most debt-ridden countries.
Friday, October 08, 2021
Gold and Silver: Your Financial Main Battle Tanks / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: MoneyMetals
Armored vehicle-enabled soldiers and the designers who build them understand that a main battle tank must balance three critical elements in order to "complete the mission."
This has been true conceptually since the time of David and Goliath, the Three Hundred Spartans at Thermopylae, with Alexander the Greats' elite Silver Shields, and tank battles in four Israeli wars.
As an analogy for those who acquire and hold precious metals, it offers a close fit to their own ability to "complete the financial mission" of asset protection and growth.
First, a main battle tank must have superior firepower, being able to reliably counter and defeat its adversaries on the field of battle.
Thursday, October 07, 2021
Gold: Evergrande Investors' Savior / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: The_Gold_Report
Sector expert Michael Ballanger links debt and wolf packs in this exploration of the effects that the troubled Chinese company will have on gold.
When I first launched the GGMA Advisoryservice in January 2020, the very first Forecast Issue dealt with the globe's number one ailment, and it was not then, and is not today, related to mankind's physical health but rather its financial health. The word that kept resonating throughout that issue was debt.
If the global financial system was a human body, debt would be the fatty tissue that surrounds and clogs our organs, while recessions would be the fasting that rids the body of type 2 diabetes, obesity and depression. The problem that I identified as early as 2008 was that those that would manage our lives (whether elected or unelected) carry a belief system that holds that the best cure for obesity is a bowl of chicken noodle soup followed by six Big Macs and a big slice of apple pie.
"Debt default in tough times is the economic wolf pack that culls the economy of inefficient businesses and excesses."
In other words, it has been debt that has caused the past two major financial upheavals, and both involved the unprecedented creation of mind-boggling amounts of debt in order to avoid the natural cleansing of debt that occurs during economic downturns.
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Wednesday, October 06, 2021
Precious Metals Complex Searching for a Bottom / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Rambus_Chartology
Lets start with the BPGDM, Gold miners bullish percent chart which has just made a lower low along with the GDX on top. If you recall I was looking for some kind of divergence between the 2 which hasn’t happened yet red arrows on right side of the chart. There is no doubt that the BPGDM is trading down toward the low end of its range between 100 on top and zero on the bottom. It would be nice to see the GDX on top trade back above the 2016 horizontal S&R line at 30.50.
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