Category: Stock Index Trading
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Sunday, May 10, 2009
The Stock Market "Bull or Bear" Debate Will Be Resolved Soon / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
By: The_BullBear
The transition from the Fear trade to the Inflation trade is in progress.
SUMMARY
Markets are nearing a resolution which is graphically illustrated by the relationship between the 50 and the 200 EMA. Fundamentally, the economic news flow will either continue to support the recovery thesis or we will see renewed deterioration. The author's expectation is that the fundamentals will continue to show gradual improvement and the markets will manifest this with a bullish crossover of the 50 and 200 EMA.
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Friday, May 08, 2009
Bank Stress Test Results...Do you Believe the Stock Market Rally? / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
By: INO
Since my return from holiday, I have been scratching my head wondering why the market (in this case the S&P) has moved so high for little or no reason. The economy still appears to be very much on the defensive with unemployment rising and the business environment still on a slippery slope.
Thursday, May 07, 2009
Stock Market Rally a Symmetrical Correction or Filling the Gaps? / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
By: Chris_Ciovacco
It is always important to understand both the bullish and bearish case. The next step is to have game plans for both outcomes. Positive signals are coming from markets around the globe and from numerous asset classes. We all know the bearish case - we are overdue for a correction, financial crisis, etc. The bullish case is based on improving fundamentals and improving technicals. Chart gaps are part of a potentially bullish technical picture. Gaps exist above several markets - gaps that could be filled before or after a correction.
Thursday, May 07, 2009
Correction in Progress for the S&P 500 Index / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
By: Mike_Paulenoff
In classic technical fashion, this AM the e-Mini S&P 500 (e-SPM) spiked about 1% above the top of its Apr.-May channel (920) from where it reversed to the downside back beneath the confines of the upper channel line, which much more often than not, is a signal that the most recent upward traverse across the channel is complete- and that a correction already is in progress. The peak at 929.50 ended the upleg from the 4/27 pivot low at 838.50. Since the earlier recovery high, the e-SPM has reversed and declined to an intraday low so far at 908.50.
Thursday, May 07, 2009
Stock Market Strong as a Bull, or Overbought? / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
By: Marty_Chenard
If you look back 22 months, to July 2007, there have been 4 occasions where the 30 day Relative Strength has been 58 or higher.
Those occasions are on the chart below.
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Thursday, May 07, 2009
Stock Market Indices Hold Support and Continue Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
By: Harry_Boxer
The stock market indices snapped back today and closed with solid gains after a very steep morning sell-off. They came back with a vengeance in a 3-wave rally that saw them reach new highs on the S&P 500 at 920 with about an hour to go. At that point the Nasdaq 100 failed to reach its highs and they sold off, but held the intraday trendlines and snapped back in the last 10-15 minutes to closer higher.
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Tuesday, May 05, 2009
Late Rally Sharply Reduces Stock Market Losses / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
By: Harry_Boxer
The markets had a slightly lower session today in what looked like a consolidation day, as support was tested severely on two occasions and held, resulting in a late sharp rally back on the indices over the last hour, sharply reducing the losses.
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Monday, May 04, 2009
Stocks Two-Month Rally Rolls On / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
By: Harry_Boxer
The stock market indices started off the week with a bang. There was a big gap up at the beginning, a very strong follow on rally, a mid-day consolidation, and a strong afternoon thrust especially on the S&P 500. Despite the fact that the Nasdaq 100 trailed, by the end of the day it caught on and they closed at the highs for the day going on both indices as well as the Dow.
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Monday, May 04, 2009
Stock Market Rally Facing True Test of Trend / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
By: Captain_Hook
That’s what the stock market faces this coming week with technicals now sufficiently overbought to allow for a true test of the trend. Those who do not study history or cycles are interested to find out the nature of the beast. They are asking themselves, ‘is this a new bull market?’ Based on the way open interest put / call ratios of the major US indices are climbing higher, where I will be showing you updated post-expiry pictures later this week to confirm this thinking, even if the put buying were primarily attributable to hedging, as it stands right now the sentiment related verdict is one of skepticism buy and large, which of course provides the ‘wall of worry’ for stocks to climb, as described in detail last week
Monday, May 04, 2009
Stock Market Close over S&P 875 Warrants Extreme Caution Going Forward / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
By: Jack_Steiman
So why the caution? Simple. The best of the rally is over with for starters. Two, you can't count a close at 877 a true breakout. When you break out you want to see the market put some distance away from the breakout level and two points on an eight hundred index does not qualify as distance. It's still very tenuous. If we can stay above 875 for another day it opens the door for a move to the January gap down at 918. This would be an area for which the market would be very tired, overbought and at extremely tough resistance.
Saturday, May 02, 2009
Stock Market Bulls Fail to Capitalize / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
By: Mike_Paulenoff
The most interesting technical “event” of Friday for me was watching the S&P 500 e-mini futures chart violate what I thought was key near-term support at 864.00-863.50 but fail to follow-through to the downside. The bears could press only to 862.50 before the selling dried up. That is one of those “uh oh” moments technically. Where were the sellers? When they did not appear, I braced myself for an upside explosion – to make the new shorts pay a price – but guess what? The bulls did not, or could not, generate the explosive upside that I would have expected on the first Friday of a new month.
Saturday, May 02, 2009
Stock Market Late Snapback Closes Indices in the Plus Column / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
By: Harry_Boxer
The indices ended the week with another gain. The day started out with a move down that saw the indices slightly take out support, but no follow-through led to a strong 3-wave rally back that reached the session highs by mid-day. They pulled down steadily in the afternoon, tested initial support, but were not able to follow-through to the downside. A last half-hour snap back brought them back sharply, closing them in the plus column.
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Friday, May 01, 2009
Volatile Stock Market Session Ends Narrowly Mixed / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
By: Harry_Boxer
The indices certainly had some volatility on Thursday, up sharply in the morning and down sharply in the afternoon, taking back all of the gains and then some, closing mixed on the indices at the end of the day.
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Thursday, April 30, 2009
Stock Market S&P 500 Index Internals / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
By: Richard_Shaw
The S&P 500 (proxies SPY and IVV) staged an impressive rally today in the face of the worst GDP drop in 50 years for the first quarter, and the possibility of the second quarter being adversely impacted by a flu pandemic (now level 4 of 5).
Thursday, April 30, 2009
Stock Market Another Solid Up-Session / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
By: Harry_Boxer
The indices had another solid up-session, although they came way off their highs in the last hour after the FOMC announcement's brief spike-up rally.
The day started out with a gap up. They motored strongly all morning, backed and filled mid-day but held support, and then came on after the FOMC meeting, spiked up to 1398 on the Nasdaq 100 and up to 882 on the S&P 500, right near our overhead resistance levels, and then came down in a sharp 5-wave decline in the last hour, bouncing in the last 5 minutes to take back some of the losses.
Tuesday, April 28, 2009
Stock Market Indices Edge to the Downside / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
By: Harry_Boxer
The markets were soft today, ending in the negative column only because of a last-hour decline.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, April 28, 2009
Stock Market Mild Sell-Off To Start The Week / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
By: Harry_Boxer
The markets had a down day to start the week, but it wasn't too severe. The day started out with a down move on sharply lower futures, but they immediately started rallying and went into a 5-wave ally on the Nasdaq 100 that saw it jump from 1357 up to 1385 inside of the first hour. The S&P 500 didn't quite cooperate. Despite the fact that the NDX went to new rally highs, the SPX did not, moving from 856 to 868. They rolled steadily over mid-day, retested the lows and bounced in the last hour, but did not break the support lows.
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Tuesday, April 28, 2009
Downward Pressure on the S&P Index / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Let’s notice that the e-Mini S&P 500 has “returned to sender” and is looping down to revisit this morning’s low at 846.75, which if violated should trigger a sharp downside follow-through that has as its target a test of the nearest-term support line, now at 839.50. If the trendline is violated and sustained, then let’s expect even more intensive pressure that presses the e-SPM for a test of critical support at the 4/21 low of 823.00 –- or near 82.75 in the S&P 500 Depository Receipts (AMEX: SPY).Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, April 27, 2009
Analog Comparisons Between Stock Market Indices / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
By: Captain_Hook
Picking things up from the other day, and in an effort to continue being successful investors, we are here today to check the analog comparisons that have proven invaluable in aiding us identify pattern and timing elements in present day stock market movements. You will remember from our discussion on such things Monday that developing an appropriate / realistic ‘big picture’ view and then continuing to monitoring / model ongoing progress / change is key to becoming a successful investor, so here we are continuing this process. And I am happy to report history continues to be our friend in this regard, in knowing where to look, such that pattern and timing elements overlaid with the 1937 / 1938 echo-bubble sequence in the states and post bubble Nikki are running incredibly close matches.
Sunday, April 26, 2009
Stock Market Bulls Remain in Charge as Nasdaq and S&P Act Strong / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
By: Mike_Paulenoff
The PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQQ) continue to act very strong as they make
new recovery highs at 33.93 in an effort to accelerate to the upside away
from the neckline (31.80) of the huge base pattern shown in the attached
daily chart. My next optimal resistance "challenge" for the Q's will occur
along the declining 200 DMA, now at 34.40, on the way to my measured pattern
target zones at 35.00/30 and 37.50/80.