Category: Economic Statistics
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Friday, September 02, 2011
The Great GDP Caper, Consequences of a Fraudulent Statistic / Politics / Economic Statistics
By: Andy_Sutton
Last week the Commerce Department released its revised numbers for Quarter 2 GDP. The results were much less than satisfactory, with annualized ‘growth’ coming in at a pathetic 1.0%. Think of this as an economic stall speed. We know the GDP deflator allows the metric to be overstated to begin with, so it is VERY likely that America has re-entered the ‘great recession’ as it has been dubbed by the media. There are some burning issues in here that need to be discussed and they go way beyond the methodology of how GDP is calculated. I will end with the assertion, backed with output methodology, that is at least as reliable as what the Commerce Dept. offers that we never left the great recession.
Wednesday, August 31, 2011
Can we Trust Government Statistics on the Economy? / Politics / Economic Statistics
By: Gary_Dorsch
Whenever speaking before a Congressional committee, former Fed chief, “Easy” Al Greenspan was fond of saying, “I guess I should warn you. If I turn out to be particularly clear, you’ve probably misunderstood what I’ve said.” His protégé, Fed chief Ben “Bubbles” Bernanke borrowed the script from his mentor, and speaking in the shadow of the majestic Grand Teton mountains, before a symposium of G-20 central bankers, in Jackson Hole, Wyoming on August 26th, - left most his audience wondering what he meant.
Tuesday, August 23, 2011
GDP Statistic Is a Lie, Time for a New Measure of Economic Growth / Economics / Economic Statistics
By: Money_Morning
Martin Hutchinson writes:
Gross domestic product (GDP) is the most commonly used measure of economic growth. But GDP isn't just inaccurate and misleading - it's the contrivance of Keynesian economists seeking to push their own, big-government agenda.
That's right. GDP is a financial ruse - the biggest of the past half-century. And it's time to move past it to another, more accurate measure of economic growth.
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Sunday, July 31, 2011
U.S. Q2 GDP The Numbers Don't Add Up / Economics / Economic Statistics
By: Tony_Pallotta
Q1 2011 GDP was revised one final time from 1.9% to 0.4% and Q2 2011 GDP the first estimate was 1.3%. Before analyzing the data I have one very simple question.
Economic growth slowed during Q2 as acknowledged by the Fed and indicated by regional Fed surveys, ISM, durable goods, etc so how could Q2 GDP be higher than Q1 GDP? That would imply the economy accelerated and clearly that has not happened. In other words just as Q1 2008 was eventually shown as the start of the great recession so will Q2 2011 in subsequent revisions.
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Sunday, June 05, 2011
Bureau of Labor Statistics Playing Old Maid / Politics / Economic Statistics
By: Fred_Sheehan
When my youngest sister was four-years-old, we taught her how to play Old Maid. She learned quickly but played the game like - a four-year-old. When she was dealt the Old Maid, her little thumb would push it a couple of inches above the others in her hand. She did this with a giggle since her maneuver was tricking us (in her 4-year-old mind) into taking the Old Maid. She succeeded; someone would remove it from her hand so that she could say: "Ha, Ha, you have the Old Maid!"
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Thursday, May 26, 2011
U.S. Q1 2011 GDP Revision / Economics / Economic Statistics
By: Tony_Pallotta
The first of two revisions for Q1 2011 Real GDP came in unchanged at 1.8%. Internally though this report is rather concerning.
In a previous post I discussed the increased probability of Q2 GDP contracting (found here) with inventory, government and or trade the most likely sources.
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Tuesday, May 10, 2011
Does Unreal GDP Data Drive Our Economic Policy Choices? / Economics / Economic Statistics
By: John_Mauldin
I am back from Rob Arnott's conference in Laguna Beach, and I must confess that if I had attended it before I wrote last week's e-letter I might have had lower odds on the US political class solving the debt crisis, absent a real economic crisis forcing them to. There were several presentations that made the problems quite clear. It remains a tough issue.
Tuesday, May 10, 2011
U.S. Employment Data Analysis, Clues from Duration of the Work Week / Economics / Economic Statistics
By: Asha_Bangalore
Digging into the details of the April employment data, we found that the latest average weekly workweek numbers tell two different stories. The average workweek was 34.3 hours (see Chart 1) in April. The recent recession ended in June 2009 when workers logged in 33.7 hours; the increase in work hours is noteworthy. But the gain is still short of the longer average work week (34.6 hours) which prevailed at the onset of the recession in December 2007. These numbers suggest that employers will have the discretion to postpone employment because there is wiggle room to raise the number of hours worked before they will need to increase payrolls.
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Saturday, May 07, 2011
Global Economy, PMI, Employment Data and Monetary Policy Review / Economics / Economic Statistics
By: EconGrapher
This week we take a look at the Purchasing Manager Index data for the US and China. Then there's a review of the US employment report, before an overview of the employment data from New Zealand, we then wrap up with a review of some of the key monetary policy decisions over the past week.
Sunday, April 17, 2011
Fake Unemployment and Inflation Figures Sustain the Illusion of an Economic Recovery / Politics / Economic Statistics
By: Joel_S_Hirschhorn
How do the powerful keep the US population dumb and distracted? A key tactic has been using methodologies that produce totally misleading underestimates of key economic factors. First we learned that official unemployment figures are too low by a factor of two. Now, understand that the official rate of inflation hitting consumers is even more inaccurate. You will hear about a low inflation rate of less than 3 percent. In reality, it is closer to 10 percent, according to the highly regarded analysis by John Williams.
Thursday, February 10, 2011
U.S. 9% Unemployment Rate is a Statistical Lie / Economics / Economic Statistics
By: Submissions
Greg Hunter writes: The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the latest unemployment figures last Friday. There was a stunning drop to 9% from 9.4%. How did that happen? Is the economy really getting better or is the government up to its old statistical tricks. According to the mainstream media, the economy is getting better and the so-called recovery is alive and well.
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Sunday, February 06, 2011
If Friday's U.S. Employment Data Confused You... / Economics / Economic Statistics
By: Trader_Mark
... this story via AP should help 'clear' it up. There remains a lot of confusion even by economists who follow this stuff for a living. Essentially the larger story is traditional businesses are not hiring at pace so large swathes of America are either (a) dropping out of the workforce or (b) becoming self employed. Hence the new workers in category b respond affirmatively when the household survey calls and asks "are you working?". Even if working means selling some of those old Beanie Babies on their new fangled Ebay store.
Saturday, February 05, 2011
U.S. Labor Force and Unemployment Statistical BS / Economics / Economic Statistics
By: Mike_Shedlock
I had no idea what to expect in today's jobs report. ADP projected 187,000 jobs but has been wildly off numbers reported by the BLS. Economists expected +146,000 jobs. The actual establishment survey report shows +36,000.
I knew huge revisions and methodology changes were coming this month would make gaming the report a crap-shoot. However, the amazing thing in the jobs report was not the number of jobs, but the statistical sleight-of-hand in the unemployment rate.
Monday, January 10, 2011
Spinning Unemployment Figures in a Collapsing U.S. Empire / Politics / Economic Statistics
By: Paul_Craig_Roberts
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported Friday that the economy gained only 103,000 new jobs in December--not enough to keep up with population growth--but the rate of unemployment (U.3) fell from 9.8% to 9.4%. If you are confused by the report, you are among the many.
Wednesday, December 29, 2010
Bogus Economic Statistics Used as a Coverup Adding Fuel to the Financial Fire / Economics / Economic Statistics
By: Bob_Chapman
Mr. Bernanke, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, a private corporation, would have us believe that, quantitative easing is the only way to save the US economy and to reverse the unemployment problem. He conveniently forgets to tell you that he authored a paper in 1988 with Mr. Michael Baskin that concluded that what Mr. Bernanke is doing with QE does not work. He told watchers of “60 Minutes” that the jobless rate would have been far higher; something like it was in the “Great Depression” at 25%. If Mr. Bernanke had taken time to have his minions do the research, he would have found that U3 at the peak of the “Great Depression” was 25.2% and U6 was 37.6%. As we write U3 is 9.8% and U6 is 17%.
Sunday, November 07, 2010
Fake U.S. Unemployment Data, Rising Poverty in America / Politics / Economic Statistics
By: Paul_Craig_Roberts
If we cannot trust what the government tells us about weapons of mass destruction, terrorist events, and the reasons for its wars and bailouts, can we trust the government’s statement last Friday that the US economy gained 151,000 payroll jobs during October?
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Wednesday, September 22, 2010
Why Government Reports Aren’t the Only Indicators of Economic Health / Economics / Economic Statistics
By: Jared_Levy
When I am not traveling to New York City, Philly or Chicago, I work mostly from my home office. I tend to look out the window while I write and trade. I get a nice view of the Dallas skyline and trees, but I also have a fairly clear view of the neighborhood dry cleaner, whom I have been going to for many years. Over the past year, I have noticed the parking lot fairly empty and the drive-through window not as busy as it used to be.
Wednesday, July 28, 2010
Government Economic Lies, The Grossly Problematic Gross Domestic Product / Economics / Economic Statistics
By: LewRockwell
Richard C.B. Johnsson writes: There might be many other valid concerns about the concept of Gross Domestic Product, but the perhaps most acute one is that one particular component of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) remains on a net basis. How about that, such a widely used and supposedly gross measure has a mix of gross and net components! There can’t be any logical justifications for that at all. Obviously, a net measure should only have net components and a gross measure only have gross components, but mixing gross and net terms seems completely illogical and inconsistent.
Friday, January 08, 2010
Massive 43% Jump in U.S. Emergency Unemployment Benefits, Government Manipulating Data? / Economics / Economic Statistics
By: Mike_Shedlock
I was intrigued by a post by Zero Hedge asking Is The Government Misrepresenting Unemployment By 32%?
Friday, January 08, 2010
The Next Major Bull Market Will Be In Economic Nonsense / Economics / Economic Statistics
By: Graham_Summers
I am not trying to be flippant, nor humorous. Indeed, we in the US will very likely see a massive escalation of propaganda, phony economic data, massaged labor statistics, and the like in 2010.