When Will UK Coronavirus Crisis Imrpove - Infections and Deaths Trend Trajectory Analysis

Politics / Pandemic Apr 08, 2020 - 12:57 PM GMT

UK Coronavirus Trend Trajectory Current State

At times it can be difficult not to be swept along with the NHS wave that has gripped Britain, the clapping and cheering, and stories of Nightingale hospitals coming on stream with thousands of beds. But the same dynamics are at work here, i.e. a high percentage of people on ventilators eventually dying and a surge in the number of patients, so one should take media stories focused on the 15,000 or so of extra beds across Britain's Nightingale hospitals with a pinch of salt, as likely they will not turn out to be anywhere near as effective as people believe them to be should they end up in a Nightingale hospital. So more a publicity stunt than building effective extra capacity.

My trend forecast as of 22nd of March concluded in the UK trending towards 123,000 infected tested positive, and 8,100 deaths by the end of April 2020.

Last week the number of infected was 19,522 which was marginally better than forecast (21,777), and actual number of deaths reported of 1228 was also marginally better than forecast (1447).

One thing to note though is that the infections and deaths number cover different time periods i.e. deaths reported today are as of 5pm yesterday. Whilst infections are as of 9am today, therefore a small adjustment needs to be made to the number of deaths to bring the timings inline with the release of infections data.

Therefore the latest data as of 5th of April has the number infected at 47,806 which is actually less that my forecast of 52,041 by now. But deaths are running well ahead of forecast at 5,244 against 4,217 forecast that resolves to a shockingly high case fatality rate of 11%. Were this trend to persist than the UK would be heading for about 10,000 deaths by the end of April. So both Infections and deaths are tracking my trend forecast, and thus I expect the number of deaths to start moderating over the coming week as it looks like the UK is gong to plateau this week before starting to decline next week.

However, coronavirus reality is not as promising as the data suggests as the official UK data is not counting deaths outside of hospitals as a consequence of Covid-19, and so the number of deaths is probably under reported by at least 25%. That and the hospitals will continue to fill up with new cases of covid19 over the coming weeks, with signs that Britain's healthcare system is already starting to buckle as Police have started cordoning off hospitals such as Watford hospital which is no longer accepting any new patients that is likely to be replicated across the UK this week. So this is definitely NOT the time to get infected and fall ill in a week or 2's time. So everyone should avoid the temptation to break the lockdown to go out and enjoy the sunshine because the NHS won't be in any shape to treat you!.

Meanwhile Boris Johnson, the idiot in No 10 who a month ago was joking about shaking hands with everyone in a hospital with covid-19 patients has himself now been admitted to hospital 10 days after being diagnosed with Covid-19. Day 10-14 tends to be critical for covid-19 sufferers as to whether they have a mild (none hospitalisation case) or whether life saving interventions are necessary. So whilst he is a idiot who acted too late that has likely cost several thousand lives, nevertheless this is the worst time for the nation to be rudderless going into the peak of the Coronavirus storm so hopefully the hospital admission is just precautionary rather than implying something worse as this disease is unforgiving to those who end up on ventilators.

Taiwan

If there is one nation to emulate than that should be Taiwan, a nation of 24 million people with just 355 cases and 5 deaths! The secret to which appears to be effective containment and the wearing face masks. So perhaps everyone should start wearing face masks, maybe distributed by the government, though our governments have shown themselves to be completely incompetent at containment.

The rest of this extensive analysis has first be made available to Patrons who support my work: UK and US Coronavirus Trend, America's "Pearl Harbour" Moment in War with China Mega-trend

UK and US Coronavirus Catastrophe Due to Government Negligence
America's "Pearl Harbour" Moment - War With China Mega-trend
US Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Trend Trajectory Current State
UK Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Trend Trajectory Current State
Stock Market Trend Implications
AI Stocks Buying Levels
WIndfall Taxes
Risk of Death

So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

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Your Analyst

Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

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