Analysis Topic: Currency Market Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Thursday, November 27, 2014
ECB tentatively edges closer to QE in 2015; more EUR weakness likely / Currencies / Euro
By: MahiFX
The characterisation of Europe as “elderly and haggard” by Pope Francis is an accurate one, but on December 4 the European Central Bank could lay the groundwork to try and revitalise the region's sagging economy.
If was down to European Central Bank President Mario Draghi, the Eurozone would already be on the receiving end of a substantial quantitative easing programme and likely the EUR would be even weaker than it is now – but Draghi's time could yet come, as early as December 4th.
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Wednesday, November 26, 2014
EUR/USD – Currency Bulls Don’t Give Up / Currencies / Euro
By: Nadia_Simmons
Earlier today, the Conference Board showed that its index of consumer confidence dropped to 88.7 in November, missing analysts’ expectations for an increase to 95.9. In a response, the U.S. dollar moved lower, which pushed the EUR/USD pair to an important resistance line. Will we see a breakout and further improvement?
In our opinion, the following forex trading positions are justified - summary:
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Monday, November 24, 2014
What Causes the U.S. Dollar to Move? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Understanding the relationship between the U.S. dollar and gold is necessary to successfully invest in gold. However, it is not sufficient, because changes in the USD exchange rates cannot be analyzed outside the economic context: gold, although not officially money, is traded like a currency. Therefore, long-term investors should not analyze the gold market in isolation or confine themselves to observe the U.S. dollar index. The price of gold reflects the complex financial world and hence depends on many factors: the movements of interest rates, inflation or economic growth. The U.S. dollar may rise due to many factors, each time affecting the price of gold in a slightly different way. In other words, if the USD and gold prices have an inverse relationship, then forecasts for gold prices should be prepared while taking into account the expectations of currency movement. To do this, we need to understand the factors driving the greenback.
Monday, November 24, 2014
All Hail the King U.S. Dollar - Trend Forecast / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Rambus_Chartology
In part two of this Weekend Report I want to take an indepth look at the US dollar as many of the important currencies of the world all seem to be making important moves right now. If that is true then the US dollar is also in the process of making an important move in the opposite direction.
Below is a long term monthly chart for the US dollar that shows black and white candlesticks. In a strong impulse move down you will see a string of back candles all in a row and in a strong impulse move up you will see a string of white candles all in a row. If the US dollar doesn't crash and burn during this last week of trading for November, it will have completed it sixth month in a row of white candles sticks. This is telling us the breakout move from the massive ten year base is underway and is looking healthy. Remember big bases equals a big move and a small base equals a small move. It's all relative.
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Friday, November 21, 2014
Currency Wars, the Ruble and Keynes / Currencies / Currency War
By: Steve_H_Hanke
The specter of currency wars once again haunts the international chattering classes. Remember back in 2011, when Brazilian finance minister Guido Mantega blamed the U.S. for deliberately weakening the greenback to gain a competitive advantage? Well, now the shoe is on the other foot.
The Yen — an important regional currency — recently sank to a sevenyear low against the now mighty U.S. dollar (USD). This is putting downward pressure on the Korean won and other Asian currencies. The situation is similar in Africa where the Kenyan shilling has hit a three-year low against the USD; the Nigerian naira recently set an all-time low against the dollar; the Ghanaian cedi has shed over 25 percent of its value against the greenback this year. The big Latin American loser is the Venezuelan bolivar, followed by the hopeless Argentine peso. Moving to Europe, Ukraine’s hryvnia has lost over 88 percent of its value against the USD this year, while the Russian ruble has racked up a loss of over 43 percent against the greenback in the same time span. The list could go on, but let’s focus on Russia and the travails of the ruble.
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Friday, November 21, 2014
Paper Money Yielding Madness / Currencies / Fiat Currency
By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis
The mainstream investor (with any time and "money" left), wielding an internet connection, and hell bent for yield is about to feel the temperature drop despite a thousand reminders that the cold winter is coming. (Or perhaps not - if you are in South Florida.)
Zero interest policy scorches the planner and the saver, rotting the seed corn while providing fuel for speculation, breeding the trading culture pestilence we see today. Yet again, another tiresome cycle appears. More bubbles to end all bubbles.
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Tuesday, November 18, 2014
Bitcoin Price Did We Just See an Important Slump? / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: Mike_McAra
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) expressed an opinion it does have authority over Bitcoin, at least as far as investigating any possible price manipulation is concerned, we read on The Wall Street Journal website:
A commissioner at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission said Monday that the agency was authorized to intervene with enforcement actions against price manipulation in bitcoin markets.
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Tuesday, November 18, 2014
How High Could USD/JPY Go? / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: Nadia_Simmons
Yesterday, official data showed that annualized Japan's gross domestic product dropped by 1.6% in the third quarter, missing economists‘ forecast of a 2.3% growth and following a 7.3% drop in the second quarter, which puts the country in a recession. In these circumstances USD/JPY extended gains and hit a fresh multi-year high of 117.04. How high could the exchange rate go?
Friday, November 14, 2014
Plunging EUR & JPY Could Trigger Regional Currency Wars / Currencies / Currency War
By: MahiFX
The good news about a soaring USD is that it eases global trade tensions as it is the world's main currency. But systematic devaluations of EUR and JPY are another matter and will force neighbouring countries to respond by pushing down the value of their currencies.
Japan and the Eurozone have become like black holes in the global economy desperate to suck in growth from where ever they can find it. Both struggle to grow domestically, suffer deflationary pressures and also want to tap into the greater economic vitality of their neighbours via exports.
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Friday, November 14, 2014
The Return of the U.S. Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: John_Mauldin
Two years ago, my friend Mohamed El-Erian and I were on the stage at my Strategic Investment Conference. Naturally we were discussing currencies in the global economy, and I asked him about currency wars. He smiled and said to me, “John, we don’t talk about currency wars in polite circles. More like currency disagreements” (or some word to that effect).
Friday, November 14, 2014
Currency Wars Next Phase - Yen Plunge, Yuan Devaluation, Tidal Wave of Deflation / Currencies / Currency War
By: Mike_Shedlock
The Yen currently trades about 115 to the US dollar. At the end of 2011 the Yen was about 77 to the dollar. That is a decline of roughly 33%.
Yet, Japan's inflation barely budged. Japan's prime minister Shinzo Abe is not pleased.
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Wednesday, November 12, 2014
British Pound Breaks Channel Support Following BOE Inflation Report / Currencies / British Pound
By: Gregor_Horvat
USD is mixed across the board but we see in a strong shape against the pound after BoE forecasts that the inflation rate will fall below 1% within 6 months, and rise toward the 2% target by the end of the 3-year forecast period. The bank also cut the GDP forecast by 0.2% for both 2015 and 2016 (to 2.9% and 2.6%, respectively), and cited a weaker Europe, which was the reason for weaker GBPUSD as well as lower prices on FTSE100.
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Wednesday, November 12, 2014
Russia's Central Bank Sets Ruble Free / Currencies / Russia
By: Pravda
The Central Bank of the Russian Federation canceled the corridor of the currency basket, as well as regular interventions at the boundaries of the corridor and beyond them, an official statement from the Bank said, TASS reports.
"The Bank of Russia, from November 10, 2014, abolished the acting mechanism of exchange rate policy, reversing the interval of admissible values of the bi-currency basket (operating range) and regular interventions at the boundaries of this range and beyond," the statement said.
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Monday, November 10, 2014
EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/JPY... Forex Forecasts Last Chance / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: EWI
This is your last chance to access free forex forecasts week.
During FreeWeek, you get unrestricted, 24/7 access to intraday, daily, weekly and monthly forecasts -- including charts and videos -- for these FX markets:
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Monday, November 10, 2014
Fiat Wealth Illusion - We Don't Need Your Stinking Principles / Currencies / Fiat Currency
By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis
“Nobody can predict how long governments can get away with fake growth, fake money, fake financial stability, fake jobs, fake inflation numbers and fake income growth. Our feeling is that confidence, especially when it is unjustified, is quite a thin veneer. When confidence is lost, that loss can be severe, sudden and simultaneous across a number of markets and sectors.” - Paul SingerI noticed the following financial cartoon was making its rounds over the weekend. Particularly this section. In case you can't see the image, the quote that stood out was this one:
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Saturday, November 08, 2014
When Deflation Comes Knocking at the Door / Currencies / Deflation
By: Alasdair_Macleod
There is little doubt that deflationary risks have increased in recent weeks, if only because the dollar has risen sharply against other currencies. Understanding what this risk actually is, as opposed to what the talking heads say it is, will be central to financial survival, particularly for those with an interest in precious metals.
The economic establishment associates deflation, or falling prices, with lack of demand. From this it follows that if it is allowed to continue, deflation will lead to business failures and ultimately bank insolvencies due to contraction of bank credit. Therefore, the reasoning goes, demand and consumer confidence must be stimulated to ensure this doesn't happen.
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Friday, November 07, 2014
Bitcoin Price Volatility / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: Mike_McAra
In short: speculative short positions, stop-loss at $377, take-profit at $307.
Mark Wetjen, a member of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), wrote an opinion piece for The Wall Street Journal in which he highlighted the potential of Bitcoin:
Read full article... Read full article...With a market capitalization of around $4.4 billion, Bitcoin represents a tiny fraction of the U.S. financial system. But as Jerry Brito, director of the think tank Coin Center, said at our public meeting, Bitcoin has the potential to provide tremendous benefits to the under-banked and un-banked, particularly in emerging markets where traditional financial services often are not available. Bitcoin is likely to be an especially powerful resource for people who rely on mobile-payment systems on their smartphones.
Thursday, November 06, 2014
Forex vs. Stocks: What's "better" to Trade? / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: EWI
As of 2013, the daily trading volume in foreign exchange was more than $5 TRILLION a day. EWI's currencies expert, Jim Martens, discusses the pros and cons of trading forex vs. trading stocks.
Wednesday, November 05, 2014
Ron Paul Says: Watch the Petrodollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Casey_Research
By Nick Giambruno, Senior Editor, InternationalMan.com
The chaos that one day will ensue from our 35-year experiment with worldwide fiat money will require a return to money of real value. We will know that day is approaching when oil-producing countries demand gold, or its equivalent, for their oil rather than dollars or euros. The sooner the better.—Ron Paul
Dr. Paul is referring to the petrodollar system, one of the main pillars that’s been holding up the US dollar’s status as the world’s premier reserve currency since the breakdown of Bretton Woods.
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Wednesday, November 05, 2014
AUD/USD - Double Bottom / Currencies / Austrailia
By: Nadia_Simmons
Earlier today, official data showed that retail sales in Australia increased by 1.2% in September, beating expectations for a 0.4% rise. As a result, AUD/USD bounced off a one-month low and came back above the short-term support. Will we see a post-double bottom rally?
In our opinion, the following forex trading positions are justified - summary:
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