Category: Pandemic
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Monday, April 13, 2020
Covid-19: Who, what, when, where and Why? / Politics / Pandemic
By: Richard_Mills
If there is one thing we know about the coronavirus, it’s that getting a jump on it helps to limit the number of infections. Clearly the best time to stop this, and all outbreaks, is in its early stages.
Both China and the United States have been accused of suppressing information and delaying acting on knowledge that could have significantly limited the spread of covid-19.
Some may argue this is no time for armchair quarterbacking, as the virus continues to ravage the United States, Canada and several nations in Western Europe including the UK, France, Germany, Italy and Spain.
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Sunday, April 12, 2020
UK Coronavirus Trend Trajectory Current State - Video / Politics / Pandemic
By: Nadeem_Walayat
At times it can be difficult not to be swept along with the NHS wave that has gripped Britain, the clapping and cheering, and stories of Nightingale hospitals coming on stream with thousands of beds. But the same dynamics are at work here, i.e. a high percentage of people on ventilators eventually dying and a surge in the number of patients, so one should take media stories focused on the 15,000 or so of extra beds across Britain's Nightingale hospitals with a pinch of salt, as likely they will not turn out to be anywhere near as effective as people believe them to be should they end up in a Nightingale hospital. So more a publicity stunt than building effective extra capacity.
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Saturday, April 11, 2020
US Coronavirus Trend Trajectory Forecast Update - Video / Politics / Pandemic
By: Nadeem_Walayat
My forecast as of 22nd of March is for the US to trend towards 531,000 tested as infected by the end of April coupled with 26,550 deaths, for a Case Fatality Rate (CFR) of 5%, as it was hoped that valuable time would not be squandered on political bickering during this escalating national emergency, where every day counts.
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Wednesday, April 08, 2020
When Will UK Coronavirus Crisis Imrpove - Infections and Deaths Trend Trajectory Analysis / Politics / Pandemic
By: Nadeem_Walayat
UK Coronavirus Trend Trajectory Current State
At times it can be difficult not to be swept along with the NHS wave that has gripped Britain, the clapping and cheering, and stories of Nightingale hospitals coming on stream with thousands of beds. But the same dynamics are at work here, i.e. a high percentage of people on ventilators eventually dying and a surge in the number of patients, so one should take media stories focused on the 15,000 or so of extra beds across Britain's Nightingale hospitals with a pinch of salt, as likely they will not turn out to be anywhere near as effective as people believe them to be should they end up in a Nightingale hospital. So more a publicity stunt than building effective extra capacity.
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Tuesday, April 07, 2020
US Coronavirus Trend Trajectory Forecast Current State / Politics / Pandemic
By: Nadeem_Walayat
My forecast as of 22nd of March is for the US to trend towards 531,000 tested as infected by the end of April coupled with 26,550 deaths, for a Case Fatality Rate (CFR) of 5%, as it was hoped that valuable time would not be squandered on political bickering during this escalating national emergency, where every day counts.
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Tuesday, April 07, 2020
Boris Johnson Fighting for his Life In Intensive Care - UK Coronavirus Crisis / Politics / Pandemic
By: N_Walayat
Britain's Prime Minister Boris Johnson is said to be fighting for his life after being moved to Intensive Care a few hours ago. After having contracted Coronavirus about 2 weeks ago, and diagnosed some 10 days ago with the symptoms rapidly worsening over the past couple of days prompting being admitted to St Thomas's hospital on Sunday having received oxygen Monday before being moved to intensive care.
At this point in time it is not clear if he has been put onto a ventilator or not, which unfortunately carries a high mortality rate of over 80% as most of those put on ventilators don't tend to make it.
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Saturday, April 04, 2020
Bracing for Europe’s Coronavirus Contractionand Debt Crisis / Economics / Pandemic
By: Dan_Steinbock
Since inadequate preparedness prevailed in Europe until recently, the consequent pandemic will cast a prolonged, dark shadow over the regionwide economy – starting with the contraction, followed by the debt crisis.
Around the world, the early economic defense against the economic impact of the novel coronavirus has been by the major central banks to cut down the rates, inject liquidity and re-start major asset purchases.
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Friday, April 03, 2020
US Between Scylla and Charybdis Covid-19 / Politics / Pandemic
By: Richard_Mills
I’m just going to come right out and say it: The United States is not equipped to deal with a pandemic. The nation of 327 million, despite having the number one economy in the world, and by far the most powerful military, is shockingly ill-prepared, not only in terms of having the proper supplies to fight the hard-to-kill coronavirus, but also regarding its lack of focus, its dearth of leadership, and perhaps most failingly, its inability to mobilize a population against a common viral enemy.
On Monday, US stocks rallied, due to traders optimistic over efforts to deliver rapid testing of the coronavirus, and multinational Johnson & Johnson announcing a potential vaccine candidate.
Prompt and widespread testing in other countries, like South Korea, has been effective in curbing the spread of covid-19. But the US testing regime has proved woefully inadequate. There are not nearly enough test kits available, it took too long to start testing, and the kits have been slow to deliver results to an anxious population.
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Friday, April 03, 2020
Covid19 What's Your Risk of Death Analysis by Age, Gender, Comorbidities and BMI / Politics / Pandemic
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Coronavirus Infections and deaths trend trajectories for the UK and US continue to go parabolic, far beyond anything anyone could have imagined even 2 weeks ago when the US had just 170 deaths and the UK 100, since which time they have continued to follow catastrophic trajectories recently prompting dire warnings out of the UK and US to expect as many as 20,000 UK deaths and 200,000 US deaths.
The focus of this analysis will be on the probability of dieing if one contracts Covid19 over the coming weeks, analysis which is based on data from the Journal of American Medical Association and the Lancet's analysis of Italian and Chinese deaths.
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Thursday, April 02, 2020
US Coronavirus Infections & Deaths Trend Trajectory - How Bad Will it Get? / Politics / Pandemic
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The only adult in the White House Dr Fauci has started stating what sort of death toll to expect for the Untied States over the coming months of between 100,000 to 200,000 deaths as a consequence of the Coronavirus pandemic.
Trump implemented the Defence Production act mobilising US industry into producing tens of thousands of ventilators, which whilst good is however TOO LATE as the actions the US is taking today should have been taken a month ago!
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Wednesday, April 01, 2020
UK Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Trend Trajectory - Deviation Against Forecast / Politics / Pandemic
By: Nadeem_Walayat
So Boris Johnson is infected and self isolating, Matt Hancock the Health Minster is infected and self isolating, Chris Whitty the Chief Medical officer is infected and self isolating. Westminister is now turning into a hottest of UK hotspots as the officials and MP's failed to practice that which they preached. Maybe with these idiots out of the picture the nation can act more competently in containing the pandemic. Meanwhile the government representative at the daily briefings has started mentioning that if the UK can keep deaths below 20,000 than that would be a good thing! What's South Korea's number? 150! CRIMINAL! That's what the governments response to Coronavirus has been CRIMINAL! Now there are even reports that the government is under reporting the number of deaths perhaps in attempts to average out the numbers over a month rather than to post spikes that would panic healthcare workers and the general public.
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Wednesday, April 01, 2020
US Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Projections Trend Forecast - Video / Politics / Pandemic
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The US has had a major advantage over the rest of the western world, which is that it has had a LOT MORE TIME TO PRPARE FOR THE PANDEMIC, Unfortunately the US only really started to actually act in any significant manner when the stock prices started to collapse early March. However, that still gave the US a good head start on the likes of the UK, which is reflected in the US's low CFR rate of 1.3%.
Which suggests that the US DOES have a chance to get a grip on the pandemic and veer more towards South Korea then Italy or Britain where the pandemic is more less now baked in.
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Wednesday, April 01, 2020
From Global Virus Acceleration to Global Debt Explosion / Politics / Pandemic
By: Dan_Steinbock
The novel coronavirus is exploding in the US and Europe, due to complacency and inadequate preparedness. The escalation will translate to debt explosion, which will further complicate and prolong the fight against the virus globally.
As the COVID-19 challenge moved from imported cases to local transmissions, I warned in the briefing of March 9 that the rise of local transmissions was a game-changer in the coronavirus escalation. Here's what I projected then:
“Even though many observers expected virus challenges to ease toward April, the acceleration of new cases outside China is only beginning and likely grossly under-reported. The number of confirmed cases worldwide is set to climb in the future – even faster as tests are broadened in major affected countries.”
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Wednesday, April 01, 2020
P FOR PANDEMIC / Politics / Pandemic
By: James_Quinn
“People should not be afraid of their governments. Governments should be afraid of their people.” – Alan Moore – V for Vendetta
“Authority, when first detecting chaos at its heels, will entertain the vilest schemes to save its orderly facade.” – Alan Moore – V for Vendetta
I wrote an article called V for Vendetta – 2011 just over nine years ago on the day after the Tucson shooting where congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords and eighteen others were shot by a psychologically disturbed lunatic, with six dying. At the time, I thought of the scene from the V for Vendetta movie where someone did something stupid and all hell broke loose. I expected a similar result from this act, but those in control of our society were successfully able to put a cork in the bottle, preserving their façade of order.
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Tuesday, March 31, 2020
Coronavirus - No, You Do Not Hear the Fat Lady Warming Up / Politics / Pandemic
By: The_Energy_Report
Bob Moriarty of 321gold comments on where he believes the economy is heading.
Those who never predicted a financial collapse in the first place are now edging closer to the swamp to dip their toes into the water. Now they are suggesting, perhaps we could have a recession."
Forget that. You cannot have every supply chain in the world chopped in two and have a recession. A depression was baked into the cake before the Corona popped out of the six-pack. The US government dumping a $6 trillion dollar bailout for their buddies that has more pork in it than the butt of a two-ton pig is the proverbial pissing up a rope. We are in a depression. The entire financial system, education system, medical system, political system, hell, the entire artifice needs a total reset.
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Monday, March 30, 2020
US and UK Coronavirus Trend Trajectories vs Bear Market and AI Stocks Sector / Politics / Pandemic
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The world is increasingly going into LOCK DOWN, with the latest being India (a lock down mostly in all but name). Still Europe is in lock down, large swaths of the US are increasingly going into lock down that saw a fumbling in the dark President Trump first suggest a quarantine for the entire state of New York and neighbouring states, only to back track a few hours later when the adults in the White House had a quiet word with him thus saving the US from another 10% down trading day Monday!
What's just as worrying as the Coronavirus are the Gestapoesk powers being handed to the Police, it won't be long before the powers start going to their heads and abuse of power starts takes place. At least in the UK usually the worst ordinary citizens are going to face is being tasered, expect far worse in the US a case of shoot first test later policy!
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Sunday, March 29, 2020
United States Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Trend Forecasts Into End April 2020 / Stock-Markets / Pandemic
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is the final part of my analysis that concludes in detailed trend forecasts for UK and US Coronavirus Infections and deaths into the end of April 2020. The importance of which being to act as indicators for the primary driver for stock market trend since Mid February. Where as was the case with my preceding forecasts into the end of March, deviations against the Coronavirus trend warned of worse prospects for stock prices as the UK and US FAILED to follow the South Korean model of containing the pandemic, instead either proved completely incompetent in doing nothing despite having had well over a months advance warning of what to expect. Or perhaps by design so as to allow the virus to infect the general population as it was deemed to be impossible to prevent in the long-run given the movement of people, goods and services and so a quick sharp deadly shock was deemed to be the most cost effective solution.
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Sunday, March 29, 2020
An Investment in Life / Politics / Pandemic
By: Patrick_Watson
If you’re following the coronavirus news from home, thank you for helping society through this hard time. Home is where we should all be, except for medical, food, public safety and other such essential workers. Please be careful if you do have to run out for necessities.
None of us have seen anything like this. Even in wartime, there are rear areas and safe zones where people can breathe easily. In this situation, we’re all vulnerable everywhere.
Virus mitigation measures, while necessary, are severely straining the economy. Places like mainland China, Taiwan, South Korea and Singapore show that early, aggressive measures can work. But they come at tremendous cost.
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Saturday, March 28, 2020
UK Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Projections Trend Forecast - Video / Politics / Pandemic
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The UK government started the ball rolling in announcing a number of measures in attempts at slowing the parabolic curve that the pandemic was on, first of which was to close all schools as of Friday 20th March, which in my opinion was about 2 weeks later than they should have closed the schools. Still in terms of pandemic time line it is about 5 days ahead of when Italy closed all of their schools, so 'should' help resolve towards a better outcome.
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Saturday, March 28, 2020
UK Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Projections Trend Forecast Into End April 2020 / Politics / Pandemic
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This analysis concludes in detailed trend forecasts for UK and US Coronavirus Infections and deaths into the end of April 2020. The importance of which being to act as indicators for the primary driver for stock market trend since Mid February. Where as was the case with my preceding forecasts into the end of March, deviations against the Coronavirus trend warned of worse prospects for stock prices as the UK and US FAILED to follow the South Korean model of containing the pandemic, instead either proved completely incompetent in doing nothing despite having had well over a months advance warning of what to expect. Or perhaps by design so as to allow the virus to infect the general population as it was deemed to be impossible to prevent in the long-run given the movement of people, goods and services and so a quick sharp deadly shock was deemed to be the most cost effective solution.
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