Category: Unemployment
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Thursday, February 29, 2024
US Unemployment is a Fake Statistic / Economics / Unemployment
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Whilst everyone focuses on the unemployment rate as a gauge for economic activity, however the statistic has been engineered to the extent to become meaningless as shadow stats illustrates.
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Tuesday, December 17, 2019
ONS UK Unemployment Statistics Paint a FAKE Picture of Falling Unemployment / Economics / Unemployment
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Today the ONS published it's latest labour market statistics which include headline grabbing news that unemployment has continued to fall to an historic low of just 1.28 million as the below graph illustrates, far below the trough before the financial crisis hit Britain. However there is a fly in the ointment of this rosy picture that the Governments economic propaganda arm (ONS is painting which is that official unemployment statistics have been manipulated lower by successive governments all the way to the point that on their own they are pretty much meaningless. For instance there are over 8.6 million people of working age who are ECONOMICALLY INACTIVE, that's another word for UNEMPLOYED!
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Friday, December 06, 2019
What Fake UK Unemployment Statistics Predict for General Election Result 2019 / Economics / Unemployment
By: Nadeem_Walayat
It's the economy stupid! The party in government tends to lose elections to the opposition on the basis of where the economy stands at the time of the general election. So whilst Boris Johnson's "Get Brexit Done" headline grabbing mantra sounds like it could deliver the Tories enough votes to win. However, if the economy is on the slide then all slogans and promises will be ignored, much as was the case for Theresa May's 2017 all about getting Brexit done election campaign.
So the focus of this analysis is where the economy stands and it's direction of travel relative to where economy stood in the run up to the June 2017 General Election as one of the 9 key election forecasting lessons learned from the outcome of the 2017 general election.
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Friday, May 03, 2019
UK Real Unemployment Rate is 5.5 million - Britains Benefits Culture / Economics / Unemployment
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This analysis directly continues on from (UK Demographics Crisis Silver Lining of Sorts) which is part of a series that aims to conclude in a new multi-year trend forecast for UK house prices. But first a recap of my analysis to date that so far suggests to ignore mainstream press hysteria that warns of impending doom for Britains housing market, encouraged no less than the Government and Bank of England which warn to expect a 30% CRASH in UK house prices should the UK LEAVE the EU without a deal.
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Friday, June 08, 2018
U.S. Jobless Claims Lower than Expected / Economics / Unemployment
By: Donald_W_Dony
The U.S. Unemployment rate just posted a new 45-year low. That is good news for the S&P 500.
The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell by 1 thousand to 222 thousand in the week ending June 2. This occurred after the previous week's revised level of 223 thousand and below the market's expectations
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Saturday, October 14, 2017
Is U.S. Unemployment at the Bottom? / Economics / Unemployment
By: Donald_W_Dony
The U.S. Unemployment rate and the markets have a direct opposite connection to each other. When one goes down (unemployment), the other (stock market) goes up.
The opposite is also true.
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Friday, March 10, 2017
American Men Are Giving Up on Jobs / Economics / Unemployment
By: John_Mauldin
I’ve written about this before, but there are 10 million American males between the age of 24 and 64 who have literally dropped out of the workforce. It means that they have given up on finding a job or are simply not looking.
But, focusing on just one subset among those who are 24–64, we see that white working-class males’ labor force participation rate has dropped to 59%.
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Tuesday, December 20, 2016
Warnings We’ll Wish We’d Heeded — Plunging US Jobless Claims / Economics / Unemployment
By: John_Rubino
It’s the same story every time: Imbalances build up during a recovery but most investors ignore them because good times have become the new normal and the uptrend seems bullet-proof. Then things fall apart and everyone wishes they’d paid attention to history.
This series will cover a few of the more glaring examples of late-cycle myopia, beginning with jobless claims, i.e., the number of people joining the ranks of the unemployed.
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Tuesday, February 09, 2016
One Chart Depicts Economic Recovery 100% Fiction / Economics / Unemployment
By: Sol_Palha
Anything I've ever done that ultimately was worthwhile... initially scared me to death.Betty Bender
They say a picture is worth a thousand words and this chart is probably worth a lot more. It illustrates how the BLS has been lying through its teeth over the past seven years. Then again anyone with a grain of common sense could figure out that the retarded methodology the BLS employs is bound to create the illusion that all is well. They purposely discount individuals that have stopped looking for work in coming up with their unemployment numbers. Hence, the 5% figure is not an accurate reflection of the landscape. The chart below provides a more realistic view of the unemployed in the U.S and in some areas we believe that the numbers could be more than 30%
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Saturday, August 08, 2015
U.S. Official Unemployment 5.3%, Real 10.4% / Economics / Unemployment
By: Mike_Shedlock
Initial Reaction
Today's job report (for July) once again showed a divergence between the household survey and the establishment survey.
The divergence was not as large as last month, but was in the same usual direction: The establishment survey was stronger than the household survey.
Household survey employment rose by 101,000 while the establishment survey shows an increase of 215,000 jobs.
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Thursday, February 19, 2015
UK Unemployment Plunge Conservative Election Boost / Economics / Unemployment
By: Nadeem_Walayat
UK unemployment falls to its lowest level for 6 years as statistics for the 3 months to December 2014 register a drop of 97,000 claimants to 1.86 million, standing at 5.7% of the workforce, and down nearly 1/2 million on a year ago that illustrates a continuing strong trend in the reduction of domestic unemployment that is set against approx 700,000 jobs created. The difference being that these jobs have gone to migrant workers from firstly Eastern Europe and then the bankrupting PIIGS nations with Spain, Portugal and Greece that have lost many of their brightest to the likes of Britain's NHS, so if your puzzled by the origins of your accented NHS consultant then you may find that they are probably Greek.
Tuesday, December 09, 2014
Unemployment in America: Another Fabricated Jobs Report / Politics / Unemployment
By: Paul_Craig_Roberts
Friday’s payroll jobs report is another government fairy tale or, to avoid polite euphemisms, another packet of lies just like the House of Representatives Resolution against Russia and every other statement that comes out of Washington.
Washington is averse to truth. Washington can only lie.
First let’s pretend that the 321,000 new jobs that the government claims the economy created in November are true, and let’s see where these jobs are.
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Saturday, November 29, 2014
US Unemployment At Lowest Rate Since 2009 / Economics / Unemployment
By: Boris_Dzhingarov
After painstaking growth, complaints of padded figures, and fears of underemployment among those lucky enough to have jobs, America finally sees its national unemployment rates in the 5.2-5.5% range. At this level, the Federal Reserve considers the market to represent full employment, with very nearly all of those actively desiring employment working or reasonably able to find work. An added bonus for government forecasters is that this rate of improvement is in keeping with their predictions, but comes a full quarter early.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, October 11, 2014
U.S. 5.5% Unemployment Rate Represents Full Employment / Economics / Unemployment
By: EconMatters
3-5 Months Ahead of Fed Forecasts for Employment Levels
What has sort of gone under the radar recently with Ebola fear mongering, Europe throwing a tizzy fit until they get their ‘stimulus fix’ and everything is miraculously all well again, profit taking in front of earning`s season here in the US, and oil on one of its customary $20 trading range moves to the downside is that last Friday the unemployment rate dropped to 5.9% due to another robust employment report and several upward revisions to prior month`s reports. Yes we are in the 5`s for unemployment, well ahead of everyone`s forecasts including the Federal Reserve.
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Thursday, October 09, 2014
Youth Unemployment - The Disgrace of Sacrificing a Generation / Economics / Unemployment
By: Raul_I_Meijer
Would you like to know how bankrupt our societies are? Financially AND morally? Before you say yes, please do acknowledge that you too ar eparty to the bankruptcy. Even if you have means, or you have no debt, or you’re under 25, you’re still letting it happen. And you may have tons of reasons or excuses for that, but you’re still letting it happen.
Our financial and moral bankruptcy shows – arguably – nowhere better than in the way we treat our children. A favorite theme of mine is that any parent you ask will swear to God and cross and hope to die that they love their kids to death, but the facts say otherwise. We only love them as far as the tips of our noses, or as far as the curb. That means you too.
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Tuesday, August 12, 2014
The De-industrialization of America: “True U.S. Unemployment Rate is 23.2%” / Economics / Unemployment
By: Paul_Craig_Roberts
On January 6, 2004, Paul Craig Roberts and US Senator Charles Schumer published a jointly written article on the op-ed page of the New York Times titled “Second Thoughts on Free Trade.” The article pointed out that the US had entered a new economic era in which American workers face “direct global competition at almost every job level–from the machinist to the software engineer to the Wall Street analyst. Any worker whose job does not require daily face-to-face interaction is now in jeopardy of being replaced by a lower-paid equally skilled worker thousands of miles away. American jobs are being lost not to competition from foreign companies, but to multinational corporations that are cutting costs by shifting operations to low-wage countries.” Roberts and Schumer challenged the correctness of economists’ views that jobs off-shoring was merely the operation of mutually beneficial free trade, about which no concerns were warranted.
Tuesday, June 17, 2014
U.S. Unemployment - They’re Lying To Us / Economics / Unemployment
By: John_Rubino
One of the frustrating things about the monthly US jobs report is the way everyone focuses on the wrong number. The headline says “unemployment falls…” which sounds great, while the small print, which almost no one seems to read, explains that most of the improvement is due to people dropping out of the labor force. The number of new jobs created is frequently small or negative.
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Thursday, June 12, 2014
Unemployment and A Tale of Two Financial Crises / Economics / Unemployment
By: MISES
D.W. MacKenzie writes: The latest GDP report indicates a slowdown in overall economic activity in the first quarter of 2014. Apologists for the Obama administration attribute the recent slowdown to unusual winter weather. Some have even suggested that the first-quarter slowdown sets the stage for rapid economic growth for the remainder of this year: there is pent up demand and untapped potential productivity, they claim. Mobilization of unemployed resources and satisfaction of unmet demands could, in the remainder of 2014, translate into a faster annual rate of GDP growth, perhaps 3.5 percent. The flaws of this argument should be obvious. One can just as easily argue that the much larger slowdown of 2008 set the stage for fast growth in the 2009-2013 time frame. The 2008 crisis left us with much greater pent up demand and untapped productivity. Yet the recovery that began in 2009 nearly stalled in 2010 and has been extraordinarily slow. Why has the recovery been so very slow?
Wednesday, January 22, 2014
Welfare, Minimum Wages, and Unemployment / Economics / Unemployment
By: LewRockwell
Gregory Morin writes: Of the various flavors of government interventionism in our lives, the minimum wage is perhaps the most welcomed. It appeals not only to our innate sense of “fairness” but also to our self-interest. Its allure may erroneously lead us to the conclusion that because “it is popular,” ergo “it is right.”
Friday, November 29, 2013
Unemployed and Deployed in America / Economics / Unemployment
By: Jeff_Berwick
Wendy McElroy writes: Unemployment will be a global tipping point in 2014, and America will tip as well. Europe is already panicking about the likelihood of young people rioting in the streets next summer. The 17-nation Eurozone is predicting severe riots due to soaring unemployment, especially among the young. In September, the Eurozone's general unemployment rate was 12.2%; the rate for young workers was 24.1%. According to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, youth unemployment is nearly 60% in Greece, 55% in Spain and 40 percent in Italy and Portugal.