Analysis Topic: Housing Market Price trends
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Saturday, August 22, 2009
Do U.S. Housing Stats Really Indicate Housing Market Bottom? / Housing-Market / US Housing
In 2006 I predicted the bursting of the real estate bubble would spread its problems into the financial industry and broad economy to create one of the worst recessions since the 1930s. In 2008 I said the problems began in the real estate industry and the eventual recovery will have to begin in the real estate industry.
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Friday, August 21, 2009
Liar Loans Were Not The Problem: Don't Worry About Re-Sets...Just A Scare Like Y-2K / Housing-Market / US Housing
Years ago I got a project building a credit scoring system for a bank that did auto loans in Dubai, it was a lot of fun, I got hold of tons of data, did a multivariate regression analysis, and the result was absolutely useless.
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Friday, August 21, 2009
U.S. Housing Market Hidden Backlog of Foreclosures / Housing-Market / US Housing
When it comes to foreclosures, there is no such thing as a "safe state". Even states that did not engage in widespread use of liar loans and other silly mortgage lending practices are struggling with foreclosures. The issue is jobs, and unemployment is rising everywhere.
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Tuesday, August 18, 2009
Bright Side of Falling House Prices / Housing-Market / US Housing
"Morally Conflicted in Arizona" writes:
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Monday, August 17, 2009
Wave of Foreclosures About to Break U.S. Housing Market Dam / Housing-Market / US Housing
A summary of Second Quarter 2009 Negative Equity Data from First American CoreLogic shows that Nearly One-Third Of All Mortgages Are Underwater.
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Sunday, August 16, 2009
U.S. Housing Market Crash Means Collapse Of The "Ownership Society" / Housing-Market / US Housing
Bush's "ownership society" has collapsed under the dead weight of debt. There is too much debt and too little income to support it. Please consider President shifts focus to renting, not owning.
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Sunday, August 16, 2009
Searching For Financially Sound Property Market Equity REITS / Housing-Market / Housing Stocks
Equity REITs have made a strong move lately. We have expressed our doubts about the wisdom of that move (Are REITs Ahead of Themselves?), and wonder about the quality of the underlying trusts.
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Thursday, August 13, 2009
U.S. Housing Market Recovery Will Be Slow as Foreclosures Continue to Weigh on Housing Prices / Housing-Market / US Housing
Bob Blandeburgo writes: Prices for single-family and condominium homes in the second quarter fell by a record 15.6% and 19.8% year-over-year in the United States, mainly due to foreclosures.
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Thursday, August 13, 2009
U.S. Housing Bear Market Cash for Clunkers Solution / Housing-Market / US Housing
Caroline Baum sent me the following Bloomberg clips.
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Monday, August 10, 2009
Shattered U.S. Housing Market Dreams and the Painful Process of Household Deleveraging / Housing-Market / US Housing
Inquiring minds are reading a Comstock Special Report on Deleveraging the U.S. Economy.
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Monday, August 10, 2009
UK Housing Market Mortgage Products Crash / Housing-Market / Mortgages
Borrowers need to find three times more for a deposit, compared with two years ago when the credit crunch began.
The average LTV has fallen from 91% in August 2007, to 74% today. As a result the average deposit required on a £150,000 mortgage has increased from £13,500 to £39,000.
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Wednesday, August 05, 2009
Has the UK Housing Market Bottomed? / Housing-Market / UK Housing
Well, there's a surprise. It turns out that Northern Rock was a risky lender after all.
The bank that brought the credit crunch vividly to life for the British public when it blew up in August 2007, has often insisted that its actual loans weren't that bad. It was the business model and the reliance on the wholesale markets that pulled it down, as a result of the "totally unforeseeable" credit crunch.
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Tuesday, August 04, 2009
Pressure to Remain on Commercial Real Estate for a Decade / Housing-Market / US Housing
Retail, office, and industrial real estate are all suffering to various degrees.
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Sunday, August 02, 2009
U.S. Housing Market Florida Condo Bust / Housing-Market / US Housing
In case you did not realize just how bad the condo bust is in Florida, this story will clue you in: Florida highrise has 32 stories, but just 1 tenant.
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Saturday, August 01, 2009
U.S. Housing Market Forecast, One Dead Cat Bounce and Two Sucker Rallies to Go? / Housing-Market / US Housing
The big excitement this month was the tiny up-tick in the May S&P Case-Shiller Index. "Seasonally adjusted" the number was still down on April, but then it's not clear what's "seasonal" about a house-price crash. Right now the bulk of the market is driven by foreclosure sales and there is no evidence that is "seasonal".
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Saturday, August 01, 2009
U.S. Housing Market Winds Shifting, Investor Flexibility Breeds Opportunity / Housing-Market / US Housing
If there’s one thing you learn fast in this business, its flexibility. If you stay rigid, unwavering, and unyielding in the face of a mounting pile of contrary technical and fundamental evidence, you’re not being disciplined. You’re being inflexible. And you’re going to go broke pretty darn quick!
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Thursday, July 30, 2009
How Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Helped Create the U.S. Housing Market Bubble / Housing-Market / US Housing
Shah Gilani writes: Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM), originally designated as a "government-sponsored enterprise" (GSE), was born in 1938 as a child of U.S. President Franklin Delano Roosevelt's Great-Depression-fighting "New Deal," and was designed to stimulate mortgage lending.
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Thursday, July 30, 2009
U.S. Housing Market Bottom or Heading for Another Collapse? / Housing-Market / US Housing
Jason Simpkins writes: A rash of positive housing data has given some analysts hope that the housing market has bottomed and an economic recovery is underway. But the soaring unemployment and rising mortgage rates could lead to a double-dip plunge for the housing market.
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Thursday, July 30, 2009
U.S. Housing Market Mortgage Debt Walk Away Hypocrites Comments / Housing-Market / US Housing
Yesterday's post Emails from Housing Hypocrites about Ethics generated an unusually high number of responses. Let's take a look at some of them.
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Wednesday, July 29, 2009
Has the U.S. Housing Market Hit Bottom? / Housing-Market / US Housing
Now that a number of recent housing reports are generating some incredibly positive headlines and the global economy appears to be slowly digging its way out of an enormous hole that was created last fall when the world nearly came to an end, the burning question on the minds of millions of people is ... Has the housing market hit bottom?
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