Category: Economic Recovery
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Tuesday, July 03, 2012
Factories Across the World Shift Gears / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Asha_Bangalore
The US Institute of Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing survey results for June were disappointing; with the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) at 49.7 in June, down from 53.5 in the prior month. This is the first monthly reading below 50.0 since July 2009 (see Chart 1). Index readings above 50 denote an expansion, while those below 50.0 point to a contraction in activity.
Thursday, June 28, 2012
Forget QE3, America Needs a Real Road and Job Stimulus / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: EconMatters
How is the condition of roads that you drive On? Well, the roads that I drive on are so bad that they require a large truck or SUV to navigate at anything close to normal speeds. The potholes are alignment killers, and the horrible patches were slapped on so poorly that they become uneven speed bumps. And I reside in one of the top 5 largest cities in the U.S. with a lot of petro money that has done much better than most of other cities (e.g., the newly bankrupt Stockton, CA) during the financial downturn in the economy. It gets better yet; I'm talking about the better part of town instead of the lower revenue districts. So the question is how did we get to this state? And what are the likely solutions?
Sunday, May 20, 2012
Economic Recovery Is an Illusion When Adjusted or Inflation / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: The_Gold_Report
John Williams, author of the ShadowStats.com newsletter, shines light on his interpretations of the GDP, CPI, unemployment and other government statistics in this exclusive Gold Report interview from the recent Recovery Reality Check conference. Highlights include what the money supply measures tell him and why QE3 will be a hard sell.
The Gold Report: John, at the recent Casey Research Recovery Reality Check conference you described the economic recovery heralded by the Obama administration as an illusion based largely on skewed inflation data. Can you walk us through why, based on your calculations, a recovery is impossible?
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Saturday, April 21, 2012
U.S. Economic Recovery Debate, Still on the Fence? / Politics / Economic Recovery
By: Andy_Sutton
Lost among never-ending talk in the mainstream media about the ‘modest recovery’ being experienced in America have been some rather poignant headlines that are telling a completely different story. I’ve used up many weeks to outline the flaws regarding how our economic growth is measured and suggest more responsible alternatives. I don’t expect Washington to change, however. Those suggestions are for ‘We the People’ as we navigate our own individual situations and seek to do the things necessary in order that we are better prepared to deal with the undeniable consequences of gross mismanagement by our government.
Thursday, April 05, 2012
Don't Catch Economic Recovery Fever / Politics / Economic Recovery
By: Peter_Schiff
Gold has been holding steady in the the $1,600-$1,800 band since early October. This could be attributed to consolidation after last summer's historic run up to $1,895, but I think this wait-and-see attitude reflects current market sentiment toward the US dollar.
Thursday, March 01, 2012
Private Sector vs. Government Sector in the Current Economic Recovery / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Asha_Bangalore
Real GDP of the economy is estimated to have grown at an annual rate of 3.0% in the fourth quarter, an upward revision from the advance estimate of a 2.8% increase. Upward revisions of consumer spending, outlays of structures, residential investment expenditures and government spending more than offset downward revisions of exports and equipment and software spending to yield a slightly higher reading of real GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2011.
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Saturday, February 11, 2012
Widening U.S. Trade Gap Reflects Relative Economic Strength / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Asha_Bangalore
The trade deficit widened to $48.8 billion in December, putting the 2011 trade gap at $558 billion, the largest since 2008. Exports of goods and services advanced 0.7% in December, while imports of goods and services grew 1.3%. The advance estimate of fourth quarter real GDP contains assumptions about the trade deficit in December; the actual trade data for December suggest an upward revision of the 2.8% increase in real GDP, everything else the same.
Friday, January 20, 2012
The U.S. Economic Recovery Is Producing Surprises / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Sy_Harding
In 2008 it was a sure thing the bursting of the real estate bubble, the collapse of the sub-prime mortgage market, the freeze-up of the banking system, the ravages of the ‘Great Recession’, collapse of the auto industry, bailout of mortgage- insurance giant AIG, bankruptcy of General Motors and Chrysler, etc., would wind up with the economy in the next Great Depression.It was then a sure thing that the massive stimulus and bailout efforts would not work, and the costs would bankrupt the country and drop it into third-world economy status.
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Friday, January 20, 2012
The World Economy Stalls; Meanwhile Dubai Bounces Back: So what’s The Secret? / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Andrew_Butter
One of the few interesting things about Dubai is that it serves as a barometer for economic activity that happens largely outside of government and outside of OEDC.
I’m not talking blood diamonds or drug money, Dubai services a region that extends thousands of miles in all directions and the only thing that happens there that doesn’t happen elsewhere and is “illegal” in many of the places it services, is economic freedom. What’s interesting is that you can measure the pulse the global free-market by measuring the pulse of Dubai.
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Saturday, January 07, 2012
Can The U.S. Economic Recovery Overcome Europe’s Drag? / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Sy_Harding
In an October column I wrote, “For the first time this year the trend of U.S. economic reports is potentially bottoming and turning positive. And after being bearish in the spring and summer, I like what I see in the technical charts of many markets. If only we could ignore Europe.”That pretty much still defines the situation as we enter the new year.
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Saturday, October 22, 2011
Why the U.S. Recession Forecasters Are Wrong (For Now) / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Clif_Droke
Speculation over the direction of the economy continues to take center stage. With the presidential election coming up in 2012, the economy will undoubtedly be the central issue on the campaign trail and will receive even more attention than it has up until now. Many analysts have made waves lately in forecasting a "double dip" recession, with at least a couple of high profile analysts claiming the recession has already arrived.
Friday, October 21, 2011
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims, Index of Leading Indicators, Small But Noteworthy Positive Signals / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Asha_Bangalore
Initial jobless claims dropped 6,000 to 403,000 during the week ended October 15. The 4-week moving average of initial jobless claims (403,000) is the lowest since the week ended April 23, 2011. That said, initial jobless claims are still holding at a worrisome level. In other words, a large drop in initial jobless claims is necessary to say that the worst is behind us. Continuing claims, which lag initial claims by one week, rose 25,000 to 3.719 million.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, July 23, 2011
U.S. Real GDP in the Economic Current Recovery, How Does it Compare? / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Asha_Bangalore
The current economic recovery is eight quarters old. The first estimate of real GDP growth for the second quarter will be published on July 29. Chart 1 is an index chart where real GDP data are set equal to 100 at the trough of each recession and real GDP for subsequent quarters are computed accordingly to enable comparisons of real GDP growth across recoveries. For example, a reading of 104 would mean that real GDP increased 4.0% from the trough. In 2011:Q1, the seventh quarter of economic recovery, real GDP rose 4.95% from the trough of the current recovery. At a similar stage of economic recovery after the 2001 recession, real GDP recorded a 4.88% gain.
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Wednesday, July 13, 2011
The Disintegrating U.S. Economic Recovery / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: John_Kozy
The word 'recover' always has the connotation of "getting back." But who is going to get back what when the economy "recovers"? Few at most. So what does an economic recovery look like? No one knows. The word 'recovery' can not be applied to objects willy-nilly. A sick person goes into the hospital to recover; a broken automobile is taken to a shop to be repaired. Automobiles do not recover. Neither do economies; they can only get better or worse, and specific information is needed to determine which. Few people realize just how close to the edge of disintegration America is. The Congress meets for one purpose and one purpose alone—to get reelected. The political posturing begins the day after each election, while the nation's problems go unaddressed, and our media aid and abet the posturing. Such is America today. This recession/depression will never "recover." Neither will America.
Monday, July 04, 2011
Small Business and the Jobless Economic Recovery / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Fred_Buzzeo
If we listen to most economists, we are told that the recession is over and we are in a period of recovery. In fact, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the official voice on this matter, tells us that the recovery began in June 2009.
Fortunately, most Americans focused on making a living see right through this illusion. For example, a recent New York Times/CBS poll indicates that Americans are becoming increasingly disillusioned with the performance of the US economy. An astonishing 70 percent of respondents said that the country is moving in the wrong direction.
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Saturday, June 18, 2011
U.S. Index of Leading Economic Indicators Suggests Mild Growth / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Asha_Bangalore
The Conference Board's Index of Leading Indicators (LEI) increased 0.8% in May after a 0.4% drop in April. The year-over-year change of the LEI in the second quarter (April-May average) moved up 5.00% after advancing 5.5% in the prior quarter. The recent peak of the year-to-year change of the LEI was 10% in the first quarter of 2010. The year-to-year change of the index since the early months of 2010 has maintained a decelerating trend, implying that only a mildly positive pace of economic growth is likely in the quarters ahead.
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Tuesday, June 14, 2011
Stimulus-fueled Economic Recovery End Game / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Peter_Schiff
Economic data over the past weeks, punctuated by last week's dismal employment reports, confirm the diminishing impact of the stimulus efforts orchestrated by the Obama Administration and the Federal Reserve. In what must be a huge disappointment to Keynesian enthusiasts, the record doses of both monetary and fiscal narcotics did not produce the desired results. In fact, the size and scope of the "recovery" of the past two years was weaker than would have been expected in a typical business cycle recovery without any stimulus whatsoever. Indeed our current recovery is the weakest on record, despite the biggest jolt of government stimulus ever administered.
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Sunday, June 12, 2011
Where Is The Economic Recovery? I Cannot Seem To Find It / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Tony_Pallotta
The only thing worse than being blind is having sight but no vision." - Helen Keller
Possibly the only thing worse than having a serious problem on your hands is when you clearly do not understand the problem. You ignore the data and find an easy scapegoat for why the problem is temporary and will pass. The slowdown in the US economy is not transitory as the Fed chairman states. Hopes for 3-4% GDP growth in the second half of 2011 are simply that, hope.
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Monday, May 23, 2011
U.S. Economic Recovery Faces More Speed Bumps / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Money_Morning
Jon D. Markman writes: Of all the economic news last week, the fall in unemployment claims had the most positive impact. It's great to see them come down, and my work suggests that May is on track for a 275,000 gain in payrolls, which is well above current consensus.
Claims fell by 29,000 to 409,000 last week, the second improvement in a row after a couple of sad-sack weeks that were muddied by special events like a new emergency benefits program in Oregon and the layoffs resulting from the parts shortage in Japan.
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Friday, April 29, 2011
U.S. 2011 Q1 Real GDP Economic Growth One of the Three Smallest Gains of the Recovery / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Asha_Bangalore
Real GDP of the U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of 1.8% in the first quarter of 2011, after a 3.1% increase in the prior quarter. Of the seven quarters of economic growth recorded in the current recovery, the first quarter's performance is one of the three readings which have been below 2.0% (see Chart 1).