Category: Global Economy
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Thursday, May 25, 2017
5 Trends That Will Shape the Next Decade / Economics / Global Economy
By: John_Mauldin
In a typically ebullient presentation at Mauldin Economics’ 2017 Strategic Investment Conference on Tuesday, author, analyst, and trend-spotter Pippa Malmgren laid out key trends set to shape the early part of the 21st century.
Overall, the future is bright enough to need shades but also sunblock, according to Malmgren. The key thing we need is situational awareness. “Nobody saw the financial crisis, Brexit, or Trump coming,” she said. “I did. Not because I’m smarter than anyone else, but because people insist on looking at the world through a mathematical lens. This is a terrible mistake.”
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Wednesday, April 12, 2017
Map Shows 16 Countries Will Be Hit Hard By The Global Exporters’ Crisis / Economics / Global Economy
By: John_Mauldin
The world is currently in the midst of an exporters' crisis. The stagnation in global consumption levels and decline of commodity prices have led to increased instability and insecurity in countries heavily dependent on exports.
The origins of the exporters’ crisis lie in the economic recessions that the United States and Europe experienced due to the 2008 financial crash. These countries were major consumers of Chinese goods, notably low-cost manufactured products.
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Wednesday, March 29, 2017
The Last G-20 Meeting Marks the End of Free Trade / Economics / Global Economy
By: John_Mauldin
BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN : In the last G-20 meeting, its members agreed to drop the forum’s commitment to free trade at the insistence of the United States. That agreement was reached at one meeting and was contained in a single document—such agreements and documents are far from written in stone.
In spite of that, it must be regarded as a historical moment. Excluding the free trade commitment from the agreement marks a fundamental shift in a concept that has been central to global economics for more than a generation.
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Friday, March 17, 2017
Preserving Order Amid Change in NAFTA, U.S. Sovereignty v. WTO / Economics / Global Economy
By: STRATFOR
By Reva Goujon and Matthew Bey : It took more than a decade and three presidencies, from Ronald Reagan to Bill Clinton, to conceive and craft the North American Free Trade Agreement. Will a single presidency manage to undo the process of North American integration? While the risk is real, the reality may be less dramatic.
Monday, March 06, 2017
Trump's Disruptive Approach to Trade / Economics / Global Economy
By: STRATFOR
A shift in U.S. trade policy that follows the outline presented today to Congress would upend the foundations of global trade as it is currently conducted. The biggest change in the approach that the administration of President Donald Trump may take is its assertion that U.S. sovereignty in trade disputes could empower it to supersede rulings made by the World Trade Organization (WTO).
Wednesday, March 01, 2017
US Drives Global Economic Growth / Economics / Global Economy
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The US is back in the driver seat again as a sustained and growing economic powerhouse – the Trump Economy. Since the November 2016 elections, the US economic data and outlook have been driving investment in US equities as well as select foreign investment opportunities. The reduction in regulations and business friendly Trump administration seems to have unleashed the hoard of cash and opportunity of the past 7+ years. US and foreign business are, again, “wheeling and dealing” with the intent of generating greater profits and more opportunities.
Saturday, February 18, 2017
Not Nearly Enough Economic Growth To Keep Growing / Economics / Global Economy
By: Raul_I_Meijer
It’s amusing to see how views start to converge, at the same time that it’s tiresome to see how long that takes. It’s a good thing that more and more people ‘discover’ how and why austerity, especially in Europe, is such a losing and damaging strategy. It’s just a shame that this happens only after the horses have left the barn and the cows have come home, been fed, bathed, put on lipstick and gone back out to pasture again. Along the same lines, it’s beneficial that the recognition that for a long time economic growth has not been what ‘we’ think it should be, is spreading.
Monday, February 13, 2017
Reinventing the Global Economy Is the Only Way Out / Economics / Global Economy
By: John_Mauldin
As I’ve written previously, central bankers received a lot of criticism over the last year or two as the global economy has stubbornly refused to recover from the Great Recession at anywhere near the rate of past post-recession growth cycles.
Economics has come under fire along with other “establishment” institutions that are perceived as uncaring and out of touch. The criticism grew more intense—and more effective in the past year as Brexit and then the Trump victory occurred.
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Friday, January 20, 2017
Real Leadership Requires True Globalization / Economics / Global Economy
By: Dan_Steinbock
After 2008, world trade, investment and migration have come to a standstill. What the world requires is responsible leadership, which rests on inclusive globalization.
During his first state visit to Switzerland and the World Economic Forum (WEF), President Xi Jinping hoped to inject a positive impetus for the recovery of the world economy.
Amidst rising economic uncertainty and market volatility, Xi offered China's vision on economic growth and free trade in a global economy overshadowed by protectionism.
Tuesday, December 13, 2016
WTO Debacle Heralds the End of Postwar Trade Regime / Economics / Global Economy
By: Dan_Steinbock
“China is not a market economy,” President-elect Donald Trump said in Iowa a few days ago. In the past few months, Trump has also pledged to undo the North-American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), beat back the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), impose huge tariffs on China and Mexico, and rewrite the rules of trade.
Nevertheless, the Obama White House, the EU and Japan beat Trump in the reset of the international trading regime by refusing China its market economy status (MES). The key clause in China’s agreement for joining the World Trade Organization (WTO) expired on Sunday.
Wednesday, December 07, 2016
More Talk About More Economic Growth and More Globalization / Economics / Global Economy
By: Raul_I_Meijer
The world is facing the “first lost decade since the 1860s”, said Bank of England governor Mark Carney this week. Arguably good for soundbite of the day, but the buck stops there. The only way that buck could have kept rolling would have been for Carney to take a critical look at himself and his employer(s), but there was none of that.
The Canadian import governor has no doubts about anything he’s done, or if he does he shows none. Instead he puts the blame for all that’s gone awry, on some -minor- elements of what he think globalization means, not with the phenomenon itself, or his enduring support for, and belief in, it. The problem with that is it’s indeed belief only; he can’t prove an inch of what he says.
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Wednesday, November 23, 2016
The Winners and Losers of a Global Trade War / Economics / Global Economy
By: Harry_Dent
My research in recent months has focused increasingly on how the surprise Brexit vote and Trump’s victory are actually not that surprising after all. They’re a clear sign of a growing number of everyday people rejecting the massive globalization trend that has surged since World War II.The world “shrinking” seemed to be a win-win at first. Countries could focus on what they do best and export to others while importing what they need. And, yes, longer-term that does work, as Adam Smith first espoused in 1776.
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Wednesday, November 23, 2016
How China And Trump Era Will Define Free Trade In Asia Pacific / Economics / Global Economy
By: Dan_Steinbock
After the Trump triumph, US-led free trade plans are shelved, which leaves China an opportunity to redefine trade in Asia Pacific.
During his campaign, President-elect Donald Trump embraced a protectionist stance on trade issues and called the US-led Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) a “disaster.” More recently, he has pledged that the US will quit the TPP on his first day in the White House.
Wednesday, October 26, 2016
Globalization Faces Challenges / Economics / Global Economy
By: John_Browne
For much of the second half of the 20th Century, and even into the new millennium, "Globalization" was the dominant theme used to describe the drift of the world economy. It was widely considered both natural and inevitable that the world economy would continue to integrate and that national boundaries would become less constraining to commerce and culture. And with the exception of the eternal "anti-globalization" protesters, who robotically appeared at large gatherings of world leaders, the benefits of globalization were widely lauded by politicians, corporate leaders and rank and file citizens alike. But a casual glance at the world headlines of 2016 suggests that the belief in globalization has crested, and is now in retreat. What are the consequences of this change?
Wednesday, October 12, 2016
Samsung's Galaxy Battery Just The Tip Of The Iceberg / Economics / Global Economy
By: Gordon_T_Long
Are Central Bankers Crippling The Global Supply Chain?
Gordon T Long and Charles Hugh Smith begin 'pealing the onion' on a deteriorating global supply chain and what the root cause is.
Though the Samsung Galaxy Note 7 battery problem is presently receiving a tremendous amount of media and public attention, what few appreciate is that it is only the tip of the iceberg of cracks in the global supply chained as a result of unintended consequences of central bank monetary policies. In this 35 minute video Gordon T Long and Charles Hugh Smith begin 'pealing the onion' on a deteriorating global supply chain and what the root cause is.
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Tuesday, October 11, 2016
The World Is Turning Dangerously Insular / Economics / Global Economy
By: John_Mauldin
A toxic mix of short-sighted policy and isolationist politics is endangering the global economy.
In his recent talk at the Strategic Investment Conference 2016, David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff argues that there are growing threats looming over the global economy.
He believes that current macroeconomic and political trends could lead to serious problems in China, and especially Europe, in the not too distant future.
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Thursday, September 22, 2016
France and Germany Call to TTIP End Trade Talks with the US / Politics / Global Economy
By: John_Mauldin
BY ANTONIA COLIBASANU : The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) negotiations have failed. The TTIP is the trade agreement between the European Union (EU) and the United States. German Economic Affairs Minister Sigmar Gabriel and French Foreign Trade Minister Matthias Fekl have both called for an end to talks.
This failure confirms our prediction that the EU's power is decaying. Moreover, this turn of events accents the division between Western and Eastern Europe.
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Friday, August 19, 2016
Deglobalization Already Underway — 4 Technologies That Will Speed It Up / Economics / Global Economy
By: John_Mauldin
BY PATRICK WATSON : If we had to describe the last 50 years of economic history in one word, globalization would be high on the list. Thousands of small, independent economies around the world fused into one nearly seamless whole.
The things we use every day—food, clothing, vehicles, furniture, electronic devices, even the materials that compose our homes—now come from far and wide. We don’t even notice. International trade over vast distances is now so normal that we forget it wasn’t always the case.
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Wednesday, August 17, 2016
Welcome to the 3-D Economy / Economics / Global Economy
By: John_Mauldin
BY PATRICK WATSON : Eight years after the Fed went bananas by setting interest rates near zero, the weirdness still hasn’t stopped. In fact, the weird part is how unsurprised we are at the bizarre economic news that comes out every day.
Just one example: Almost half the western world’s outstanding sovereign debt—$12.6 trillion worth—traded at negative yields last week, according to the Financial Times. Investors are buying a guaranteed loss with every trade. Still, they can’t get enough.
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Monday, August 15, 2016
Globalization 2.0 Is Coming to an End / Economics / Global Economy
By: John_Mauldin
I’m not the only free trader who is having second thoughts. Stephen Roach, formerly chief economist at Morgan Stanley, wrote:
Recent trends in global trade are also flashing warning signs. According to the International Monetary Fund, annual growth in the volume of world trade has averaged just 3% over the 2009–2016 period—half the 6% rate from 1980 to 2008. This trend reflects not only the Great Recession, but also an unusually anemic recovery. With world trade shifting to a decidedly lower trajectory, political resistance to globalization has only intensified.
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