Category: US Economy
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Thursday, July 15, 2010
Census Bureau Reports Fictional Hogwash About Retail Sales / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
Today the Census Bureau posted its Advance Monthly Retail Sales and Food Services Report for June 2010.
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Monday, July 12, 2010
Recession, Deflation and Deficits Economic Outlook 2010 / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
I look forward at the beginning of every quarter to receiving the Quarterly Outlook from Hoisington Investment Management. They have been prominent proponents of the view that deflation is the problem, stemming from a variety of factors, and write about their views in a very clear and concise manner. This quarter's letter is no exception, where they once again delve into the history books to bring up fresh and relevant lessons for today. This is a must read piece.
Monday, July 12, 2010
U.S. Economy Dancing On Quicksand / Economics / US Economy
By: Bob_Clark
Do not attempt to adjust the picture. We control the horizontal and the vertical. (Old outer limits TV show intro)
Bernanke speaking to the heads of the reserve banks.
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Monday, July 12, 2010
Obama Failed Economic Policy, No Recovery Without Job Creation / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
There will be no recovery without jobs, and there will be no net job creation if small businesses, especially startups, do not lead the way.
Monday, July 12, 2010
Retail Sales Signal Economic Recovery Or the Bleeding Edge of the Great Recession's Next Down Cycle? / Economics / US Economy
By: Adam_Lass
Is Retail the "guiding light" of the recovery – or the bleeding edge of the Great Recession's next down cycle?
"It was the best of times, it was the worst of times..."
I know it's a bit saddle-worn, but old Chas. Dickens was one heck of a student of humanity, and his opening to A Tale of Two Cities, what with its dichotomous wisdom, foolishness, belief and incredulity, just seemed too apropos to pass on today.
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Saturday, July 10, 2010
Thoughts on U.S. Employment Numbers and Double-Dip Recessions / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
It's More Than Just Birth/Death
It's a Seasonal Thing
A Breakdown in Communications
Some Thoughts on Double-Dip Recessions
Just how dynamic is the US job market? If I told you we created over 4 million jobs in April, would you believe me? I had a long conversation with Mohamed El-Erian of PIMCO yesterday. He is openly speculating that employment may no longer be just a lagging indicator but may also be predictive. It is an interesting insight, which we will explore as we take a very deep look at US employment. And I answer a few questions about my thought that there is a 60% chance for a recession in 2011, and why there is a 40% chance we won't. What could change those numbers? We explore that and more, while I suffer from the injustice that LeBron will play with Wade and Bosh. Where's a nonproliferation treaty when you need it?
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Saturday, July 10, 2010
Potholes in the Economic Recovery, U.S. GDP Forecast / Economics / US Economy
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
For various reasons that will be discussed below, we are lowering our 2010 real gross domestic product (GDP) forecast. At the same time, we are publicly unveiling our 2011 forecast - admittedly not nearly as anxiously awaited as LeBron's revelation. For the second half of 2010, we now are projecting annualized real GDP growth of 1.8% versus our May forecast of 2.5%. This lower second-half projection and the Commerce Department's revised lower first quarter growth reduces our Q4/Q4 2010 real GDP growth forecast to 2.2% versus May's forecast of 2.7%. As a result of our reduced 2010 real GDP growth projection, the forecast for the unemployment rate has been increased. For Q4:2010, we now place the average unemployment rate at 10.3% versus the May forecast of 10.0%. Our Q4/Q4 2011 forecast for real GDP growth is 3.2%.
Thursday, July 08, 2010
Fastest Growth in 4 Years Retail Sales Hype / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
The Wall Street Journal reports Retailers Turn in a Mixed Bag for June Sales.
Tuesday, July 06, 2010
Signs of Cooling U.S. Economy in ISM and Jobs Data / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
In yet another sign the economy is cooling substantially, three components of the June Services ISM are now in contraction, with the overall index declining much faster than economists expected.
Saturday, July 03, 2010
Really Dismal Unemployment Numbers a Central Banker's Nightmare / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
Some Really Dismal Numbers
Unemployment Went Down?
Earnings Take a Hit
Money Supply Concerns
A Central Banker's Nightmare
Why Don't You Reform Yourselves?
There’s a reason economics is called the dismal science, and weeks like this just give it further meaning. In economics, there is what you see and what you don’t. This week we are going to examine the headline data we all see and then take a look for what most observers do not see. Then we’ll try to think about what it all really means. With employment, housing, and the ISM numbers, there is a lot to cover. And this letter will print out longer than usual, as there are a lot of charts. Warning: remove sharp objects from the vicinity and pour yourself your favorite adult beverage. This does not make for fun reading.
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Monday, June 28, 2010
U.S. Economy Mid Year Economic Forecast 2010 / Economics / US Economy
By: Money_Morning
Don Miller writes: Most textbook economists say that the U.S. economy is engaged in a broad-based recovery. But while there's a consensus that there's no "double-dip" recession on the horizon, the evidence suggests the nation's economy is headed for a slowdown in the second half of 2010.
The reason: In a market that derives 70% of its growth from consumer spending, the last half of this year will be all about those consumers - and about the economy's inability to generate enough jobs to keep the nation's cash registers ringing.
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Saturday, June 26, 2010
Terms of Trade Superiority at Forecasting U.S. Real GDP! / Economics / US Economy
By: Francois_Soto
ECRI Weekly LEI Issue
Many market participants are debating whether or not a double dip recession will occur within the next quarters. As we are writing our report, ECRI Weekly LEI fell quickly to 122.5 points from 134.7 in April. This indicator did a good job leading U.S. Real GDP Y/Y by 6 months over the last two decades. However, ECRI Weekly LEI recently became quite unreliable as it increased up to 25% Y/Y in April, a level consistent with an unrealistic 8% U.S. Real GDP Y/Y! You can notice the problem on the left chart below.
Monday, June 21, 2010
101 Scary Thoughts about the U.S. Economy / Economics / US Economy
By: Gary_North
1. The crucial objective factor promoting economic growth in a private property social order is per capita investment.
2. Americans save less than 5% of household income.
3. The Federal Reserve System runs the show economically; Congress doesn't.
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Monday, June 21, 2010
Consumer Deleveraging: the New “wall of worry” / Economics / US Economy
By: Clif_Droke
Everywhere one turns it seems that fear lurks just behind the corner, just waiting to pounce. Every day we’re bombarded by fear in the news headlines, be it from a financial, economic or geopolitical perspective. Nowhere is this more apparent than the current fear campaign over the U.S. debt situation, specifically, consumer deleveraging. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, June 16, 2010
As the Stimulus Fades U.S. Economy and Stock Market Loses Steam / Economics / US Economy
By: Claus_Vogt
Over the past two years, we’ve seen the largest stimulus policies the world has ever produced.
As a result, sovereign debt and central banks’ balance sheet holdings have gone through the roof!
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Monday, June 14, 2010
U.S. Economy Slows as States Lose Federal Stimulus Funds / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
For only the second time in 50 years, state budget cuts will act as a fiscal drag on GDP as noted by Bloomberg in Economy in U.S. Slows as States Lose Federal Stimulus Funds.
Saturday, June 12, 2010
Investors Face Long-term Structural Changes of Lower Growth, Higher Volatility and Unemployment / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
The Frog in the Frying Pan
Three Structural Changes
The Economy Won't Produce Enough Jobs
The End Game
Like an Army But with No Discipline
Tonight I am in Venice, but I have arranged for a special edition of Thoughts from the Frontline, written by Jonathan Tepper of Variant Perception, a research firm in London. I have been corresponding with Jonathan for some time, and we have had some solid, and lately quite frequent, conversations. I am very impressed with this young man, whose perceptions and insights I find quite thoughtful.
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Friday, June 11, 2010
After Government Economic Stimulus / Economics / US Economy
By: Andy_Sutton
There is perhaps no better example of the destructive nature of government intervention than the current housing and retail goods markets. For the past three years a spend-happy Congress lavished these areas with stimulus spending, tax credits, and other palliatives all aimed at papering over the structural defects in these markets. In the case of housing, the problem was years of easy money, sky-high prices, and zero-standards lending.
Friday, June 04, 2010
U.S. Economy Stalling as Easy Money Effect Wears Off! / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Larson
The evidence is coming fast and furious — and it all points in the same direction! Washington’s “bought and paid for” economic recovery is stalling out as the easy money effect wears off.
Just consider what we’ve learned in the past several days …
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Friday, June 04, 2010
Stubbornly High Unemployment Shows U.S. Economy Still Plagued by Jobless Economic Recovery / Economics / US Economy
By: Money_Morning
Don Miller writes: While a surge in corporate profits reflect an improving economy, several government reports show that the United States continues to be plagued by a lingering "jobless recovery."
Most analysts, including President Barack Obama, are predicting a strong May jobs report due out today (Friday) with more than 500,000 new jobs added to the U.S. economy.
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