Category: Stock Markets 2016
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Tuesday, March 01, 2016
Is the Most Hated Stocks Bull Market in History Over? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Sol_Palha
"An ounce of patience is worth a pound of brains." ~ Dutch Proverb
Throughout this bull-run, a plethora of reasons has been laid out to indicate why this bull should have ended years ago. Mind you most of those reasons are valid, but that is where the bucket stops. Being right does not equate to making money on Wall Street. In fact, the opposite usually applies. The Fed recreated all the rules by flooding the markets with money and creating and maintaining an environment that fosters speculation.
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Tuesday, March 01, 2016
DOW Stocks Index Set For Bullish 2016 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Austin_Galt
Ahh, the Ides of March. This is a time when stock market participants get the heebie-jeebies and it is my expectation that the first part of the month will play into this superstitious claptrap. However, once an expected higher low is in place, then a big move to the upside will be witnessed that sees March end impressively in the green.
The January analysis outlined the expectation of a move down to put in a higher low. Bingo. The February analysis outlined the expectation of another downside test that puts in another higher low. Bingo again. In this March analysis, I'm gunning for the jackpot prize in calling for one final downside test to put in yet another higher low before price launches higher big time.
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Tuesday, March 01, 2016
Stock Market Nothing Bearish Yet...Hesitation For Now...Still Nowhere... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Jack_Steiman
Right now is an EXTREMELY critical time for the market, and I'll explain why so pay attention. On Thursday of last week, we made a triple top breakout on the S&P 500 above 1947. A full candle day above that key level as we closed on the highs. The key was to see follow-through the very next day, Friday. We got just that. A nice follow-through early in the day, but we got overbought. Overbought can stay that way, but not this time, as we fell back and closed at 1948. One tail up, thus, not the best action for the bulls. We came in to today no longer overbought, so no more excuses. We started out slightly red, but blasted higher as the morning went along. Halfway through the afternoon the fun stopped on the up side.
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Monday, February 29, 2016
Overseas Stock Markets are Down. SPX Targeted by HFTs / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
The SPX Premarket is marginally lower this morning. However, it has not crossed beneath the 50-day Moving Average at 142.90, so anything may happen at the open.
The largest influence on the markets appears to be China. ZeroHedge reports, “After the G-20 ended in a wave of global disappointment, leading to the biggest Yuan devaluation in 8 weeks, and sending Chinese stocks into a tailspin on concerns the PBOC has forsaken its stock market as well as speculation the housing bubble is now sucking up excess liquidity which in turn pushed global market deep in the red to start the week, it was the PBOC's turn to scramble in a panicked reaction to sliding risk exactly one month after Japan unveiled its own desperation NIRP, and as reported before unexpectedly cut its Reserve Requirement Ratio by 0.5% to 17.0%, the first such cut in 2016 and the 5th since the start of 2015.”
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Monday, February 29, 2016
Another Pull Back in the Stock Market Due? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Brad_Gudgeon
Last week, I was doing what most traders were doing, being swayed by the momentum indicators. Last time we saw the momentum indicators where they are now we pulled back a little and then continued on up. That was early October 2015. The problem is, the current e-wave formation has an irregular bottom that formed after the February 8 low and that was on February 11, which suggests a move below the last low of SPX 1810 and soon. And here we have the astros confirming along with the very short term momentum indicators agreeing.
Monday, February 29, 2016
Is the Stocks Bear Rally Ending At A 50% Retracement? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend - Severe correction underway.
SPX: Intermediate trend - Next down-phase close at hand.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.
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Sunday, February 28, 2016
“Somebody” Stepped In to Prop Up Stocks Friday / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Graham_Summers
At this point the manipulations are getting ridiculous.
“Someone” decided to step in a prop up stocks yesterday. How do we know it was a market prop and not real investors?
There were several “tells.”
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Saturday, February 27, 2016
Challenging S&P 500 1947/Breakout....Sentiment Changes... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Jack_Steiman
A very interesting week as the S&P 500 made a strong move upward towards the double top breakout at 1947. It succeeded at getting through. That was as of the close yesterday, so naturally when you get a breakout what you want to see is follow-through, which was the case this morning when we woke up to some very strong futures. The breakout was on with a move to 1962 early on in the day. A nearly 1% move, which can be confirming, but only on a closing basis. When the day was over we saw the S&P 500 pull back, and, thus, it closed only one point above the breakout level, which is not enough to yet confirm that breakout move. Above, but not by enough. So yes, the market has made its strong move off the bottom, but now we get some deeper understanding about what's taking place. About whether this was a rally in a bearish environment, or whether the market is ready for much higher prices. When you study this evening's charts you'll see some very interesting back tests that got stopped today.
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Saturday, February 27, 2016
Stocks Rally on Lies, Fantasy, and Hope / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Barry_M_Ferguson
What should we make of the rally in stocks, world stocks, metals, materials, oil, junk bonds, and everything else that could be counted as an asset in the third week of February, 2016? Well, not much. When central banksters want a rally, we get a rally!
The stock rally can easily be explained through ‘calendar-ization’. This is a term that I coined a few years back so if you reuse it, send me some money. What it means is this. Every year, central bankers and their shills (Wall Street, bankers, financial media) goose asset prices in the fourth quarter so investors will get a pretty statement in January. Knowing that the next quarterly statement doesn’t get printed until April, these same manipulators take off the better part of January to rest and restock their inkjet money printers. Naturally, asset prices swoon. Realizing that most investors get monthly statements as well, these manipulators go into panic mode and begin to goose asset prices to mute the damage of January. If the selling in January is too brutal, as was the case this year (2016), the manipulators hold off until February. Then we get a rerun of the same movie.
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Friday, February 26, 2016
SPX Rally Met by Triple Resistance / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
SPX did not make its Fibonacci 50% retracement at 1963.29. Instead, it declined back beneath its Cycle Top resistance at 1959.81 and Broadening formation trendline at 1956.00. A confirmation and sell signal comes beneath the 50-day Moving Average at 1943.49.
The peak came at 09:32 hours, only two minutes after the open. This may also be a confirmation of yesterday’s expected Pivot. We may yet see a retest of either the trendline at 1956.00 or the Cycle Top resistance now at 1961.70.
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Friday, February 26, 2016
February 26 Could Be a Wild Day in Markets! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Brad_Gudgeon
Not only does February 26 have a slew of economic reports, but it also has some interesting cycle, e-wave, and astro-signatures. Earlier this week, my thinking was we were going to see a ‘b’ wave pull back in the stock market followed by higher prices. Then the irregular top came in Monday and I was beginning to believe that we just completed a bear flag. Well, the first scenario is proving to be the correct one and that is we are in a “b” wave pull back. The chart below explains everything.
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Thursday, February 25, 2016
TNX Doesn't Buy the Rally in SPX Stocks Index / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
It appears that the rally is challenging the 50-day Moving Average at 1944.37. A new high above 1946.70 is not needed to change the Elliott Wave structure back to my original assessment, that Wave (2) peaked on February 1. I have re-oriented the chart to show this. The Broadening formation views this as an extension of point 5.
Note the trading bands are contracting, suggesting a large move ahead. The next step in this scenario is a potentially sharp decline. The Cycles Model calls for a probable decline through Friday, March 4, if I am reading the Model correctly. There may be a brief extension into Monday, March 7. The Cycles Model has kept my orientation fairly close to what the market has been delivering.
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Thursday, February 25, 2016
Elliott Wave Analysis On German DAX And SP500 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Gregor_Horvat
German DAX
Bounce on DAX to 9400 today looks like a clear three wave move, so it can be wave b as part of incomplete corrective set-back. That said, we need to be aware of another leg down, ideally into gap area since Feb 15 where index may turn bullish again after the gap is filled. At the moment it can be too soon for any bullish continuation, but we will look for reversal signs for sure, once our support levels are meet.
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Thursday, February 25, 2016
Shanghai Stock Market First... Are we Next? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Good Morning!
Yesterday’s call that the Shanghai Index had topped must have been prescient. Overnight it dropped 187.65, or 6.41%. This puts the index just above a potential Cup with Handle formation whose target exceeds the Head & Shoulders formation target.
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Thursday, February 25, 2016
Economic News Gets Worse... Stock Market Sentiment Unwinding.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Jack_Steiman
Lots of bad news for the bulls today as the bull-bear spread blasted up from -13.5% to just -1.0%. A 12.5 move of bullish behavior and thinking. Then to add to the bad news we saw the flash ISM Services Report, or the preliminary report, come in below 50.0 for the first time in three years. Down nearly 4% month over month, which shows a very strong decline in the overall economic activity for our country. The services sector had been holding up better than the manufacturing sector, but it is clearly playing catch up. This is the worst possible news for our economy, to be losing the last piece of hope for an economic recovery. Bad news on sentiment. Bad news on our economy in a very big way, and the result is a nice blast higher in our markets after gapping down nicely and running lower after we opened up for trading. Would you expect anything else?
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Wednesday, February 24, 2016
Stock Market Indices Reverses to Downside on Solid Sell-Off / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Harry_Boxer
It was turn-around Tuesday as the indices reversed yesterday’s gains and had a solid sell off. The day started out with a gap down, they formed early bear wedges that created a 5-wave morning move, late morning and early afternoon they coiled, and then consolidated, trying to test support. On a couple of occasions they were successful, but in the afternoon they came down, bounced, went lower, and nearly closed at the lows for the day.
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Tuesday, February 23, 2016
Stock Market Calm Before the Storm? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Good Morning!
It was fascinating (to me, at least) to see all of the hourly pivots being hit yesterday as equities made their rally high. The top Pivot was at 13:43 hours in which the 1946.70 high was made.
The Premarket is mixed while the futures show a clear reversal pattern overnight. All the overseas markets are down in overnight trading, but not significantly.
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Tuesday, February 23, 2016
Stock Market Running Up....Sentiment Playing Out...What Next? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Jack_Steiman
The relentless run up is continuing as the bulls are letting the bears know they'll be remaining busy for a while. Now we will have to deal with some selling soon as the short-term sixty-minute charts are overbought and flashing negative divergences. Sometimes, in very bullish environments the negative divergences can be worked out through time instead of price, meaning you unwind those divergences and overbought with very little price erosion. If that happens, you know you've transferred the energy from bear to bull. In bullish environments time works off the overbought conditions. In bearish environments it's price that works its way lower from any push up on those oscillators. We'll know very shortly which way this will work itself out. We saw the market futures turn north last night after Europe gapped up and kept on running higher. We opened strongly and closed very nicely, which now means the bulls have four large gap ups that kept running higher all day.
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Tuesday, February 23, 2016
Stock Market to Fall 16% More into March 11th? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Brad_Gudgeon
The chart below shows that the SPX 1650 level may be next and sooner than most think. Looking at this 2 hour chart of the SPX, we can see a similarity to the December 27, 2015 top. The move up from February 19 into February 22 is stronger by 27.7% suggesting a harder move down this time than in late December into January 20th. March 11th is nearby to the Bradley March 10th date. March 11th is the anniversary of the 2015 20 week low, is 20 TD's from the January 20th low, and the 7/28 week cycle low from August 24th, 2015. The 1650 level beckons.
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Monday, February 22, 2016
Bonds Aren't Buying the Stock Market Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Bonds aren’t buying the rally in stocks. ZeroHedge reports, “While the algos are closely following every momentum-generating uptick in global equities on the back of yet another short squeeze in crude, one asset class that has been roundly ignored are Treasurys, which have refused to follow the equity euphoria and have in fact roundtripped today's entire risk on move, suggesting that once again, "bonds aren't buying it."