Category: US Dollar
The analysis published under this category are as follows.Wednesday, October 21, 2015
Did USD Just Bottom? Did EUR Just Top? / Currencies / US Dollar
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Late last week -- and then again on Monday -- EURUSD, the world's most traded forex pair, fell sharply. In fact, the euro lost almost 200 pips, or two cents, against the buck.
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Wednesday, October 21, 2015
US Dollar Key Days / Currencies / US Dollar
The next two days are key. If the bounce over the last three days was the start of a new daily cycle then gold will drop down into a hard daily cycle low.
If one the other hand the dollar forms a swing high today and closes significantly back below the 10 DMA and more importantly follows through to the downside tomorrow it will signal that the bounce was a counter trend move and the dollar is going to test the August lows before the cycle bottoms.
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Thursday, October 01, 2015
US Dollar El Peso Colombiano! / Currencies / US Dollar
It was the year 2001 when I first entered the country of Colombia. I crossed over the Rumichaca Bridge which separates Ecuador and Colombia and got the first bus of the day from Ipiales headed for Cali. I'd considered travelling overnight but had thought better of it having been warned about night time robberies along the way.
It wasn't long into my Colombian adventure when things heated up. Around 3 hours into the journey, travelling in some spectacular mountain scenery between the towns of Pasto and Popayan, the bus came to a screeching halt. That was because around five men in military fatigues jumped into the middle of the Panamericana highway pointing their guns at the bus. Here we go!
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Monday, September 14, 2015
U.S. Dollar the Most Lopsided Trade, Implications for Gold, Commodities and Stocks / Currencies / US Dollar
I would say without a doubt the most lopsided trade in the world right now is the long dollar trade. Virtually everyone has become convinced that the dollar is going to 110, 120 or even 160.
Folks when everyone is thinking the same thing … then no one is thinking.
So let’s take a look at this “one way” trade.
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Tuesday, September 01, 2015
What Is The Future For The U.S. Dollar? / Currencies / US Dollar
China, the biggest foreign creditor of the United States, owns a truckload of our government bonds. Over the past several weeks, it’s been selling some of those bonds to prop up their currency, the yuan. This is supposed to signal the end of the dollar. As the Chinese put our bonds out for the bid, interest rates are going to shoot higher, driving down the value of the greenback and making imports unaffordable. At least, that’s what dollar haters have expected for years.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, August 31, 2015
The Most Important Market Chart on The Planet / Currencies / US Dollar
Sorry goldbugs, it is not the gold chart. There are a lot of opinions out there on the US Dollar. Many of them are bearish in the short medium and long term time frames.
So lets see what the Charts are whispering.
With all the volatility this week in markets around the world the US dollar made an interesting move. The long term daily chart below shows the five point rectangle, at the bottom left hand side of the chart, that launched the big breakout and impulse move higher in May of 2014. If you look at reversal point #5 with a question mark on it you'll see the comment I made at the time which I noted, this could be a false breakout to the downside and we might see a big move in the opposite direction, which was up. Keep in mind the chart was much bigger back then and the false breakout also looked much bigger. As you can see that indeed was a false breakout to the downside which led to the impulse move up we found ourselves in until the US dollar topped out earlier this year and has been building out the next consolidation pattern.
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Friday, August 28, 2015
Is this it for U.S. Dollar Bulls? / Currencies / US Dollar
US dollar bulls couldn't have asked for a better scenario -- Just as the USD index (basket of 6 currencies largely weighed vs EUR) was about to test a 3-month trendline support, the currency recovers. And just as EURUSD had broken above its 200-DMA for the first time in 13 months and above its 55-WMA for the first time in 12 months in a matter of 4 days, the single currency crashes back below these key levels later in the same week. But CAD, AUD, NZD and NOK have all outperformed USD thanks to a broad bounce in energy.
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Tuesday, August 25, 2015
Liftoff Setback Leads to U.S. Dollar Pullback / Currencies / US Dollar
The US dollar has experienced a tremendous rally over the last year as the end of quantitative easing and prospect of interest rate normalization led to upside momentum in the currency. Expectations were largely set for a September rate hike with many FOMC voting members forecasting two rate increases before the end of 2015. However, with recent inflation data and the growing emerging market turmoil, the Federal Reserve might be forced to hold off with its most well intentioned plans, sapping downside strength and building the case for a deeper technical pullback in the US dollar index.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, August 15, 2015
The China Dollar Shot Not Heard Around the World / Currencies / US Dollar
China's recent move to devalue the yuan has sent shock waves through the global financial markets and has convinced most observers that a new front in the global currency wars has begun. The move has caused many observes to envision a new round of competitive devaluations around the globe in which the race to the bottom will intensify. In this scenario they envision that the U.S. dollar will solidify its standing as the only strong currency. This misses the point entirely.
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Friday, July 24, 2015
USD Index Rebounds / Currencies / US Dollar
Earlier today, the U.S. Department of Labor showed that the initial jobless claims in the week ending July 18 dropped by 26,000 to 255,000, beating analysts' expectations for a 1,000 drop. In this environment, the USD Index bounced off session's lows and came back above 97. What impact did this move have on the euro, pound and Swiss franc?
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Wednesday, July 22, 2015
US Dollar Breakout / Currencies / US Dollar
The previous Friday's expected cycle low was successful in starting a rally last week in which the US Dollar had its best week since May. DXY gained 1.89% to close at 97.99 above the June 1 high and printed an engulfing bullish candlestick on the weekly chart.
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Friday, July 03, 2015
The U.S. Dollar's 2014-2015 Rally: Wave 3 in Action / Currencies / US Dollar
An excerpt from our free 14-page report shows you how the Elliott Wave Principle can "Boost Your Forex Success"
I always say trading forex markets is like riding a bike -- except that said bike has one flat tire and the ground beneath it is covered in ice.
So why are they so popular, you might ask? In fact, forex is the most liquid market on earth, where trillions of dollars change millions of hands every day.
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Thursday, July 02, 2015
Guaranteed US Dollar Death Dynamics / Currencies / US Dollar
The USDollar is on a collision course with imminent death. It is utterly amazing that so many supposedly smart analysts and highly paid wealth managers cannot see the obvious path on which the USDollar treads, limps, and struts proudly, dangerously, and abusively, suspended by numerous false cables and tethers. The USDollar cannot be sustained in its current form or on its present course. The abuse of its management and stewardship will be told in history books (possibly with certain chapters scribed by the Jackass). The aggressive defense of the USDollar includes criminal activity on a widespread scale never witnessed before. It is a veritable global money war, not so much a global financial crisis. The system, centered upon the USDollar, is collapsing under its own insolvency and corrupt underpinnings amidst the din of war. The truth is almost nowhere to be seen. The USGovt is demanding that allies support the global currency reserve, even though doing so guarantees a financial structure collapse and an economic breakdown. The safe haven is Gold & Silver, in the form of bars & coins, kept secure outside all nations that speak English, and outside nations that are closely allied with the USFed and USDept Treasury which operate like a vast crime syndicate.
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Tuesday, June 30, 2015
U.S. Dollar Final Rally / Currencies / US Dollar
DXY gained 1.46% last week to close at 95.65 back above its 34-dma as well as its mid-June reaction high (a higher high) giving hope to the bulls that the final rally is upon us. Despite the bearish seasonality of July, cycles indicate that the Dollar is set for one "last hurrah" prior to a "summer swoon" a month from now.
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Friday, June 26, 2015
USD Daily, Weekly, Monthly & Conclusions / Currencies / US Dollar
USD has been in correction since the hysterical March top. The daily chart shows a series of lower highs and lower lows that was interrupted last week when USD failed to make a lower low, Hammered and bounced… right to the EMA and SMA 50’s.
So we remain on watch for a) a higher high or b) a lower low. It’s very simple. As it stands, the near-term is bearish until it proves bullish, not the other way around. That is because the existing trend is down (AROON, bottom Panel).
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Thursday, June 18, 2015
USD Rally at Critical Levels / Currencies / US Dollar
One way of grasping the latest tumble in the US dollar is to think of the following:
As expectations of a 2015 Fed hike grew increasingly cemented in the market, traders demanded a higher bar of positive US data performance, especially as macro-normalisation in Europe transitioned into outright progress. Not only most US figures failed to show a sufficient upside surprise since end of April, but business surveys and inflation data from Europe revealed evidence of progress from the ECB's QE program.
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Saturday, June 06, 2015
Japanese Yen Falls to a 17-Year Low -- Watch How It Got There / Currencies / US Dollar
Put differently, USDJPY is now trading at a 17-year high... but will it last?
You'll find many explanations in the news why the U.S. dollar is trading at the highest point against the Japanese yen since 2002. Most of them have one thing in common:
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Tuesday, May 26, 2015
USD Seems Quite Strong Against GBP and JPY / Currencies / US Dollar
Cable is not so aggressively down at the start of this week, but still bearish with no overlaps. We see an impulse in progress towards lower levels, within an extended blue wave (iii).
GBPUSD 1h Elliott Wave Analysis
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Monday, May 18, 2015
The Money Illusion: What This Picasso Tells Us About the Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
MoneyMorning.com Michael E. Lewitt writes: With the purchase of Picasso's Les Femmes d'Alger dans leur appartement (Version O) for $179 million, the world was served up another piece of evidence that money has lost all value.
Some will argue that such a price is justified for such a one-of-a-kind object, but what is really going on is not that the value of art is increasing but that the value of the paper currencies being used to buy it is being destroyed by central banks who print trillions of dollars of money around the clock.
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Friday, May 08, 2015
U.S. Dollar Danger Zone / Currencies / US Dollar
The US dollar has been the world’s reserve currency since Bretton Woods – about 70 years. The power and importance of Middle-East oil and the US economy and military have supported the dollar for about 40 years. Quick story:
- The world buys oil in dollars. (Thank you Saudi Arabia and Kissinger.)
- Therefore the world must purchase (support) dollars to obtain oil.
- The US supports the oil producing nations with military might.
- The oil producing nations collect dollars in exchange for oil and recycle those petrodollars back into US T-bonds and equities thereby supporting the dollar and the US stock and bond markets.