Category: Stock Markets 2019
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Monday, June 10, 2019
Stock Market Higher To Go? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – Final long-term phase on the way? How much longer, is the question.
Intermediate trend – The anticipated intermediate-term correction has started. C-wave in process.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, June 08, 2019
Stock Market Crash Averted - For Now / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Avi_Gilburt
In my last article, I outlined how the same news event can “cause” the market to rally 9% at one time, and drop 5% another time. And, then I noted how I am quite certain there will be some of you that will try to explain away this clear lack of consistency with some form of convoluted “logic.”
And, true to form, some of you did. One such commenter noted:
For about eight months, the market stupidly rose in spite of the China trade war because it was in denial. . . I said, the market would fall. The longer the denial continued and the more the market rose, the harder it would fall when it FINALLY realized that China is NOT going to capitulate.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, June 07, 2019
Fear Drives Stock Market Expectations / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The continued upside price move in Gold is a very clear sign that fear is starting to enter the global markets again. We read an article last night that suggested many professional fund managers are preparing for a bigger downside price move as well as expecting the US Fed to potentially decreased interest rates over the next 12 to 24 months as the expected downside price move takes place. We understand this concern by many industry professionals and share some of their same concerns, yet we believe these individual are far too early in shifting their stance in the markets right now.
As you may be aware, our research does not show any major downside risks until later in July 2019 or August 2019. Even then, the price of the Dow Jones Index would have to fall over 18% before the December 2018 lows become threatened. The current upside price recovery, with the Dow Jones up over 400 pts from the lows on Monday, June 3, suggests the US market and the Capital Shift that has been taking place over the past 24+ months is still rather strong with investor buying dips. We told our followers this bounce was about to happen the day before it bottomed here.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, June 05, 2019
Recession Probabilities Continue to Increase: What’s Next for Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
The stock market rallied above its 200 day moving average today along with Fed-related news. Today’s headlines:
- The New York Fed’s Recession Probability Model continues to increase
- Today’s spike saw relatively low volume
- Stocks spiked, but VIX didn’t fall significantly today
- 30 year – 2 year Treasury yield is steepening
- PMI and the S&P are both falling
- Zahorchak Method isn’t falling
Wednesday, June 05, 2019
Enjoy The Stock Market Bounce… In Two Weeks Things Get Nasty / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Graham_Summers
Stocks bounced yesterday because:
1) They were oversold.
2) The markets were at critical support and were due for a bounce (blue line).
3) Fed officials offered to cut rates if needed to “sustain the expansion.”
4) Funds were forced to cover their shorts as stocks caught a bid.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, June 04, 2019
Stock Market Second Half of 2019 – Expect The Unexpected / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
We believe the current price rotation is just the beginning of something much bigger. Over the past 16+ months, we’ve been calling these tops and bottoms many months in advance. In February/March 2018, we called the bottom and initiated a call that the US stock market would rally to establish new all-time highs. Very few believed us at that time, but the markets did exactly what we predicted. In September 2018, we called for the markets to experience weakness, pause after a quick downturn, then establish an “ultimate bottom” near November 2018 before rallying back to near all-time highs again. At that time, everyone was betting the new market crash had taken over Wall Street and we were really the only ones suggesting the US stock market would rally back from the December 2018 lows. Guess what happened? The markets did exactly what we predicted and went on to hit new highs months later.
Monday, June 03, 2019
Stock Market Technical Data Points Snowballing Into The Abyss? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Submissions
Or Is This The Time To Relax Or Take Action?
There is so much to write about I could fill five pages and still receive an Incomplete. I know myself would not read five page, but here goes and will try to make it brief. IMO there is a sense of urgency snowballing since early May. The Russell 2000 broke out of a well defined base on May 3rd and I thought the final leg of our decade long Bull Market was underway through the fall. Two trading days later President Donald tweets China has reneged on several agreed upon aspects of the negotiations. The market reversed swiftly and significantly. All breakouts failed, a very bad sign and it only gets worse.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, June 03, 2019
Stock Market Correction Extends, Gold Breaking out? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – Final long-term phase on the way? How much longer, is the question.
Intermediate trend – The anticipated intermediate-term correction has started. C-wave likely.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, June 02, 2019
Did the Stock Market Just Make the Mother of All Bull Traps? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
The S&P is now down -6.5% from its all-time high, after making a marginal new high vs. its September 2018. On the charts, this “looks like” a bull trap. Is it really? Today’s headlines:
- Examining the “bull trap”
- Collapsing Treasury yields, and what this means for stocks
- SKEW’s decline
- Dow has fallen 6 weeks in a row
- Copper and stocks both down 4 weeks in a row
- First monthly decline after a 4 month rally
- Emerging markets outperforming the U.S.
Friday, May 31, 2019
The Stocks Bull Market is Over… Now Comes the Bloodbath / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Graham_Summers
The markets are a sea of red this morning…
I’ve been warning for weeks that a collapse was coming… and now it is here.
The markets have finally woken up to the fact that the US and China will NOT be reaching a trade deal… and that the global economy is contracting.
Stocks have taken out critical support (red line). The next stop will be in the lower 2,700s (blue line).
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, May 29, 2019
Stocks Break Downward In Afternoon Trading / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The afternoon price breakdown in the YM (Down Futures) continues to confirm our recent analysis. We authored a three-part research post near mid-May discussing how the global tensions would likely play out in the global stock markets. We also authored another, more recent, research post about how the US stock markets would likely find weakness as news is digested after the US Memorial Day holiday weekend. If we go far enough back in our research, we can find a very interesting research post from March 31, 2019, where our research team suggested July 2019 would be a key date for a potential market top formation.
Today, we are going to focus on the downside price rotation that is happening in the YM (Dow Futures) and how it points to an extended sideways Pennant/Flag price formation over the next few weeks before a breakdown move may cause havoc in the markets.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, May 28, 2019
Stock Market Sell In May and Go Away / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Plunger
In this report we will look at the state of the stock market and update the condition of a potential bottom in the gold space.
Sell in May and Go Away
You have all heard this Wall Street ditty before and it is now upon us at this moment. Despite this old market rule being an established truism, few actually use it to make money. Instead the daily market action draws investors back into the market typically in search of that illusory “Summer Rally”. Instead they typically find themselves in the stock market’s “Summer Doldrums”. I can’t quote the exact statistics, however if one was to simply sell in May and stay out of the market until the typical October weakness, then go back in whole hog his returns would greatly outpace the returns of the market itself. So the sell in May phenomenon is real. Let’s try to use it to our advantage.
Time to Start Sharpening our Knives
This means it’s time to begin shorting the market… selectively that is. I have shown in the past that shorting is most profitable if one holds off until the second half of a bear market. That’s because the market starts providing decent follow through on the downside. We are not there yet since it’s still early on in phase I of the bear market, however selective shorts can be taken when a set-up presents itself. Later on in this report I will present a few short sale set-ups.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, May 27, 2019
Is the Stock Market Making a Long Term Top? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
The stock market has been choppy over the past 3 weeks, with trade-related sectors and markets much worse-off than the overall U.S. stock market. From a longer term perspective, the U.S. stock market has gone nowhere since 2018. This begs the question “is the market making a long term top??
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, May 27, 2019
Stock Market Rally Over – Downtrend Resumes / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – Final long-term phase on the way? How much longer, is the question.
Intermediate trend – The anticipated intermediate-term correction has started. Can’t tell yet if it’s a C-wave or something less.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, May 27, 2019
Stock Market Crash Warning - The Trap Door Has Opened / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Avi_Gilburt
I love reading about all the good news in the market. This past week, we saw U.S. jobless claims dip to 211,000, and they are now near half-century lows. We also saw U.S. consumer sentiment reach a 15-year high. So, what could go wrong?
Well, as Professor Hernan Cortes Douglas, former Luksic Scholar at Harvard University, former Deputy Research Administrator at the World Bank, and former Senior Economist at the IMF, noted:
. . . financial markets never collapse when things look bad. In fact, quite the contrary is true. Before contractions begin, macroeconomic flows always look fine. That is why the vast majority of economists always proclaim the economy to be in excellent health just before it swoons.
Moreover, the fact that consumer sentiment is hitting major highs is often a warning to the financial markets.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, May 21, 2019
Trade War Fears Again, Will Stocks Resume the Downtrend? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Paul_Rejczak
Stocks retraced some of their short-term rebound on Friday, as investors’ sentiment worsened once again. The S&P 500 index bounced off the nearest important resistance level of around 2,890-2,900. Will stocks resume their downtrend?
The U.S. stock market indexes lost 0.4-1.0% on Friday, retracing some of their recent advance, as investors’ sentiment worsened again. On Monday a week ago the S&P 500 index fell the lowest since late March, and it got very close to the 2,800 mark (daily low at 2,801.43). Then it rebounded to the resistance level of around 2,890-2,900. It currently trades 3.2% below its May the 1st record high of 2,954.13. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.4% and the Nasdaq Composite lost 1.0% on Friday.
The nearest important resistance level of the S&P 500 index remains at 2,880-2,900, marked by the previous support level. The resistance level is also at 2,920-2,930. On the other hand, the support level is at 2,850. The support level is also at around 2,800-2,820, marked by the recent local lows.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, May 20, 2019
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2019 May Update - Video / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2019 May Update - My in-depth analysis first made avilable to patrons who support my work on the of 1st March 2019 Stock Market Trend Forecast March to September 2019 concluded in the trend forecast for the Dow to achieve at least 28,000 by Mid September 2019.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, May 19, 2019
Stock Market Counter-trend Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – Final long-term phase on the way? How much longer, is the question.
Intermediate trend – The anticipated intermediate-term correction has started. Can’t tell yet if it’s a C-wave or something less.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, May 19, 2019
Will Stock Market “Sell in May, Go Away” Lead to a Correction… or a Crash? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Graham_Summers
The markets are now within spitting distance of a top.
Our target for the bounce is anywhere in the red box… stocks will likely enter that range today as Wall Street engages in its usual options expiration games. The perfect top would be a backtest of the former rally’s trendline (red line), but in investing things are rarely perfect.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, May 19, 2019
US vs. Global Stocks Sector Rotation – What Next? Part 1 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our research team, at www.TheTechnicalTraders.com, have been pouring over the charts and data to identify what is likely to happen over the next 60+ days in terms of global stock market volatility vs. the US stock market expectations. Recently, we posted a research article highlighting our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling system on the Transportation Index (https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/markets-rally-hard-is-the-volatility-move-over/). This research suggests we are still going to experience increased price volatility over the next 30 to 60+ days and that price rotation may become somewhat of a normal expectation throughout the rest of 2019.
We believe the key to understanding price volatility over the next 30+ days lies in understanding the potential causes of uncertainty and capital shifts that are taking place around the globe.
Next week, On May 23~26, 2019, the European Elections take place (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/0/european-elections-2019-uk-vote-date-results/). This voting encompasses all 26 EU nations where all 753 European Parliament seats may come into question. The biggest issues are BREXIT and continue EU leadership and economic opportunities for members. The contentious pre and post-election rancor could drive wild price swings in the global markets over the next 10+ days.
Read full article... Read full article...