Category: Stock Market Sentiment
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Sunday, July 25, 2010
SP-500, GLD and GDX Investor Sentiment Trumps Everything / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
By: John_Townsend
Markets rise when the preponderance of participants are buyers, and fall when the preponderance of participants are sellers. One of the key ways to anticipate the pendulum swings of participant behavior, and therefore price behavior, is to evaluate sentiment. Sentiment, more than fundamentals or technical analysis, trumps everything.
When too many players are on the same side of a trade they eventually find themselves in a crowded position where most everyone around them has the same motivation – to reverse their position when the tide changes.
Friday, July 16, 2010
Stock Market Rydex Bull Bear Investor Sentiment Ratio / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
By: Guy_Lerner
Every week I present the following chart in our sentiment round up. See figure 1. It is the Rydex total bull to bear ratio. The indicator in the lower panel of figure 1 measures all the assets in the Rydex bullish oriented equity funds divided by the sum of assets in the bullish oriented equity funds plus the assets in the bearish oriented equity funds. When the indicator is green, the value is low and there is fear in the market; this is where market bottoms are forged. When the indicator is red, there is complacency in the market. There are too many bulls and this is when market advances stall.
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Friday, July 16, 2010
Investors Intelligence Stock Market Sentiment Indicator, Be Careful What You Wish For / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
By: Guy_Lerner
File this article from Bloomberg under "the be careful what you wish for" column. The article highlights market sentiment data from Investors Intelligence, and for the first time since March, 2009, there are more bearish newsletter writers than bullish ones. While the article wishes this was a good thing, the entirety of the data series would suggest that it is not so simple.
Sunday, June 13, 2010
Stock Market Investor Sentiment: Lack Of Conviction? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
By: Guy_Lerner
Investors remain bearish, and buying into last week's weakness continues to be the right play -- so far. However, a positive outcome is far from certain especially since there is an apparent lack of conviction amongst the "smart money". Nonetheless, this is our "fat pitch" especially since we have defined our downside risk and where a failed signal might occur. Despite these concerns this is a dynamic market environment with the potential for big gains.
Thursday, June 10, 2010
Moribund Investor Sentiment Is Jeopardizing the U.S. Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
By: Money_Morning
Jon D. Markman writes: The U.S. stock market is really at a critical juncture right now.
I'm all for being optimistic at the prospect of a super-oversold condition amid rampant pessimism. But bulls need to take charge of the controls of this sputtering plane. But now that they failed to yank the stick higher before the February lows, the bottom is really in danger of falling out.
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Sunday, May 09, 2010
Stock Market Investor Sentiment: The Great Unwind / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
By: Guy_Lerner
When you look at investor sentiment for the past week, you must understand that the majority of data was collected and disseminated prior to Thursday's downdraft. While the data may seem stale and not reflective of the end of week events, it should be appreciated how many investors were wrong on this market. We weren't just seeing excessive bullish sentiment prior to this week, we were seeing extreme and excessive bullish sentiment. For example, in the Investors Intelligence data, there were 3 times as many bulls as bears, a reading last seen in December, 2009 and October, 2007.
Saturday, April 17, 2010
Stock Market Investor Sentiment, Is it Providing a Warning? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
By: Sy_Harding
Investor sentiment is known as a contrary indicator. Here’s how that works.
When a market correction is underway investors naturally become increasingly fearful and bearish as prices continue to fall. By the time the correction ends, investor sentiment has reached a high level of fear and bearishness.
Sunday, April 04, 2010
Stock Market Investor Sentiment, A Different Look / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
By: Guy_Lerner
Very often when looking at sentiment indicators, many market practitioners view the data as an all or nothing phenomenon. Either we are all in or too extreme in our opinions, and it is in those extremes that market turning points occur. That is how it is suppose to work. But as we have found out in 2009 (like in 1995 and 2003), prices can continue meaningfully higher despite extreme readings in the indicators. It should be obvious that looking for extremes to call turning points in the markets doesn't work all the time.
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
My YouTube Stock Market Sentiment Index / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
By: Steven_Vincent
I take my trading and market analysis very seriously. But once in a while you have to let your hair down (what's left of it, anyway) and have a little fun.
I had noticed that on YouTube it seemed that bearishly apocalyptic market and economic analysis (most of which should be referred to as "analysis") received far more views than bullish or neutral postings. I also noticed that such videos would receive many concurring comments and favorable ratings while bullish analysis was frequently targeted for denigration.
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Sunday, March 14, 2010
Stock Market Investor Sentiment: Few Words Needed / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
By: Guy_Lerner
With 3 out of 4 of our measures registering extreme readings, few words are needed to describe investor sentiment this week.
Sunday, March 07, 2010
Stock Market Investor Sentiment, Don't Stray Too Far From The Data / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
By: Guy_Lerner
I always have the option of how I present the data. I can be negative or positive in my outlook and tone. But one thing I rarely do is stray too far from the data. I am flexible, but I remain data centric in my approach, and this forms the basis for my trading decisions. In the current market environment we find the sentiment picture to be pretty much what it has been for the last 6 months: the "smart money" is bearish and the "dumb money" remains bullish. Under these conditions, I know that the ascent of prices is likely to slow as either range bound trading will develop or an intermediate term top is imminent.
Friday, March 05, 2010
Financial Markets are Driven by Two Powerful Emotions, Greed and Fear / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
By: Puru_Saxena
A Weighing Machine - “In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run it is a weighing machine’ – Benjamin Graham
BIG PICTURE – The truth is that the financial markets are driven by two powerful emotions – greed and fear. Essentially, during periods when the market participants are feeling cheerful and optimistic, they end up paying exorbitant prices for mediocre businesses. On other occasions, when investors are feeling pessimistic about the near-term economic prospects, they price wonderful businesses at absurdly low valuations. This manic-depressive behaviour has been consistent since the beginning of time and is largely responsible for the wild short-term gyrations in the financial markets.
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Thursday, March 04, 2010
“WALL STREET” the Movie, And What It Means For the Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
By: Antony_Ganzitti
I came across a rather interesting phenomenon recently. I am an avid observer of price charts and take an unorthodox approach (at times) to trading. I am a big fan of market cycles, Elliott waves, Fibonacci ratios, patterns, and believe in the all conquering theory that price action is the ultimate key to market success.
Monday, March 01, 2010
Breaking Analysis: Secular Stocks Bull Market Confirmed - VERY Bullish / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
By: Submissions
Note: It is quite important that you read the bottom section carefully
All indicators, both technical and fundamentals have just confirmed a secular bull market.
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Sunday, February 21, 2010
Stock Market Investor Sentiment in Bounce Mode / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
By: Guy_Lerner
The investor sentiment data is consistent with a market that is in bounce mode. Following the late January sell off, investors really did not become too bearish. The subsequent bounce over the past 2 weeks has once again created a sense of complacency across our various metrics. In light of this, it will be difficult for the major stock indices to climb to new highs. Despite the recent short term strength, it is still my contention that we will need to go lower before heading meaningfully higher. I discussed the research behind this claim in the article, "Why I Think We Need To Go Lower Before Going Higher".
Sunday, February 14, 2010
Stock Market Investor Sentiment Finally Turns Neutral / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
By: Guy_Lerner
Finally, the "Dumb Money" indicator has turned neutral after spending 28 consecutive weeks in the extreme bullish zone. For those keeping score at home, the S&P500 gained 8.9% over the past 28 weeks. For the sake of comparison, investor sentiment was either bearish or neutral for the 9 weeks following the March 6, 2009 bottom, and over that time, the S&P500 gained 36%. I will leave it to you as to which market environment I want to put my money to work.
Friday, February 12, 2010
Rydex Stock Market Timers Remain Bearish Heading Into Holiday... / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
By: Guy_Lerner
Figure 1 is a daily chart of the S&P500. The indicator in the lower panel measures the ratio of the amount of assets in the Rydex bullish and leveraged funds relative to those funds that are bearish and leveraged.
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Thursday, February 04, 2010
Stock Market Bullish Participation Level Slowly Declines / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
By: Donald_W_Dony
In the February Newsletter, I mentioned that the high level of bullish participation was expected to gradually wane starting in February. The extra high percent (85% to 92%) of stocks on the NYSE Composite trading above their 200-day moving averages was not sustainable. Fledgling bulls markets typically display this high range during the first year and then drift lower into a 80% to 50% band in the second year. The NYSE appears to be following the standard path.
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Monday, January 25, 2010
Stock Market Sentiment Major Change Underway / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
By: Graham_Summers
Let’s talk about sentiment.
Last week was the worst market week since March 2009. Similarly, the three-day decline from Wednesday through Friday was the worst three days since March 2009. The market is now officially in the red for 2010. And the persons we’ve identified as market props (Bernanke, Geithner, etc) are now beginning to come under intense fire for their actions.
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Saturday, January 16, 2010
Stock Market Sentiment Needs Correcting... / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
By: Jack_Steiman
This is what likely needs to happen. I have talked about the short-term risk for some days with the primary trend still being higher. Within those primary trends there comes a time when markets need to pull back lower. That needs to take place when sentiment gets too heavy on the bullish side of things. We now see sentiment readings very close to levels that have caused pullbacks in bull markets just about every time although timing it is virtually impossible. A 37.5% spread as of the week of January 4th and this isn't great news for the bulls although far from a death knell. 37.5% more bulls equals a top soon to come and its possible the top was put in yesterday given some weekly engulfing candles on our Nasdaq/NDX charts (non confirmed on the Dow/S&P 500/Wilshire 5000).