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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Category: Stock Market Sentiment

The analysis published under this category are as follows.

Stock-Markets

Sunday, June 13, 2010

Stock Market Investor Sentiment: Lack Of Conviction? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment

By: Guy_Lerner

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleInvestors remain bearish, and buying into last week's weakness continues to be the right play -- so far. However, a positive outcome is far from certain especially since there is an apparent lack of conviction amongst the "smart money". Nonetheless, this is our "fat pitch" especially since we have defined our downside risk and where a failed signal might occur. Despite these concerns this is a dynamic market environment with the potential for big gains.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, June 10, 2010

Moribund Investor Sentiment Is Jeopardizing the U.S. Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment

By: Money_Morning

Jon D. Markman writes: The U.S. stock market is really at a critical juncture right now.

I'm all for being optimistic at the prospect of a super-oversold condition amid rampant pessimism. But bulls need to take charge of the controls of this sputtering plane. But now that they failed to yank the stick higher before the February lows, the bottom is really in danger of falling out.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, May 09, 2010

Stock Market Investor Sentiment: The Great Unwind / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment

By: Guy_Lerner

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWhen you look at investor sentiment for the past week, you must understand that the majority of data was collected and disseminated prior to Thursday's downdraft. While the data may seem stale and not reflective of the end of week events, it should be appreciated how many investors were wrong on this market. We weren't just seeing excessive bullish sentiment prior to this week, we were seeing extreme and excessive bullish sentiment. For example, in the Investors Intelligence data, there were 3 times as many bulls as bears, a reading last seen in December, 2009 and October, 2007.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, April 17, 2010

Stock Market Investor Sentiment, Is it Providing a Warning? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment

By: Sy_Harding

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleInvestor sentiment is known as a contrary indicator. Here’s how that works.

When a market correction is underway investors naturally become increasingly fearful and bearish as prices continue to fall. By the time the correction ends, investor sentiment has reached a high level of fear and bearishness.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, April 04, 2010

Stock Market Investor Sentiment, A Different Look / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment

By: Guy_Lerner

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleVery often when looking at sentiment indicators, many market practitioners view the data as an all or nothing phenomenon. Either we are all in or too extreme in our opinions, and it is in those extremes that market turning points occur. That is how it is suppose to work. But as we have found out in 2009 (like in 1995 and 2003), prices can continue meaningfully higher despite extreme readings in the indicators. It should be obvious that looking for extremes to call turning points in the markets doesn't work all the time.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, March 17, 2010

My YouTube Stock Market Sentiment Index / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment

By: Steven_Vincent

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleI take my trading and market analysis very seriously. But once in a while you have to let your hair down (what's left of it, anyway) and have a little fun.

I had noticed that on YouTube it seemed that bearishly apocalyptic market and economic analysis (most of which should be referred to as "analysis") received far more views than bullish or neutral postings. I also noticed that such videos would receive many concurring comments and favorable ratings while bullish analysis was frequently targeted for denigration.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, March 14, 2010

Stock Market Investor Sentiment: Few Words Needed / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment

By: Guy_Lerner

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWith 3 out of 4 of our measures registering extreme readings, few words are needed to describe investor sentiment this week.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, March 07, 2010

Stock Market Investor Sentiment, Don't Stray Too Far From The Data / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment

By: Guy_Lerner

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleI always have the option of how I present the data. I can be negative or positive in my outlook and tone. But one thing I rarely do is stray too far from the data. I am flexible, but I remain data centric in my approach, and this forms the basis for my trading decisions. In the current market environment we find the sentiment picture to be pretty much what it has been for the last 6 months: the "smart money" is bearish and the "dumb money" remains bullish. Under these conditions, I know that the ascent of prices is likely to slow as either range bound trading will develop or an intermediate term top is imminent.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, March 05, 2010

Financial Markets are Driven by Two Powerful Emotions, Greed and Fear / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment

By: Puru_Saxena

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleA Weighing Machine - “In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run it is a weighing machine’ – Benjamin Graham

BIG PICTURE – The truth is that the financial markets are driven by two powerful emotions – greed and fear.  Essentially, during periods when the market participants are feeling cheerful and optimistic, they end up paying exorbitant prices for mediocre businesses.  On other occasions, when investors are feeling pessimistic about the near-term economic prospects, they price wonderful businesses at absurdly low valuations.  This manic-depressive behaviour has been consistent since the beginning of time and is largely responsible for the wild short-term gyrations in the financial markets.  

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, March 04, 2010

“WALL STREET” the Movie, And What It Means For the Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment

By: Antony_Ganzitti

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleI came across a rather interesting phenomenon recently.  I am an avid observer of price charts and take an unorthodox approach (at times) to trading.  I am a big fan of market cycles, Elliott waves, Fibonacci ratios, patterns, and believe in the all conquering theory that price action is the ultimate key to market success.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, March 01, 2010

Breaking Analysis: Secular Stocks Bull Market Confirmed - VERY Bullish / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment

By: Submissions

Note: It is quite important that you read the bottom section carefully

All indicators, both technical and fundamentals have just confirmed a secular bull market.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, February 21, 2010

Stock Market Investor Sentiment in Bounce Mode / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment

By: Guy_Lerner

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe investor sentiment data is consistent with a market that is in bounce mode.  Following the late January sell off, investors really did not become too bearish.  The subsequent bounce over the past 2 weeks has once again created a sense of complacency across our various metrics.  In light of this, it will be difficult for the major stock indices to climb to new highs.  Despite the recent short term strength, it is still my contention that we will need to go lower before heading meaningfully higher. I discussed the research behind this claim in the article, "Why I Think We Need To Go Lower Before Going Higher".

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, February 14, 2010

Stock Market Investor Sentiment Finally Turns Neutral / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment

By: Guy_Lerner

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleFinally, the "Dumb Money" indicator has turned neutral after spending 28 consecutive weeks in the extreme bullish zone. For those keeping score at home, the S&P500 gained 8.9% over the past 28 weeks. For the sake of comparison, investor sentiment was either bearish or neutral for the 9 weeks following the March 6, 2009 bottom, and over that time, the S&P500 gained 36%. I will leave it to you as to which market environment I want to put my money to work.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, February 12, 2010

Rydex Stock Market Timers Remain Bearish Heading Into Holiday... / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment

By: Guy_Lerner

Figure 1 is a daily chart of the S&P500. The indicator in the lower panel measures the ratio of the amount of assets in the Rydex bullish and leveraged funds relative to those funds that are bearish and leveraged.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, February 04, 2010

Stock Market Bullish Participation Level Slowly Declines / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment

By: Donald_W_Dony

In the February Newsletter, I mentioned that the high level of bullish participation was expected to gradually wane starting in February. The extra high percent (85% to 92%) of stocks on the NYSE Composite trading above their 200-day moving averages was not sustainable. Fledgling bulls markets typically display this high range during the first year and then drift lower into a 80% to 50% band in the second year. The NYSE appears to be following the standard path.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, January 25, 2010

Stock Market Sentiment Major Change Underway / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment

By: Graham_Summers

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleLet’s talk about sentiment.

Last week was the worst market week since March 2009. Similarly, the three-day decline from Wednesday through Friday was the worst three days since March 2009. The market is now officially in the red for 2010. And the persons we’ve identified as market props (Bernanke, Geithner, etc) are now beginning to come under intense fire for their actions.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, January 16, 2010

Stock Market Sentiment Needs Correcting... / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment

By: Jack_Steiman

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThis is what likely needs to happen. I have talked about the short-term risk for some days with the primary trend still being higher. Within those primary trends there comes a time when markets need to pull back lower. That needs to take place when sentiment gets too heavy on the bullish side of things. We now see sentiment readings very close to levels that have caused pullbacks in bull markets just about every time although timing it is virtually impossible. A 37.5% spread as of the week of January 4th and this isn't great news for the bulls although far from a death knell. 37.5% more bulls equals a top soon to come and its possible the top was put in yesterday given some weekly engulfing candles on our Nasdaq/NDX charts (non confirmed on the Dow/S&P 500/Wilshire 5000).

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, January 12, 2010

Rydex Stock Market Timers Long Term View / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment

By: Guy_Lerner

Rarely in this forum have we used the Rydex market timers to guide us in making that intermediate term trading decision. Typically, money flows in and out of their funds relatively easily, and this data set appears better suited for positioning oneself on a daily basis. However, a longer term (i.e., weekly view) has proved fruitful in the past, and this is what is presented in this article.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, January 03, 2010

Stock Market Bullish Investor Sentiment At Tipping Point? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment

By: Guy_Lerner

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleFrom an investor sentiment perspective there is very little to like about the current US equity market. The "dumb money" continues to be bullish to an extreme. The "smart money" is neutral to bearish. Company insiders continue to be relentless in their selling. The Rydex market timers are their most bullish since mid August. With most investors in the bullish camp, at some point the market will reach its tipping point, and it is my expectation that this will be sooner than later. After all, who is left to buy if everyone is so bullish?

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, December 30, 2009

Are Stock Market Sentiment Indicators Useless? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment

By: Guy_Lerner

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAs we have chronicled, investor sentiment has not been a very useful tool for timing the market the past 6 months. The "Dumb Money" indicator has been extremely bullish since the end of July, yet the S&P500 has tacked on - albeit begrudgingly - about 14% since that time. Looking at the sentiment picture from the perspective of company insiders, insider selling has exceeded insider buying by historic amounts since May, and company insiders continue to sell significantly despite the strong gains.

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