Category: Stock Markets 2019
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Friday, January 03, 2020
Stock Market Trend Forecasts Review 2019 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Stocks bull market is on course to end 2019, it's 11th year up by 24% with the Dow's last close of 28,462 against 23,062 of 31st Dec 2018. This the first of a series of videos that concludes in my forecast expectations for the stock market into the end of 2020.
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Monday, December 30, 2019
Stock Market Review / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – There are no signs that the bull market is over.
Intermediate trend – Most likely near an intermediate top.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Monday, December 30, 2019
Don’t Fall for This Deadly Dividend Trap / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Robert_Ross
When’s the last time you bought Kraft Mac & Cheese?I imagine it’s been a while.
Thirty years ago, every cupboard in America had a box. But consumer trends have shifted. People don’t want hyper-processed foods like Kraft Mac & Cheese anymore.
Warren Buffett, one of the greatest investors of all time, must have overlooked this when he bought a 27% stake in Kraft Heinz (KHC) in 2015.
Not long after, Kraft’s sales flatlined. Earnings rose slightly, but this came from cutting costs, not growing sales.
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Monday, December 30, 2019
Fed’s Fake Stock Markets / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Zeal_LLC
The US stock markets soared in 2019, blasting to dozens of new all-time-record highs. Euphoric traders attributed these massive gains to strong corporate fundamentals and US-China trade-war progress. But the real driver of stocks’ astounding ascent was the Federal Reserve’s epic extreme easing. A panicking Fed pulled out all the stops to goose and levitate stocks, leaving fake artificially-inflated markets in its wake.
This year’s huge stock-market rally delighted nearly everyone, generating widespread euphoria. That made Americans feel wealthier, leading them to spend more freely. That pushed corporate sales and profits higher than they otherwise would’ve been. Speculators and investors loved the easy largely-one-sided gains. And stocks’ biggest fan, Trump, reveled in what lofty record stock markets implied about his policies.
With the flagship US S&P 500 stock index (SPX) rocketing up an amazing 28.6% year-to-date at best by late December, everything looked awesome. Record-high stock markets must mean the US economy is booming, the best of times. But under that happy-headline facade, the real stock-market picture is deeply troubling. The SPX’s monster gains have been directly driven by an American central bank terrified of a recession.
Some background context is necessary to understand 2019’s stunning stock-market action. Back in late 2008, the US stock markets were slammed by the first true panic in 101 years. The SPX plummeted 30.0% in a single month, which proved part of a larger 56.8% bear. That threatened a severe recession if not an outright depression due to stock markets’ powerful wealth effect. The Fed rushed to mitigate those risks.
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Friday, December 27, 2019
Stock Market Festivus / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Gary_Tanashian
They say that Festivus is the “anti-Christmas”, but in this case we are going to call it the anti-Christmas Eve as the markets close out 2019’s Christmas Eve massacre.
“Many Christmases ago I went to buy a doll for my son. I reached for the last one they had, but so did another man. As I rained blows upon him I realized there had to be another way!”
This year markets are going another way.
We have been managing a potential Christmas Eve close-out sale in the stock market since SPX hopped the Bull Turnstile, negating topping potential and confirming bullish ascending triangles (not shown below as they appeared on daily charts) and its own major trends by breaking upward. Here is the most recent chart (from NFTRH 582) used to illustrate the situation.
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Monday, December 23, 2019
Stock Market Trend Review / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – There are no signs that the bull market is over.
Intermediate trend – Most likely near an intermediate top.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Tuesday, December 17, 2019
Standing Ovation For the Stock Market Bull Train / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Ricky_Wen
The second week of December played out in a picture-perfect manner offering little to no surprises per our expectations. If you recall, this setup was fully assisted by the ongoing bull train/trend and the first week of December daily 20EMA "stick-save" setup where everybody and their mother had opportunities to load up for dirt cheap per our KISS Report discussions. In essence, last week played out as the usual daily 8EMA acceleration and the market was guns blazing into the 3193.75 multi-month measured move target on the Emini S&P 500 (ES) that most market participants that were biased would discount. Well, here we are as expected, the market is now heading into Christmas/year end closing print with ES/SPY being up about +27% for YTD with a lot of traders just in an autopilot mode as it’s been a spectacular year.
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Tuesday, December 17, 2019
Current Stock Market Rally Similarities To 1999 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Euphoria is a type of market rally where valuations, real market expectations, and global market concerns are pushed away from view while a trader based rush to rally takes place. One of the clearest examples is the 1995 to 2000 DOT COM US stock market rally. As the Internet burst into homes and businesses across the world, the US-led the way with dozens of new Internet-based IPOs touting glorious expectations, potential earnings and more. Everyone had the idea this new medium would dramatically change the economy for the better and breakthrough traditional economic boundaries.
The rally that took place in 1995 through 2000 was incredible. The S&P 500 rallied from 463 to 1535 – +235.57%. What we find interesting is the “price wave formation” that took place within that rally. There were a number of key price rotations that took place as the market continued to rally, we’ve labeled them A, B, and C. The first rotation, A, took place in July~Dec 1997. The second, B, took place from May 1998 to November 1998. The last, C, took place between January 1999 and November 1999. Technically, these rotations are significant because they represent “true price exploration” related to price advancement. The price must always attempt to identify true support/resistance levels while trending.
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Monday, December 16, 2019
Stock Market Market Review / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – There are no signs that the bull market is over.
Intermediate trend – Most likely approaching an intermediate top.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Tuesday, December 03, 2019
Is The Current Stock Market Rally A True Valuation Rally or Euphoria? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our research team has been warning that the US stock market price rally over the past few months has been more of a zombie-land price rally than a true valuation rally. Our researchers believe the continued push higher has been more about capital seeking safety away from foreign risk and into US Dollar based assets than it has been about anything fundamental or valuation based. Over the past few days, our researchers identified another rally like this that happened recently and wanted to highlight the eventual outcome of this type of Zombie-Rally. Before you continue, take a couple of seconds and join our free trend signals email list.
Zombie-Rallies happen in the market when there are really no other alternatives but to “keep doing what seems to have been successful over the past few months or years”. A good example of this is the DOT COM rally that continued to push higher and higher even though investors and traders could clearly see the wheels were coming off the train and companies were not able to achieve profits to measure up to proper valuations. This is a measure of GREED becoming a driving force behind investor sentiment. Who’s going to go against the markets when the trend bias is continuing to push higher and the risks of shorting far outweigh the risks associated with following the herd.
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Monday, December 02, 2019
Stock Market Liquidity & Volume Diminish – What Next? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
As the Thanksgiving holiday passes, traders should begin to understand that liquidity and volume in the US and global markets typically begin to diminish over the next 30 to 45+ days. Typically, between mid-November and early January, trading volumes weaken dramatically as institutional and retail investors move away from the markets in preparation for year-end celebrations and tax planning.
Historically, the month of November is vastly more positive than negative in terms of overall price action. Over the past 21 years in the NQ, a total of 15 months have resulted in an average of +122.75 pts whereas only 6 months have resulted in an average of -194.83 pts. This suggests the downside price moves, when they happen, are nearly 40% larger than the average upside price move for November. So far for 2019, the NQ is +320.25 pts for November 2019.
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Sunday, December 01, 2019
Stock Market Where Are We? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – There are no clear signs that the bull market is over.
Intermediate trend – Most likely building an intermediate top.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Thursday, November 28, 2019
Stock Market 100% Measured Moves May Signal A Top / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
One type of Fibonacci price structure we use to attempt to measure price trends and identify potential tops/bottoms is the “100% Measured Move” structure. This is a price structure where a previous price move is almost perfectly replicated in a subsequent price trend after a brief period of retracement or price correction. These types of patterns happen all the time in various forms across multitudes of symbols to create very solid trading signals for those that are capable of identifying trends and opportunities using this technique. If you want my daily analysis and trade ideas, be sure to get my updates by joining my free trend signals email list.
The first thing we look for is a strong price trend or the initially confirmed reversal of a price trend. We find that these trending price ranges and initial “impulse trends” tend to prompt 100% measured moves fairly accurately. The explosive middle-trend is where one can’t assume any type of Fibonacci 100% measured move will happen. Those explosive moves in a trend that tend to happen in the middle of a price trend are what we call the “expansion wave” of a trend and will typically be 160% or more the size of the initial impulse trend.
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Wednesday, November 27, 2019
Stock Market Range-Bound Into The End Of 2019? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Two of our favorite charts for following the US markets are suggesting the markets are range bound headed into the end of 2019. The news may continue to push the price higher as the overall bias has continued to be to the upside. Yet, our Fibonacci predictive modeling system is suggesting the current price trend has begun a “scouting party” type of move which may end in a moderate price correction fairly quickly.
Monday, November 25, 2019
Stock Market Topping Behavior / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – There are no clear signs that the bull market is over.
Intermediate trend – Most likely building an intermediate top.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Friday, November 22, 2019
Adaptive Predictive Modeling Suggests Stock Market Weakness Into 2020 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling system is suggesting the Transportation Index will fall to levels near $10,000 over the next 2 to 3 weeks which would indicate moderate price weakness in the US stock market and the global stock market.
Our ADL predictive modeling system attempts to model future price activity by finding and mapping critical price and technical elements within the historical price action. In a way, this is like mapping the future by attempting to learn from the past. You can get all of my trade ideas by opting into my free market trend signals newsletter.
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Wednesday, November 20, 2019
Why Record-High Stock Prices Mean You Should Buy More / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Stephen_McBride
Nobody wants to be the schmuck who bought stocks at the tippy-top.
Did you check your 401(k) this week? If so, you surely noticed US stocks hit new all-time highs. And the S&P 500 is now on track for its best year since 1996.
How does this make you feel in your gut? Are you happy stocks are achieving new highs? Or does it scare you... tempt you to sell all your stocks… and run for cover?
Tuesday, November 19, 2019
Trade News Still Relevant? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – There are no clear signs that the bull market is over.
Intermediate trend – Most likely building an intermediate top.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Monday, November 11, 2019
If You Want Trump Out, You Need To Sell Your Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Avi_Gilburt
While reading of the title of this article may cause you to make certain assumptions about what you are about to read, I can assure you that this is not a politically motivated article. In fact, politics has absolutely nothing to do with the analysis and conclusions presented herein.
I want to start with the assumption that we have spoken about so often, and that it is social mood which directs our actions in life, including our willingness to buy stocks. As Robert Prechter noted in a study he published in 2012 on this topic, “[s]ocionomic theory proposes that unconscious social mood regulates social actions.
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Monday, November 11, 2019
Welcome to the Zombie-land Of Stock Market Investing / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
This current market environment is very reminiscent of the 2006-08 market environment where price rotated into weakness on technicals and continued to establish new all-time price highs in the process – creating what we are calling a “zombie-land melt-up”. This very dangerous price action is indicative of money chasing a falling trend. Where technicals and fundamentals are suggesting that price is actually weakening quite substantial, yet the process of price exploration is continually biased towards the upside as investors continue to pile onto the back of the beast expecting a further melt-up.
Let’s take a look at what happened to the ES and Gold in 2006 and 2007. But, wait before you continue reading make sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals newsletter.
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